Speculation: The Official Bjugstad Thread: Alias Hate and Love not far from each other

[TheImpatientPanther]

Because everything would have to go right for him to hit that.

Just like Karlsson that had 6 goals last year and now has 35+ going from 4th line in CBJ to 1st in VGK....
He's going to be a consistent 35 goal guy?

 

[RainingRats]

Just like Karlsson that had 6 goals last year and now has 35+ going from 4th line in CBJ to 1st in VGK....
He's going to be a consistent 35 goal guy?

What does Karlsson have to do with any of this? Why can't the same be said for Bjugstad? Your point is that someone is putting up career numbers isn't going to repeat it? That applies to Nick B too then.

Sometimes players need opportunities.

Nick has a track record and we've seen him given every opportunity to succeed. Not sure why you keep projecting a 15 game set into next season and think that's reasonable. Just like if we projected the 19 games he didn't score a goal in, into next season.

 

[GrumpyKelly]

The injuries played a huge role no doubt, but I have another theory. Injuries aside, what was the one thing Bjugstad was known for prior to this season? Floating. Lazy half-assed defensive effort, that made him look like a beer league player on most nights. Now what is different this season compared to past seasons? Two things. New coach and the said coach slotting him primarily as a winger. When Boughner was announced as the new coach, he said that he'd watched a lot of tape of Panthers games and had many ideas on how to improve the line-up. Could it be that Boughner was Bjugstad's first NHL coach that told him like it is and he took it to heart to improve (and what an improvement it has been) that part of his game? I always found it weird how Gallant never benched Bjugs, even when he was playing really poorly. Maybe the injuries played a part, that it was a cop out for the coaches not to push him harder.

Bjugstad has definitely become more of an all-around player. He is solid defensively nowadays.

The injuries probably started the whole thing (remember the headaches... ouch) and led to his complete lack of confidence last year. It's been a long road for him and although not scoring as many goals as he used to the effort has been there the whole year.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

What does Karlsson have to do with any of this? Why can't the same be said for Bjugstad? Your point is that someone is putting up career numbers isn't going to repeat it? That applies to Nick B too then.

Sometimes players need opportunities.

Nick has a track record and we've seen him given every opportunity to succeed. Not sure why you keep projecting a 15 game set into next season and think that's reasonable. Just like if we projected the 19 games he didn't score a goal in, into next season.

Because it's not 15 games.....

And you seem to always bring up Nick going goalless in 19 games but hide that Smith had a stretch of 28 games where he had 3 goals....

You have it in your head Smith is capable of consistent 70pt seasons now and Bjugstad can't put up 60-65pts on the top line all because of what? You just said to give players time to shine, well look at what he is doing with it. Both Karlsson and Smith are having career years but you're sold that's what they are going forward....

 

[RainingRats]

Because it's not 15 games.....

And you seem to always bring up Nick going goalless in 19 games but hide that Smith had a stretch of 28 games where he had 3 goals....

You have it in your head Smith is capable of consistent 70pt seasons now and Bjugstad can't put up 60-65pts on the top line all because of what? Both Karlsson and Smith are having career years but you're sold that's what they are going forward....

Not capable of consistent 70 points but more likely to hit this year's totals between the two, than Bjgustad, next season.
Smith was snake bit last season and the stats didn't tell the whole story. He also had a track record of 40-50 points. Only someone who didn't like him, didn't think he'd bounce back. Bjugstad is always around 8 or 9% for shooting. He's not really snake bit, rather he's not a good finisher.

This is going off track. My original point was that Smith is the superior player which I think is definitely true. There's nothing that Bjugstad has done that makes it close.

I also said it's fine to keep Bjugstad on the top line, it's obvious it's working for this team and makes our second line stronger which helps to balance the forward group a bit more. I always have and will continue to see Bjugstad as a middle six winger. Playing on the first line doesn't change that.

 

[Chaos2k7]

2 things.
You can't pencil in "not even rookies in the NHL yet" into the lineup, therefore the guy who's no where near the worst player on team can go.
And secondly, Bjugstad was a raw prospect that needed time and decent coaching/a decent team around him to help develop him. This should have happened a few years ago, but injuries and the teams he played on slowed down his development to a crawl. He is just now being a situation to develop his game, I don't care how old he is.
He doesn't need to be on the top line, as much as some think, to produce. Just look at the hattrick goals. That's how he's produced since came into the league. The rest of his game he can develop, this is what should have happened a few years ago.

So the years under GG, only developed Hubs, Barky and Tro, but not Nick?

 

[Chaos2k7]

I don't think there's anyone here that would say no to trading Bjugs, as long as it makes sense for us. But we can't trade him until we're 100% positive that Borg is ready to step in (potential at the end of the day is just that, potential, we have no idea how that turns out until we actually see him play as a pro) and is an improvement to what Bjugs has brought this season.

Say we trade Bjugstad for a pick/prospect in the offseason (expansion jokes aside, his value has bounced back up nicely after the season he's had, won't bring back a huge return but not a pure salary dump either), one week into 2018-19 we find out Barkov or Trocheck is going to miss half the season. Who's our center replacement at that point? Malgin, who hasn't been that good as a center? No thanks. Borgstrom, the rookie that probably isn't even going to play center unless a scenario like this happens? No thanks. McCann, who's still kind of getting sheltered on the 3rd line? No thanks. I would rather take my chances by putting Bjugstad back to center, with the way he's improved his all-around game. Guys like him that can go up & down the line-up and play wing or center are very valuable in this league.

There is no rush to trade him (unless you're of the camp that thinks he's going to fall flat on his face next season and lose all the value he's built up) and keeping him around is a good safety net to have in case Borg isn't ready. Basically don't trade him just for the sake of trading.

Agree we will have to wait to see if he can take that role right away, but he will be in that position before Nicks contract is up. Not a question of IF, its a question of when.

And yes there are very legitimate concerns that he falls back if he is not on the top line with Barky. Real concerns. He could also play the whole next season there and do even better, but which do you think is more likely based upon 5 years of his career. The career year being the norm?

Barkov on pace for 111 with Bjugstad, lol. Cant make those comments up.

Barkov obviously has been the recepient of the goals bouncing in off Nicks passes etc. lol.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

So the years under GG, only developed Hubs, Barky and Tro, but not Nick?

Injuries.

 

[Chaos2k7]

I assume you mean he is not a top 6 guy, because otherwise that's one hell of a turn around you just did! If players can put 16 points in 17 games just because they are on a line with Barkov, why didn't it happened last season? Why did Barkov's production increase since playing with Bjugstad? Since they are playing together; Barkov is on pace for 111 points, Bjugstad 77, Dadonov on pace for 96. If we can play Barkov with cheap talentless plugs, I see no reason to waste Borgstrom there. Play Sceviour there, since he should be good for +70 points there by your account.

I know you say that Borg and Tippett are more deserving of a 1st line spot than Bjugstad and also, that they have higher upside. But why not play them together? They can drive a line by themselves, since that's one of your main knock on Bjugstad. They'll drive the line together and post+80 points each!!

Dadonov(95)-Barkov(110)-Sceviour(70)
Huby(60)-Trocheck(60)-Malgin(60)
Borg(80)-McCann(70)-Tippett(80)
Mamin-Mack-McGinn

I reckon that by your calculation, this would be the best group of forward in the NHL.

He isnt a bottom 6 guy. Thats why he has only been productive in the top 6 over his entire career. No coincidence that he produces with a Huberdeau or a Barkow, you can say that about a lot of top 6 tweeners they have both lined up with.

Injuries.

But he lost his 2nd line spot straight up to Trocheck two/three years ago while fully healthy.

Selective excuses being pulled around here.

So why was Ekblad so bad last year, with no hope, waiver quality, buyout potential when he was obviously hurt all year?

The guys who bashed Ek are 100% on board the Nick train here.

Smith is a superior player to Bjugstad. Offensively and defensively. Not sure how styles of play matter that much. Yes they're different, one is also not as good. One manages to stay healthy and play special teams, the other not so much.

I'm happy to see Bjugstad produce but let's not pretend he's on the same level as Smith.

Last 5 season point totals
13/14 - 51, 38
14/15 40, 43
15/16 50, 34
16/17 37, 14
17/18 60,38

Throw in PK responsibilities and being good defensively, and it's hard to see how they're on or near the same level.

And I'm not knocking Bjugstad, for all the criticism he gets, and a lot of it is deserved, we're winning with him on the top line, he's producing, and Barkov and Dadonov are putting up nice numbers. He's also not a defensive liability and has made some nice defensive plays lately.

Not even close.

This is the same Smith that lined up on the 2nd line with a center in Trocheck, that doesnt distribute the puck, and has been getting ripped here all year too, whilst Nick still gets a pass.

Same guys ripping Trocheck too.

Because it's not 15 games.....

And you seem to always bring up Nick going goalless in 19 games but hide that Smith had a stretch of 28 games where he had 3 goals....

You have it in your head Smith is capable of consistent 70pt seasons now and Bjugstad can't put up 60-65pts on the top line all because of what? You just said to give players time to shine, well look at what he is doing with it. Both Karlsson and Smith are having career years but you're sold that's what they are going forward....

Because Nick had never and still hasnt ever hit even 60 points. Smitty was much more likely to return to form.

The only way to make Nick productive was feeding him top line. Smitty never needed that to produce.

If Bjuggy gets at least 50-60 more shots....he very likely breaks 20 goals which would be huge for him and us as a team.

He is currently shooting below his career average so he should still see an uptick soon. His current SH% is more likely to increase than it is to decrease in the coming games so that would be huge.

He may be sniffing 50 points also, maybe 47-50.

But he has to outproduce and outpace anything he has ever done to match the regular production of a player he replaced in the top 6 who played a lower line, to even match the up and down career of Smity.

If you want to be really fair he should be judged against Jagr, thats who he replaced in the lineup.

But hand picking the comparisons works better to prove the points you guys like to live and die on.

Also out of the next seven games six are against opponenents that are out of the playoff race.

He should be getting a lot of opportunities against these teams and if he's hot... yeah, I could see him score a lot.

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts...

The injuries played a huge role no doubt, but I have another theory. Injuries aside, what was the one thing Bjugstad was known for prior to this season? Floating. Lazy half-assed defensive effort, that made him look like a beer league player on most nights. Now what is different this season compared to past seasons? Two things. New coach and the said coach slotting him primarily as a winger. When Boughner was announced as the new coach, he said that he'd watched a lot of tape of Panthers games and had many ideas on how to improve the line-up. Could it be that Boughner was Bjugstad's first NHL coach that told him like it is and he took it to heart to improve (and what an improvement it has been) that part of his game? I always found it weird how Gallant never benched Bjugs, even when he was playing really poorly. Maybe the injuries played a part, that it was a cop out for the coaches not to push him harder.

That wont be a positive memory. lol

But GG was reknown on here for his lack of changing the lineup. Throw it out there no matter what.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Not capable of consistent 70 points but more likely to hit this year's totals between the two, than Bjgustad, next season.
Smith was snake bit last season and the stats didn't tell the whole story. He also had a track record of 40-50 points. Only someone who didn't like him, didn't think he'd bounce back. Bjugstad is always around 8 or 9% for shooting. He's not really snake bit, rather he's not a good finisher.

This is going off track. My original point was that Smith is the superior player which I think is definitely true. There's nothing that Bjugstad has done that makes it close.

I also said it's fine to keep Bjugstad on the top line, it's obvious it's working for this team and makes our second line stronger which helps to balance the forward group a bit more. I always have and will continue to see Bjugstad as a middle six winger. Playing on the first line doesn't change that.

Because Nick had never and still hasnt ever hit even 60 points. Smitty was much more likely to return to form.

The only way to make Nick productive was feeding him top line. Smitty never needed that to produce.

I'm pretty sure we all agree Smith is the "better" player but when you start saying words like superior is a stretch.

Both are top 6 players, one just had some unfortunate luck of getting injured. Wish he didn't so the calculations could be truly revealed but my point is both would be capable of 60-65pts on the top line. Both have their pros and cons but the difference isn't as big as some make it seem.

 

[Gentle Man]

But he has to outproduce and outpace anything he has ever done to match the regular production of a player he replaced in the top 6 who played a lower line, to even match the up and down career of Smity.

If you want to be really fair he should be judged against Jagr, thats who he replaced in the lineup.

But hand picking the comparisons works better to prove the points you guys like to live and die on.

Hold up, where did I compare him to Smith here?

And yes, these are the best players Bjugstad has EVER played with. Why should we be surprised he is scoring at a higher rate and can score at a higher rate?

He is shooting a whole percentage point lower than this career average whilst playing with signficantly worse players through the course of his career thus far.

I am not picking and choosing stats. I was only speaking of shooting percentage here, which right now is more likely to go up than down.

 

[RainingRats]

I'm pretty sure we all agree Smith is the "better" player but when you start saying words like superior is a stretch.

Both are top 6 players, one just had some unfortunate luck of getting injured. Wish he didn't so the calculations could be truly revealed but my point is both would be capable of 60-65pts on the top line. Both have their pros and cons but the difference isn't as big as some make it seem.

It's more than the unfortunate luck of getting injured.

 

[KW]

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts...

....we could then rest assured that Borg and Tippett will make the team and pot 50 points a piece, while Bjugstad will regress to sub 10 goals a 20 secondary assists?

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

It's more than the unfortunate luck of getting injured.

For sure. Huberdeau could have easily been stalled or severely hampered by injuries with that freak accident but it went our way. Goes both ways no?
Alright I'm done and I think we both stated our opinions with some agreements and disagreements. Let's focus on the game tonight and getting Bjugstad another hatter so we can come back tomorrow and do it all over again? Deal?

 

[Chaos2k7]

Hold up, where did I compare him to Smith here?

And yes, these are the best players Bjugstad has EVER played with. Why should we be surprised he is scoring at a higher rate and can score at a higher rate?

He is shooting a whole percentage point lower than this career average whilst playing with signficantly worse players through the course of his career thus far.

I am not picking and choosing stats. I was only speaking of shooting percentage here, which right now is more likely to go up than down.

You didnt sorry no multi quote.

No you are choosing to project a stat you think is possible, lets compare the actual facts, those are the things that actually happened.

 

[Chaos2k7]

....we could then rest assured that Borg and Tippett will make the team and pot 50 points a piece, while Bjugstad will regress to sub 10 goals a 20 secondary assists?

Nope we cant, but they also dont project to max out at 50 after 5 years.

Cant compare apples to oranges.

 

[KW]

It's more than the unfortunate luck of getting injured.

What's a bigger factor than back, hand, migraine, concussion - all in a fairy short span?

 

[Chaos2k7]

For sure. Huberdeau could have easily been stalled or severely hampered by injuries with that freak accident but it went our way. Goes both ways no?
Alright I'm done and I think we both stated our opinions with some agreements and disagreements. Let's focus on the game tonight and getting Bjugstad another hatter so we can come back tomorrow and do it all over again? Deal?

Nothing would make me happier.

I want Nick and everyone on the team succeed.

 

[KW]

Nope we cant, but they also dont project to max out at 50 after 5 years.

Cant compare apples to oranges.

Oh really? Why don't you therefore voice your disapproval when people compare Bjugstad to Borg and Tippett?

 

[RainingRats]

What's a bigger factor than back, hand, migraine, concussion - all in a fairy short span?

he's not that good. he's a middle six winger. There's not some 60+ player in Bjugstad, imo, that has only been held back by injuries. it's talent, hockey iq, and effort.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

But he lost his 2nd line spot straight up to Trocheck two/three years ago while fully healthy.

Selective excuses being pulled around here.

So why was Ekblad so bad last year, with no hope, waiver quality, buyout potential when he was obviously hurt all year?

The guys who bashed Ek are 100% on board the Nick train here.

Before you say something like that, you better have your facts straight.
No he did not. Trocheck played well in that role when Bjugstad was injured. And then kept it after Bjugstad came back.
And Ekblad went from playing in a good system under uninterfered with Gallant to interfered with Gallant and then Rowe. He was another guy that was a project, not as much as Nick but still a project, plus being a defenseman means he'll take longer to develop anyways.

 

[Chaos2k7]

Oh really? Why don't you therefore voice your disapproval when people compare Bjugstad to Borg and Tippett?

I do, I think the people penciling in those players to any spots doesnt make sense right now. But somehow its heresy that big Nick isnt being thought of as a long term 1st line piece.

But if you guys think that Borg and Tippett will not be brought along to be top six guys eliminating the need for Nick I dont know what to tell you. Its the exact reason they drafted those guys.

To be top 6 scorers.

I am honestly not sure I would keep Nick above Malgin in the top 6.

You can see the difference in how those players process the game.

Nick has had a nice stretch but he does not see the game at an elite enough level to be a long term Barkov linemate.

 

[Chaos2k7]

Before you say something like that, you better have your facts straight.
No he did not. Trocheck played well in that role when Bjugstad was injured. And then kept it after Bjugstad came back.
And Ekblad went from playing in a good system under uninterfered with Gallant to interfered with Gallant and then Rowe. He was another guy that was a project, not as much as Nick but still a project, plus being a defenseman means he'll take longer to develop anyways.

Not at all, Trocheck took that spot from him with his play on the third line the previous season and beat him out in camp the following season. LOL, facts straight.

#1 overall project. Youngest NHL Dman to some of the scoring feats he did since Bobby Orr. Where do people make this stuff up from?

And yet Nick 5 years in as opposed to a 3rd year Ekblad was given the pass instead.

Bigger project, less upside, less hate.

 

[ShootIt]

But he lost his 2nd line spot straight up to Trocheck two/three years ago while fully healthy.

Selective excuses being pulled around here.

So why was Ekblad so bad last year, with no hope, waiver quality, buyout potential when he was obviously hurt all year?

The guys who bashed Ek are 100% on board the Nick train here.

He lost the #2 center spot after his migraines during the 2015/16 season. Was still the #2 center on 11/29/15 versus the Wings before being shut down for the 12/1/15 game versus the Blues. Never regained it till Trocheck got injured right before the playoffs. The second line was X-Bjugstad-Smith with Pirri and Huberdeau shuffling back and forth between #1 and 2 LW.

It took Bjug a while to look like a NHL player post migraine issues and luckily for us he sort of regained his offensive output in March. Of course he goes head first into the boards in the playoffs to end his season.

The following year he broke his wrist in TC but Trocheck took his game to the next level in the 15/16 season playing on the 3rd and then the 2nd line.

 

[RogerRoger]

Sometimes players need opportunities.
Nick has a track record and we've seen him given every opportunity to succeed. Not sure why you keep projecting a 15 game set into next season and think that's reasonable. Just like if we projected the 19 games he didn't score a goal in, into next season.

Sometimes players need opportunities, I agree. Like the opportunity to play on the wing with Barkov for the first time, right? And what has Bjugstad done with this opportunity?
I don't think people expect him to be a +70 points player next year if he's on the first line. Just like no one expect Barkov to keep this pace and be at 110+ points next season. It's simply that they have been very productive together and some people don't get why it seems like once things go well with this team, it needs to be changed. Espescially changing something that is working.
Who would we change Bjugstad with? Grabner? Send Trocheck packing for Pacc? Tippett? Converting Borgstrom from a center to a winger? Barkov and Trocheck are playing insane minutes because McCann can't be trusted, but we should convert his replacement?

Agree we will have to wait to see if he can take that role right away, but he will be in that position before Nicks contract is up. Not a question of IF, its a question of when.
And yes there are very legitimate concerns that he falls back if he is not on the top line with Barky. Real concerns. He could also play the whole next season there and do even better, but which do you think is more likely based upon 5 years of his career. The career year being the norm?
Barkov on pace for 111 with Bjugstad, lol. Cant make those comments up.
Barkov obviously has been the recepient of the goals bouncing in off Nicks passes etc. lol.

Why do you keep projecting Brogstrom on the wing and not at center where he has played his whole career? Barkov and Tro are playing way too much and Tro's 5v5 numbers have been terrible and it might be because he's playing too much. Borgstrom needs to be at center and be better than McCann. Tippett should have a shot, but he needs to earn it, not have it given to him. His stint this year was bad. So let's not pencil on the first line for next year a guy that can't dominate the OHL just yet.
Crouse was drafted to take a role on the top 6 at RW and we are all seeing how well this is going.