"The McDavid Factor", does it exist?

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

When the Oilers drafted Connor McDavid, there was a ton of talk about how players would line up to sign here and at discounted prices at that. We're 3 years into McDavid's life as an Oiler and I fail to see any signs of this. Our biggest free agent signings were Sekera and Lucic, both of whom are not only overpaid, but overpaid for a long period of time. McDavid and Draisatl themselves signed for fairly large amounts of money, and then there's the likes of Russell...

When Lucic signed here he cited the McDavid Factor... Of course we're in his second year here and his contract already looks like one of the worst in the league...

I have trouble finding any Oiler on the roster that's signed to a discount, especially those signed by our current GM.

And for the record, this isn't a knock on McDavid or the players. It's a knock on management and the bill of goods that was sold to us. Players don't sign with a team because of one player. They either sign because of the money or because of the chance to win. And we don't have the second one available to us right now.

How is anyone going to sell this team to players if they're unable to win anything with the best talent the NHL has to offer?

Click to read more...

 

[StevenF1919]

It doesn't help when your GM is so inept that players have to literally negotiate their contract down because the caphit is too high...

No one is going to take a discount here because as long as Chiarelli is in charge this team isn't winning anything other than draft lotteries.

 

[Canovin]

That's so 2015.

This year it's the Dahlin factor

 

[McGoMcD]

I honestly think it exists. I bet a lot of players would like to come play with him. The problem is Chia is so inept it over comes that factor. He probably didn't like so many of the players that wanted to come cause they weren't tough. He rather would over pay to get Lucic over.

 

[Drivesaitl]

It doesn't appear to exist anywhere near to how it did in the Gretzky era. I always found it amazing how the club could go out and sign top players like Linesman, Nillson, etc who were the top players on their clubs. Nor did we pay handsomely for those players. They wanted to be here, to be part of something truly special here. I mean Ken Linseman was adored in Philly, could have been mayor, and he gave that all up just to be here. Players like Randy Gregg forgo'ed their medical practice for years just to be here.

These are different times, cap times, understood, but what star players are we attracting?

Maybe an argument could be made for Talbot but that one had more to do with Sather.

One would think that if a McD attraction factor existed we wouldn't have had to gift wrap Taylor Hall for a top 4 D.

 

[Weitz]

Agents have said it doesn't matter if Edmonton has McDavid. They need to show they can WIN.

 

[Aerchon]

Obviously there is no McDavid effect. At least yet.

However at the same time your examples are not an indication that things are the opposite.

Lucic was offered more money per year for one year less term. Source Lucic in an interview. Hard to remember but Looch had a good year in LA is considered very dirable and his contact was widely considered fair market value.

Sekera was also reported to be offered more but wanted a no move clause. He absolutely was a fair market UFA signing.

Russell was previously asking for 5 x 5 the year before and 4 x 4 isn't exactly terrible for his age experience and skill set.

Ufa is always "overpriced" in both money and term but that's across the board and our UFA signings are on par with most.

Especially with the way the cap goes up with so many teams all bidding on players it's easy to see how players get bank.

Only teams that have significant tax breaks get players cheaper in ufa.

 

[Soundwave]

I think it works to the extent of mid-tier UFAs and coaching and GMing possibilites.

Every GM or coach would be intrigued with the possibility of having Connor McDavid, so that is a big plus for the Oilers in those areas.

But a big UFA like potentially Tavares? Nah. The Oilers need to be an actually good team IMO for him to consider us.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Obviously there is no McDavid effect. At least yet.

However at the same time your examples are not an indication that things are the opposite.

Lucic was offered more money per year for one year less term. Source Lucic in an interview. Hard to remember but Looch had a good year in LA is considered very dirable and his contact was widely considered fair market value.

Sekera was also reported to be offered more but wanted a no move clause. He absolutely was a fair market UFA signing.

Russell was previously asking for 5 x 5 the year before and 4 x 4 isn't exactly terrible for his age experience and skill set.

Ufa is always "overpriced" in both money and term but that's across the board and our UFA signings are on par with most.

Especially with the way the cap goes up with so many teams all bidding on players it's easy to see how players get bank.

Only teams that have significant tax breaks get players cheaper in ufa.

I think there’s a difference between signing for less than what opposing teams offer and signing at a discount. Lucics contract is in no way a bargain to the Oilers, unless they cut that term in half. Same with Russell’s. Too much money for too long. It sets a bad precedent for future UFAs that sign here. Even Kassian has a crap deal.

 

[Aerchon]

I think there’s a difference between signing for less than what opposing teams offer and signing at a discount. Lucics contract is in no way a bargain to the Oilers, unless they cut that term in half. Same with Russell’s. Too much money for too long. It sets a bad precedent for future UFAs that sign here. Even Kassian has a crap deal.

Certainly not suggesting any of the signings are good. Just normal for UFA.

Biggest mistake about those contracts are the no movement clauses. Russell especially. I don't mind Russell or his contract but that no movement is a real head scratcher.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Certainly not suggesting any of the signings are good. Just normal for UFA.

Biggest mistake about those contracts are the no movement clauses. Russell especially. I don't mind Russell or his contract but that no movement is a real head scratcher.

Those are usually attached to contracts to drive down their price. Just imagine paying those guys even more.

 

[Jumptheshark]

The McDavid factor is only in fans heads

many people on this board still believe people will sign with the oilers for less money

we have no evidence--with Lucic it looks like he got the same year offer the habs offered just with one more year

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

we traded gretzky

 

[MoneyGuy]

we traded gretzky

^sold

 

[boredem]

Just put yourself in their shoes, if you were a UFA what would you want? For me it would be a Stanley Cup and money. I think if we would have made the playoffs again this year I would look at the Oilers as a good destination. But now if I was a UFA this summer they would be very low on my list unless they offered me way more money than anyone else. Last year just looks like a fluke so that's going to hurt us I think.

Also taxes might be a factor for the money side, no income tax for a few states compared to Alberta taxes means we probably have to pay a bit more (admittedly I know very little about how this works with pay in the NHL, I've just heard it mentioned before on a few hockey podcasts)

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I don't think we should focus too much on the McDavid factor. How many high priced free agents truly work out? We got the 2 biggest free agents 2 years in a row in Sekera and Lucic and most people already want to get rid of them.

Say its a guy like Tavares or Karlsson. So what? We can't afford them anyways without gutting our depth. This team needs to focus on the 3 things that Chiarelli does best

1) Drafting and developing a young core around Connor.
2) Bringing in cheap guys on 1 year deals like he did with Russel and tried to with Versteeg. The key is to NOT get sucked in to longer term deals after.
3) Small trades. Kassian, Maroon, Aberg etc.

 

[Mr Positive]

players would rather play for us with McDavid than if we didn't have him. That's pretty obvious, if nothing else just because we will win games because of him. I don't think we're really seen a situation where the McDavid factor was truly tested or not. Arguably, Sekera signing was because of the McDavid factor considering how sought after he was at the time. I also don't see how something like the Lucic contract doesn't get attached to some McDavid factor just because the contract is now a bad one. That doesn't change the likely fact that he would not have come here if not for McDavid.

We'll see how situations like OEL and Karlsson play out. I'd guess both these guys would like to play with McDavid. If either are not staying with their clubs I'd hope that the McDavid factor is real. We'll see.

 

[belair]

To an extent I don't think there's really been an instance other than Lucic, in year 2 where it's been blatantly obvious that there has been a spot next to #97 available for a UFA to earn. This past summer we were looking at a Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl top line that was the hottest line in hockey. We were looking to fill depth roles. This summer is really the first year where both his RW and LW are potentially available.

 

[McBaevid]

Sekera and Lucic were the two biggest FAs of the last two years, and they both said they signed because of McDavid

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

If it exists, I think we'll see it next summer. Doughty, Karlsson, OEL, McDonagh, Seguin, Skinner, Duchene, Panarin, Pavelski, Couture, Wheeler, Pacioretty, Simmonds etc. are all possible UFAs, and you have to think at least one will see the draw in playing with 97- especially if he finds that next level and hits 120+ points in 2018-19.

 

[mintmint]

More like the Chiareli factor

 

[Spawn]

Sekera and Lucic were the two biggest FAs of the last two years, and they both said they signed because of McDavid

This is true.

I think where people were mistaken was in the hope that we'd be able to sign these UFAs for less than market value in order to play with McDavid.

Free agents might be willing to sign here, but they aren't going to sign for significantly less than market value. And if the cap era has taught us anything it's that "market value" for big name free agents rarely ends up being worth it in the long haul. Chiarelli blew our free agency wad in his first couple seasons here on guys who can be decent contributors but aren't the type of difference maker you'd hope for the kind of money they are making.

Honestly even before McDavid the Oilers weren't that bad at attracting free agents. It's just a market that so rarely pans out.

 

[belair]

This is true.

I think where people were mistaken was in the hope that we'd be able to sign these UFAs for less than market value in order to play with McDavid.

Free agents might be willing to sign here, but they aren't going to sign for significantly less than market value. And if the cap era has taught us anything it's that "market value" for big name free agents rarely ends up being worth it in the long haul. Chiarelli blew our free agency wad in his first couple seasons here on guys who can be decent contributors but aren't the type of difference maker you'd hope for the kind of money they are making.

Honestly even before McDavid the Oilers weren't that bad at attracting free agents. It's just a market that so rarely pans out.

Do the guys you're talking about who actually change a team drastically even make it to UFA anymore? Markets have been relatively weak in recent years. Though you're dead on when you say there's a ton of bad money our there on the FA market. If you're building a significant part of your team through FA, you're running in to cap trouble one way or another. Those sweetheart deals just aren't realistic.

I think the 'McDavid factor' falls in the line of getting a thirty-something veteran looking to reignite his offensive numbers hoping to get one last payday. Or a former high draft pick who hasn't quite found the success he'd envisioned as the kind of success stories you'd find as those actual value deals. Definitely not established talents.

 

[soothsayer]

So I'm the only one who remembers Jussi Jokinen around here? Never change, HF Boards.

 

[Spawn]

If it exists, I think we'll see it next summer. Doughty, Karlsson, OEL, McDonagh, Seguin, Skinner, Duchene, Panarin, Pavelski, Couture, Wheeler, Pacioretty, Simmonds etc. are all possible UFAs, and you have to think at least one will see the draw in playing with 97- especially if he finds that next level and hits 120+ points in 2018-19.

UFA market always looks great a year out. Most of these guys will end up getting either re-signed or traded to a team they will sign with. And in the case that someone like Couture did make it to free agency he'd end up getting some insane deal that he'd have no chance at actually ever living up to.