Speculation: Tavares Tells Toronto, "I'm YOUR Huckleberry Now". Fans leaguewide mourn.

[tfriede2]

That’s wayyyy too much in each scenario

You wouldn't trade a late first, Fabbri or one of our Big 4, and one of Sobotka/Gunnarson/Berglund for the elite #1 center we've been clamoring for for over 15 years?

I can understand the hesitance regarding the first scenario in trading a first and a prospect for UFA rights - that's a gamble, certainly. But the second scenario - that's no question for me.

 

[KirkOut]

You wouldn't trade a late first, Fabbri or one of our Big 4, and one of Sobotka/Gunnarson/Berglund for the elite #1 center we've been clamoring for for over 15 years?

I can understand the hesitance regarding the first scenario in trading a first and a prospect for UFA rights - that's a gamble, certainly. But the second scenario - that's no question for me.

If that’s what’s it came down to I would but since NYI has basically no leverage in this situation I am finding it hard to believe that it would take nearly that much

 

[tfriede2]

If that’s what’s it came down to I would but since NYI has basically no leverage in this situation I am finding it hard to believe that it would take nearly that much

The NYI having no leverage assumes that Tavares is telling NYI that he only wants to sign with STL. If Tavares is willing to sign with multiple teams and tells NYI this, then NYI can create a bidding war. All of this is incredibly speculative, to be sure.

 

[Dbrownss]

What would you be willing to trade in a sign and trade? This is where our prospect depth could really come in handy. The Winnipeg first would be an obvious inclusion, but who else would you be comfortable adding? The certainty of getting Tavares in a sign and trade would definitely make Thomas expendable.

No it doesn't. A 1st+Thomas is an absurd overpayment for a guy that wants to play for you...long term.

To be fair...its completely uncharted waters, So there isnt a comparable.

 

[Brian39]

If that’s what’s it came down to I would but since NYI has basically no leverage in this situation I am finding it hard to believe that it would take nearly that much

Yeah, it's a tough call. A late 1st and Fabbri is objectively a great trade for 8 years of a top 10 NHL center. That would be an absolute heist if went down midway through year 1 of the contract. However, it feels like too much since the Isles would be weeks away form losing him for nothing. Realistically, I'd imagine Tavares would want some input into the trade and wouldn't value an 8th year so much that he'd want his new team to give up 2 high value assets. But none of us really know. I'd push hard for the package to be the Winnipeg 1st and a mid-value asset. But if it takes a 2nd high value asset, I think I'd end up caving.

At the end of the day, getting Tavares on an 8 year deal in June would be the best thing that's happened to this franchise since drafting Tarasenko and Schwartz within 20 minutes of each other.

 

[tfriede2]

No it doesn't. A 1st+Thomas is an absurd overpayment for a guy that wants to play for you...long term.

To be fair...its completely uncharted waters, So there isnt a comparable.

Okay, but you're assuming that the Blues would otherwise be able to land Tavares in free agency, no? If that is the assumption, then of course trading a 1st and Thomas is an overpayment. The point of making the trade is that there IS uncertainty - 29 other teams would be bidding on Tavares.

I understand that there's a lot of uncertainty in this entire scenario - if NYI lets teams talk to Tavares, then perhaps Tavares only agrees to potential deals with a few teams, several teams, or maybe only one team. If the Blues are one of those teams, then the amount the Blues would be willing to trade depends on how many other teams have potential deals with Tavares. If the Blues are the only team that has a potential deal, the obviously the Blues have leverage, and there would be no need to trade Thomas. But if the Blues are one of a few/several teams with a potential deal, then the Blues would be bidding against other teams for a signed Tavares - in this case, the scenario becomes much more similar to your typical trade, and Thomas would certainly be on the table.

 

[Brian39]

No it doesn't. A 1st+Thomas is an absurd overpayment for a guy that wants to play for you...long term.

To be fair...its completely uncharted waters, So there isnt a comparable.

Devil's advocate: That package is only discussed if he is willing/wants to play for numerous teams long term. If he has 1 pick, then of course that's an overpayment, But if he values an 8th year more than picking 1 specific landing spot, then suddenly the 'wants to play for you long term' carries much less weight. Thomas is one of the few things that is off limits for me. But if Tavares is comfortable creating a bidding war, then that likely winds up being a realistic package. If it comes down to trading that value package or watching him go to another team who is willing to pay that, then suddenly it's not too much of an overpayment.

I don't think Tavares will value an 8th year so much that he will allow his new team to give up that much. But we really don't know what he is thinking and if he is, then it's a realistic discussion.

 

[Tryblot]

No one is advocating trading a 1st and Fabbri for the rights to Tavares. That would be the package for an already-signed Tavares.

The only team who can offer an 8 year contract to Tavares is the Islanders. If the Islanders trade him prior to July 1, the receiving team can still only offer him a 7 year deal. The idea behind a sign + trade is that Tavares would want an 8th year from another team and would discuss this with the Islanders. The Isles would give the team(s) Tavares wants to go to permission to talk contract terms between now and the draft. If the other team and Tavares agree to terms on an 8 year deal, that team would then work out a trade with the Isles where the Isles sign Tavares to that contract and then immediately trade him to the other team. For example:

Tavarres tells the Isles that he isn't going to re-sign and wants to sign with the Blues. He wants the 8th year and the Isles want to recover some value for him. The Isles let us talk to Tavares and we come to an agreement for an 8 year, $90 mil contract. We tell the Isles that we'll give up a 1st and Fabbri for Tavares if he has signed hat contract. The Isles sign him to that contract and then immediately trade him to us for Fabbri and a 1st.

There is no risk of trading assets and then losing him in this scenario. By the time we trade the assets, he is under contract for 8 more years.

Alright, that makes more sense.

 

[Dbrownss]

Okay, but you're assuming that the Blues would otherwise be able to land Tavares in free agency, no? If that is the assumption, then of course trading a 1st and Thomas is an overpayment. The point of making the trade is that there IS uncertainty - 29 other teams would be bidding on Tavares.

I understand that there's a lot of uncertainty in this entire scenario - if NYI lets teams talk to Tavares, then perhaps Tavares only agrees to potential deals with a few teams, several teams, or maybe only one team. If the Blues are one of those teams, then the amount the Blues would be willing to trade depends on how many other teams have potential deals with Tavares. If the Blues are the only team that has a potential deal, the obviously the Blues have leverage, and there would be no need to trade Thomas. But if the Blues are one of a few/several teams with a potential deal, then the Blues would be bidding against other teams for a signed Tavares - in this case, the scenario becomes much more similar to your typical trade, and Thomas would certainly be on the table.

Devil's advocate: That package is only discussed if he is willing/wants to play for numerous teams long term. If he has 1 pick, then of course that's an overpayment, But if he values an 8th year more than picking 1 specific landing spot, then suddenly the 'wants to play for you long term' carries much less weight. Thomas is one of the few things that is off limits for me. But if Tavares is comfortable creating a bidding war, then that likely winds up being a realistic package. If it comes down to trading that value package or watching him go to another team who is willing to pay that, then suddenly it's not too much of an overpayment.

I don't think Tavares will value an 8th year so much that he will allow his new team to give up that much. But we really don't know what he is thinking and if he is, then it's a realistic discussion.

I just view it as worst case scenario if we get JT. It's hard to imagine he would be open to going to that many teams, and that many teams have the cap space and assets to offer up for the Blues to offer up a 1st+blue chip center prospect to win the bidding war

 

[tfriede2]

Devil's advocate: That package is only discussed if he is willing/wants to play for numerous teams long term. If he has 1 pick, then of course that's an overpayment, But if he values an 8th year more than picking 1 specific landing spot, then suddenly the 'wants to play for you long term' carries much less weight. Thomas is one of the few things that is off limits for me. But if Tavares is comfortable creating a bidding war, then that likely winds up being a realistic package. If it comes down to trading that value package or watching him go to another team who is willing to pay that, then suddenly it's not too much of an overpayment.

I don't think Tavares will value an 8th year so much that he will allow his new team to give up that much. But we really don't know what he is thinking and if he is, then it's a realistic discussion.

This is basically what I'm trying to say as well, and Brian39 makes a good point about Tavares being willing to create a bidding war. Ultimately, if push comes to shove, I would personally be comfortable including Thomas in a deal if needed...some still might not feel comfortable, thinking that Thomas on an ELC is more valuable than Tavares at $10 mil or so.

 

[tfriede2]

I just view it as worst case scenario if we get JT. It's hard to imagine he would be open to going to that many teams, and that many teams have the cap space and assets to offer up for the Blues to offer up a 1st+blue chip center prospect to win the bidding war

That's fair - I guess my offer was assuming the worst case scenario, as in "if needed, what would be the most you would be willing to give up for a signed Tavares?" There are so many unknown variables.

 

[Dbrownss]

That's fair - I guess my offer was assuming the worst case scenario, as in "if needed, what would be the most you would be willing to give up for a signed Tavares?" There are so many unknown variables.

Yea, I get what you were saying. Just seems like that scenerio is even more unlikely then JT wearing a Blue Note to start next season

 

[Ranksu]

This could turn out pretty bad if Tavares doesn't come to Blues and Stastny has fall in love with Jets. Hell, we might see in next season our 2nd line center is Berglund, Sobotka or Steen.

Could be Blues will be next season central division dead last and maybe one of the NHL bottom teams if we can't get 1 center top6 forward and 1 right winger who's also top6 forward.

 

[PiggySmalls]

This could turn out pretty bad if Tavares doesn't come to Blues and Stastny has fall in love with Jets. Hell, we might see in next season our 2nd line center is Berglund, Sobotka or Steen.

Could be Blues will be next season central division dead last and maybe one of the NHL bottom teams if we can't get 1 center top6 forward and 1 right winger who's also top6 forward.

I agree, that is why I hope Philly gets this years pick. If all options fail this off-season Blues will be really wanting their own pick in 2019.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

I agree, that is why I hope Philly gets this years pick. If all options fail this off-season Blues will be really wanting their own pick in 2019.

That's how I see it. Obviously I'll be pumped if it ended up in the lottery top 3, but if we're destined to be in that 12-15 range I'd rather give that up and keep next years. Getting that pick from WPG makes that a tad easier to swallow (assuming it's not used in a trade).

 

[EastonBlues22]

Personally, I don't think a sign and trade is very likely. The big selling point is ostensibly the 8th year, but does that really matter for Tavares? If it's all about the money, he can already basically name his price when he hits the market and some team will almost certainly pay it, regardless of whether that number is spread over 7 years or 8.

From the buying team's side, I don't think the contract being spread out over 8 years instead of 7 adds all that much value. A $100 million (the same that McDavid received) has a cap hit of $12.5 million over 8 years. Over 7 years it is $14.3 million. What is that $1.8 million in extra space worth? To me, not much at all. Certainly not worth Fabbri and a 1st.

The real value is in getting Tavares, not the cap hit savings, and (as we saw with Shattenkirk in a somewhat similar situation) Tavares ultimately has complete control over where he wants to be. I don't think the Islanders are likely to milk much value from this situation, if any.

 

[TheBluePenguin]

I was just thinking, IF and I think it is a big IF Tavares does sign with the Blues. That would be our biggest free agent signing since ........ Turgeon?

 

[Alklha]

I was just thinking, IF and I think it is a big IF Tavares does sign with the Blues. That would be our biggest free agent signing since ........ Turgeon?

We traded for Turgeon.

He'd be the teams biggest UFA signing ever.

 

[67Blues]

I agree, that is why I hope Philly gets this years pick. If all options fail this off-season Blues will be really wanting their own pick in 2019.

I was saying the same thing this weekend. If everything goes soft and brown on the Blues this summer as far as centers go, we could be a top 5 draft team next year. I can't think of many years where the top 5 drafted players weren't all effective NHL players.

 

[BangarangxRufio]

I was saying the same thing this weekend. If everything goes soft and brown on the Blues this summer as far as centers go, we could be a top 5 draft team next year. I can't think of many years where the top 5 drafted players weren't all effective NHL players.

Watch us win the cup with 71-10-RT-49 down the middle

 

[Celtic Note]

I don’t see a lot of value in the 8th year. If Tavares gets to UFA, then the bidding war is likely high enough that he makes up the difference and in the process gets paid the same amount or close to it one year sooner.

 

[Alklha]

I don’t see a lot of value in the 8th year. If Tavares gets to UFA, then the bidding war is likely high enough that he makes up the difference and in the process gets paid the same amount or close to it one year sooner.

The value of the final year is debatable. It is always going to depend on the player.

Could he make the same over 7 years by going to UFA as he in over 8 years and taking a discount? Yeah, if that is his motivation. McDavid agreed a salary with Edmonton, and while they were working on the structure he thought about it and asked for the agreed salary to be reduced.

$1m-$1.5m isn't a huge amount to the cap, but a star player taking a discount sets an example and can be the difference between a garbage third liner and some quality scoring depth.

I don't really see a sign and trade happening, but I'd hope Armstrong at least explores the idea.

 

[Brian39]

I don’t see a lot of value in the 8th year. If Tavares gets to UFA, then the bidding war is likely high enough that he makes up the difference and in the process gets paid the same amount or close to it one year sooner.

The entire idea of a sign and trade from Tavares' perspective is that there is the same bidding war but on an 8 year deal instead of 7. For example, let's say the 'UFA bidding war' drives the cost to $14 mil AAV at 7 years for a total value of $98 mil. Tavares then makes it known to all the teams he'd be willing to sign with that $14 mil is an exceedingly fair number and that he'll accept a deal with whatever team is willing to do a sign and trade where he is making $14 mil AAV for 8 years instead of 7. That's $14 mil more for Tavares, which is by no means trivial.

From the player's standpoint, this isn't about taking a lesser AAV over 8 years instead of 7. It's about getting an extra year at the same/similar AAV. If Tavares is open to the sign/trade idea, it is because he is trying to maximize his earnings by either getting the same AAV for an extra year, or coming down slightly on the AAV in order to reach a grand total that wouldn't be feasible under a 7 year deal.

 

[Ranksu]

I agree, that is why I hope Philly gets this years pick. If all options fail this off-season Blues will be really wanting their own pick in 2019.

What are our options for 2019 UFA market? Are then available for top6 centers?

 

[67Blues]

What are our options for 2019 UFA market? Are then available for top6 centers?

Pretty ugly 2018 NHL Free Agents Tracker http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/2019/center/ufa/