Proposal: The Jets Should go after Karlsson HARD

[Whileee]

IMO he was the best player in the play offs last season. Defying patterns is what he does. He is unique in the same way that Crosby or Ovechkin are. I stand by my educated opinion that this season so far is just a bump on the road to continued greatness.

I think he's still outstanding, but I don't think he'll stay at the same level throughout his next contract. I wouldn't gamble $80M+ on that.

 

[Jets 31]

Some dumb GM will give him 12 million a year and i don't think he is worth that . Ottawa has got some good players and he is doing nothing so far to help the team win games . If he is so good wouldn't he be doing something right now to help the team win the odd game ?

 

[surixon]

IMO he was the best player in the play offs last season. Defying patterns is what he does. He is unique in the same way that Crosby or Ovechkin are. I stand by my educated opinion that this season so far is just a bump on the road to continued greatness.

Neither Crosby or Ovie have defied that age curve though. While Crosby is still amongst the best in the game he is not nearly as dominant as he was 24-28. Ovie is clearly at a lower level then he was his early to kid 20's. That is the risk, you are likely getting a reduced but still very nice player but are paying him for his peak performance years.

We don't even know how gracefully he'll age or whether injuries will slow him down. Look how quickly Heatly burned out of the league after age 30 due to lost mobility. It isnt always a gradual slow decline.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

I didn't say that Crosby and Ovechkin aren't affected by aging, but they are still elite players in this league. Quite a few people believe that Crosby still is the best player in the world. They are both much, much more than "very nice" players. If you want to acquire a player of that caliber then you will have pay for what others would be ready to pay for them. It is not paying for peak performance years, but for what they bring to the table today.

We cannot know how gracefully EK ages when it comes to freak accidents like if some goon cuts his achilles tendon again, or if he breaks his foot again blocking a shot, but that is a risk involved in every signing of a player, isn't it? So it is a moot point.

What we do know is that EK is regarded as something of a physical phenomenon and that he puts in all the work to be the best at what he does. That bodes for a long career just like Lidstrom had. One shouldn't even mention Heatley in the same sentence, since he was pretty much a one trick pony, albeit a good one (i actually liked the guy).

 

[JohnStaymoose]

I like our chances without him, guy is a great player don't get me wrong but we would have to give up to much to even have him as a rental. Chevy holds our prospects close to the chest and I don't think he will give them up for a rental and I'm ok with that. Highly doubt he would sign here anyway as most people who are not from Winnipeg or spent large amounts of time here don't understand or care just how great this city is.

 

[Channelcat]

I've got enough headaches watching Buff, Chia, Myers with their D coverage. Karlsson would put me over the edge.

 

[Gm0ney]

You think he'll reach the level of play he was at the last 4-5 years? That seems like a risky proposition. I think he could still have several very good seasons, but I would be really reluctant to pay him for how good he was over the past 5 seasons, instead of how good he'll be over the next 5.

Here's an analysis of performance by age for NHL forwards and defense (source: A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)). Karlsson might defy the overall pattern, but it would be a risky gamble, in my view.

That curve for Defensemen falls off a lot more gradually than Forwards. Here it is with some proposed and current contracts by age to compare:

If these players follow the typical curve, Trouba would lose about 0.75 WAR over the course of an 8 year deal starting next season, since he's starting at the top though, he'll only be 0.75 off his peak. Karlsson would lose about 0.60 on an 8 year deal that starts in 2019-20. Buff will lose about 0.20 over the course of his current deal. Little can be expected to drop about 0.875 over his next deal and end up 1.375 off his peak. Wheeler will drop about 0.95 if he signs a 6 year deal to begin in 2019-20, ending up about 1.8 of his peak.

Conclusion: sign Karlsson, not Wheeler.

 

[Whileee]

That curve for Defensemen falls off a lot more gradually than Forwards. Here it is with some proposed and current contracts by age to compare:

If these players follow the typical curve, Trouba would lose about 0.75 WAR over the course of an 8 year deal starting next season, since he's starting at the top though, he'll only be 0.75 off his peak. Karlsson would lose about 0.60 on an 8 year deal that starts in 2019-20. Buff will lose about 0.20 over the course of his current deal. Little can be expected to drop about 0.875 over his next deal and end up 1.375 off his peak. Wheeler will drop about 0.95 if he signs a 6 year deal to begin in 2019-20, ending up about 1.8 of his peak.

Conclusion: sign Karlsson, not Wheeler.

Sign Trouba, not Karlsson.

Little's deal was a bit risky, but a good AAV makes it a bit safer.

I don't mind 11m+ for Karlsson for the past 5 years and the next 3-4, but I don't like that hit to take him out to 9-10 years from now.

Wheeler's next contract worries me.

 

[surixon]

Sign Trouba, not Karlsson.

Little's deal was a bit risky, but a good AAV makes it a bit safer.

I don't mind 11m+ for Karlsson for the past 5 years and the next 3-4, but I don't like that hit to take him out to 9-10 years from now.

Wheeler's next contract worries me.

Yeah I don't want Wheeler inked for any longer than 3 to 4 years.

 

[Gm0ney]

Sign Trouba, not Karlsson.

Little's deal was a bit risky, but a good AAV makes it a bit safer.

I don't mind 11m+ for Karlsson for the past 5 years and the next 3-4, but I don't like that hit to take him out to 9-10 years from now.

Wheeler's next contract worries me.

I guess the question is Karlsson's WAR Peak -0.85 (avg over 8 years) vs. Trouba's WAR Peak -0.40 (avg over 8 years). Anyway, it might not be significant enough to justify the cost to bring in Karlsson plus the contract cap hit over Trouba. Still, when you talk about a player who could take a team over the top...if it meant a Stanley Cup in the next decade and perennial contender status, is it worth it?

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Short Answer NO

Long answer... Hell No. How much money do ppl want to spend on D.

 

[rkp]

Taking into account the amount of bone removed during the surgery this past summer, will he ever regain the skating/puck moving capability he once had?...he is, what 27 years old....and the amount of money he wants and the return Ottawa wants..can any team really afford him?...unless you mortgage your future for now.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Taking into account the amount of bone removed during the surgery this past summer, will he ever regain the skating/puck moving capability he once had?...he is, what 27 years old....and the amount of money he wants and the return Ottawa wants..can any team really afford him?...unless you mortgage your future for now.

No. Its all just a publicity stunt from Ottawa anyways.

 

[Gurilla]

The net loss is greater than the net gain in any possible scenario. I'd rather not.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Only way i do it is if 7.5 million buff is going the other way. Cuz we spend enough on D as is.

 

[Eyeseeing]

The only Senator I'd want is Stone

 

[Skidooboy]

I was thinking as a rental.
He has admitted he wants to go to free agency. Ottawa isn’t likely to sign him.

Dump a pick or two with Trouba to get him.
I think he could make us legit contenders right now. As in this year.
I think our window is open, shouldn’t you go all in?


We really don’t lose anything, (I don’t see Trouba here long term)
And maybe, just maybe, we open a door to a multi cup situation.

Our moose prospects are all at max value right now, the cupboard is full,
We have cap space, we have contract control over several key elements ensuring a sold foundational core group for years to come, an organization with an excellent record of drafting /developing ...,

I think we should do it.

 

[Jet]

He's a phenomenal player but if we are going hard for an elite defenseman we should get one that can play big shutdown minutes.

No, I do not believe the theory that the best defense is offense. I do understand when you have possession the opposition does not, but what do those high possession players do when they DON'T have the puck? That has always been my biggest complaint about Byfuglien.

A defenseman who can recover the puck in his own zone, exit consistently clean by pass or skating, and is physical in front of the net and behind the goal line is critical for preventing goals which is something you MUST do if you want to be successful in the playoffs.

 

[Gm0ney]

He's a phenomenal player but if we are going hard for an elite defenseman we should get one that can play big shutdown minutes.

No, I do not believe the theory that the best defense is offense. I do understand when you have possession the opposition does not, but what do those high possession players do when they DON'T have the puck? That has always been my biggest complaint about Byfuglien.

A defenseman who can recover the puck in his own zone, exit consistently clean by pass or skating, and is physical in front of the net and behind the goal line is critical for preventing goals which is something you MUST do if you want to be successful in the playoffs.

Didn't Karlsson almost single-handedly drag the Sens to within an OT goal of the SCF last year on a broken foot? I mean, if you're looking for playoff success...

 

[Farmboy Patty]

Didn't Karlsson almost single-handedly drag the Sens to within an OT goal of the SCF last year on a broken foot? I mean, if you're looking for playoff success...

He was a warrior on a mission and managed to pull that team that close to the SCF. Imagine what he could achieve with a speedy and skilled team like the Jets

 

[surixon]

He was a warrior on a mission and managed to pull that team that close to the SCF. Imagine what he could achieve with a speedy and skilled team like the Jets

That was also likely a one time run. He hadn't shown the same level of play in any playoff appearance prior and will most certainly have a very hard time coming close to replicating it. We shouldn't be looking at last year as the expectation or norm for him.

I would rather go for Doughty if he was available as he has numerous consmythe worthy runs.

 

[FFHockey]

I’d say no way in he**, he would come here anyways.

He does not seem to be the same player he was pre-surgery. Other than the giveaways!

I appreciate that he is a special talent but we could spend money better in other ways.

Last year’s Karlsson to our team as a rental...would be juicy, but can’t see Chevy wanting to part with what their demands will be for a rental.

Good discussion nonetheless.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

That was also likely a one time run. He hadn't shown the same level of play in any playoff appearance prior and will most certainly have a very hard time coming close to replicating it. We shouldn't be looking at last year as the expectation or norm for him.

I would rather go for Doughty if he was available as he has numerous consmythe worthy runs.

Why do you think it was a one time run? IMO he has played steadily better and better for many years now, and I've seen lots of the play off games that he's played.

They say that experience is a winning ingredient in the play offs. EK has tons of it and he is the kind of guy you want on your team to lead by example and show the way in the merciless grind of the play offs.

 

[surixon]

Why do you think it was a one time run? IMO he has played steadily better and better for many years now, and I've seen lots of the play off games that he's played.

They say that experience is a winning ingredient in the play offs. EK has tons of it and he is the kind of guy you want on your team to lead by example and show the way in the merciless grind of the play offs.

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I have also seen a tonne of him in the playoffs and points only tell part of the story. He dictated things and took the play over both ways last season to a level he hadn't shown at any other point in his career. It was a marvelous performance, I'm not taking that away from him. But I have also seen him play in pretty much most every other playoff game he's played (Used to have a soft spot for that team) and his other all around performances pale in comparison to it. He's always been good for some points but he did so much more than that last year. You are free to disagree, but that is how I see it. His play this season after getting a good chunk of bone in his foot removed doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in me especially when the player himself has doubts about regaining his full ability. I would need to see how he rebounds next season prior to being at all enticed to pony up the type of assets that Ottawa would demand.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

I have also seen a tonne of him in the playoffs and points only tell part of the story. He dictated things and took the play over both ways last season to a level he hadn't shown at any other point in his career. It was a marvelous performance, I'm not taking that away from him. But I have also seen him play in pretty much most every other playoff game he's played (Used to have a soft spot for that team) and his other all around performances pale in comparison to it. He's always been good for some points but he did so much more than that last year. You are free to disagree, but that is how I see it. His play this season after getting a good chunk of bone in his foot removed doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in me especially when the player himself has doubts about regaining his full ability. I would need to see how he rebounds next season prior to being at all enticed to pony up the type of assets that Ottawa would demand.

Fair enough, we don't need to agree on what level of awesomeness he will be on after this season but we can agree on that in last seasons play offs he was magical. Skidooboy posted earlier that the window could be now to make a move for EK if only as a rental in exchange for Trouba and something else, and I don't think it sounds too crazy when you consider how good the timing would be. The stars would be aligned and they'd be wearing Jets jerseys!