The Future is Now

[SpookyTsuki]

Crosby's raw numbers may not be his peak, but he's evolved into one of the best complete players in the game. His defensive prowess today is significantly better than when he first entered the league. He has years of experience at the highest level to draw upon along with his tremendous gifts. And it shows.

I don’t know if that’s to counter my point. Cause it actually helps it, But crosby isn’t the only guy on the team. Malkin and kessel aren’t 23. Letang isn’t 23 (even tho he was injured last year)

There’s more examples then pitt as well. Boston is one and I can keep going if you want

 

[Henkka]

Can't remember if it was Yzerman himself or Bowman talking about Yzerman but it was mentioned that Yzerman left points on the table when he took it upon himself to round out his game. Plenty of guys are still at peak performance despite not hitting their statistical peak.

Yep. There's more on hockey than just point scoring. Preventing opposite players to score is another thing,

Datsyuk did exactly same. He would have been +100 point player on his prime, if would have wanted to one-dimensional, but he concentrated on defence, preventing opposite points.

Usually the career curve is like that for many players, first you score, and you get your money. It important on that phase of career. Then the coaches will ask for harder defensive duties and point-scoring will drop, but the EFFECTIVENESS for your TEAM won't drop.

Very simple thing to understand.

 

[jz78817]

I don’t know if that’s to counter my point. Cause it actually helps it, But crosby isn’t the only guy on the team. Malkin and kessel aren’t 23. Letang isn’t 23 (even tho he was injured last year)

There’s more examples then pitt as well. Boston is one and I can keep going if you want

Um.... Yzerman? his best (personal) years were 1988-1992, 100+ points every year. When did he hoist the Cup? 1997, 1998, 2002.

 

[Winger98]

We can argue primes, but it should also be noted that most teams that become contenders do it when the majority of their core is younger than thirty. When the Wings won their cup in 97 Yzerman was the oldest of that core at 31. Feds was 26. Shanny was 27. Lids was 26. Vladdy was 29. In 08, Datsyuk was 29 and Z was 26. Flip was 23. Kronwall was 26. Stuart was 26.

On the very outside, we have seven years to put together a cup winner with the guys we currently have on the roster. More likely it's closer to five. Drafting high this year and next would be huge for that.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Young players produce - according to the facts. Provided by the chart.

These particular young players produce when they play big minutes.
Provided by the facts.

First off; that is ONE statistical look at how players age. It's clearly not perfect (the writer of the blog piece even mentions as much several times) and even someone who is clueless about how statistics work should know that averages always mean there are players on opposite sides of the spectrum. You can't just say "oh look, a neat graph!" and then apply it as the ultimate truth as to how you should handle every single player. It's also fairly easy to see how that particular statistical outlook has a very minor difference in actual performance from about 18 to 30. It's a variance of 0.50 "WAR" as a cumulative effect of hundreds of players: effectively meaning that the individual difference in performance for the most part was barely noticeable. And of course on the younger side of that spectrum you have a lot of high draft picks that make the show early and skew the numbers, and on the older side you may have things like players getting tougher matchups, taking more defensive responsibility and even conserving their energy a bit more for the playoffs (i.e. players getting smarter with age).

I also gotta agree with Lead, do you want the team to draft high or do you want them to maximize the output of all their players at this moment in time in order to gain a few positions in the standings? Is this team a contender if AA just gets a few more minutes of ice each game?

We can argue primes, but it should also be noted that most teams that become contenders do it when the majority of their core is younger than thirty. When the Wings won their cup in 97 Yzerman was the oldest of that core at 31. Feds was 26. Shanny was 27. Lids was 26. Vladdy was 29. In 08, Datsyuk was 29 and Z was 26. Flip was 23. Kronwall was 26. Stuart was 26.

On the very outside, we have seven years to put together a cup winner with the guys we currently have on the roster. More likely it's closer to five. Drafting high this year and next would be huge for that.

So, plenty of time considering most around here seem to feel we have zero core players on the roster as of now.

 

[Redder Winger]

I want progress. Which means development of the young assets who will lead the team in the future, and acquiring of young assets who will lead us in the future.

 

[Redder Winger]

We can argue primes, but it should also be noted that most teams that become contenders do it when the majority of their core is younger than thirty. When the Wings won their cup in 97 Yzerman was the oldest of that core at 31. Feds was 26. Shanny was 27. Lids was 26. Vladdy was 29. In 08, Datsyuk was 29 and Z was 26. Flip was 23. Kronwall was 26. Stuart was 26.

On the very outside, we have seven years to put together a cup winner with the guys we currently have on the roster. More likely it's closer to five. Drafting high this year and next would be huge for that.

Detroit's cup winning team in 2008 was the oldest cup winning team in 50 years. (31.7)
The second oldest? Detroit in 01. (31).

Anyway, the point of this isn't to say "OMG we're not going to win the cup" if we play Athanasiou or Mantha on line 4.
The point is that these guys are more ready than we think.
I see too many posts about how they're just kids and how it's about getting them ready for the future.
But they are at the age when the future is now.

It's similar to the situation with Tatar when he was getting dogged by Babcock while guys like Cleary and Abdelkader skated with on scoring lines.

Maybe Athanasiou or Mantha develop into Tatar caliber players. Or maybe better. Or maybe worse.
But it's time to find out.

And finding out is more important than playing a heavy winger or defensively responsible winger under the guise that they help you win more games.

Especially when, in the case of AA, at least, a clear trend is emerging.

 

[Winger98]

So, plenty of time considering most around here seem to feel we have zero core players on the roster as of now.

Yes. Though I think Larkin, Mantha, Ras, Cholo, and Hronek could be a part of a pretty good team going forward. But if we don't start pulling in some more of that upper level, first line/first pair talent soon, the opportunity we have with them could have its window close quicker than some expect. I've said before that if we can pick high in the very near future, and get the sort of player expected from that sort of selection, I like our chances.

I'm just really not sold that we're going to be picking that high, though. And then grabbing that sort of talent becomes far more difficult.

 

[SirloinUB]

So for Tatar and Nyquist, their production actually drops.
For Mantha and Athanasiou, their production rises substantially - especially for AA.

For Z and Larkin, there hasn't been a ton of change. Factoring TOI, their production is probably about the same.

If anything your statistical splits reinforce the inconsistency that both AA and Mantha play with.
Mantha and AA aren’t simply producing more because they are playing more; they are playing more because they are playing better. When they are playing better they score more.

 

[ricky0034]

I think as far as when someone peaks goes people are far too focused on age and not enough on NHL experience

for example,did Franzen peak in his late 20s just because or was it because he was already 26 by the time he was even in the NHL?


it's not all about age,it takes time to hit your stride in the NHL aswell

do a lot of the better players in the league peak at a super early age? yeah,but those guys are also slotted into NHL lineups with sizable roles as teenagers

 

[Redder Winger]

If anything your statistical splits reinforce the inconsistency that both AA and Mantha play with.
Mantha and AA aren’t simply producing more because they are playing more; they are playing more because they are playing better. When they are playing better they score more.

Again, that's false.
Maybe with Mantha there's more truth to it. Mantha has struggled for extended periods of time with good ice time/skillled linemates.

Athanasiou wasn't playing well early - he gets his icetime increase - booom -- instant production. Detroit goes 4 games without a regulation loss.
He has an awful Edmonton game (so did Larkin) and he gets sent back mostly to line 4.

The team absolutely sucks for a month, going 3-7-4.
Then boom, Mantha gets hurt, Athanasiou goes to Larkin's line....
First 3 game winning streak of the year..

 

[Redder Winger]

I think as far as when someone peaks goes people are far too focused on age and not enough on NHL experience

for example,did Franzen peak in his late 20s just because or was it because he was already 26 by the time he was even in the NHL?


it's not all about age,it takes time to hit your stride in the NHL aswell

do a lot of the better players in the league peak at a super early age? yeah,but those guys are also slotted into NHL lineups with sizable roles as teenagers

There are exceptions to every average.
It doesn't mean you should ignore the average.

 

[SirloinUB]

Again, that's false.
Maybe with Mantha there's more truth to it. Mantha has struggled for extended periods of time with good ice time/skillled linemates.

Athanasiou wasn't playing well early - he gets his icetime increase - booom -- instant production. Detroit goes 4 games without a regulation loss.
He has an awful Edmonton game (so did Larkin) and he gets sent back mostly to line 4.

The team absolutely sucks for a month, going 3-7-4.
Then boom, Mantha gets hurt, Athanasiou goes to Larkin's line....
First 3 game winning streak of the year..

If you can't see the inconsistencies in AA's game you're only seeing what you want to see.

 

[Redder Winger]

If you can't see the inconsistencies in AA's game you're only seeing what you want to see.

Who says I don't see inconsistencies in his game?

I want him to be a better backchecker (where he's improved this year) and a more engaged forechecker.
To me, whether or not he ever develops good passing ability, he can absolutely improve in those areas.

But if you play him big minutes with players with ability, he's going to produce.

There's just too much evidence over the last 3 years to suggest otherwise.

Look at how well he played with Vanek last year.

 

[Frk It]

Then boom, Mantha gets hurt, Athanasiou goes to Larkin's line....
First 3 game winning streak of the year..

The same stretch where Howard had SV% of .971, .974, and .949?

 

[Redder Winger]

The same stretch where Howard had SV% of .971, .974, and .949?

He's played well.
He's also had lots of games where he played well and lost.
For example, the two previous games to what you mentioned - .935 and .920.

 

[Grimm]

I don't buy that.
You'd be better off just skipping practices once a week than shaving 3-4 minutes of icetime off per game -- if you think that's really an issue.

I don't buy it, I was playing devil's advocate. The game isn't NEARLY as physical these days to wear these kids down

 

[Bench]

I don’t know if that’s to counter my point. Cause it actually helps it, But crosby isn’t the only guy on the team. Malkin and kessel aren’t 23. Letang isn’t 23 (even tho he was injured last year)

There’s more examples then pitt as well. Boston is one and I can keep going if you want

I was adding upon what you said. So supporting your argument that peak numbers don't always equal peak performance. Although I think it's foolish to ignore that it's a sub-30 league by a wide margin, that isn't to say soon as you hit 30 you turn into a pumpkin. Crosby turned 30 for this season. So the vast majority of his accomplishments will have come in the first half of his career. He was not a late bloomer like Datsyuk in any respect, but he did become a better 1st line center in all zones.

In relation to the Red Wings, they need to promote young players quicker in the current climate. When they did the slow build they had exceptions to the rule over 30 that were highly capable and still producing. But those types of players are not on the current roster, save Zetterberg. Frans Nielsen and Darren Helm aren't the Hall of Fame players you keep guys studying under for years.

 

[Redder Winger]

Pretty sad that a team you cheer for, hurts you when they win. All this tanking crap, makes me hope we make the playoffs and miss the lottery, because cheering for your own team to lose is ridiculous. May as well root for another team, because what is the point of being a fan of a team if you want them to lose games. Tanking is working really well too, right Edmonton and Buffalo!

I don't find it sad.
I find it reasonable and hopeful.

I find the current Holland plan to be incredibly stupid. It's hard to understand why anyone supports it.

By the way -
Athanasiou 1-1-2
Frk 0-1-1
Mantha 1-0-1
Larkin 0-1-1

So yeah... the kids... the kids are leading the charge.

And you call yourself a fan

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Yes. Though I think Larkin, Mantha, Ras, Cholo, and Hronek could be a part of a pretty good team going forward. But if we don't start pulling in some more of that upper level, first line/first pair talent soon, the opportunity we have with them could have its window close quicker than some expect. I've said before that if we can pick high in the very near future, and get the sort of player expected from that sort of selection, I like our chances.

I'm just really not sold that we're going to be picking that high, though. And then grabbing that sort of talent becomes far more difficult.

I agree with all this, they might also need to realistically hit fairly large or big on someone after the first round as well during the next three years. The Letang or Keith kind of pick is what I am thinking of. No doubt you need to pick right at the top, but at some point with the extra picks we need to knock a second rounder out of the park, hey maybe that is Hronek, but I think that has to happen probably as well.

 

[chances14]

I agree with all this, they might also need to realistically hit fairly large or big on someone after the first round as well during the next three years. The Letang or Keith kind of pick is what I am thinking of. No doubt you need to pick right at the top, but at some point with the extra picks we need to knock a second rounder out of the park, hey maybe that is Hronek, but I think that has to happen probably as well.

that's why the wings need to continue to stock pile as many picks as they can for the next few drafts

 

[BinCookin]

btw what made this post into an "article"?

 

[Pavels Dog]

I find the current Holland plan to be incredibly stupid. It's hard to understand why anyone supports it.

What part of it? Elaborate. Is it selling at the deadline you're against? Not loading up more in order to make the playoffs? Not trading enough players? What is the "current Holland plan" in your eyes?

It's hard to make sense of what you're after. Selling more? Winning more? Just playing kids no matter what (which we're basically doing)?

 

[Oddbob]

I don't find it sad.
I find it reasonable and hopeful.

I find the current Holland plan to be incredibly stupid. It's hard to understand why anyone supports it.

By the way -
Athanasiou 1-1-2
Frk 0-1-1
Mantha 1-0-1
Larkin 0-1-1

So yeah... the kids... the kids are leading the charge.

And you call yourself a fan

Where did I talk about the kids or younger players????? Yeah, I do call myself a fan, because if people ask who I cheer for, I say Detroit, because that is the team I want to win. I don't cheer for a team to lose games, that has no sense in it, does it?

Also, as Pavels Dog referenced, in the past two seasons what has Holland really done wrong. The kids are playing more and more, and he is selling off at the deadline to gain picks, and will again this year. Many of you keep going on and on about our lack of talent and contract problems keeping us from getting better players, so what kind of trade do you want him to make right now? It honestly seems like you see this invisible negative vibe and are drawn to it. The Detroit Red Wings, have not been a bottom 10 team in any year other than last year, and this year, so what is so bad and horrible with our situation? Oh no! We haven't won a cup in 9 years, big whoop, 70%+ of the league says hello and many of them are in just as bad a spot as us and don't have 4 cups in 2o years. They may have a reason to be down, Wings fans do not.

 

[BinCookin]

..... Oh no! We haven't won a cup in 9 years, big whoop, 70%+ of the league says hello ....

Actually Pitt / LA / Chi / Bos 4 teams in last 10 years have won a cup so...

4/31 = 87% of the teams have more failure

I know you weren't really trying to measure anything... but after us, only 4 teams have ever won the cup.

We as fans really should not be all that upset with our world of hockey fandom.