The Future is Now

Discussion in 'Detroit Red Wings' started by Redder Winger, Jan 4, 2018.

  1. Redder Winger

    Redder Winger Registered User

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    Watching the Wings win three straight is kind of rough. It's been great to see the kids play well. Larkin. Athanasiou. Bertuzzi. And Mantha and Frk played well last night, too. At the same time, a three- game win streak isn't helping our lottery odds (though I'm beginning to think that other than Dahlin, it doesn't really matter where we pick as long as we're top 10).

    I've heard Paul Woods and other Red Wings broadcasters talking about the bright future. I think it's a crock of ****.
    The only high level prospect we have not currently on the team is Rasmussen, and even he comes with questions.

    When they talk about the bright future, they're talking about Athanasiou, Mantha, Larkin and Bertuzzi. That, too, is a crock of ****.
    Here's their age.
    Athanasiou - 23
    Mantha - 23
    Bertuzzi - 22 (will be 23 next month)
    Larkin - 21

    Larkin is the only guy in the group who I'd consider pretty young.

    The truth is that a lot of NHLers never produce any better than they did between the ages of 21-25. At a young age, they're at their peak, physically. They're less likely to have had a major injuries that have lasting impacts on their abilities.
    You can't treat these guys like they're 3-4 years from their prime. This could be their prime.

    I think the Wings have to find a way to get Athanasiou and Mantha over 18 minutes a game on a regular basis.
    That might mean dropping Bertuzzi in the lineup as along as Blashill views Helm-Nielsen-Abby as 15-19 minute a night shutdown line/pk guys.

    Last night Mantha played just 12:51. He was coming back from injury, so that's kind of understandable. But Blashill has AA and Mantha bouncing back and forth between a top 6 role and the 4th line - and that needs to end.

    It's great seeing Athanasiou take advantage of the minutes. But not if it reduces Mantha's time.

    Blashill needs to get these kids full-time, top six jobs.

    It's going to get harry when Glendening comes back, by the way.

    Possible lines:
    Nyquist Zetterberg Mantha
    Athanasiou Larkin Tatar
    Glendening Nielsen Abdelkader
    Frk Helm Bertuzzi

    I'd modify that a bit further to make Nielsen an attacking 3rd line.
    Nyquist Zetterberg Mantha
    Athanasiou Larkin Tatar
    Frk Nielsen Bertuzzi
    Helm Glendening Abdelkader
     
  2. TheMule93

    TheMule93 On a mule rides the swindler

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    Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Tatar, Nyquist, Hudler didn't start hitting their full strides until mid-late 20s. I don't necessarily agree that they're at their best yet. Sure they COULD be but i think its pretty unlikely when they've barely played 100 career games. Larkin being the exception because he's younger and has played much more.
     
  3. jz78817

    jz78817 Registered User

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    Yes.

    it should come out of Zetterberg's time (Kronwall's too, but he's a D.) He clearly runs out of gas towards the last 1/3rd of the game, and there's no reason they should be riding him like a rented mule for 20 minutes a night anymore.
     
  4. Redder Winger

    Redder Winger Registered User

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    Nyquist was 24 at his peak.
    Tatar was 23 at his peak.
    Franzen was a freak who went from 4th liner to sudden powerforward when Holmstrom got hurt.
    Zetterberg was 26.
    Datsyuk was 29.

    Fedorov was 23.
    Yzerman was 23.
    Crosby's best seasons were at 19 and 22.
    Ovechkin was 21.
    Toews was 22.
    Kane was 26
    Giroux was 23

    Zetterberg and Datsyuk had two reasons, I think for their late peak.
    1) Both were small forwards who needed to get a bit stronger.
    2) Both had the luxury of playing behind Hall of Famers early in their careers.

    In Datsyuk's case, he was a late pick who came over fairly late.

    Anyway, here's some actual data.
    A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)
    [​IMG]
     
  5. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    Nice analysis, but it's a bit flawed. In real life, the truth is a bit more advanved than a raw data.

    Young player will usually play against easier competition and produce better per icetime because of that. You will get a nice looking stats.

    They are not better players, they could just have easier competiton/more offensive zone starts etc.

    Young players also want to hunt for the next contract and will be more selfish because of that. When they'll get a better contract, they won't regress like it statistically might look. They just become more team players.

    Hockey players prime hasn't changed anywhere from 24 to 30. Forwards 24-28, defencemen 26-30. Older players just carry the toughest qualcomps and it will affect on their stats. Fast looking you can think it as a regression, but it's not. It's a matchup illusion.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2018
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  6. ShelbyZ

    ShelbyZ Registered User

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  7. Pavels Dog

    Pavels Dog Registered User

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    This is pretending that offensive numbers is the only thing determining ”peak” and that offensive numbers have nothing to do with team strength, icetime, matchups, linemates, league-scoring etc etc

    You’re also mostly looking at early picks. A 4th rounder usually peaks later than a top 3 pick.
     
  8. Redder Winger

    Redder Winger Registered User

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    Yeah, I'm sure Fedorov, Yzerman, Gretzky, Lemieux, Stamkos and Crosby were getting the easy matchups because coaches just love getting outscored 6-0.


    Last night, Athanasiou scored both Red Wings goals with Erik Karlsson on the ice. He must be exploiting the easy matchups too.
     
  9. Redder Winger

    Redder Winger Registered User

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    The peak later because they're not given the ice earlier.

    That chart isn't only for top 5 picks. It's for all players
     
  10. Red Stanley

    Red Stanley Registered User

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    As far as physical performance and injuries, you have a really good point. In terms of experience, match ups and developing a 2-way game, the offensive stats will often suffer, but the player is likely to be better overall while playing under more difficult conditions. For AA specifically, it's hard to judge where his performance will peak just yet. Last night was a bit misleading as Karlsson played like absolute ****.
     
  11. Redder Winger

    Redder Winger Registered User

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    Athletically, I'm guessing guys like AA and Mantha are close to their peak.
    They should learn more with experience.
    Larkin is probably close to that point too.

    There are not many compelling reasons to not play them 18-20 minutes a night.
     
  12. Pavels Dog

    Pavels Dog Registered User

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    Do all young players HAVE to get 18-20 minutes or what? I mean there are players that go an entire career without ever being 18-20 minute players.

    Larkin is getting nearly 20 minutes.
    Mantha 17.
    AA 15.

    None are exactly suffering icetime-wise. Mantha and AA can earn more time by being on their game more often. Do you believe in rewarding good play or just handing 18+ minutes to all young players for no reason other than a chart you found online?
     
  13. Grimm

    Grimm Registered User

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    If you are worried about being worn down physically and near 30 when we are "competitive" then why run them 20 minutes a game if it's useless...

    I'm for playing them btw, but just the other side of the coin. Wouldn't cutting it to 12-15 and getting good experience but not 18-20 to save physically for a year or 2 work if that's your argument...
     
  14. kliq

    kliq Registered User

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    You do realize that there are only 22 forwards in the entire NHL that play 20+ a night, 47 that play 19+ a night, and 86 that play 18+ a night.

    Essentially you need to be a top 3 forward to play those kids of minutes, and one our 3 is already doing it. I dont think AA/Mantha are top 3 forwards yet.
     
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  15. Redder Winger

    Redder Winger Registered User

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    If they're not 18-minute a night forwards today, they never will be.

    Frankly, based on limited data, the numbers are pretty strong for Athanasiou as an 18-minute a night guy.

    I'd be playing Athanasiou, Z and Mantha more than anyone right now.

    In his career - playing 18 minutes
    The Wings are 6-0-2.
    In those games Athanasiou has 7 goals and 4 assists.

    I'm not sure what people want from him.
    For two years playing chump minutes he was the second highest goal producer at 5 on 5 in the NHL.

    People said, "Oh, that's because he's playing easy matchups."

    Well, he's played 18 minutes a night 8 games in his career.
    The Wings are 6-0-2 and he has 11 points in those games.

    But let's just keep on making excuses for the a clueless coach who seems to know how to lose.
     
  16. Redder Winger

    Redder Winger Registered User

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    I don't buy that.
    You'd be better off just skipping practices once a week than shaving 3-4 minutes of icetime off per game -- if you think that's really an issue.
     
  17. Reddwit

    Reddwit Registered User

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    Can't remember if it was Yzerman himself or Bowman talking about Yzerman but it was mentioned that Yzerman left points on the table when he took it upon himself to round out his game. Plenty of guys are still at peak performance despite not hitting their statistical peak.
     
  18. Redder Winger

    Redder Winger Registered User

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    Young players produce - according to the facts. Provided by the chart.

    These particular young players produce when they play big minutes.
    Provided by the facts.

    Here are the numbers when Mantha plays 18 minutes
    15 games - 7 goals 7 assists 14 points
    Here are the numbers when he doesn't
    22 games 6 goals 5 assists 11 points


    Here are the numbers when AA plays 18 minutes
    6 games 6 goals 2 assists
    23 games 2 goals 5 assists

    What about Nyquist?
    14 games 2 goals 3 assists 5 points
    vs
    25 games 10 goals 5 assists 15 points

    Or Tatar
    11 games 3 goals 2 assists 5 points
    vs
    28 games 7 goals 5 assists 12 points

    Or Zetterberg
    32 games 5 goals 17 assists 22 points
    vs
    7 games 1 goal 4 assists 5 points

    Or Larkin
    31 games 5 goals 22 assists 27 points
    vs
    8 games 1 goal 5 assists

    So for Tatar and Nyquist, their production actually drops.
    For Mantha and Athanasiou, their production rises substantially - especially for AA.

    For Z and Larkin, there hasn't been a ton of change. Factoring TOI, their production is probably about the same.
     
  19. Redder Winger

    Redder Winger Registered User

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    You're not going to argue against the overwhelming statistical evidence by saying Yzerman played better defense, are you?

    If you want to go anecdotal, consider that some of this is myth.
    Fact is, when he blew out his knee and as he got older, and as the game changed, he wasn't a 100-point threat anyhow.

    For all the talk about how Bowman made Yzerman a defensive player, Yzerman was getting Selke votes in 1988 and 1989.

    That's not deny Yzerman his due. The game was a gamer, nonpareil..
     
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  20. kliq

    kliq Registered User

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    Not sure if you have ever taken an advanced statistics course before, but anyone that has would tell you that while its great that the Wings are 6-0-2 when AA plays 18min+, it is way to small of a sample size to come to any direct correlation. And even with a larger sample size, there are way to many flaws in that stat to really hold much merit anyways.

    My point to you is that the kids playing what they are playing is pretty normal. You are attempting to create the false narrative that they are being underplayed, but the stats show that there is a very limited amount of players that play the minutes you are demanding. Larkin should be (which he is), Mantha probably shouldn't be as he doesn't play the PK, and AA is coming along.

    As far as your last line, which part of my comment was an excuse for Blashill? I am not a fan of Blashill, and do want him gone at the end of the year. You must have misinterpreted my post.
     
  21. Bruce Joker

    Bruce Joker Professor X

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    You don’t have to win the cup in the peak years.

    Look at pitt for example
     
  22. Bench

    Bench Orange Safety Mesh

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    Crosby's raw numbers may not be his peak, but he's evolved into one of the best complete players in the game. His defensive prowess today is significantly better than when he first entered the league. He has years of experience at the highest level to draw upon along with his tremendous gifts. And it shows.
     
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  23. Dotter

    Dotter 11cups25 #hockeytown

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    Good point. So was Crosby's peak when he scored more goals/points, or when he became a more complete hockey player? I don't correlate goals/points with peak.
     
  24. Leadzedder

    Leadzedder Registered User

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    Good post Redder. I don't agree with it much at all. But solid post nonetheless.

    I'm not sure what you're trying to sell us here.


    You start with mentioning that the 3 wins in a row is hurting our lottery odds.

    I think we can all agree on that. If we are gonna suck and not make the playoffs let's hope for a nice consultation prize at the draft. Because we need more young talent to help us come back to relevance.

    If the team has a very good second half and manages to make the playoffs we'll tune in and cheer them on. Get some limited playoff experience at the cost of a top pick.

    None of this seems complicated.


    You then talk about our 21 - 23 year old players as being old.

    Craziness.

    But I think the point that should come up here is about our players between 18 - 21. We don't have a group of prospects in this range that are sure fire hits. We very well may but we don't know. Our group lacks sexy names like Chuchuryn or Vilardi or whoever but our guys could be better. It's just too early. (not a point that needs debating here).

    Not that many years ago, we wouldn't even see a player that wasn't 23, and now we're complaining that a player is too old at 23. Come on man.

    The rest of your post is about maximizing our current line up regarding minutes vs production.

    Good analysis. Good info. But what the ****? We can't go from bottom 3 **** team that has nothing good about it at all to suddenly it being presented that we are in some kind of window due to a 22 year old peak performance trend and that a coach that knows what he was doing would be trying to maximize our potential with this line up to take full advantage of these young guys' peak years.

    So what direction are you selling here?

    Those 3 young forwards are getting great minutes. We don't need anymore from them. They are developing and finding success. We should be doing EXACTLY what we're doing right now regarding those 3. Due to the things Blashill has done with those 3 players the last couple years may very well be the reason they turn out incredibly well. Larkin has been treated differently, not because he is from Michigan but because he showed up day 1 with the attitude and work ethic.

    Anyway, look at the roster, it's not good. Those 3 can't go far in the playoffs without help. That will take a few years. If those players progress and we end up with a nice player at the draft... sadly, that's a successful year this year. Be patient.


    This isn't directed at you Redder. But more of a in general thing....

    1. Cry about needing a rebuild
    2. Rebuild starts due to no other choice
    3. Realize we have a few young pieces that we can start to build around (because the GM stopped selling futures)
    4. Complain about how bad the team is during the start of the rebuild
    5. Provide data on how we can maximize our potential with a garbage roster.

    Doesn't compute.
     
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  25. Oddbob

    Oddbob Registered User

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    Pretty sad that a team you cheer for, hurts you when they win. All this tanking crap, makes me hope we make the playoffs and miss the lottery, because cheering for your own team to lose is ridiculous. May as well root for another team, because what is the point of being a fan of a team if you want them to lose games. Tanking is working really well too, right Edmonton and Buffalo!o_O:naughty::nod:
     

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