The Draft Analyst: 1st Round Mock Draft (March Edition)

[Steve Kournianos]

I think one of Zadina, Boqvist or Svechnikov will fall to 4th, and a lot will have to do with how the lottery transpires. My gut tells me both Vancouver will go all out to try and draft Dahlin, sorta like Burke with the Sedins. The question I have is how high do Vancouver's or Detroit's scouts and GMs rank Boqvist. Plus the Ottawa situation with Karlsson may dictate how they approach this draft. I think Chabot's play shouldn't dismiss the idea that Boqvist could very well become their Karlsson of the future.

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[VikingAv]

[QUOTE I think one of Zadina, Boqvist or Svechnikov will fall to 4th, and a lot will have to do with how the lottery transpires. My gut tells me both Vancouver will go all out to try and draft Dahlin, sorta like Burke with the Sedins. The question I have is how high do Vancouver's or Detroit's scouts and GMs rank Boqvist. Plus the Ottawa situation with Karlsson may dictate how they approach this draft. I think Chabot's play shouldn't dismiss the idea that Boqvist could very well become their Karlsson of the future.[/QUOTE]

This is kind of a given, isn't it?..... Or did you mean 5th?

 

[Tube Skates]

It's funny I don't think any of those three will be chosen fourth

 

[schnapshot]

How you guys have Dobson and Bouchard at 14 and 15 is beyond me

 

[VikingAv]

It's funny I don't think any of those three will be chosen fourth

Yeah, wouldn't surprise me at all if Boqvist goes lower in the draft, but with his wording it sounded like those three are supposed to be the first three picks and it would be a little surprise that one of them would "fall" to 4th.

 

[57special]

I think one of Zadina, Boqvist or Svechnikov will fall to 4th .

I think you meant below 4th? Otherwise, this statement is self evident. I'd be shocked if the Wild take another LHD, unless he is much more talented than anyone else out there when their pick comes.

 

[scoutsystem]

This is one of the hardest drafts to predict exact draft positions because lots depends on which team is where in the draft as well as needs. There's also the potential a big trade could shake things up even more and many players have lots of questions going along with them. There's also so much high end talent that few teams will come away disappointed regardless.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Bode Wilde before Dobson and Bouchard was pretty shocking to me.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

thanks Steve.. I like your work.. Its clear that you put a lot of effort into scouting the prospects.
In no doubt my less educated opinion, I do think Dobson and Bouchard are too low.
I might switch them in for Farabee and Veleno in the top 10. .I also question why Bode Wilde should go ahead of either of them... The top 15 looks like a very good group. The quality of D and specifically RD is excellent.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Thanks, Steve! I always look forward to your reports

 

[tigervixxxen]

I dont think the Avs take Bouchard there. I know, don't forget bpa and all but the last thing they need is an offensively leaning RHD. Im not ruling out a defenseman entirely but I just don't see them go Bouchard there when some good forwards are still on the board.

 

[tooji]

I can't see farabee being taken that high and Dobson and Bouchard falling that low.

 

[tsujimoto74]

I think one of Zadina, Boqvist or Svechnikov will fall to 4th, and a lot will have to do with how the lottery transpires. My gut tells me both Vancouver will go all out to try and draft Dahlin, sorta like Burke with the Sedins. The question I have is how high do Vancouver's or Detroit's scouts and GMs rank Boqvist. Plus the Ottawa situation with Karlsson may dictate how they approach this draft. I think Chabot's play shouldn't dismiss the idea that Boqvist could very well become their Karlsson of the future.

Fall?? At least one of those guys will necessarily be there at 4. Dahlin is a lock to go #1, and 3 guys can't get selected in 2 picks.

 

[Lays]

I really see Farabee to the Rangers and I’d love it but Merkley makes no sense. We don’t need a PPQB anymore. We have Shatty, Deangelo, and Pionk as guys who are great offensively. The latter 2 have also been really impressive defensively as well and they should stick for the next few years, what we need though is a defensive dman. Bokk makes sense as well

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Not that hard of a concept, people.

Dahlin-Svechnikov-Zadina are the consensus for picks 1, 2 and 3. Boqvist is not the consensus 4th pick but will be my No. 4 when the next rankings come out but could be higher on some at either 2 or 3. Hence, depending on a team's draft board, one of those four could "fall" to 4th overall.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Also, putting up big stats in the CHL is no guarantee to be a high pick, even for a defenseman like Bouchard.

Bode Wilde is an explosive player with better quickness and speed than Evan Bouchard, slightly better than Dobson.

Brady Skjei put up as many points in his NHL rookie season (39) as he did in his draft year with the NTDP and the three seasons at Minnesota -- Combined.

I really see Farabee to the Rangers and I’d love it but Merkley makes no sense. We don’t need a PPQB anymore. We have Shatty, Deangelo, and Pionk as guys who are great offensively. The latter 2 have also been really impressive defensively as well and they should stick for the next few years, what we need though is a defensive dman. Bokk makes sense as well

Shattenkirk will be almost 32 and a UFA when Merkley is 21.

Pionk and DeAngelo will be nearing UFA age when Merkley is 21.

They just acquired two young defensive defensemen at the deadline. No reason to draft one with a first-round pick in 2018.

 

[Lays]

Also, putting up big stats in the CHL is no guarantee to be a high pick, even for a defenseman like Bouchard.

Bode Wilde is an explosive player with better quickness and speed than Evan Bouchard, slightly better than Dobson.

Brady Skjei put up as many points in his NHL rookie season (39) as he did in his draft year with the NTDP and the three seasons at Minnesota -- Combined.



Shattenkirk will be almost 32 and a UFA when Merkley is 21.

Pionk and DeAngelo will be nearing UFA age when Merkley is 21.

They just acquired two young defensive defensemen at the deadline. No reason to draft one with a first-round pick in 2018.

We acquired 1 defensive dman (Lindgren but he’s not just a defense first kind of guy)
Hajek/Rykov are 2 way guys
Lindgren is also the worst out of them 3 and I don’t see top 4 upside in him as much as Rykov and Hajek, taking Merkley wouldn’t be a good idea and the Rangers have this character thing going on and want guys with leadership and work ethic etc which Merkley doesn’t fit. I’m willing to bet serious money we don’t draft him and I’m not a fan either

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Not that hard of a concept, people.

Dahlin-Svechnikov-Zadina are the consensus for picks 1, 2 and 3. Boqvist is not the consensus 4th pick but will be my No. 4 when the next rankings come out but could be higher on some at either 2 or 3. Hence, depending on a team's draft board, one of those four could "fall" to 4th overall.

I like your work but you don't have to double down on this. Unless Dahlin suffers a crippling injury before the draft and has to quit hockey, at least one of those three is guaranteed to be available at #4 - not could, not depending on team's draft boards.

 

[Fantomas]

What makes Boqvist better (in perception or reality) than Quinn Hughes? For a "fantastic offensive defenseman," I don't see fantastic results.

 

[Balthazar]

BPA and all but BUF need D above anything else, Habs need C or D and AVS certainly don't need another RHD.

 

[Tube Skates]

We acquired 1 defensive dman (Lindgren but he’s not just a defense first kind of guy)
Hajek/Rykov are 2 way guys
Lindgren is also the worst out of them 3 and I don’t see top 4 upside in him as much as Rykov and Hajek, taking Merkley wouldn’t be a good idea and the Rangers have this character thing going on and want guys with leadership and work ethic etc which Merkley doesn’t fit. I’m willing to bet serious money we don’t draft him and I’m not a fan either

Is Sean Day considered a total write off these days?

 

[Tripod]

Not that hard of a concept, people.

Dahlin-Svechnikov-Zadina are the consensus for picks 1, 2 and 3. Boqvist is not the consensus 4th pick but will be my No. 4 when the next rankings come out but could be higher on some at either 2 or 3. Hence, depending on a team's draft board, one of those four could "fall" to 4th overall.

That still makes no sense Steve.

The issue, if you are using the word "could"....when there is a 100% chance that one WILL fall to at least 4....because there is 4 guys. "Could" implies that there is a chance none do, and the math says that's impossible.

4 guys. 4 spots. One WILL fall to at least 4. Not "could".

But FWIW, I always enjoy reading your rankings and info,

 

[Frolov 6'3]

Is Sean Day considered a total write off these days?

I was wondering what the heck he was doing last Friday.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

BPA and all but BUF need D above anything else, Habs need C or D and AVS certainly don't need another RHD.

We fans always draft for need. The truth is GM's want immediate impact players, or the closest thing to it.

How a defenseman holds a stick would never stop a team from drafting a player at the top of their draft board. Winnipeg didn't need a winger, but took Laine anyway. Carolina certainly didn't need a defenseman, but took Bean anyway. Buffalo didn't need a center, but took Mittelstadt anyway. The Rangers didn't need Chytil, but took him anyway.

Did the Canucks need a winger like Pettersson? They already had Boeser and acquired Dahlen, plus had a void at center. IIRC, Glass, Mittelstadt and Vilardi were the popular names the fans wanted. It appears as though Benning drafted the biggest impact player with the shortest route to the NHL.

We acquired 1 defensive dman (Lindgren but he’s not just a defense first kind of guy)
Hajek/Rykov are 2 way guys
Lindgren is also the worst out of them 3 and I don’t see top 4 upside in him as much as Rykov and Hajek, taking Merkley wouldn’t be a good idea and the Rangers have this character thing going on and want guys with leadership and work ethic etc which Merkley doesn’t fit. I’m willing to bet serious money we don’t draft him and I’m not a fan either

Well the character thing didn't stop them from acquiring DeAngelo, who you used as a reason to not draft Merkley in the first place. Plus they drafted Day who was lazy and out of shape in his draft year.

I'm not saying it's a lock they draft Merkley. Far from it. But the Rangers are playing themselves out of the running for one of the elite puck movers and the extra late pick could be used to gamble on a player with elite skills.

What makes Boqvist better (in perception or reality) than Quinn Hughes? For a "fantastic offensive defenseman," I don't see fantastic results.

Boqvist is destroying the J20. Easily the league's most dominant defenseman.

I like Boqvist better. Taller, harder shot, smarter reads, higher upside. I'm not big into the age thing for first-year eligibles but in this specific case, Boqvist is almost a full year younger than Hughes. That also plays into it.

 

[Lays]

Is Sean Day considered a total write off these days?

Nope, not a potential top pairing dman but I see him similar to John Moore. His defense has improved and there’s no way he’s not an NHLer with his insane size and speed. Some Rangers fans are really high on him but I think realistically he can still be a 4/5. He’s progressing well