The Devils' Shootout Ineptitude

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

The Devils are 1/28 in shootout attempts this season. 3.6%.

That is horrifically bad. And while the Devils might not be a good shootout team, that type of performance is clearly the result of some horrendous luck.

In terms of historical performance, has any other team been close to as bad in a single season?

Click to read more...

 

[Bear of Bad News]

This is based upon the data that feeds http://hockeygoalies.org, so any errors in those data will appear here.

Since 2005-06, these are the top shootout teams over the course of a single season:

TEAM | GOALS | SAVES | MISSES | GOAL %
2012-13 Pittsburgh|6|2|0|75.0%
2012-13 St. Louis|14|5|3|63.6%
2012-13 Florida|5|3|0|62.5%
2012-13 Colorado|6|3|1|60.0%
2012-13 Minnesota|9|5|1|60.0%
2006-07 San Jose|7|5|0|58.3%
2005-06 Dallas|24|18|0|57.1%
2011-12 New Jersey|28|17|4|57.1%
2009-10 Pittsburgh|13|9|1|56.5%
2012-13 Washington|5|3|1|55.6%
2013-14 Edmonton|9|5|3|52.9%
2006-07 Atlanta|15|13|1|51.7%
2011-12 Colorado|15|14|0|51.7%
2008-09 Colorado|22|17|4|51.2%
2005-06 Carolina|17|17|0|50.0%
2005-06 Los Angeles|10|10|0|50.0%
2007-08 Carolina|7|5|2|50.0%
2007-08 Tampa Bay|6|5|1|50.0%
2009-10 Vancouver|12|8|4|50.0%
2012-13 Anaheim|15|12|3|50.0%
2012-13 Carolina|2|2|0|50.0%
2013-14 Toronto|17|12|6|48.6%
2011-12 Ottawa|16|14|3|48.5%
2005-06 Detroit|12|13|0|48.0%

For what it's worth, the historical goal percentage from 2005-06 through last night is 32.8%.

But that's not what you asked for, is it? Here are the worst teams in the same metric:

TEAM | GOALS | SAVES | MISSES | GOAL %
2011-12 Nashville|6|16|7|20.7%
2012-13 New Jersey|6|16|7|20.7%
2012-13 Tampa Bay|2|8|0|20.0%
2013-14 Boston|5|16|4|20.0%
2013-14 Dallas|7|21|7|20.0%
2011-12 St. Louis|9|26|11|19.6%
2011-12 Montreal|11|34|12|19.3%
2005-06 Ottawa|5|21|0|19.2%
2011-12 Carolina|4|12|5|19.0%
2013-14 Nashville|7|17|13|18.9%
2008-09 Florida|6|17|9|18.8%
2007-08 St. Louis|5|15|7|18.5%
2012-13 Calgary|2|9|0|18.2%
2010-11 Edmonton|8|29|9|17.4%
2005-06 Boston|6|30|0|16.7%
2005-06 Toronto|4|20|0|16.7%
2009-10 Tampa Bay|6|21|9|16.7%
2009-10 Dallas|12|43|20|16.0%
2013-14 Vancouver|8|29|13|16.0%
2010-11 Ottawa|3|13|6|13.6%
2006-07 Washington|5|32|3|12.5%
2012-13 Toronto|3|16|5|12.5%
2006-07 Philadelphia|2|26|0|7.1%
2006-07 Carolina|1|16|0|5.9%
2013-14 New Jersey|1|18|9|3.6%

So yes, New Jersey is historically bad this season (although they still have a chance to move up the list).

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Before you ask why there are 24 on the "good" list, and 25 on the "bad" list...

I realized that I forgot to take the 2008-09 Eastern Conference out of my good list, but I'd already deleted the Excel file.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

To answer predicted follow-ups.

Suppose that the Devils were a historically average team in the shootout, scoring at a 32.8% clip.

The odds that they would score once in 28 attempts (or worse) is about one in 4,650.

Conversely, the odds that the Penguins (at the top of the list) would score six times in 8 attempts (or better) is about one in 55.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Tracing back to last season the Devils are 7/57 in shootouts, or 12.3%.

This is after going 28/49, or 57.1%, in 2011-12.

Obviously the Devils aren't as good in shootouts without Kovalchuk and Parise, however a lot of that looks like a big correction from 11-12.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

1 for 30 now.

 

[GKJ]

I'm sure next year they'll turn it around and go 25 for 30

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Combination of a variety of factors - bad luck, unskilled shooters, low confidence, poor coaching choices.

Nothing more to say about bad luck - it's obviously a big factor for the numbers to go this low. But it isn't the only factor.

As for unskilled shooters, when the team was excellent at the shootouts a few years ago, it was largely because of Zach Parise, with Kovalchuk also doing well. The Parise-Kovalchuk-Elias lineup was killer. Now, they really lack high-skilled breakaway players other than Elias (who is slumping badly)

Lack of confidence - A couple of things to say. Cory Schneider is awful at the shootout - one of the worst I've ever seen, and Brodeur is obviously slower with age. So it puts a lot of pressure on the shooters. Patrik Elias in particular seems to have cracked under the pressure - he's always the closer, so he knows if he doesn't score it's over, and he's tried basically the same move over and over again, but keeps getting put out there last.

Poor coaching decisions - Why is Patrik Elias always the closer when he's clearly having issues? The coach keeps putting out the same basic lineup that keeps failing; why not change it up? The team trades for Tuomo Ruutu, who has great shootout stats and never uses him. The only shootout goal scored by the team this year was by a rookie, who was never given a chance in the shootout again even when in the lineup.

The Devils also apparently rarely practice the shootout (while other teams like Pittsburgh regularly practice it)

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Schneider's an interesting case:
http://www.hockeygoalies.org/bio/schneider.html

(data from the NHL SHOOTOUTS section of the page)

22 saves (including misses) on 35 attempts prior to this year, so a scoring average of about 37% (slightly higher than the 33% clip I mention above).

This year, 7 saves on 16 attempts (so a scoring average of 56%). Not quite statistically significant (compared with the Devils' shooting percentage, which is), but you've got to wonder - is he thinking "I've got to stop everything, because we aren't scoring" and putting too much pressure on himself?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Schneider's an interesting case:
http://www.hockeygoalies.org/bio/schneider.html

(data from the NHL SHOOTOUTS section of the page)

22 saves (including misses) on 35 attempts prior to this year, so a scoring average of about 37% (slightly higher than the 33% clip I mention above).

This year, 7 saves on 16 attempts (so a scoring average of 56%). Not quite statistically significant (compared with the Devils' shooting percentage, which is), but you've got to wonder - is he thinking "I've got to stop everything, because we aren't scoring" and putting too much pressure on himself?

This is kind of what I was getting at - both the shooters and the goalies are putting extra pressure on themselves because they don't trust the other to do their job. And the longer it goes on, the worse it gets. If they actually win a shootout, I would imagine it will take a ton of the pressure off.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Oh great - thanks a lot, Devils. There goes the record.

Love Jacob Josefson, by the way. Hoping he'll be a great player some day.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

They tripled their number of goals in the shootout this season and still lost.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

So 2-for-9 tonight puts them at 3-for-39, or about 8%.

They'd need twelve more attempts this year, going 0 for 12, to tie the futility record at this point.

Still more impressive from a binomial distribution perspective, I think.