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The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

Discussion in 'New York Rangers' started by Gardner McKay, Apr 20, 2018.

  1. Irishguy42

    Irishguy42 Registered User Sponsor

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    In that case...

    "hold down _____ and click to denote a shot in the color _____"

    That way, you can separate the shots by periods easily!
     
  2. silverfish

    silverfish Not a GM

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    But then you'll have two different teams shots on the same side of the ice? Doesn't really make sense to me but perhaps I'm misunderstanding.
     
  3. Irishguy42

    Irishguy42 Registered User Sponsor

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    Let's just say you're doing one team. You have the chart in front of you.

    Hold down 'A' and click for shots you want to denote as "Period 1 shots"

    Hold down 'S' and click for shots you want to denote as "Period 2 shots"

    Hold down...blah blah blah

    Oh oh oh. And then...have it be two layers on the plot. One layer for Team A and one layer for Team B, and then add in the one color for each period, but make it three different colors per team.

    And then give the option to view shots based on team or period.

    Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd I'vc made this more complicated than it needs to be.

    :dunno:
     
  4. Mac n Gs

    Mac n Gs Gorton plz

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  5. silverfish

    silverfish Not a GM

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    If I owned a team, I'd make a rule for my GM to never sign a guy destined for the fourth line for over $1m.

    Schaller gonna bring a team some good value next year on a < $1m AAV.

    Broken record: It's really not that hard to find good players anymore.
     
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  6. silverfish

    silverfish Not a GM

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    Been thinking a lot about the 1RD hole we have. It's not that I think Shattenkirk can't do it, but it seems... like a waste, for lack of a better term. Better to let Shattenkirk run wild as the 2RD then have him has the 1RD guy. The only other person in the organization I trust in that role is Smith, and you know how much LOL posting a taek like that would get if I posted it.

    So... How do we find the undervalued? I've been doing some very brief looking around, and for all the **** I've given him through no fault of his own, is Petrovic. Him and Weegar, actually. They got fed really "soft usage" though, but they crushed it. I'm not sure if we have a good way of estimating how a player will advance when their usage takes a jump... I'm not sure if we'll ever really have that. Could utilize dCorsi and things such as that to see if they truly crushed their expected in terms of evaluating whether or not they can be tested for a harder usage, but that's really it.

    Really not sure how the D shapes up next year. Especially with Staal still here. Gonna waste Shattenkirk on the 2nd pair carrying Staal around? HFNYR would have a conniption if it was Gilmour on the 2nd pairing with Shattenkirk and Staal on the third pairing with Pionk, but those are probably the right pairings as the organization is shaped right now, assuming none of the kids explode in camp and refuse to let the team cut them.

    Skjei - Smith
    Gilmour - Shattenkirk
    Staal - Pionk

    Looks so much better if we acquire a true 1RD

    Skjei -
    Smith - Shattenkirk
    Gilmour - Pionk
     
  7. SA16

    SA16 Sixstring

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    We will get the 1RHD with one of our top 3 picks in the next 5 years.
     
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  8. DanielBrassard

    DanielBrassard If it's not sophisticated, it's not Vigneault.

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    I have to imagine DeAngelo is going to play this season. He has too much talent and even though the Stepan trade is a sunk cost, I'm sure the Rangers would like to get something out of 1 of the 2 pieces they got for him and Raanta. I think the defense will be Skjei-Shattenkirk, Staal-Pionk, Smith-DeAngelo barring trades of Staal or Smith.
     
  9. Mac n Gs

    Mac n Gs Gorton plz

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    Is there a better compilation of transition defense stats? I think we should start adding those into analyses when we look at players, even if it’s a roughly SSS of games
     
  10. DanielBrassard

    DanielBrassard If it's not sophisticated, it's not Vigneault.

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    Like Corey Sznadjer's stats? He's the best out there that I have seen.
     
  11. DanielBrassard

    DanielBrassard If it's not sophisticated, it's not Vigneault.

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    BTW, I just saw this:

    How is it possible that Jack Johnson gets that type of contract?
     
  12. GeorgeKaplan

    GeorgeKaplan Registered User

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    I think it’s a mix of the Canadiens being terrible talent evaluators and Johnson being one of those players that’s reputation is way higher than his results (ex: Backes, Lucic, Alzner, Girardi, etc)
     
  13. DanielBrassard

    DanielBrassard If it's not sophisticated, it's not Vigneault.

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    It's not just the Canadiens who are interested in him, which is the sad part. I would definitely agree with your second sentence, that's obviously true. But there are better defenseman like De Haan and Kempny who are probably not going to be anywhere close to that salary.

    Honestly wouldn't mind the Rangers going after Kempny.
     
  14. Mac n Gs

    Mac n Gs Gorton plz

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    Yes, but I'm pretty sure most of his stuff is behind a paywall, right?
     
  15. Irishguy42

    Irishguy42 Registered User Sponsor

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    Teams are counting on his parents to take about half of it, so in reality, he's being paid $3M
     
  16. jas

    jas Unsatisfied

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    The obvious answer for 1D is...

    Pionk

    :cool:
     
  17. silverfish

    silverfish Not a GM

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    I have no confidence in ADA making the roster in October, and suspect he'll be out of the organization by January.

    Wouldn't surprise me.
     
  18. Mac n Gs

    Mac n Gs Gorton plz

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    Why though regarding ADA? He played some really good hockey in his second stint and got super unlucky with his injury.

    Which RD do we have that’ll supercede him in getting a top-6 spot? Kampfer? He’s our best bet at having a sustained PP qb and offense-oriented dman for the future
     
  19. silverfish

    silverfish Not a GM

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    I don't know, gut feeling. Could see it both ways with Quinn having enough patience or not having enough patience as his first NHL gig. But if we're including Smith as a RD, then Smith.
     
  20. Mac n Gs

    Mac n Gs Gorton plz

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    I’d argue that the odds are higher that Smith never wears a Rangers uniform again compared to Deangelo.

    Quinn has a track record for patience with things like this and it can be seen in how he handled Shattenkirk in the AHL. It does seem like our younger guys will be given more leeway to grow and develop in these upcoming years. The mistakes may drive us nuts, but that’s how they’ll learn and get better.

    Regarding Petrovic or Weegar, Weegar has had steadily improving numbers on a yearly basis. I’d buy on him over Petrovic
     
  21. silverfish

    silverfish Not a GM

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    Probably a good bet.

    I don't know, man. On the surface, I should be ADA's biggest supporter. Good underlying numbers. Lots of skill. Some weird behavior on the ice (and off, but whatever), but he still gets his job done. Why don't I like him?

    I don't know. Probably because the Stepan trade was dumb as ****.
     
  22. Mac n Gs

    Mac n Gs Gorton plz

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    Sigh, I’ve come to terms with it in regards of rooting for Lias and ADA, but I’m still bitter about losing Stepan. Yes the trade was stupid, but if those kids pan out it’ll be worth it in the long-run, IMO. I don’t want to turn this into a trade evaluation topic because we’ve gone over that in the past and we’ve both kinda just agreed to disagree.
     
  23. silverfish

    silverfish Not a GM

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    See avatar
     
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  24. DanielBrassard

    DanielBrassard If it's not sophisticated, it's not Vigneault.

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    Tableau Public

    Here you go Mac, @CJTdevil on twitter has compiled all the data
     
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  25. silverfish

    silverfish Not a GM

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    Running down the list of players who have good relTxGA60 metrics, shoot right handed, are maybe available, and can maybe handle 1RD duties. inb4 @LiasAndersson thinks this post is me listing "elite" d-men.

    Dougie
    Petry (probably not available, but hey, Bergevin)
    Pysyk (probably not available)
    Pateryn
    Murphy
    Dotchin (probably not available)
    Tanev

    Not a pretty list based off of this criteria, at least.

    Actually... maybe Dotchin is available? That'd be a good get, I think. Someone remind me to run the tool on him when I get home. On further analysis, he may be a product of Hedman.

    Michael Stone
    Mark Fayne
    Derek Joslin (who)
    Olli Maata
    Patrik Nemeth
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018

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