The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

Status
Not open for further replies.

DanielBrassard

It's all so tiresome
May 6, 2014
22,401
19,996
PA from SI
We already traded McDonagh, Nash, Grabner, and Holden. There's nothing more we can do to lose games. The only reason we're winning games is because Georgiev has been Hasek for a couple of weeks.

Let's not humiliate ourselves more than we already have to pick 8th instead of 11th. Our goaltending won't let us be that bad. That's just the reality.

This draft is loaded and we have five 1st's/early 2nd's. If we don't get top-tier talent out of this, we blew it. The opportunity is already there.
Mac n Gs just laid out a scenario where there is more the Rangers could do to lose games. I don't particularly care about humiliation, I just want what would be best for the future of this team, which includes next season. I'm aware that the players won't give up, and perhaps the team is "too good" to tank, although they are still a 45%CF team at the moment, which isn't even good. But that doesn't mean it's a good outcome, as SF said, there is no reason not to be trying to lose as much as possible the rest of the season. As far as the draft being loaded and that we should get top-tier talent with the picks we have, I would have liked our odds a lot more if the team actually lost games.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,213
109,655
NYC
Mac n Gs just laid out a scenario where there is more the Rangers could do to lose games. I don't particularly care about humiliation, I just want what would be best for the future of this team, which includes next season. I'm aware that the players won't give up, and perhaps the team is "too good" to tank, although they are still a 45%CF team at the moment, which isn't even good. But that doesn't mean it's a good outcome, as SF said, there is no reason not to be trying to lose as much as possible the rest of the season. As far as the draft being loaded and that we should get top-tier talent with the picks we have, I would have liked our odds a lot more if the team actually lost games.

We're already playing O'Gara over better options and Pionk has sucked this year as much as nobody wants to admit it.

It is what it is. This team isn't getting any worse and neither is their goaltending.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,213
109,655
NYC
The issue with the way the NHL is set up right now is that there is no incentive to not be that team. If you're not going to make the playoffs, there is no benefit to winning games. As logical as I like to consider myself, sometimes, it'll be over my dead body before I legitimately root for this team to lose games.

The NHL tried to go against this by blowing the **** out of the lottery system, but until they go to something like the gold system, well, yeah.

I would love that. It would make all 82 games exciting for all 31 teams, but this is the No Fun League.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,213
109,655
NYC
Also, I would argue a coach actually trying to lose games would make decisions more conducive to winning than AV does, and we still made the playoffs the last two years :laugh:
 

Harbour Dog

Registered User
Jul 16, 2015
10,236
12,821
St. John's
We're already playing O'Gara over better options and Pionk has sucked this year as much as nobody wants to admit it.

It is what it is. This team isn't getting any worse and neither is their goaltending.

Not to mention, we've played our 22 year old back up goalie with five games of experience for three straight games.

As soon as we announced that we were trading off guys, people assumed that we were automatically as bad as Arizona and Edmonton and the rest of the bottom feeders. That's simply not the case; it takes years of tanking to get that shitty, not just a month or so.

Maybe if we really blow it up. Trade Kreider, ZBad, Zucc, and Hayes, maybe then we can finally compete for that lottery pick.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,213
109,655
NYC
Not to mention, we've played our 22 year old back up goalie with five games of experience for three straight games.

As soon as we announced that we were trading off guys, people assumed that we were automatically as bad as Arizona and Edmonton and the rest of the bottom feeders. That's simply not the case; it takes years of tanking to get that ****ty, not just a month or so.

Maybe if we really blow it up. Trade Kreider, ZBad, Zucc, and Hayes, maybe then we can finally compete for that lottery pick.

And then we won't make the playoffs for ten years and I wish I could live that out in an alternate universe to see how ecstatic everyone is then.
 

TheDirtyH

Registered User
Jul 5, 2013
6,212
6,668
Chicago
I would love that. It would make all 82 games exciting for all 31 teams, but this is the No Fun League.

There are too many teams that, unlike the Rangers whose complaint is in being too good to get better through top picks, have so much more to overcome in order to obtain and keep elite talent on their rosters. The NHL is better than many leagues with the hard cap but without revenue sharing or any way to ensure small markets can annually spend to comparable levels as mega-market teams like NYR, TOR, etc, it's totally unfair to establish the draft order this way imo.

Obviously teams like Arizona, Buffalo, or Carolina can still f*** it up. But winning the lottery is also their only real shot to compete to an extent.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,213
109,655
NYC
One problem with the Gold System - you're accumulating points after mathematical elimination. There's 11 games left and you can count on one hand the teams actually eliminated. There's 22 points still on the board. Realistically, half the league gone, but you can't measure that. So really, it would be based on a 5-7 game sample.

Instead, I think it should be after the deadline. Or better yet, just flip the non-playoff teams. Last team eliminated picks first overall.

Frankly, I'm not sure the worst teams need the head start. Edmonton, Buffalo, and Arizona have had top 5 pick after top 5 pick and they've done nothing. I'm sick of them. If you're that inept, you don't deserve lottery picks.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,213
109,655
NYC
There are too many teams that, unlike the Rangers whose complaint is in being too good to get better through top picks, have so much more to overcome in order to obtain and keep elite talent on their rosters. The NHL is better than many leagues with the hard cap but without revenue sharing or any way to ensure small markets can annually spend to comparable levels as mega-market teams like NYR, TOR, etc, it's totally unfair to establish the draft order this way imo.

Obviously teams like Arizona, Buffalo, or Carolina can still **** it up. But winning the lottery is also their only real shot to compete to an extent.

They should ditch the hard cap and have revenue sharing instead. Let the rich teams spend and then they'll be bankrolling the poor teams.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TheDirtyH

silverfish

got perma'd
Jun 24, 2008
34,644
4,353
under the bridge
One problem with the Gold System - you're accumulating points after mathematical elimination. There's 11 games left and you can count on one hand the teams actually eliminated. There's 22 points still on the board. Realistically, half the league gone, but you can't measure that. So really, it would be based on a 5-7 game sample.

Instead, I think it should be after the deadline. Or better yet, just flip the non-playoff teams. Last team eliminated picks first overall.

Frankly, I'm not sure the worst teams need the head start. Edmonton, Buffalo, and Arizona have had top 5 pick after top 5 pick and they've done nothing. I'm sick of them. If you're that inept, you don't deserve lottery picks.
I saw something interesting on Twitter recently, I forget who did it, but someone posted the fact that basically teams with early 2nd rounders tend to f*** up those picks. When you think about it, well, it's not that difficult to realize why.

These are the teams who were bad enough to get these picks. It's easy to not f*** up a top-5 pick, but it's not as easy to do that with picks 31-35. You have to be bad to finish last in the league. If you're bad, you're bad.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Machinehead

TheDirtyH

Registered User
Jul 5, 2013
6,212
6,668
Chicago
Frankly, I'm not sure the worst teams need the head start. Edmonton, Buffalo, and Arizona have had top 5 pick after top 5 pick and they've done nothing. I'm sick of them. If you're that inept, you don't deserve lottery picks.

Some markets need a selling point at minimum. And a top new talent can be that.

(Also I mainly quoted you to correct you bc Arizona has only ever picked top 5 three times and never higher than #3OA. I've got a lot of love for AZ for no real reason, so I don't like them lumped in with Edmonton who basically ruined the lottery in the first place.)
 
  • Like
Reactions: SniperHF

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,213
109,655
NYC
Some markets need a selling point at minimum. And a top new talent can be that.

(Also I mainly quoted you to correct you bc Arizona has only ever picked top 5 three times and never higher than #3OA. I've got a lot of love for AZ for no real reason, so I don't like them lumped in with Edmonton who basically ruined the lottery in the first place.)

I feel bad for their fans that do participate but I'm sure anything is going to get people to show up at that arena. I think that team is dead.
 

GeorgeKaplan

Registered User
Dec 19, 2011
9,094
8,376
New Jersey
I think the biggest problem in regards to tanking is that the theoretical superstar player you’re getting with that pick (not even going to get into strength of draft year right now) is, at most, going to be playing anywhere between 18-25 minutes a night, games can change in that time span, but hockey isn’t like other sports where your best player plays 50%+ of the game.
 

GeorgeKaplan

Registered User
Dec 19, 2011
9,094
8,376
New Jersey
I feel bad for their fans that do participate but I'm sure anything is going to get people to show up at that arena. I think that team is dead.
If they had gotten Matthews I think it would’ve been a completely different story, a for real homegrown talent like that is a PR dream
 

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
22,580
12,822
2 OA on third try
1 OA on fifth try

Good day for NYR
Tank full steam ahead!!!!

Also, thar point you made about bad teams f***int up their early 2nd round picks was interesting. The Oilers, Sabres, Canadiens, and Isles are shockingly terrible at drafting there. The Ducks and Preds aren’t. Shows how bad teams can help rebound with good drafting. We’ve seen how it hasn’t helped us with the Nieves, Halverson, and Gropp picks. If we had our pick last year, we could’ve nabbed a kid like Ikonen or Ian Mitchell, but c’est la vie.

I’m fully expecting our 3rd to be used as currency to move up one of our first rounders. Maybe even our 2nd will be used to trade back. We definitely have the pieces to make draft day fun
 

Irishguy42

Mr. Preachy
Sep 11, 2015
26,789
19,036
NJ
2 OA on third try
1 OA on fifth try

Good day for NYR
.
fVtHvLR.gif
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mac n Gs

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
22,580
12,822
I wonder how much different xGF models would be if we could factor in puck and goalie movement prior to a shot attempt
 

silverfish

got perma'd
Jun 24, 2008
34,644
4,353
under the bridge
I wonder how much different xGF models would be if we could factor in puck and goalie movement prior to a shot attempt
I don't envision any world where this exists. Puck movement, probably. Goalie movement? No way. The level of sophistication and amount of data that would take would be absurd.
 

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
22,580
12,822
I don't envision any world where this exists. Puck movement, probably. Goalie movement? No way. The level of sophistication and amount of data that would take would be absurd.
Or maybe %net open? Idk, something similar to what Valiquette does with CSA. He had that little clip showing Georgiev behind 8 feet out to stop a Tarasenko wrist shot. I think some of this stuff is already being done, but it’s just all proprietary
 

silverfish

got perma'd
Jun 24, 2008
34,644
4,353
under the bridge
In other news, we are the 31st CF% 5v5 team in the league, and are a full 1% behind Ottawa, #30. For reference, adding 1% to Ottawa would move them from 30th to 25th in the league. (Corsica.Hockey)
 

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
22,580
12,822
In other news, we are the 31st CF% 5v5 team in the league, and are a full 1% behind Ottawa, #30. For reference, adding 1% to Ottawa would move them from 30th to 25th in the league. (Corsica.Hockey)
We’re 2 f***ing standard deviations away from league average. Two. f***ing. Standard. Deviations.

I could live with favoring quality over quantity if we were about middle of the pack in the overall shot attempt battle like Winnipeg, but much better in the quality battle. We’re in a league of our own at the shot attempt battle
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->