The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

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Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,276
109,807
NYC
The problem with new ideas questioning old beliefs is that people don't generally enjoy admitting they were wrong.

Which is why @Machinehead @Raspewtin and myself fought to the death re: Girardi circa three years ago. I was wrong.

But you were right on JT Miller, and you started that one all alone :D

Happens to all of us. I can't count how many times I've been wrong. Even with all the evidence and analytics in the world, I still mess things up. It's the beauty of this sport.

The problem I have with some GM's and coaches is that they make the same exact mistakes over and over again. The game is a better place when we admit we were wrong and leave outdated thoughts at the door.
 

DanielBrassard

It's all so tiresome
May 6, 2014
22,416
20,014
PA from SI
Honest question. Do you guys think that if we had the 2014 team now (at the same ages as 2014) we'd have fewer posters thinking it preposterous that Stralman should play with McDonagh like some have suggested and were roundly mocked? And fewer posters that would think that Girardi was a better defenseman? Obviously in this situation Stralman and Girardi at least up to now haven't played for the Bolts. Do you think that acceptance of analytics has grown since then?
It would be more palatable to people, but there would still be some that would have problems with it.
 

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
22,580
12,822
Listen, cool by me. Cool by me as long as everyone doesn't forget how **** this team was managed this year. Which we will. Because we suck.
I got it in 4, so jokes on you. AV getting shitcanned will be nice retribution for this season. I can't handle watching three guys chase pucks below the goal line anymore. Even if you want to view defense as a % of area covered to prevent scoring chances, he still opts to coach to leave 65%+ open for other teams to exploit.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,276
109,807
NYC
It's not that Lias can't be a great piece but people are obsessed with this idea that elite players are exclusively top 10 picks and we unquestionably got the higher ceiling player at 21.
 

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
22,580
12,822
You need top-10 picks to get elite talent.
Rangers get top-ten pick, proceed to draft "safe" player
What a pick!

:)

EDIT - Just ot avoid a potential LA meltdown, he's having a much better D+1 year than I expected.
Hey, you set a realistic expectation and he’s exceded it up to this point. You did exactly what people should be doing, but it’s impossible to stop the hot takes when people overreact to limited viewings from things like the WJC.

I also don’t like using the word tanking because it’s really not what we’re doing. And anyways, shouldn’t we be trying to get as good of a lottery spot as possible right now since we’re all but eliminated from the playoffs? Didn’t Micah McCurdy write something about this recently?
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,276
109,807
NYC
Hey, you set a realistic expectation and he’s exceded it up to this point. You did exactly what people should be doing, but it’s impossible to stop the hot takes when people overreact to limited viewings from things like the WJC.

I also don’t like using the word tanking because it’s really not what we’re doing. And anyways, shouldn’t we be trying to get as good of a lottery spot as possible right now since we’re all but eliminated from the playoffs? Didn’t Micah McCurdy write something about this recently?

There's nothing we can really do to accomplish that. Nobody is going to try to lose.
 

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
22,580
12,822
There's nothing we can really do to accomplish that. Nobody is going to try to lose.
I mean they could send down kids like Pionk and Gilmour for Crawley and Labrie. Start Halverson instead of Georgiev, etc.

Someone said it on twitter, but they’re on a PDO binge at the worst time
 

DanielBrassard

It's all so tiresome
May 6, 2014
22,416
20,014
PA from SI
I don't wanna be that team
I don't want to be the team that can never gets top-tier talent outside of a miracle 7th round pick. Winning games right now does nothing for the future of the franchise and I don't think it creates some sort of magical winning culture when a decent portion of these guys won't be on the team in the next couple of seasons anyway.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,276
109,807
NYC
I don't want to be the team that can never gets top-tier talent outside of a miracle 7th round pick. Winning games right now does nothing for the future of the franchise and I don't think it creates some sort of magical winning culture when a decent portion of these guys won't be on the team in the next couple of seasons anyway.

We already traded McDonagh, Nash, Grabner, and Holden. There's nothing more we can do to lose games. The only reason we're winning games is because Georgiev has been Hasek for a couple of weeks.

Let's not humiliate ourselves more than we already have to pick 8th instead of 11th. Our goaltending won't let us be that bad. That's just the reality.

This draft is loaded and we have five 1st's/early 2nd's. If we don't get top-tier talent out of this, we blew it. The opportunity is already there.
 

silverfish

got perma'd
Jun 24, 2008
34,644
4,353
under the bridge
I don't wanna be that team
The issue with the way the NHL is set up right now is that there is no incentive to not be that team. If you're not going to make the playoffs, there is no benefit to winning games. As logical as I like to consider myself, sometimes, it'll be over my dead body before I legitimately root for this team to lose games.

The NHL tried to go against this by blowing the shit out of the lottery system, but until they go to something like the gold system, well, yeah.
 
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