The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[Bob Richards]

Someone break out their Moneyball book.

Love sabremetrics and have gotten in plenty an argument by saying that some stats we hold so dear are really not as valuable or valuable at all compared to what we have now.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Hopefully Nash is still open to coming back, I would love him back

Boston fits him like a glove though.

It's so funny to see Boston fans who were whining a couple weeks ago about trading for Nash, now saying they are in love with him

 

[Machinehead]

This is a good question that I don't know the answer to...

@Machinehead ?

It's also a different time... you see some of the public guys who have big reaches on Twitter, or via their website, get hired, and the teams that hire them have them take down their Twitter and their site. I get it. And I can definitely imagine if Sabermetrics in baseball popped up in the age of Twitter, that we'd see something very similar.

Even more so in MLB because things are tighter.

Laughed at first, then mainstream, then when literally everyone was doing it, teams tried to find proprietary methods to gain an edge.

Thing is, these edges tend to be small because it's been beaten to death and we're running out of secrets. Getting on base is good, homeruns are good. Like, it's not rocket science. The analytics on individual pitches and swings such as spin rate and exit velo gave baseball a second revolution but it was overnight before literally everyone was doing that too. I'm not sure what's left that's proprietary.

I think lack of new content is even more true for hockey. Shooting is good - that's 90% of the battle. We've run out of secrets. I'm sure Chayka has something that gives him a bit more insight and as analytics take over, that small edge counts. That being said, I doubt it's some shit from Jupiter that we've never even imagined before.

Could hockey evolve a second time like baseball did in the statcast era? I think it's possible, but we're far away. Before you change the analytics, you need everyone already using the old analytics so new analytics give you an edge. I still think we're at a point where using analytics at all gives you an edge.

If a baseball manager played an inferior player because he works hard, he'd be blackballed from MLB. That type of coaching is still encouraged in hockey.

In baseball, you need to reinvent the art constantly in a room full of Picasso's. In the NHL, half the league is still doing coloring books.

Yes, every NHL team listens to nerds, but at the end of the day, the Vigneault's and Bergevin's have final say. Cashman and Boone are the nerds.

 

[Machinehead]

Someone break out their Moneyball book.

Love sabremetrics and have gotten in plenty an argument by saying that some stats we hold so dear are really not as valuable or valuable at all compared to what we have now.

Moneyball came out during a time when striking out was frowned upon because putting the ball in play gave you probability on a variety of events which had zero probability on a strikeout.

Now they don't care, because the ideal is to have 20+ homers from every batter. It makes sense, because what Moneyball did was first take us from the era of driving in runs, to the era of creating runs. Homers are perfect run creation. Everyone scores and recording an out is impossible.

 

[silverfish]

Here's a dumb question... looked like there was a 4th coach on the bench tonight? Who was that?

 

[Bob Richards]

Mika and Kreider are bananas.

 

[Irishguy42]

Here's a dumb question... looked like there was a 4th coach on the bench tonight? Who was that?

Picture?

Could have been Dineen?

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

They have 3 assistant/associate coaches

Ruff
Arniel
And Williams

So maybe it was Williams. I have no clue what he looks like

 

[Machinehead]

Here's a dumb question... looked like there was a 4th coach on the bench tonight? Who was that?

Trick question.

There are actually zero NHL coaches on our bench.

 

[Irishguy42]

They have 3 assistant/associate coaches

Ruff
Arniel
And Williams

So maybe it was Williams. I have no clue what he looks like

Oh that's true. I forgot Williams.

 

[silverfish]

They have 3 assistant/associate coaches

Ruff
Arniel
And Williams

So maybe it was Williams. I have no clue what he looks like

Yep, definitely Williams. Good call.

 

[silverfish]

The Neil Pionk praise-machine hitting the national level is a really interesting thing that's happening. He's eating minutes, and by every measurable metric, excluding luck, he's getting crushed by them.

The easiest way to evaluate a player via the `eye-test` is, well, who do you see out there the most? Pionk has been playing 20 minutes a night. He's more likely to do some noticeable things with more ice time. People remember those things. People forget the shifts that he's on the ice where we're giving up 5 or more attempts.

Pionk thread is unreadable.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I like Pionk a lot but the mainstream praise he is getting is surprising

Brooks writing that he has leap forged DeAngelo on the depth chart is interesting. I though they’ve both played decent in the stretch they’ve been with the team, but wouldn’t be able to give a clear advantage to one or the other

Maybe it’s because AV seems to trust Pionk more.

 

[Uncle Dru]

The Neil Pionk praise-machine hitting the national level is a really interesting thing that's happening. He's eating minutes, and by every measurable metric, excluding luck, he's getting crushed by them.

The easiest way to evaluate a player via the `eye-test` is, well, who do you see out there the most? Pionk has been playing 20 minutes a night. He's more likely to do some noticeable things with more ice time. People remember those things. People forget the shifts that he's on the ice where we're giving up 5 or more attempts.

Pionk thread is unreadable.

Could be misinterpreting, or just flat out reading this ass backwards, but with Pionk on ice, it looks like it's the left side where we're getting bludgeoned based on unblocked shot locations...

https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWi/1718/NYR/pionkne95/

 

[Mac n Gs]

Does anyone have his game-by-game splits? Idk if it’s the best metric to use, but his xFsv% is pretty high compared to the rest of the team, even with his bad xGA.

I still think it can be boiled down to a SSS, playing on an awful team, with an awful coach.

 

[silverfish]

Does anyone have his game-by-game splits? Idk if it’s the best metric to use, but his xFsv% is pretty high compared to the rest of the team, even with his bad xGA.

I still think it can be boiled down to a SSS, playing on an awful team, with an awful coach.

That's very Girardi, no? A lot of quantity but not a lot of quality, but the amount of quantity equals quality? Yeah. Girardi last year was dead last, by a long shot, in relCA60, but 2nd on the team in RelxFSv%

Sample size is definitely an issue. Playing for AV in this usage is definitely an issue. But his rel and relT metrics suck. I'd be much more inclined to label him maybe a potential 4D and not throw names like Ryan Ellis or Torey Krug around.

 

[Mac n Gs]

That's very Girardi, no? A lot of quantity but not a lot of quality, but the amount of quantity equals quality? Yeah. Girardi last year was dead last, by a long shot, in relCA60, but 2nd on the team in RelxFSv%

Sample size is definitely an issue. Playing for AV in this usage is definitely an issue. But his rel and relT metrics suck. I'd be much more inclined to label him maybe a potential 4D and not throw names like Ryan Ellis or Torey Krug around.

If anyone actually thinks that’s what he’ll be, then they’re gonna be severely disappointed. I really don’t understand how people set this crazy expectations for these players, but I’ve always been under the scope that he can top out as a second pairing guy with the likelihood that he’ll be a solid third pairing RD.

 

[Machinehead]

If anyone actually thinks that’s what he’ll be, then they’re gonna be severely disappointed. I really don’t understand how people set this crazy expectations for these players, but I’ve always been under the scope that he can top out as a second pairing guy with the likelihood that he’ll be a solid third pairing RD.

People are still waiting for Kreider to go on an 82 game point streak

 

[Machinehead]

The Neil Pionk praise-machine hitting the national level is a really interesting thing that's happening. He's eating minutes, and by every measurable metric, excluding luck, he's getting crushed by them.

The easiest way to evaluate a player via the `eye-test` is, well, who do you see out there the most? Pionk has been playing 20 minutes a night. He's more likely to do some noticeable things with more ice time. People remember those things. People forget the shifts that he's on the ice where we're giving up 5 or more attempts.

Pionk thread is unreadable.

 

[Machinehead]

Speaking of Kreider, since I'm a "nerd" who appreciates skill and tangible contribution, everyone thinks I hate size. I love size.

What I don't like, is size for the sake of size. If he does nothing and he's 6'4", he's every bit as worthless as a player who does nothing and is 5'8". If the 5'8" player is a 4th line NHL quality player, and the 6'4" player is absolutely worthless, than the 5'8" player is significantly better.

But if a guy knows how to use his size to actually be good at hockey, then that's a very good thing. Kreider could teach a master class on that. He's unbeatable along the boards, he parks his ass right in the HDSC wheelhouse, and he uses his giant rear end to shield the puck on zone entries better than just about anyone (hi, Rick Nash).

Kreider isn't the most skilled guy in the world, that's true, but he's smart and effectively big. He's HF's dream player but they don't even realize it.

 

[DanielBrassard]

The Neil Pionk praise-machine hitting the national level is a really interesting thing that's happening. He's eating minutes, and by every measurable metric, excluding luck, he's getting crushed by them.

The easiest way to evaluate a player via the `eye-test` is, well, who do you see out there the most? Pionk has been playing 20 minutes a night. He's more likely to do some noticeable things with more ice time. People remember those things. People forget the shifts that he's on the ice where we're giving up 5 or more attempts.

Pionk thread is unreadable.

It's interesting how narratives are crafted and then just seemingly explode no matter what. And then if you try to add in some counterbalancing opinion, well, you are a hater.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Speaking of Kreider, since I'm a "nerd" who appreciates skill and tangible contribution, everyone thinks I hate size. I love size.

What I don't like, is size for the sake of size. If he does nothing and he's 6'4", he's every bit as worthless as a player who does nothing and is 5'8". If the 5'8" player is a 4th line NHL quality player, and the 6'4" player is absolutely worthless, than the 5'8" player is significantly better.

But if a guy knows how to use his size to actually be good at hockey, then that's a very good thing. Kreider could teach a master class on that. He's unbeatable along the boards, he parks his ass right in the HDSC wheelhouse, and he uses his giant rear end to shield the puck on zone entries better than just about anyone (hi, Rick Nash).

Kreider isn't the most skilled guy in the world, that's true, but he's smart and effectively big. He's HF's dream player but they don't even realize it.

Well, that’s because he tried to kill St. Carey Price.

 

[silverfish]

Kreider is this team's best skater, besides Pionk of course, and it's really not up for debate. That dude makes the team go.

 

[Irishguy42]

Kreider is literally Rangers Jesus.

Except for looks. The closest we have for that is Zucc.

 

[aufheben]

Guys, I would like to compile all our available links for hockey stats resources, and add them all to the OP.

Brady Skjei is John Moore update:

[Corsica.Hockey, 5v5 unadjusted]

Ignore the `-` in the relTCF60 metric, I'm too lazy to fix.

I'm tellin you guys, it's not as far-fetched as people like to believe.

You're not alone on this opinion, silverfish.