The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[Thirty One]

And he spent 8 years being Chris Tanev.

Shouldn't a "top 10 D of all time" like, not do that?

He got all of his notoriety and individual awards as a Devil. Nobody gave a **** about him on the Capitals. And yet we'll use point totals from Washington to defend his deficiencies in New Jersey. I don't think it works that way.

Are you saying Chris Tanev isn't a top 10 D of all time?

 

[aufheben]

How good could he possibly be at defending?

Realistically, how much better could he be at defending than Drew Doughty, Hampus Lindholm, Marc Edouard Vlasic, and Duncan Keith who all produce more than Stevens did the second half of his career?

He was a very good player, but not a Hall of Fame player. And he doesn't sniff the top 10 D of all time. He wasn't a top 10 D in the NHL when he was playing.

Leetch
Chelios
Pronger
Bourque
Lidstrom
Niedermeyer
Blake
Coffey
Murphy
MacInnis

He wasn't better than any of those guys.

1. You're comparing player abilities across different eras.
2. Duncan Keith IS a Hall of Famer.
3. You're calling a defenseman who is 12th all time in points (and 11th in the playoffs) at his position offensively deficient.
4. There is a difference between being "not-Ray-Bourque" and being "Chris Tanev".

908P (12th Points by D-men)
1,635GP (2nd Games Played [only 16GP behind Chelios, who played until he was like forty-f***ing-eight])
118P (11th Playoff Points by D-men)
233GP (3rd Playoff Games Played)
1x Conn Smythe
3x Stanley Cup
5x All-Star

Of course the guy is in the Hall of Fame FFS. You also keep dismissing his career as a Capital even though he was an All-Star before joining the Devils, and, (at the time), had set a million records for the Capitals.

Also it's weird that you have Niedermayer above Stevens considering the thread discussion you've previously referenced was a Leetch vs. Niedermayer poll, and Scott Niedermayer is widely known as overrated.

Hell, when the Devils won the Cup in 2003 he was the third best D on his own team.

That was like...the year before he retired.

 

[aufheben]

And what does all this Scott Stevens stuff have to do with advanced stats to begin with?

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

And what does all this Scott Stevens stuff have to do with advanced stats to begin with?

Jeez don't you read ?

This thread is a safe haven for us brave enough to come in

 

[Machinehead]

1. You're comparing player abilities across different eras.
2. Duncan Keith IS a Hall of Famer.
3. You're calling a defenseman who is 12th all time in points (and 11th in the playoffs) at his position offensively deficient.
4. There is a difference between being "not-Ray-Bourque" and being "Chris Tanev".

908P (12th Points by D-men)
1,635GP (2nd Games Played [only 16GP behind Chelios, who played until he was like forty-****ing-eight])
118P (11th Playoff Points by D-men)
233GP (3rd Playoff Games Played)
1x Conn Smythe
3x Stanley Cup
5x All-Star

Of course the guy is in the Hall of Fame FFS. You also keep dismissing his career as a Capital even though he was an All-Star before joining the Devils, and, (at the time), had set a million records for the Capitals.

Also it's weird that you have Niedermayer above Stevens considering the thread discussion you've previously referenced was a Leetch vs. Niedermayer poll, and Scott Niedermayer is widely known as overrated.

That was like...the year before he retired.

He is offensively deficient. Compared to Joe Buttpants on the third pair, he's not, but for the hype he gets and for a "top 10 all-time D" he's offensively deficient.

I would hope that after 1,635 games he's high on the list of raw totals. He's still a 0.55 PPG player which is inflated by playing during the Gretzky era. Keith and Doughty are putting up those numbers now in a significantly lower scoring NHL.

He put up points in an era where third liners were posting 60 points. As the DPE approached, his peers outclassed him offensively. I didn't say he wasn't a good player, but there's a handful of defensemen today who blow him away, he was never the best on his own team, and he wasn't top 10 in the league when he played. This is a guy who is routinely placed top 10-15 all-time.

Niedermeyer might be somewhat overrated but I never understood the idea that was more overrated than Stevens. Niedermeyer was a skilled, two-way D. Stevens was a slow stay-at-home D who nobody would remember if he didn't have more concussions handed out than goals scored.

 

[Machinehead]

Jeez don't you read ?

This thread is a safe haven for us brave enough to come in

Pretty much

 

[Machinehead]

I agree with @silverfish on Pionk.

IMO, ADA has just been extremely unlucky this year. I've liked his game.

I don't think he's anything to wet yourself over, but I have no doubt that he'll be an NHL player and I'd so much rather have him as our #4-6 for the next however many years than some f***ing corpse that blocks shots and chips the puck off boards.

 

[Mac n Gs]

You’re reading too much into a SSS re: Pionk and your stubborness on the topic is so goddamn frustrating. The team is ass and he’s asked to play the hardest minutes of his career. It’s the bloody obvious test, you don’t need the stats to explain it right now. If he still has bad stats next year, then I’ll worry.

Also, Stevens didn’t score a lot during the Dead Puck Era. Surprise? I also cannot believe you can even mention Niedermayer being somewhat overrated. That’s insanity.

 

[TheDirtyH]

Does Stevens have to be top 10 all time to be HHOF worthy?

 

[Machinehead]

You’re reading too much into a SSS re: Pionk and your stubborness on the topic is so goddamn frustrating. The team is ass and he’s asked to play the hardest minutes of his career. It’s the bloody obvious test, you don’t need the stats to explain it right now. If he still has bad stats next year, then I’ll worry.

Also, Stevens didn’t score a lot during the Dead Puck Era. Surprise? I also cannot believe you can even mention Niedermayer being somewhat overrated. That’s insanity.

You know who did score a lot during the Dead Puck Era?

Leetch
Chelios
Pronger
Bourque
Lidstrom
Niedermeyer
Blake
Coffey
Murphy
MacInnis
The New Jersey Devils

Niedermeyer is overrated, but "Niedermeyer is overrated" is also a meme.

The overrating of Stevens is way more egregious.

Does Stevens have to be top 10 all time to be HHOF worthy?

Maybe, maybe not. I'm more upset by the top 10 rankings than him actually being in the Hall of Fame.

 

[TheDirtyH]

The game was different. Not just how it was played, but how it was watched, how players were evaluated, how they understood one another on the ice. It's not just that Stevens was a great defender, he effectively stopped players from doing just what Karyia and Lindros did: cut cross seam on the blueline towards the left side. Like, no one was willing to make that play against him, ever.

I argue with my Devils fans friends all the time and also think Stevens gets too much love. But as far as HHOF goes, contemporary measures of talent or skill don't say much to me, Stevens was a defining player of his era. A legend in his own right, so he deserves that IMO.

 

[Mac n Gs]

You know who did score a lot during the Dead Puck Era?

Leetch
Chelios
Pronger
Bourque
Lidstrom
Niedermeyer
Blake
Coffey
Murphy
MacInnis
The New Jersey Devils

Niedermeyer is overrated, but "Niedermeyer is overrated" is also a meme.

The overrating of Stevens is way more egregious.


Maybe, maybe not. I'm more upset by the top 10 rankings than him actually being in the Hall of Fame.

I’m gonna ignore how this has transitioned from calling him Tanev to listing obvious HoF dmen as a knock against him offensively, but who the f*** said he was top-10 all time?

 

[Machinehead]

I’m gonna ignore how this has transitioned from calling him Tanev to listing obvious HoF dmen as a knock against him offensively, but who the **** said he was top-10 all time?

Devils fans all the f***ing always, and people who value concussing opponents over skill which is like half of HF.

Ok, maybe I was too hard on him, but you can't disagree that a ton of people overrate Stevens if you've ever read about him on main boards.

He was a very good player, but wasn't one of the very best of his generation. I think he rates comparably to Hampus Lindholm who is an excellent hockey player.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Devils fans all the ****ing always, and people who value concussing opponents over skill which is like half of HF.

Ok, maybe I was too hard on him, but you can't disagree that a ton of people overrate Stevens if you've ever read about him on main boards.

He was a very good player, but wasn't one of the very best of his generation. I think he rates comparably to Hampus Lindholm who is an excellent hockey player.

You’re getting worked up over a bunch of f***ing mouth breathers from Jersey?

 

[Machinehead]

You’re getting worked up over a bunch of ****ing mouth breathers from Jersey?

I'm very defensive about my Leetchie. Neither Stevens nor Niedermeyer could wash his underwear.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I'm very defensive about my Leetchie. Neither Stevens nor Niedermeyer could wash his underwear.

I mean, duh. Leetch IS a top-10 dmen of all time

 

[Machinehead]

I mean, duh. Leetch IS a top-10 dmen of all time

Ok, you get it.

I think you'd be surprised how low people rate Leetch, but you're right, it's not worth getting upset about.

Disclaimer: I know that but getting upset about hockey is sort of what I do.

 

[silverfish]

Do y'all see what I do in that shot location chart?

 

[Bob Richards]

I believe in Bob O'Gara

 

[Machinehead]

From the start of the season through 1/19 (all of McDonagh, Smith, Skjei, Shattenkirk in the lineup) - 46.1% CF, 2.73 xGA/60.

From 2/26 to today (none of them in the lineup except for Skjei) - 42.1% CF, 2.85 xGA/60.

Yes, it's worse, but am I the only one alarmed by how small the regression is?

The latter is a much smaller sample and most likely regresses back to 44 or 45%. The xGA difference is nothing.

This team is marginally better with a top 4 of McDonagh, Shattenkirk, Skjei, and Smith than they are with Skjei and friends.

The system is broken.

 

[JimmyG89]

From the start of the season through 1/19 (all of McDonagh, Smith, Skjei, Shattenkirk in the lineup) - 46.1% CF, 2.73 xGA/60.

From 2/26 to today (none of them in the lineup except for Skjei) - 42.1% CF, 2.85 xGA/60.

Yes, it's worse, but am I the only one alarmed by how small the regression is?

The latter is a much smaller sample and most likely regresses back to 44 or 45%. The xGA difference is nothing.

This team is marginally better with a top 4 of McDonagh, Shattenkirk, Skjei, and Smith than they are with Skjei and friends.

The system is broken.

Hard to ignore the stats, and even the production from both units.

The old saying is you can't replace the players, so you fire the coach. Well, we've replaced the players and the numbers are similar. Time to fire the coach.

 

[Machinehead]

Also, here's a Leetch exercise since I love digging up old shit from pre-analytics hockey, I love Leetch, and I love crapping on +/-

2000-01, Leetch puts up 79 points on a joke of a team during the DPE. Should win the Norris but doesn't because he's -18.

That year, the Rangers gave up 12 shorthanded goals against.

Because the amazing people at HockeyReference have every box score ever, I also know that the Rangers gave up 6 empty net goals that year.

Bear with me, I will make one assumption. I think it's a relatively safe one. we can comb over all of Leetch's box scores but it's still impossible to say exactly which goals he got a minus for. However, I will assume, since he regularly played 2 minute powerplays that year, that he was on the ice for every single one of those.

Leetch was on the ice for 157 against, minus 18, giving us 139. Take off another 49 that he was killing a penalty on, and you get a nice even 90 at 5v5. He was on the ice for 166 Rangers goals, 59 of which on the powerplay, giving us 105, with a margin of error of -7, for the 7 empty netters the Rangers scored.

I'll split the difference (101), and he's somewhere around +11 5v5.



The Rangers scored 250 goals that year. Subtract their 65 powerplay goals, their 12 shorthanded goals, and 7 empty net goals, and they have 166 5v5 goals.

They conceded 290. Subtract 86 powerplay goals, 12 shorthanded goals, and the 6 empty netters. 178.

166 - 101 = 65

178 - 90 = 88

101 + 90 = 192. 101/192 = 52.6 GF% with Leetch on.

65 + 88 = 153. 65/153 = 42.4 GF% Leetch off.

5v5 GF% rel = +10.20

Where's my f***ing Norris?

 

[Machinehead]

I would be a terrible sociology professor if I didn't post the limitations of the study

1)You can see in the math that some goals are unaccounted for. I attribute this to 4v4 goals possibly being lost in the ether because HockeyReference doesn't have that as a specific category. Also, it's possible that empty netters against were concurrent with opposing powerplays, but I doubt that happened more than once.

2)Leetch played literally 28:30 a game that year, so the "off" data is a smaller sample than typical "off" data, but it's still slightly more than half the game.

Still, with those in mind, Brian Leetch is good at hockey.

 

[Machinehead]

One last thing - HockeyReference is f***ing amazing.

There's not much there in terms of real advanced stuff, but if you want minute details on traditional stats, it's an absolute goldmine.

 

[Bob Richards]

One last thing - HockeyReference is ****ing amazing.

There's not much there in terms of real advanced stuff, but if you want minute details on traditional stats, it's an absolute goldmine.

Personally I'm a huge fan of their game logs sheets. Clicking and highlighting ranges of games AND it sums the stats up in a neat, little window? GOAT. Simple but incredibly easy and helpful.