The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

Status
Not open for further replies.

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,176
109,602
NYC
Hot take that I would get lynched for anywhere but this thread: Scott Stevens is a glorified Chris Tanev and doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame.
 

SA16

Sixstring
Aug 25, 2006
13,287
12,577
Long Island
Hot take that I would get lynched for anywhere but this thread: Scott Stevens is a glorified Chris Tanev and doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame.

Don't see how they are even remotely comparable given Tanev has 86 points in his career and Stevens once had 78 points in a single season (obviously higher scoring era but still).
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,176
109,602
NYC
Don't see how they are even remotely comparable given Tanev has 86 points in his career and Stevens once had 78 points in a single season (obviously higher scoring era but still).

Stevens was a 26 point player the entire second half of career (the half in which he got all of his notoriety) and it just gets completely ignored because "he put up 78 points once."

Jonathan Cheechoo scored 56 goals once.
 

SA16

Sixstring
Aug 25, 2006
13,287
12,577
Long Island
Ok so he scored 78 once he also put up 50+ 8 times. Did cheechoo score 50+ once and then have seven other 25+ goal years? Don’t see how this is comparable whatsoever.
 

silverfish

got perma'd
Jun 24, 2008
34,644
4,353
under the bridge
Seems like with a lot of the young guys on the team getting minutes, people are seeing what they want to see instead of what's actually there. Or blaming poor play on AV, which I suppose is fair enough, even if we have rel team metrics to account for things like this.

Some of these young guys, especially on D, really aren't that great right now.

Especially O'Gara, but at least HF is united on how bad he's been.

Not seeing what everyone else is in Pionk and ADA.
 

Uncle Dru

Formerly Kakk Addict
Mar 12, 2012
645
494
Seems like with a lot of the young guys on the team getting minutes, people are seeing what they want to see instead of what's actually there. Or blaming poor play on AV, which I suppose is fair enough, even if we have rel team metrics to account for things like this.

Some of these young guys, especially on D, really aren't that great right now.

Especially O'Gara, but at least HF is united on how bad he's been.

Not seeing what everyone else is in Pionk and ADA.

Not a fan of using rel team metrics in Pionk's case...57% DZS% and facing opponent's top players well beyond League average...at this stage in his development...in this defensive system. Odds are stacked WAYYY against him. Like his poise, skating ability, and ability to move the puck.

Pretty much the exact opposite for ADA in terms of usage and relative metrics, and maybe that's why his relative metrics look pretty good. Raw skill/high-volume shooter/offensive driver but the defensive deficiencies are obviously concerning.

Pains me to say, may be a case where eye test prevails :popcorn:
 

silverfish

got perma'd
Jun 24, 2008
34,644
4,353
under the bridge
Not a fan of using rel team metrics in Pionk's case...57% DZS% and facing opponent's top players well beyond League average...at this stage in his development...in this defensive system. Odds are stacked WAYYY against him. Like his poise, skating ability, and ability to move the puck.

How sure of this are you, and how much does it matter?

EDIT - I'm not saying you're wrong, or that I necessarily disagree, but we don't have a good way to evaluate how much qual comp actually matters yet.... I think.
 
Last edited:

Oscar Lindberg

Registered User
Dec 14, 2015
15,597
14,381
CA
With Pionk, I like some of his game, but other parts are concerning. His metric's aren't great, and the sample is small but I'd like to see him play in another system and get some more confidence in the pros before I make a judgement on that

Some of the things he does well, like play 2-1's, are pretty great

Some of the things he does poorly, like when he gets pressured, he does the Girardi/Staal special of throwing the puck up the boards in hopes of it getting out, and ices the puck, makes me want to drive me head through a wall.

He has the mobility to get himself out of pressure without the useless chuck the puck move, hopefully he learns to use it
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,176
109,602
NYC
Ok so he scored 78 once he also put up 50+ 8 times. Did cheechoo score 50+ once and then have seven other 25+ goal years? Don’t see how this is comparable whatsoever.

He broke 30 points once after 1993-94. Nobody brings it up.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,176
109,602
NYC
Lol that was over a decade into his career. There was also the 1994-95 lockout-shortened season so it's really after 1994-95.

And he spent 8 years being Chris Tanev.

Shouldn't a "top 10 D of all time" like, not do that?

He got all of his notoriety and individual awards as a Devil. Nobody gave a shit about him on the Capitals. And yet we'll use point totals from Washington to defend his deficiencies in New Jersey. I don't think it works that way.
 

aufheben

#Norris4Fox
Jan 31, 2013
53,425
27,114
New Jersey
And he spent 8 years being Chris Tanev.

Shouldn't a "top 10 D of all time" like, not do that?

He got all of his notoriety and individual awards as a Devil. Nobody gave a **** about him on the Capitals. And yet we'll use point totals from Washington to defend his deficiencies in New Jersey. I don't think it works that way.
I don't think anyone else considers this a deficiency.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
141,176
109,602
NYC
He was kind of good at defending.

How good could he possibly be at defending?

Realistically, how much better could he be at defending than Drew Doughty, Hampus Lindholm, Marc Edouard Vlasic, and Duncan Keith who all produce more than Stevens did the second half of his career?

He was a very good player, but not a Hall of Fame player. And he doesn't sniff the top 10 D of all time. He wasn't a top 10 D in the NHL when he was playing.

Leetch
Chelios
Pronger
Bourque
Lidstrom
Niedermeyer
Blake
Coffey
Murphy
MacInnis

He wasn't better than any of those guys.
 

Uncle Dru

Formerly Kakk Addict
Mar 12, 2012
645
494
How sure of this are you, and how much does it matter?

EDIT - I'm not saying you're wrong, or that I necessarily disagree, but we don't have a good way to evaluate how much qual comp actually matters yet.... I think.

None that I'm aware of, just looked at from simplistic standpoint - he's put in a position to fail so it's no surprise his underlying numbers reflect that. I'm not sold either way on him (or ADA), but there are thinks I like about his game.

FWIW, even with the most sophisticated information imaginable, I'm not sure we could effectively evaluate individual Dmen in this team's current state.
 

effen

Registered User
Feb 3, 2018
9,175
8,365
Hell, when the Devils won the Cup in 2003 he was the third best D on his own team.

He was 38. lol

how good was he at defending? uhh, really, really good. generationally good. Better than Chelios. Rod Langway won 2 Norris Trophies in the middle of the highest scoring era of all time scoring 32 and 33 points. Ron Greschner was better than him, amirite

Putting cement shoed Larry Murphy above him is a good one.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->