The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

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Ghost of jas

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Feb 27, 2002
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Exactly. I’m cool with making hockey trades, but how many people (that are realistically available) are legitimate upgrades on Kreider? I’m sure we’re going to see some variaion of Puljujarvi and a pick ad nauseum


All you see from his detractors is "he's overrated" or "he's inconsistent". But, I don't think any other Ranger has as profound in impact on his linemates as Kreider. And, as is consistently pointed out, he's is an elite possesion player. If management wants Chytil or whomever they anoint as the #1 center to be successful, having Kreider on his line oes a long to make that happen.

Unfortunately, the track record here of late is that he's going to be dealt.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
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Oh you mean after they fired Bobby Valentine who was completely washed by that point (After literally running the bus over Tito which was a ****ing travesty and also completely typical Boston)? Or are you perhaps talking about when they hired Dave Dombrowski in 2015? I honestly don't understand why you brought up a team that 1. Didn't fire their analytically driven GM the year before the won the WS, and 2. Remains one of the most analytically driven teams in sports, let alone baseball even after hiring DD.

If you're talking about not firing AV after 2016 it's not analogous at all. Baseball is a completely different sport and head coaches/managers play very different roles.

They fired Theo Epstein in 2011 and hired Dombrowski in 2015. In between, they had Ben Cherrington. And I remember a lot of people crapping on Theo when he left and then a team he pretty much built won in 2013. Cherrington got all the credit.

Then on Feb 24th, 2016 the team announced even less reliance on analytics

Red Sox owner says team will rely less on analytics after last place finishes

That year, Epstein won another World Series with the Cubs.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
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Sather was still running the team in 2014 and 2015. Sather is the one who continues to give gifts to his former team in Edmonton, hence the Talbot deal. Sather's also the one who left the team without #1 for four years. If you're indiciting Gorton for being a part of the management team, that's a different story. But, the final decision was Sather's. I don't see as much of problem with the 2016 off-season. Gorton pushed things in a more analytics-driven direction by signing both Clendening and Pirri. (It's the coach who didn't use them properly.) And, moving Brassard for Zibanejad remains a win in my book. And, in retrospect the trade for Eric Staal and it's failure falls at the feet of the coach, once again. Gorton's biggest indictment remains keeping this coach. The re-signing of Girardi and Staal took place under the direction of Sather. (Again, he had final say.) It was those two moves that prevented the re-signing of Stralman and Yandle.

I know people who work for the Rangers and have very close proximity to the logistics of our front office.

Sather hasn't made a significant decision since the MSL trade. It was done the way it was done specifically to take the heat off of everything Gorton does and everyone bought it.

So fair enough on Girardi and Staal, but 2015 is 100% Gorton. You can blame the rest on the coach, but Gorton has had the final say on the coach's employment for four years.

He hasn't been terrible but he gets zero criticism because of the Sather Bogeyman.
 

effen

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Feb 3, 2018
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15-16 is a perfectly fine year for Gorton.
Team can't afford Hagelin or Talbot. Hags trade is ~okay for a guy they couldn't even qualify without messing up the roster, Talbot trade is 90c on the dollar which is good enough. Gets Raanta literally for free and pays him $1M for the next two years. Cuts bait very quickly on the Etem flyer for the Jensen flyer. Staal trade is fine and completely standard for a team going for it, right or wrong.

Don't think they had any particularly egregious UFA signing unless I'm very mistaken.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
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The Talbot trade wasn't 90¢ on the dollar. It was telling the Oilers "here have a dollar."

I liked the Staal trade. But he should have been signed. If the coach won't play him, then fire the dumb f***.

We're still wondering whether AV is coaching this team next year. That's a massive, massive indictment on Gorton.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
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I wish I had a time machine so I could see how happy everyone is in three years with Chytil, Andersson, Hank's corpse, and 17 traffic cones.

We'll have Neal Pionk so they'll probably all be thrilled.
 

Oscar Lindberg

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The Talbot trade wasn't 90¢ on the dollar. It was telling the Oilers "here have a dollar."

I liked the Staal trade. But he should have been signed. If the coach won't play him, then fire the dumb ****.

We're still wondering whether AV is coaching this team next year. That's a massive, massive indictment on Gorton.
Never forget


 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
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Not the first time he did it, either. Poile had two 2nds on the table for Nedved back in 2004. Sather instead swapped Nedved and Markanen for a 2nd and Valiquette. No deals with Edmonton, okay Gorts?

That's where everyone keeps sending Kreider, so sounds like a great idea to me.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
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William Karlsson

2015-16 - 0.57 g/60, 9.0 sh%
2016-17 - 0.33 g/60, 5.1 sh%
2017-18 - 1.61 g/60, 23.76 sh%

Expires July 1st. What do you do?
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
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I would be terrified if I was looking at those numbers for one of our guys.

I usually hate bridge deals, but I think you have to bridge it.

If he regresses severely, he's off the books in two years and your hands are clean.

If he doesn't it'll be more expensive, but I'd rather give 7-8 to a known commodity than give a guy 5-6 and have him crash and burn.
 

Harbour Dog

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Jul 16, 2015
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I usually hate bridge deals, but I think you have to bridge it.

If he regresses severely, he's off the books in two years and your hands are clean.

If he doesn't it'll be more expensive, but I'd rather give 7-8 to a known commodity than give a guy 5-6 and have him crash and burn.

Only thing that makes sense to do, I agree.

Not many GMs that I would trust blindly to do the right thing in that spot though.
 

YoSoyLalo

me reading HF
Oct 8, 2010
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The Talbot trade wasn't 90¢ on the dollar. It was telling the Oilers "here have a dollar."

I liked the Staal trade. But he should have been signed. If the coach won't play him, then fire the dumb ****.

We're still wondering whether AV is coaching this team next year. That's a massive, massive indictment on Gorton.
So the first rounds picks we made last year aren't traffic cones, but the firsts we have this year are? Who's to say we don't add more Chytils and Anderssons to the pipeline?
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
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So the first rounds picks we made last year aren't traffic cones, but the firsts we have this year are? Who's to say we don't add more Chytils and Anderssons to the pipeline?

Right, but who's to say we do?

I just think on HF in general there's way too much assumption as far as prospects and picks and they're valued over known commodities.

That post was re: trading Kreider.
 

Ghost of jas

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So the first rounds picks we made last year aren't traffic cones, but the firsts we have this year are? Who's to say we don't add more Chytils and Anderssons to the pipeline?


Last year's first round gives me a lot of hope for what we see this year.
 
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YoSoyLalo

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Right, but who's to say we do?

I just think on HF in general there's way too much assumption as far as prospects and picks and they're valued over known commodities.

That post was re: trading Kreider.

Personally, I'm split on Kreider. He's a beast, and I love the guy, but we only have two more years of control, and he is going to CASH IN in two years. I understand his raw production isn't representative of his total value, but are we really going to give a guy 7M per for 30/30 production in his best season(s)?
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
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Personally, I'm split on Kreider. He's a beast, and I love the guy, but we only have two more years of control, and he is going to CASH IN in two years. I understand his raw production isn't representative of his total value, but are we really going to give a guy 7M per for 30/30 production in his best season(s)?

Depends on the outlook of the team. If we're trending up, I would overpay to have Kreider be a part of that.

I don't see him asking for 7M FWIW.
 

YoSoyLalo

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Last year's first round gives me a lot of hope for what we see this year.
Me too. With the way those guys have flourished, Chytil particularly, I'm giddy to see who Gorton steals between 25-30 this year.

Not to mention the reports of prospects we've been after. We've heard names like Petersson, Makar, and Keller. All of these guys look like top 10 prospects, now. IMO, the current scouting department clearly has a sharp eye for talent.
 
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