Prospect Info: The 2018 Draft Thread

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Raab

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Oct 6, 2007
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Dobson playing again at 430 on TVA Sports 2 for anyone interested. The channel is on Shaw Direct Satellite, but the game will be broadcast in french. I missed last nights game due to work. So hoping the Titan have another good showing.
 

Raab

Registered User
Oct 6, 2007
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Well not a good game from Dobson tonight. Will see how the rest of the series goes but he might be dropping down the list if he keeps this up.
 
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Raab

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Oct 6, 2007
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Only you could watch a single game and drop a guy out of your top 3 because of it.

I never dropped him. Will see how he looks the rest of the series, but didnt have a very good game. From my understanding he was excellent in game 3.
 

Ruok

Feeling Hyman.
Jun 21, 2011
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Anyone think there is a chance a player like Jake Wise or Martin Kaut is there with our second round pick? This could be a good year to add some solid players later in the draft.
 

PKSpecialist

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Feb 6, 2010
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Anyone think there is a chance a player like Jake Wise or Martin Kaut is there with our second round pick? This could be a good year to add some solid players later in the draft.
I very much doubt that Kaut is there. Very good possibility that Wise is available.
 

Took a pill in Sbisa

2showToffoliIwascool
Apr 23, 2004
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I'm just going to post this again for a good reminder. The odds are that the player we pick (if we keep the pick) at #10 is likely not going to be a top 4 blueliner or a top 6 forward. The odds say we will get a bottom pairing dman or 4th line forward or worse:

DRAFT PICK VALUE CHART, 1990-2013

PICKAVG. RATING% PLAY 100 GPTOP 6 F, TOP 4 D, 1 G4TH LINE OR WORSE
17.75100.0%79.2%8.3%
27.79100.0%87.5%0.0%
37.06100.0%79.2%8.3%
46.2183.3%54.2%25.0%
56.75100.0%62.5%8.3%
65.6383.3%58.3%41.7%
75.7791.7%41.7%33.3%
84.8870.8%29.2%45.8%
95.4087.5%33.3%50.0%
104.5278.3%13.0%65.2%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

Jonathan Willis was on Lowedown last week and said it was about a 50% chance the #10 pick turns into a top-9 forward or top-4 D.
I wonder where he gets his stats from or if the 13% jumps all the way up to 50 from 3rd liners alone.
 

suddeninterest

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Aug 19, 2014
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You have to look at those draft pick values in context of the individual draft itself and players though. According to that chart it’s better to have the 2nd pick in the draft than the 1st, the 5th pick than the 4th, the 7th than the 6th and the 9th than the 8th. Logic tells you that isn’t true.

You don’t actually have a 20.3% less chance of getting a top 6 forward or top 4 d drafting at 10 compared to 9. Its just coincidence that the players often drafted in the 10th spot have busted. If a team took any player from picks 11-211 in the 10 spot that turned into a top 6/ top 4 it would increase the ratio of those players in that spot.
 

EDMOILERS9729

Registered User
Dec 25, 2017
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Am I the only one that doesn’t want Ty Smith?
I dont want him either. Hes a lhd for starters and hasn't impressed me anytime Ive watched him. I would much rather take Kotkaniemi at 10 over Smith if none of the other D drop to us. Kotkaniemi seems like a perfect fit on our team, can play all 3 positions (rw,lw,c) and is a pretty decently sized guy with a great release.
 

PKSpecialist

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Feb 6, 2010
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Am I the only one that doesn’t want Ty Smith?

I don't think you are the only one, but I don't understand why you wouldn't want him. Not only is he a fantastic player to watch play hockey, but there are some advanced stats guys around here that can show you just how good his underlying numbers are in terms of scoring chances , defensive metrics, and zone entries both offensively and defensively.

Size, the top prospects game and international play are the only knocks against him. He was absolutely fantastic for the Chiefs this year. Over a PPG, plus 44. He doubled his scoring from the previous season, and his +/- was 50 points better. This kid is the real deal. He will be a player in the league. The upside is questionable, but I don't see a world where this guy doesn't become a top 4 defenseman in the NHL, and could become a top pairing guy. If Boqvist/Hughes/Dobson don't fall I take this guy at 10 all day, and I actually have him ahead of Bouchard in my rankings.
 

Joey Moss

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Aug 29, 2008
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I don't see any way we don't get one of Bouchard, Hughes, or Dobson. I'd be surprised if we passed on them if they're available at least.

A guy like Kotkaniemi or Farabee is going to go top 9, especially after U18's. If they don't I'd be happy with either of these guys as well.
 

BarDownBobo

Registered User
Oct 19, 2012
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City of Champions
Acadie-Bathurst won the QMJHL title today so Dobson will be playing in the Memorial Cup. I've got a feeling playing on the big stage will get him enough exposure that he'll be picked before the Oil. I hope I'm wrong though as he'd be such a great addition to the prospect pool.

I do agree that one of him, Hughes, Bouchard or Boqvist will be available when the Oil pick though. The way things are going I'm thinking it'll be Boqvist, which I'd also be ecstatic about.
 

ConnorMcMullet

#12 Colby Cave
Jun 10, 2017
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I see two scenarios for the draft:

1: In the top 9, all of the top D (Dahlin, Boqvist, Bouchard, Hughes, Dobson) are picked, and we are left with either Kotkaniemi or Smith. I'm hoping for Kotkaniemi.

2: One team desperate for a center falls in love with Jesperi Kotkaniemi and takes him with the Oilers pick. One of Dobson, Bouchard, Hughes, or Boqvist falls to our pick and I will be a happy man.



I'm really hoping for the second scenario, but Kotkaniemi would still be a decent consolation prize.
 
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McKappa

philip bruhberg
Oct 16, 2011
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I see two scenarios for the draft:

1: In the top 9, all of the top D (Dahlin, Boqvist, Bouchard, Hughes, Dobson) are picked, and we are left with either Kotkaniemi or Smith. I'm hoping for Kotkaniemi.

2: One team desperate for a center falls in love with Jesperi Kotkaniemi and takes him with the Oilers pick. One of Dobson, Bouchard, Hughes, or Boqvist falls to our pick and I will be a happy man.



I'm really hoping for the second scenario, but Kotkaniemi would still be a decent consolation prize.
3. Chiarelli trades the 10th pick to the Islanders for mascot Sparky the Dragon, who he believes is a significant upgrade over Hunter the Canadian lynx

Please make the pick on someone like Kotkaniemi, and don't use it on Barret Hayton, that's all I'm asking for
 

ConnorMcMullet

#12 Colby Cave
Jun 10, 2017
10,290
18,008
3. Chiarelli trades the 10th pick to the Islanders for mascot Sparky the Dragon, who he believes is a significant upgrade over Hunter the Canadian lynx

Please make the pick on someone like Kotkaniemi, and don't use it on Barret Hayton, that's all I'm asking for
I do like Barret Hayton, but he doesn't have nearly enough offensive upside to be considered a top 10 pick.
 
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