Team Salary Commitments 8/8 Some Teams in Trouble Already?

[Matt Gunning]

I see a lot of people citing the salary totals listed on www.tsn.ca but that can be a little deceptive because of expensive RFA who need to be signed and the number of empty roster spots. For example Phoenix has a nearly full roster with almost no significant RFA so you have a good sense of their total salary commitments for the coming season. Here's what I did:

1) Use the average value of existing contacts and new free agent signings (TSN lists the cost for the current year, but it is the average cost that matters for the salary cap).

2) I inserted minimum qualifying offers for each team's RFA. For some players this is just the 450,000 minimum and for others (Joe Thornton) it is much more.

3) I inserted the minimum salary for any empty roster spots. I assume that each team will carry 23 players on their roster.

If you add this stuff it gives you an idea of the minimum salary that each team must pay out. The number will certainly be higher for teams like Atlanta which must sign Kovalchuk and Heatley RFA, but for other teams it may not change that much. Here are the 30 teams ranked by salary commitments.

Dollars/Team/major RFA to be signed yet.
$41.6 New Jersey: Elias, Gomez, V.Kozlov, Fresien
$40.2 Anaheim: Chistov, LeClerc
$39.1 Colorado: Aebischer
$37.5 Philadelphia: Gagne, K. Johnsson, Esche
$36.7 Dallas: Arnott, Morrow
$35.1 Ottawa: Hossa, Spezza, Havlat
$34.9 Boston: Thornton, Samsonov, Raycroft
$34.3 Chicago: Thibault, Bell, Arnason
$34.3 Vancouver: Sedins, Ohlund
$34.1 Toronto: Berg, Antropov
$34.1 NY Islanders: DiPietro, Parrish, Kvasha
$33.5 Detroit: Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall
$33.2 Montreal: Koivu, Theodore, Bulis
$32.8 NY Rangersoti Rachunek
$32.6 Calgary: Kiprosoff, Reinprecht
$31.4 St. Louis: Brewer
$31.3 Los Angeles: CAmmalleri, Frolov
$29.6 Edmonton: Smyth, Torres
$29.2 Tampa Bay: St. Louis, Lecavalier, Boyle
$28.7 Nashville: Legwand, Hartnell, Hamhuis
$28.4 Atlanta: Kovalchuk, Heatley
$28.4 Pittsbugh: Lemieux, Morozov, Tarnstrom
$26.6 Buffalo: Jillson, Afinogenov, Briere, Hecht
$26.3 Columbus
$25.1 Carolina: Brendl, Vasicek
$24.6 Washington: Zubrus, Halpern
$24.1 Minnesota: Bouchard, Zyzuin
$24.0 Phoenix
$24.0 San Jose: Marleau, Sturm
$21.9 Florida: Luongo, Jokinen, Hagman, Bouwmeester

Now in the first two years teams are allowed to exeed the cap by 10% under certain conditions, so you can hit $43 million and still be in compliance. But the top two teams New Jersey and Anaheim appear to have a problem on their hands right now.

new Jersey surprised me, but basically all six of their top scoring forwards are RFA. Elias, Gomez, Kozlov, Langenbrunner, Friesen, C. White. They are paying a lot to Brodeur (5.2) a super checker Madden (3.5) and a lot to their defense (Rafalski 5.2, Malakov 3.6 Matvichuk 1.4, McGillis 2.2) I have the other two RFA defensemen Hale and Martin making the minimum and they get more than that. It seems clear to me at least that New Jersey must move a forward or two to get some cap relief.

Anaheim is paying a huge amount ($21 million)to Fedorov (6.1) Giguere (4.0) S. Niedermayer (6.75) and Sykora (3.1). That is just over half of cap maximum. The other 19 players on the roster consume the other $19 million.

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[friction]

Just missed Edmonton.

 

[kdb209]

Now in the first two years teams are allowed to exeed the cap by 10% under certain conditions, so you can hit $43 million and still be in compliance.

Source? What are "certain conditions"?

This is pretty much contradicted by the CBA FAQ.

 

[Cloned]

Edmonton is probably pretty safe.

Smyth should sign between 3-4M. Both Torres and Hemsky should sign slightly below, at, or slightly above the 1M mark. That effectively eliminates most of the bigger names, leaving guys like Reasoner to sign for less than a million.

 

[Captain Ron]

Source? What are "certain conditions"?

This is pretty much contradicted by the CBA FAQ.

I have read somewhere that supposedly teams are allowed to be over the cap by 10% during the offseason. I am not sure if this is true though. When the Flyers signed Forsberg it was reported they had only 48 hours to bring their payroll back beneath the cap. Hence the Roenick trade. I think if they were allowed to be above the cap until October 5th they would not have rushed into a deal with LA.

 

[HughJass*]

Not 100% sure, but I think Brendl signed a contract with Lowell. The numbers for us are a bit accurate but the list of RFAs we don't have signed are greater. For one, I don't think Kevyn Adams signed his contract yet; Cullen's contract is already factored in the total though. Rutherford did say the payroll (factored in with all the RFA's) should be around $25.5 M right now, so there is still room to sign one more UFA on defense (which is more than likely Glen Wesley).

 

[kdb209]

I have read somewhere that supposedly teams are allowed to be over the cap by 10% during the offseason. I am not sure if this is true though. When the Flyers signed Forsberg it was reported they had only 48 hours to bring their payroll back beneath the cap. Hence the Roenick trade. I think if they were allowed to be above the cap until October 5th they would not have rushed into a deal with LA.

Possible, maybe in the offseason, but certainly not during the season. Even with Forsberg, the Flyers were not over the cap - many of their RFAs (Gagne, Johnson, Esche, etc) weren't signed yet so they did not count against the cap. Keeping JR would have made it impossible to sign all their RFAs, so JR had to be moved, but because of the immediate cap or with any immediate deadline.

Unfortunately there has been so many I-read-somewhere's, I-heard-that's, I-think's about the CBA (many of them blatantly wrong yet still circulating) that I've become skeptical of any claims without a reasonable source - legitimate news story or analysis (although many media folks seem to actually know less than many of the folks here) or reported comments from GMs or Agents (ie people who have actually seen the mythical 600 page doc).

 

[Matt Gunning]

Teams are not allowed to have normal salaries that exceed the $39 million threshold. But you can exceed the cap in terms of bonuses that are paid out. For example, there a number of players with old entry level contracts bonus clauses that could be quite lucrative. I recall hearing that Kovalchuk made $3 in bonus money on top of his rookie salary. Teams are not allowed to carry any salary in excess of the cap number but you could go over by 10% if individual players have bonuses that kick in.

BUT--there is a penalty. For each dollar you go over the cap this season the cap for your team is reduced by two dollars the following season. For example, if you did end up spending $42 million ($3 over the cap) you could only have salaries that totaled $33 ($39-$6) the following year. You can only exceed the cap by 10% the first two years of the CBA. After that most of the contracts with big bonus clauses will be off the books thus this problem should be less of an issue.

I know that this is not listed in the CBA facts but it came from a source that I trust.

 

[Matt Gunning]

Not 100% sure, but I think Brendl signed a contract with Lowell. The numbers for us are a bit accurate but the list of RFAs we don't have signed are greater. For one, I don't think Kevyn Adams signed his contract yet; Cullen's contract is already factored in the total though. Rutherford did say the payroll (factored in with all the RFA's) should be around $25.5 M right now, so there is still room to sign one more UFA on defense (which is more than likely Glen Wesley).

Any idea how much Cullen signed for? It's not listed on sportsnet and I need to nail that one down for the spreadsheet.

 

[triggrman]

Nashville still has Legwand, Hartnell, Hamhuis, Sullivan, Erat and Hall to sign.

 

[Pepper]

Ducks will be at 40.2M with 23 players if remaining players accept their QOs (very likely).

Burke has said that he will have a 22-player roster but he also wants some cap space so there will be moves.

 

[NJDevils#4]

Dollars/Team/major RFA to be signed yet.
$41.6 New Jersey: Elias, Gomez, V.Kozlov, Fresien


Now in the first two years teams are allowed to exeed the cap by 10% under certain conditions, so you can hit $43 million and still be in compliance. But the top two teams New Jersey and Anaheim appear to have a problem on their hands right now.

new Jersey surprised me, but basically all six of their top scoring forwards are RFA. Elias, Gomez, Kozlov, Langenbrunner, Friesen, C. White.

We're coming up with different numbers over on the NJ boards. Where did u get these figures?

Also for good measure...C. White is a defenseman, not one of our top 6 scoring forwards. Also, Kozlov was not a top 6 scorer for us.

 

[HBK27]

new Jersey surprised me, but basically all six of their top scoring forwards are RFA. Elias, Gomez, Kozlov, Langenbrunner, Friesen, C. White. They are paying a lot to Brodeur (5.2) a super checker Madden (3.5) and a lot to their defense (Rafalski 5.2, Malakov 3.6 Matvichuk 1.4, McGillis 2.2) I have the other two RFA defensemen Hale and Martin making the minimum and they get more than that. It seems clear to me at least that New Jersey must move a forward or two to get some cap relief.

Devils will surely trade away some veteran players, especially since rookies like Parise and Suglobov that figure to challenge for spots this year aren't included in this group of 23. I think Lou qualified nearly all his RFA's (except for Hrdina) figuring it was better to at least get something in return for them rather than letting them go for nothing. Seeing how outragous a lot of the UFA contracts have been this offseason, a lot of these players are looking like much better values.

Also, I wonder how Elias' contract will be counted against the cap. The Devils qualified him at $4.18M, but he's not really expected to be back until December, so I'm guessing maybe $1-$2M of his salary may not count against the cap.

 

[tmg]

We're coming up with different numbers over on the NJ boards. Where did u get these figures?

Also for good measure...C. White is a defenseman, not one of our top 6 scoring forwards. Also, Kozlov was not a top 6 scorer for us.

It's the Madden numbers that are off. He had a frontloaded contract before the lockout, and by most reports, the means of calculating the cap number is to average the salary of the *remaining* years on the contract. The numbers circulating seem to be averaging *all five* years of the contract. I believe we're at $40,419,431 for 22 players if all QA's are signed.

TSN lists Madden as $3,861,561 but the 'new math' has him at $2.926 mil of cap dollars in 05-06.

IMHO, the Devils' only real danger of RFA raises are Gionta and Martin. The four guys listed above will likely sign at or very near their qualifying offers.

But I agree that the Devils are in a pinch. They likely need to make at least one salary-shedding trade. I think one millionaire has to be outbound - White, Matvichuk, Friesen, Langenbrunner, Kozlov, or Brylin.

Good call on Elias, though - his IR time might just free up enough money to avoid an otherwise-necessary talent dump.

 

[ClosetOilersFan]

Just as thought, Edmonton will have room to sign one more decent player Thanks for this, must've taken a while to compute.

Appears that you're assuming a lot, but I'd imagine that it can't be too far off.

 

[Matt Gunning]

It's the Madden numbers that are off. He had a frontloaded contract before the lockout, and by most reports, the means of calculating the cap number is to average the salary of the *remaining* years on the contract. The numbers circulating seem to be averaging *all five* years of the contract. I believe we're at $40,419,431 for 22 players if all QA's are signed.

TSN lists Madden as $3,861,561 but the 'new math' has him at $2.926 mil of cap dollars in 05-06.

IMHO, the Devils' only real danger of RFA raises are Gionta and Martin. The four guys listed above will likely sign at or very near their qualifying offers.

Thanks for the help on Madden I corrected that also you're right about me calling White a forward was dumb. I'm posting the numbers I have for NJ below. Let me know if you see anything else wrong. (*) denotes qualifying offer assumption.

Elias 4.18*
Gomez 2.28*
V. Kozlov 1.725*
Langenbrunner 1.52*
Friesen 2.28*
Parise .5 (anybody know for sure what his base salary is?)
Brylin 1.52
Madden 2.926
Pandolfo .826
Oliwa .836
Gionta .570*
Rasmussen .522
Marshall .760
Langdon .450
Rafalski 4.2
Malakov 3.6
McGillis 2.2
Matvichuk 1.368
C. White 1.71*
Martin .450*
Hale .450*
Brodeur 5.391
backup goalie spot .450

 

[projexns]

Thanks for the help on Madden I corrected that also you're right about me calling White a forward was dumb. I'm posting the numbers I have for NJ below. Let me know if you see anything else wrong. (*) denotes qualifying offer assumption.

Elias 4.18*
Gomez 2.28*
V. Kozlov 1.725*
Langenbrunner 1.52*
Friesen 2.28*
Parise .5 (anybody know for sure what his base salary is?)
Brylin 1.52
Madden 2.926
Pandolfo .826
Oliwa .836
Gionta .570*
Rasmussen .522
Marshall .760
Langdon .450
Rafalski 4.2
Malakov 3.6
McGillis 2.2
Matvichuk 1.368
C. White 1.71*
Martin .450*
Hale .450*
Brodeur 5.391
backup goalie spot .450

............for a total of $40,714,000........

Do you have the Anaheim breakdown? They look to me like they'll have to dump
Fedorov if they want to avoid dumping multiple contracts and replacing them with
league-minimum guys.