WC: Team Latvia

[Namejs]

You totally glossed over my example of Denmark. They have roughly the same numbers we do yet they have like what 6-7? decent NHLers with one superstar in Ehlers and number 1 goalie in Andersen. Now thats efficiency. As opposed to us crancking out nobodies like Razgals and Skvorcovs- these guys should be nowhere near our NT and yet here we are.

As for demographics- those things can change as the average income grows we will probably see increased immigration from poorer countries like Ukraine and Moldova(which is already happening and will only increase) aswell as some of our compatriots living abroad will probably return aswell, so im personally not that worried.

In order to measure something, you need a larger sample size. The share of kids becoming career NHL guys is so tiny, you can't measure the efficiency of an entire system based on whether it has produced 1, 2 or 5 NHL-tier players during the last 5 or 10 years. If you're implying that Denmark is consistently producing more talent, that's simply not true. If they would be producing more talent, we would have to see it all across the board and it would have to show in the number of NHL draftees, number of major junior players, number of pro players and so forth. Those numbers do not reflect that. You also have to account for guys like Ehlers, who played hockey in Switzerland since he was a small kid, and Denmark had virtually no role in his development.

Denmark has about a 1/4 more kids playing hockey. Denmark also possesses a massive comparative advantage due to geographic proximity to Sweden. They're also very close culturally. They can communicate with each other in Danish or Swedish. If I was a Dane living in Copenhagen, my kid would be playing in Malmo - a city in a country with the most efficient hockey system on the planet. It's a 48 minute drive away. Actually, if you'd look up Danish prospects, that's what a lot of them do. Replicating that is impossible whoever leads the LHF.

And with all those advantages, there is no indication they're more efficient than us, especially if we're talking about depth.

It's highly likely the current surge of players from Denmark in the NHL is a statistical outlier and a fluke.

There are also several other factors in play, which are not related to efficiency at all. The NHL is not the end-all and be-all for every hockey player. There are plenty of examples of NHL-tier players making a decision to return home in order to play a leading role instead of being a 3rd liner on a bottom feeder team. Choosing a different indicator, such as the number of NHL draftees or the number of pro players, would make more sense.

Another major factor in the case of Latvia is the KHL. The Kremlin has a team based in Riga. It uses its oil money to artificially prop up a Latvian team in the league for political reasons. This has led to a completely unnatural situation and crippled the market. Mediocre players and young decent prospects alike all have guaranteed contracts and ridiculous wages. I'm not sure if you're old enough to remember how things were before the KHL, but as of now the incentive for young players to try to reach the NHL is very limited. Why would they do that, if they have a lucrative contract already? Why would they put their livelihoods at risk? Why would they grind their way through the AHL, if they're receiving juicy offers from Dinamo Riga? And if they snub their Kremlin bosses, they're not going to make it in the KHL. And they're paying less in Czech Extraliga.

As for demographics, it doesn't have a lot to do with income. It's a postmodernist trend all across the Western world, it's just that it's even worse in Latvia due to emigration. And if you're not worried about it, you have to put your thinking cap on. If the pool of available kids decreases by 30%, the number of pro players will decrease accordingly. Ukrainians and Romanians couldn't care less about hockey.

 

[BalticWarrior]

In order to measure something, you need a larger sample size. The share of kids becoming career NHL guys is so tiny, you can't measure the efficiency of an entire system based on whether it has produced 1, 2 or 5 NHL-tier players during the last 5 or 10 years. If you're implying that Denmark is consistently producing more talent, that's simply not true. If they would be producing more talent, we would have to see it all across the board and it would have to show in the number of NHL draftees, number of major junior players, number of pro players and so forth. Those numbers do not reflect that. You also have to account for guys like Ehlers, who played hockey in Switzerland since he was a small kid, and Denmark had virtually no role in his development.

Denmark has about a 1/4 more kids playing hockey. Denmark also possesses a massive comparative advantage due to geographic proximity to Sweden. They're also very close culturally. They can communicate with each other in Danish or Swedish. If I was a Dane living in Copenhagen, my kid would be playing in Malmo - a city in a country with the most efficient hockey system on the planet. It's a 48 minute drive away. Actually, if you'd look up Danish prospects, that's what a lot of them do. Replicating that is impossible whoever leads the LHF.

And with all those advantages, there is no indication they're more efficient than us, especially if we're talking about depth.

It's highly likely the current surge of players from Denmark in the NHL is a statistical outlier and a fluke.

There are also several other factors in play, which are not related to efficiency at all. The NHL is not the end-all and be-all for every hockey player. There are plenty of examples of NHL-tier players making a decision to return home in order to play a leading role instead of being a 3rd liner on a bottom feeder team. Choosing a different indicator, such as the number of NHL draftees or the number of pro players, would make more sense.

Another major factor in the case of Latvia is the KHL. The Kremlin has a team based in Riga. It uses its oil money to artificially prop up a Latvian team in the league for political reasons. This has led to a completely unnatural situation and crippled the market. Mediocre players and young decent prospects alike all have guaranteed contracts and ridiculous wages. I'm not sure if you're old enough to remember how things were before the KHL, but as of now the incentive for young players to try to reach the NHL is very limited. Why would they do that, if they have a lucrative contract already? Why would they put their livelihoods at risk? Why would they grind their way through the AHL, if they're receiving juicy offers from Dinamo Riga? And if they snub their Kremlin bosses, they're not going to make it in the KHL. And they're paying less in Czech Extraliga.

As for demographics, it doesn't have a lot to do with income. It's a postmodernist trend all across the Western world, it's just that it's even worse in Latvia due to emigration. And if you're not worried about it, you have to put your thinking cap on. If the pool of available kids decreases by 30%, the number of pro players will decrease accordingly. Ukrainians and Romanians couldn't care less about hockey.

You totally missed my point about demographics. If we have more Ukrainian immigrants we can assimilate them and their children therefore leading to more hockey players. Its just cultural "apropriation" in a way. So in that context no im not worried because i dont think there will be a decrease.

 

[BalticWarrior]

As for KHL influencing players, i dont buy that. Where are these wealth of guys that could realistically try out for an NHL spot in Dinamos system? I guess Indrašis used to be among those but i cant think of anyone else really. Edgars Kulda for example came over only after he tried the WHL path and it failed to open op a path to NHL, same goes for guys like Jevapolvs who also never really stood a chance of making the big league

 

[kabidjan18]

NHL players isn't of course an end-all-be-all measurement because the sample size is too small. However, it's grasping for too much to create this narrative of athletes who could play in the NHL but elect to play at home instead. There's no empirical basis for this being true for players of the nations in question.

 

[Namejs]

You totally missed my point about demographics. If we have more Ukrainian immigrants we can assimilate them and their children therefore leading to more hockey players. Its just cultural "apropriation" in a way. So in that context no im not worried because i dont think there will be a decrease.

You are making things up. What Ukrainian immigrants? The number of kids in Latvia has dropped. Coaches in Latvia don't have material to work with. It's going to leave a mark. It's simple as that. It doesn't matter if it worries you or not.

 

[Namejs]

As for KHL influencing players, i dont buy that. Where are these wealth of guys that could realistically try out for an NHL spot in Dinamos system? I guess Indrašis used to be among those but i cant think of anyone else really. Edgars Kulda for example came over only after he tried the WHL path and it failed to open op a path to NHL, same goes for guys like Jevapolvs who also never really stood a chance of making the big league

It applies to every single MHL graduate. They never even tried, because they've always been in the orbit of the Russian hockey system. If it wasn't for Russian oil money, that wouldn't be the case.

If it wasn't for the KHL, Indrasis would be playing in North America years ago. If it wasn't for the KHL, Karsums, Bartulis, etc., would have way less incentive to move back to Europe. It directly affects the number of players we have in North America. They are no longer willing to receive peanuts in the AHL.

 

[Namejs]

NHL players isn't of course an end-all-be-all measurement because the sample size is too small. However, it's grasping for too much to create this narrative of athletes who could play in the NHL but elect to play at home instead. There's no empirical basis for this being true for players of the nations in question.

Several Latvian players decided to leave North America since they didn't want to be AHL/NHL guys. Once they have kids and a family, they try to earn as much as possible. Obviously, the disparity between the wages in AHL and KHL is huge.

That point was made in general regarding the use of 'number of NHL players' as a pretty crappy indicator. (If we're talking about tiny hockey nations, that is).

 

[Kesid]

As for KHL influencing players, i dont buy that. Where are these wealth of guys that could realistically try out for an NHL spot in Dinamos system? I guess Indrašis used to be among those but i cant think of anyone else really. Edgars Kulda for example came over only after he tried the WHL path and it failed to open op a path to NHL, same goes for guys like Jevapolvs who also never really stood a chance of making the big league

I have a different question. Why dont your work with guys who came back from NHL and are still young and talented? As you named two of them - Kulda, Jevpalovs. You dont have to develop them for NHL (but that would be best case scenario), but you should work with them to make them future leaders for the national team.

 

[Namejs]

I have a different question. Why dont your work with guys who came back from NHL and are still young and talented? As you named two of them - Kulda, Jevpalovs. You dont have to develop them for NHL (but that would be best case scenario), but you should work with them to make them future leaders for the national team.

Kulda just isn't talented enough for the NHL. He doesn't have the size either. I don't know why he was brought up. I'm not sure he would make the Latvian B team right now.

As for developing players for the NHL, why on Earth would they be interested in that? Dinamo Riga want to keep all of their players for themselves. They are being immensely overpaid and have no motivation to get out of their comfort zone.

 

[kabidjan18]

Several Latvian players decided to leave North America since they didn't want to be AHL/NHL guys. Once they have kids and a family, they try to earn as much as possible. Obviously, the disparity between the wages in AHL and KHL is huge.

Precisely...so those are AHL guys. They're just as much NHL guys as Nerijus Alisauskas is a "KHL tier" player.

That point was made in general regarding the use of 'number of NHL players' as a pretty crappy indicator. (If we're talking about tiny hockey nations, that is).

I agreed with this.

I think the argument from efficiency, as previously stated, is poor. Slovenia is the most efficient nation. However, Latvia is doing fine, and trying too much to do better would probably backfire.

 

[GX]

You are making things up. What Ukrainian immigrants? The number of kids in Latvia has dropped. Coaches in Latvia don't have material to work with. It's going to leave a mark. It's simple as that. It doesn't matter if it worries you or not.

It's a bit ridiculous to ring the doomsday bells due the 'there are less kids' argument, if we are STILL unable to maintain infrastructure to support adequate training even for the children that are there. Latgale, 1/4 of Latvia, still has only 1 rink, with 2 more finally in the pipeline.

So, even if we have less kids (for reference, the number of births have fluctuated at the same level since 1995 and haven't decreased for 20 years), average household income is increasing, there are still some new rinks showing up, so, in fact, more kids can play ice hockey.

To paint the picture clearer, here is the number of teams at the U9 and U10 Latvian leagues:

2017/18 - 29
2016/17 - 25
2015/16 - 23
2014/15 - 22
2013/14 - 22
2012/13 - 24
2011/12 - 19

N.B. Demographics IS tightly connected to income.

 

[Namejs]

Precisely...so those are AHL guys. They're just as much NHL guys as Nerijus Alisauskas is a "KHL tier" player.


I agreed with this.

I think the argument from efficiency, as previously stated, is poor. Slovenia is the most efficient nation. However, Latvia is doing fine, and trying too much to do better would probably backfire.

But that's exactly the point. Counting the number of players in the NHL is a bit absurd. Alisauskas plays in the KHL, so he's a KHL tier player.

I'm not sure what we're arguing about. The original point made by BalticWarrior was left unsubstantiated. I have no idea how specifically Lipmans mismanaged Latvian hockey and I have even less of an idea why would anything improve with the new board.

 

[Namejs]

It's a bit ridiculous to ring the doomsday bells due the 'there are less kids' argument, if we are STILL unable to maintain infrastructure to support adequate training even for the children that are there. Latgale, 1/4 of Latvia, still has only 1 rink, with 2 more finally in the pipeline.

So, even if we have less kids (for reference, the number of births have fluctuated at the same level since 1995 and haven't decreased for 20 years), average household income is increasing, there are still some new rinks showing up, so, in fact, more kids can play ice hockey.

To paint the picture clearer, here is the number of teams at the U9 and U10 Latvian leagues:

2017/18 - 29
2016/17 - 25
2015/16 - 23
2014/15 - 22
2013/14 - 22
2012/13 - 24
2011/12 - 19

N.B. Demographics IS tightly connected to income.

What you're saying about the number of kids and births is factually incorrect.

In 1991, there were a little less than 600k kids aged 0-14 in Latvia. In 2001, that number had dropped to about 400k. In 2011, that number was 295k. It has been stable during the last 6-7 years, but due to the nature of demographics, once the youngest generation reaches child bearing age, we're simply not going to have enough mothers and fathers and the number of births is going to decrease further.

You're also completely ignoring emigration rates.

Latgale is an economically depressed region with an ethnically mixed population of about 275k, which is nowhere close to 1/4 of the population. I don't know where are you pulling your numbers from.

It makes perfect sense there aren't a lot of rinks there. Soccer is more popular among East Slavic people.

Income is literally inversely correlated with fertility. So I guess it is tightly connected, yes, just in the opposite way.

But you are right in saying that an increase in income and the general growth of Latvian economy can compensate for the decrease in kids. The more parents are able to pay for equipment and so on, the more kids are going to play hockey and the more sense it will make to build new ice rinks or at least not close the current ones. And that is our only hope, not Ukrainians.

 

[BalticWarrior]

What you're saying about the number of kids and births is factually incorrect.

In 1991, there were a little less than 600k kids aged 0-14 in Latvia. In 2001, that number had dropped to about 400k. In 2011, that number was 295k. It has been stable during the last 6-7 years, but due to the nature of demographics, once the youngest generation reaches child bearing age, we're simply not going to have enough mothers and fathers and the number of births is going to decrease further.

You're also completely ignoring emigration rates.

Latgale is an economically depressed region with an ethnically mixed population of about 275k, which is nowhere close to 1/4 of the population. I don't know where are you pulling your numbers from.

It makes perfect sense there aren't a lot of rinks there. Soccer is more popular among East Slavic people.

Income is literally inversely correlated with fertility. So I guess it is tightly connected, yes, just in the opposite way.

But you are right in saying that an increase in income and the general growth of Latvian economy can compensate for the decrease in kids. The more parents are able to pay for equipment and so on, the more kids are going to play hockey and the more sense it will make to build new ice rinks or at least not close the current ones. And that is our only hope, not Ukrainians.

Do you honestly believe immigrants we would receive wouldnt adopt our customs one of which is hockey? Why?

 

[GX]

What you're saying about the number of kids and births is factually incorrect.

I said that the number of births in Latvia has stayed the same since 1995 and that is a fact, even if you don't feel like it.

Here is a small chart for you:

Nobody is denying that there were way more kids under 14 up until 2008 than now, as it would include the pre-1995 borns. The reality, however, is, that for 20 years now the birth rates have been stable. Yes, it is true that the birth rate should decrease some 10-15% in the foreseeable future.

I referred to Latgale as 1/4 considering the space it takes up, not population. Ice hockey development is a challenge of providing opportunity. If the opportunity (rink) is there in addition to some incentive, it is going to be used. One one hand you are afraid that there won't be kids to play hockey, on the other hand you simply dismiss 275k people (roughly 35k kids) just because they are 'East Slavic', thus must like soccer more. We as a nation are a bit too small to do that.

 

[Khokhlach86]

PP and PK lines

 

[Namejs]

Do you honestly believe immigrants we would receive wouldnt adopt our customs one of which is hockey? Why?

Because it doesn't happen elsewhere. And it isn't happening here either. How many East Slavic basketball players do we have?

 

[Namejs]

I said that the number of births in Latvia has stayed the same since 1995 and that is a fact, even if you don't feel like it.

Here is a small chart for you:

Nobody is denying that there were way more kids under 14 up until 2008 than now, as it would include the pre-1995 borns. The reality, however, is, that for 20 years now the birth rates have been stable. Yes, it is true that the birth rate should decrease some 10-15% in the foreseeable future.

I referred to Latgale as 1/4 considering the space it takes up, not population. Ice hockey development is a challenge of providing opportunity. If the opportunity (rink) is there in addition to some incentive, it is going to be used. One one hand you are afraid that there won't be kids to play hockey, on the other hand you simply dismiss 275k people (roughly 35k kids) just because they are 'East Slavic', thus must like soccer more. We as a nation are a bit too small to do that.

The reality is that the number of kids in Latvia has halved. We're talking about measuring efficiency here. Every single Latvian hockey player who has ever played in the NHL or has been drafted by an NHL franchise was born before that drop off took place. We are going to experience the effects of a demographic crisis in hockey during the next 10-15 years, as the generation of players born in 1980s gradually retires. That's what I'm talking about. Context matters. I am perfectly aware of how many children are born in Latvia every year.

I have no idea why space is important. What matters is population, income and another variable - the popularity of hockey. The income in Latgale is very low and the population is dwindling. There's definitely not enough demand for more than a few ice rinks there.

 

[BalticWarrior]

Because it doesn't happen elsewhere. And it isn't happening here either. How many East Slavic basketball players do we have?

Cant name you many basketball players but can name you plenty of players who played in NT who are of "east slavic" orgin as you put it. 25% of our population is "East slavic". Look at our this years U20 team i can spot more than a few Slavic names on the roster.

 

[Namejs]

Cant name you many basketball players but can name you plenty of players who played in NT who are of "east slavic" orgin as you put it. 25% of our population is "East slavic". Look at our this years U20 team i can spot more than a few Slavic names on the roster.

Spēlētāji | Vīriešu U20

19 men of East Slavic background out of 560 players. That's 3.3% relative to 32% of the population. Your whole assimilation thing isn't working out.

 

[BalticWarrior]

Spēlētāji | Vīriešu U20

19 men of East Slavic background out of 560 players. That's 3.3% relative to 32% of the population. Your whole assimilation thing isn't working out.

I was talking about hockey my dude. Why are you so hung up on basketball? Its not even the most populat spectator sport.

 

[Namejs]

I was talking about hockey my dude. Why are you so hung up on basketball? Its not even the most populat spectator sport.

Because it's a sport popular among ethnic Latvians. Your theory of assimilation implies that everyone should be playing basketball. They ain't.

 

[BalticWarrior]

Because it's a sport popular among ethnic Latvians. Your theory of assimilation implies that everyone should be playing basketball. They ain't.

Well no it doesnt since there plenty of guys in our hockey u-18 and u20 with Slavic roots. Basketball is irrelevant here. For us Ethnic latvians basketball is sort of a backdrop to hockey, its always been like that. Even in EC when our team was doing really good the hype was just not there.

 

[Namejs]

Well no it doesnt since there plenty of guys in our hockey u-18 and u20 with Slavic roots.

That's because hockey is quite popular among ethnic Russians.

 

[Namejs]

Blueger to the rescue! It's going to be a lot better looking top 9 against Germany and Denmark. Maybe we can even snatch a point against the US.