Tavares vs Stamkos

[GlitchMarner]

Here are Stamkos' best finishes in the scoring race:

2nd, 2nd, 5th, 5th

Here are Tavares':

2nd, 8th, 16th, 17th


Stamkos' best point totals (excluding this season):

97, 95, 91, 72

Best goal totals (excluding this season):

60, 51, 45, 43


Tavares's best point totals (excluding this season):

86, 81, 70, 67

Tavares' best goal totals (excluding this season):

38, 33, 31, 29


Stamkos had better linemate support in his best four seasons, but to be fair, he produced clearly better results in terms of raw output as well. To what extent the advantage in linemate superiority has helped him is debatable and one can't answer that question with certainly.

This season Stamkos has 27 goals and 81 points while Tavares has 32 goals and 70 points. Tavares is playing on a team that has three players (two other than himself) who are close to a PPG average. Additionally, his linemate Anders Lee is a top 10 goal scorer this season. He plays on a team that plays a offensive-oriented system and is trailing Stamkos by 12 points in the scoring race.

Tavares did finish in the top 10 in Selke voting last season, but I've read on more than one occasion that he is not good (to be kind about it) defensively. I don't watch the Isles with any sort of regularity.

They're both very talented players and I wouldn't complain about having either on my team, but I'm not convinced Tavares is the superior offensive talent or even the better all-around player at this point. Stamkos has the better career peak and better high-end seasons in terms of raw numbers and is outproducing Tavares by a considerable margin this season.

 

[tony d]

Went with Stamkos based upon this year.

 

[HOPE]

Its hard because they realy aren't similar.

Stamkos has the better skating and shot.

Tavares has the better hands, IQ and playmaking abilities.

Guess they are a wash defensively.

All comes down what kind of Center you need, its like comparing Big JOE to Carter.

Stamkos played with MUCH Better player during his entire career.

I personnaly prefer Tavares, Stamkos is what i'd look in a winger!

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I usually don't like to get into these kind of threads. But honestly... MSL, Kucherov vs. Pap Moulson?

I mean comparing a former MVP and future hall of famer and a current Art Ross leader vs. two player who have never sustained NHL success outside of playing with John Tavares. That's just a bit more than a "bugaboo."

The only thing I'll comment on the Moulson/Parenteau thing is, I think it's a bit misleading when people point out they haven't had success elsewhere.

1-In the case of Parenteau, that's not true. He actually had a more productive season (points per game wise) with Colorado next to Matt Duchene than any season he had with Tavares.

2-Parenteau and Moulson were smack dab in their prime years when they played with Tavares (ages 27 to around 29/30). Part of the reason they've fallen off a cliff since leaving NY is because they're also no longer at their peak. If *THIS* year's version of Parenteau and Moulson were still flanking Tavares, I very much doubt they'd be anywhere close production-wise to where they were a half decade ago next to him.

I also don't think the linemate thing can be used as much these past two seasons, considering he's got a two time 30-goal guy (Lee) and a guy who finished around 60 points (57 last year, 65 and counting this year) on his other wing. That's actually better than a lot of 1C's can boast about having.

Clearly, Stamkos has had the luxury of better linemates. But the question is, exactly how many extra points that accounts for?

It also doesn't account for chemistry. I think we can all agree that Phil Kessel is more talented and an overall better player than Chris Kunitz or Patric Hornqvist. Yet, Crosby had more chemistry and produced better with the latter two than with Kessel.

The same sort of applies to Tavares. Jordan Eberle is "more talented" than either Bailey or Lee. Eberle's actually had a 76 point season before, something neither Bailey or Lee has come close to. However, Eberle sucked on Tavares line this year and got moved next to Barzal, while Tavares showed chemistry with Lee and Bailey.

So I don't think it's quite as cut and dried as "he has lesser linemates, therefore him".

 

[La Masse]

Tavares

 

[CupHolders]

The only thing I'll comment on the Moulson/Parenteau thing is, I think it's a bit misleading when people point out they haven't had success elsewhere.

1-In the case of Parenteau, that's not true. He actually had a more productive season (points per game wise) with Colorado next to Matt Duchene than any season he had with Tavares.

2-Parenteau and Moulson were smack dab in their prime years when they played with Tavares (ages 27 to around 29/30). Part of the reason they've fallen off a cliff since leaving NY is because they're also no longer at their peak. If *THIS* year's version of Parenteau and Moulson were still flanking Tavares, I very much doubt they'd be anywhere close production-wise to where they were a half decade ago next to him.

I also don't think the linemate thing can be used as much these past two seasons, considering he's got a two time 30-goal guy (Lee) and a guy who finished around 60 points (57 last year, 65 and counting this year) on his other wing. That's actually better than a lot of 1C's can boast about having.

Clearly, Stamkos has had the luxury of better linemates. But the question is, exactly how many extra points that accounts for?

It also doesn't account for chemistry. I think we can all agree that Phil Kessel is more talented and an overall better player than Chris Kunitz or Patric Hornqvist. Yet, Crosby had more chemistry and produced better with the latter two than with Kessel.

The same sort of applies to Tavares. Jordan Eberle is "more talented" than either Bailey or Lee. Eberle's actually had a 76 point season before, something neither Bailey or Lee has come close to. However, Eberle sucked on Tavares line this year and got moved next to Barzal, while Tavares showed chemistry with Lee and Bailey.

So I don't think it's quite as cut and dried as "he has lesser linemates, therefore him".

Sheesh Sid there’s a lot to unpack here...

I think you might be too focused on the better linemate narrative and missing some of the specific nuances of each player.

This isn’t a simple better linemates argument. We’re talking Kucherov and St. Louis vs. Pap and Moulson. Both TB players are franchise players on their own right.

Pap and Moulson have some offensive skill, but have extremely limited overall games. Neither can carry a line like both TB players.

Pap in Colorado... One partial year is a poor sample size. And despite that year he was still pushed out by Colorado. Because he is an offensively talented but flawed player.

Finally, I don’t recall suggesting that it was cut and dry that Tavares should be picked because of lesser linemates. I’m personally undecided on who I would pick.

My only points of interest in this thread were...

1) The level of difference between Kucherov and St. Louis vs. Moulson and Pap... is astronomical!

2) Tavares most definitely would do better on TB then he has on the Isles. Better coaching, better defensive support, Better depth, better talent

3) Stamkos would not do as well on the Isles as he has on TB.

4) Swapping both players... I don’t know what that would mean for their newly adjusted offensive totals. Probably put Tavares ahead of Stamkos, but probably not at the plus 60 Stamkos has now.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

So would you think it is fair to take someone is who the 3rd or 4th most important player on their team and compare them to someone who has been their entire team for their entire career without taking anything but raw production into account?

I'm not sure what you're trying to argue with the last part of your post, but I will say that looking at where a player ranks on a team is a silly argument.

You can be the third best player on your team and still be a top 15 player when 1 and 2 are Hedman and Kucherov.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Sheesh Sid there’s a lot to unpack here...

I think you might be too focused on the better linemate narrative and missing some of the specific nuances of each player.

This isn’t a simple better linemates argument. We’re talking Kucherov and St. Louis vs. Pap and Moulson. Both TB players are franchise players on their own right.

Pap and Moulson have some offensive skill, but have extremely limited overall games. Neither can carry a line like both TB players.

Pap in Colorado... One partial year is a poor sample size. And despite that year he was still pushed out by Colorado. Because he is an offensively talented but flawed player.

My only points of interest in this thread were...

1) The level of difference between Kucherov and St. Louis vs. Moulson and Pap... is astronomical!

2) Tavares most definitely would do better on TB then he has on the Isles. Better coaching, better defensive support, Better depth, better talent

3) Stamkos would not do as well on the Isles as he has on TB.

4) Swapping both players... I don’t know what that would mean for their newly adjusted offensive totals. Probably put Tavares ahead of Stamkos, but probably not at the plus 60 Stamkos has now.

But people are still using the linemate excuse, even with Lee and Bailey. Those guys have been his linemates for about as long as Kucherov has been Stamkos'.

I get that linemates have *some* effect on production, but it just seems like every single time a Tavares versus Whoever thread comes up, the only thing that's harped on is the linemate thing and how that's always the reason why Tavares has less points than Player X.

It just seems like linemates is the catch-all argument to account for Tavares when his career high is 38 goals and 86 points and he's being compared to guys who've scored 15+ more goals or 10 to even 20 more points than his career high multiple times.

Finally, I don’t recall suggesting that it was cut and dry that Tavares should be picked because of lesser linemates. I’m personally undecided on who I would pick.

My apologies. I didn't mean to imply you specifically were saying this. When I said "you", I meant in the broad, general sense of the word.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I'd take Stamkos. Today's game is predicated on skating. JT has looked slow in the 2nd half of the year. Stamkos' skating gives him the advantage going fwd.

 

[CupHolders]

I'd take Stamkos. Today's game is predicated on skating. JT has looked slow in the 2nd half of the year. Stamkos' skating gives him the advantage going fwd.

And his shot, makes him more dangerous from further out too. Tavares offense has to come from effective cycling.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Have always voted Stamkos in this poll

 

[CupHolders]

But people are still using the linemate excuse, even with Lee and Bailey. Those guys have been his linemates for about as long as Kucherov has been Stamkos'.

I get that linemates have *some* effect on production, but it just seems like every single time a Tavares versus Whoever thread comes up, the only thing that's harped on is the linemate thing and how that's always the reason why Tavares has less points than Player X.

It just seems like linemates is the catch-all argument to account for Tavares when his career high is 38 goals and 86 points and he's being compared to guys who've scored 15+ more goals or 10 to even 20 more points than his career high multiple times.

Sid, The way you word this leads me to believe that you have seen this argument regarding Tavares vs. other players. I personally can't speak for people who push that argument and or what other players he may or may not be given the linemate handicap against. Generally, I do not like dealing in hypotheticals. So I am in an uncomfortable position of debating something I generally do not like to do so... what would Tavares do on a better team or with better players.

My previous replies were primarily driven by two points that stood out to me:

1) "Linemate bugaboo" - Again, I generally do not give too much credence to difference in linemates. As I do believe chemistry does play a strong factor (Your previous mention of Eberle is a good example). However, in the case of Kucherov and St. Louis vs. PAP and Moulson. You have two players in TB that I think are astoundingly better than both Islander players. I always felt both were some of the most overrated one-way producers in an Islander uniform (Mariusz Czerkawski still takes the cake).

Position withstanding, I'd probably take Kucherov over both Stamkos and Tavares. Additionally, St. Louis in his prime is easily better than any Islander during the same time period. Even if they only averaged 50 points per year, both players more complete game would crush either and most Islanders playing during Tavares career.

2) The notion that it is slam dunk for Stamkos over Tavares. Again when you consider the math... Stamkos 666 Points in 658 Games. Tavares 610 Points in 659 Games. That's a difference of 56 points in the an 8 year average (660/82 = 8.04).

Is it truly inconceivable to think that Tavares on TB could not close that gap? When you consider the difference in players, coaching, management. Even if it's only 4/5 points per year it still puts the difference at pretty low statistical significance. Does it win the argument for Tavares? Probably not. But it should at least give pause from making it... Stamkos AINEC!!!

Finally, just so you don't think I have been avoiding your comments about Lee and Bailey. Yes, they are upgrades over PaP and Moulson. Overall they have helped more than harmed. All three together can be suspect defensively (Could be a function of Doug Weight). Their time as a line has coincided with the Isles regression in defense which impacted production. More time in the defensive zone, leads to less time to cycle in the offensive zone.

Just as an aside, I wanted to comment on the drop in Tavares production the past 2 years. Much was made about his fall from 80 points each year. However, it coincides with the Isles PP being in the bottom third of the league. His PP production fell under his average and below 20 points each year. This year with a PP back to the top 1/3 of the league he has already reached his 25 point average and he is on pace to return to 80 point levels.

So what does all of this mean.... I'd probably take Stamkos. And you should probably return to convincing the Pittsburgh fanbase that a Nelson and Quine for Jake Guentzel is a real good thing for you guys.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I think Stamkos has gotten the better support staff. Tavares would have been insane next to MSL or Kucherov.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Tavares for me but it's close
Maybe it's just me but personally I always though Stamkos was well surrounded in Tampa, especially when compared to a guy like Tavares on Long Island

 

[authentic]

And his shot, makes him more dangerous from further out too. Tavares offense has to come from effective cycling.

He can snipe from further out yes but I don't think you quite realize how good of a shot Tavares has if you think his offense has to come from effective cycling.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Sid, The way you word this leads me to believe that you have seen this argument regarding Tavares vs. other players. I personally can't speak for people who push that argument and or what other players he may or may not be given the linemate handicap against. Generally, I do not like dealing in hypotheticals. So I am in an uncomfortable position of debating something I generally do not like to do so... what would Tavares do on a better team or with better players.

It seems to be brought up each time Tavares is compared to someone who has out-produced him. I recall the Tavares/Stamkos debates from around 2011, 2012, when Stamkos was scoring 50 and 60 goals and getting 95 and 97 points, while Tavares had (at the time) a career best of 31 goals and 81 points. The argument was that linemates were the reason for the massive gap in production.

While obviously linemates DO have an effect, my contention has always been that it's not quite as severe an effect as some folks suggest it is. A good linemate over an average one probably will result in somewhere between 5 to 8 extra points a year, maybe 10 in an absolute drastic case. But often times, it seemed like folks argued the difference between Tavares being a point per game guy (around 80 points) and a 100 point guy was his linemates. IMO, that's just too much of a gap to blame linemates on.

My previous replies were primarily driven by two points that stood out to me:

1) "Linemate bugaboo" - Again, I generally do not give too much credence to difference in linemates. As I do believe chemistry does play a strong factor (Your previous mention of Eberle is a good example). However, in the case of Kucherov and St. Louis vs. PAP and Moulson. You have two players in TB that I think are astoundingly better than both Islander players. I always felt both were some of the most overrated one-way producers in an Islander uniform (Mariusz Czerkawski still takes the cake).

Position withstanding, I'd probably take Kucherov over both Stamkos and Tavares. Additionally, St. Louis in his prime is easily better than any Islander during the same time period. Even if they only averaged 50 points per year, both players more complete game would crush either and most Islanders playing during Tavares career.

2) The notion that it is slam dunk for Stamkos over Tavares. Again when you consider the math... Stamkos 666 Points in 658 Games. Tavares 610 Points in 659 Games. That's a difference of 56 points in the an 8 year average (660/82 = 8.04).

Is it truly inconceivable to think that Tavares on TB could not close that gap? When you consider the difference in players, coaching, management. Even if it's only 4/5 points per year it still puts the difference at pretty low statistical significance. Does it win the argument for Tavares? Probably not. But it should at least give pause from making it... Stamkos AINEC!!!

For the record, I don't think it's "ainec" for Stamkos, either. The only reason I commented on the linemate thing was more the broader issue where I've seen the linemate excuse be brought up to negate even 15 and 20-point gaps in production.

Just as an aside, I wanted to comment on the drop in Tavares production the past 2 years. Much was made about his fall from 80 points each year. However, it coincides with the Isles PP being in the bottom third of the league. His PP production fell under his average and below 20 points each year. This year with a PP back to the top 1/3 of the league he has already reached his 25 point average and he is on pace to return to 80 point levels.

Completely agree. I think Tavares is closer to the point per game guy than he is the 70 point and below guy the past two seasons.

So what does all of this mean.... I'd probably take Stamkos. And you should probably return to convincing the Pittsburgh fanbase that a Nelson and Quine for Jake Guentzel is a real good thing for you guys.

Ironically enough, I could even see the argument for Tavares. But not because he'd produce X amount with better linemates. Rather, it depends on what "style" of player you prefer. A speedy, elite 40+ goal scorer, or a cerebral 30 goal, 50 assist guy (Stamkos' 50+ assists this season notwithstanding).

 

[CupHolders]

He can snipe from further out yes but I don't think you quite realize how good of a shot Tavares has if you think his offense has to come from effective cycling.

Actually, I think Tavares has great shot especially in tight... a great release with accuracy. It’s as you said just less effective than Stamkos from a greater distance. Stamkos also has a onetimer.

To clarify, I meant that Tavares’ offense is more likely to come from establishing control of the offensive zone. Usually through one or several combinations of forechecking, creating turnovers or maintaing possession through board work and cycling.

It’s less common for him to score off fast breaking transitions, breakaways or stealthy finding a spot to snipe a shot.

 

[Vachon23]

Tavares for me ! he is a more complete player and Stamkos I found that in the playoff his plays doesn't step up. He has 35 pts in 49 games it's not bad but it's far from the PPG player he is