Rebuild conversation # 172

WingsMJN2965

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Oct 13, 2017
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BUF, EDM, PHI, CAR win. FLA gets a point. Not bad. Now watch these dummies pull out a win tomorrow.
 

Reddwit

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Feb 4, 2016
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It seems that greater parity in the league results in a much later threshold of when teams know whether they're a buyer or seller. I say that because, while Green should be a slam dunk as at least a late 1st rounder in return, it might be difficult to find a buyer for a Nyquist/Tatar, or even a Booth, since the lion's share of the league will be in the camp of, 'we COULD make the playoffs...I think'.

If there's a flurry of activity, I'd expect it to be at the very last minute before the deadline. In addition to hoping that Detroit is a significant seller, I hope that they are very patient/thorough in burning up the phone lines to get the best deal possible in each attempted trade.

Booth is going to be an afterthought and doesn't really factor into things but Green is close to being in the same camp that Nyquist/Tatar are in where they aren't just deadline acquisitions but potential additions who can help you make the playoffs now and also help you progress the following year. Nyquist and Tatar are signed for the future but Green is at the age where he could be willing to stick around with a progressing, contender-hopeful for reasonable term. We should have the benefit of being out of the playoff picture soon enough where we can feel out if Green is a safe enough candidate to allow other teams to speak to him about a contract extension. That could open up the field of offers for Green to those teams who think they may not be a real contender this year but could be a playoff team now and a contender in the following 1-2 years. That could leave us with those 3 guys looking attractive not just to contenders at the deadline but also to low-level teams who feel they are imminently on the up-swing.

Another thing we should consider is, if we're able to move a lot of salary near the deadline, and we have reliable prognosticators who say the cap really is going up 3-5 million, then we should be open to taking on short-term cap dumps from playoff teams in exchange for picks.
 

Leadzedder

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Jan 2, 2005
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Alrighty, tonight's games just wrapped up. With 6 of the 9 teams playing tonight, we ended up with a tank score of 7 out of 12.

Edmonton, Philly and Carolina got wins.
Florida got a point
Colorado and Ottawa lost.

We'll call that a good night for the tank and the Buffalo win is gravy. Detroit did not move from the 27th spot. No teams came into or out of the 4 point window.

Updated stats below.

Rank. Team Games - Points (Row)


20. BOS 27 - 32 (13)
21. VAN 31 - 32 (14)

22. PHI 30 - 31 (12)
23. CAR 30 - 31 (9)
24. COL 30 - 30 (13)
25. MTL 31 - 30 (12)
26. FLA 31 - 29 (10)
27. DET 30 - 28 (9)
28. EDM 31 - 28 (12)
29. OTT 29 - 25 (8)

Detroit plays tonight against Boston. Ottawa and Vancouver also play.

Detroit can finish the night in either 26, 27 or 28th.

As far as a "tank score", I'm sure to do it proper I would add extra weight to the Detroit results but I'm not smart enough so I won't.
 
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WingsMJN2965

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Oct 13, 2017
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Another thing we should consider is, if we're able to move a lot of salary near the deadline, and we have reliable prognosticators who say the cap really is going up 3-5 million, then we should be open to taking on short-term cap dumps from playoff teams in exchange for picks.

Depends on how good the pick/prospect is...

Candidates I can think of would be:

David Backes - $6M per through 20-21
Jason Spezza - $7.5M next year
Loui Eriksson - $6M through 21-22
Brooks Orpik - $5.5M next year
Clarke MacArthur - $4.65M through 19-20
Dion Phaneuf - $7M through 20-21
Jori Lehtera - $4.7M next year
Andrew MacDonald - $5M through 19-20
Troy Brouwer - $4.5M through 19-20

That's just going through the top 15 cap teams. I'd be careful on Ericsson and Phaneuf. The rest expire soon enough that Detroit wont have to pay anybody major.

Clarke MacArthur actually makes a lot of sense. Detroit obviously doesn't lack money and we know Melnyk hates paying people. Detroit absorbs MacArthur's contract and LTIRs him. Melnyk saves $4.65M.
 

Leadzedder

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Depends on how good the pick/prospect is...

Candidates I can think of would be:

David Backes - $6M per through 20-21
Jason Spezza - $7.5M next year
Loui Eriksson - $6M through 21-22
Brooks Orpik - $5.5M next year
Clarke MacArthur - $4.65M through 19-20
Dion Phaneuf - $7M through 20-21
Jori Lehtera - $4.7M next year
Andrew MacDonald - $5M through 19-20
Troy Brouwer - $4.5M through 19-20

That's just going through the top 15 cap teams. I'd be careful on Ericsson and Phaneuf. The rest expire soon enough that Detroit wont have to pay anybody major.

Clarke MacArthur actually makes a lot of sense. Detroit obviously doesn't lack money and we know Melnyk hates paying people. Detroit absorbs MacArthur's contract and LTIRs him. Melnyk saves $4.65M.


Good thought and good list. Another big salary would need to be offloaded at the TDL to even consider this. It's a long shot but...

looking at the MacArthur example, his actual salary for the last 3 years is $4.75m. Times that by 2 and 1/4 and the money that would need to be paid would be near $10.7m.

That's a lot of money. What's that worth in a draft pick?

And do we really want $4.65m in dead space for the 2019-20 season?
 

WingsMJN2965

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Oct 13, 2017
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Good thought and good list. Another big salary would need to be offloaded at the TDL to even consider this. It's a long shot but...

looking at the MacArthur example, his actual salary for the last 3 years is $4.75m. Times that by 2 and 1/4 and the money that would need to be paid would be near $10.7m.

That's a lot of money. What's that worth in a draft pick?

And do we really want $4.65m in dead space for the 2019-20 season?

Actually made a trade thread. Found out that most teams LTIR insure their players, so about 80% of their contract is paid for them. So Ottawa really doesn't pay that much money for MacArthur.

You learn something new every day.
 

Red Stanley

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Edmonton and Ottawa need to pick it up. It would be very embarrassing for either team to not at least make the playoffs this year.
 

Leadzedder

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The Vancouver game is still in play but I'll predict a loss. If not, I'll fix that later.

So, I think when trying to figure out a "tank score" for the night I won't bother with doing anything with the Detroit's result. Seems traitor-ish. As we all know, it's the most important thing that will go into their end of year result but we'll just look at it separately.

Both Boston & Ottawa got wins. Van lost. That's 4 out of 6.

Even with Detroit getting a point we'll call that a good night for the tank train. Plus that was a pretty good hockey game to watch.

Updated stats below.

Rank. Team Games - Points (Row)

20. ANA 31 - 33 (11)
21. VAN 32 - 32 (14)
22. PHI 30 - 31 (12)
23. CAR 30 - 31 (9)
24. COL 30 - 30 (13)
25. MTL 31 - 30 (12)
26. FLA 31 - 29 (10)
27. DET 31 - 29 (9)
28. EDM 31 - 28 (13)
29. OTT 30 - 27 (9)

Detroit will finish the night in the same 27th spot.

Boston has got ahead of the 4 point window but Anaheim is now within 4 points.
 
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crashnburnluder

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Dec 19, 2010
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The Ottawa fire sale might hurt us dropping if they can't find some wins, but once again our t OT and Shootouts will haunt us, last year out undefeated shootout record kept us out of the top 5th.
 
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Leadzedder

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Tonight's games

Rank. Team - Games - Points (Row)

20. ANA - 31 - 33 (11)

21. VAN - 32 - 32 (14)
22. PHI - 30 - 31 (12)
23. CAR - 30 - 31 (9)
24. COL - 30 - 30 (13)
25. MTL - 31 - 30 (12)
26. FLA - 31 - 29 (10)
27. DET - 31 - 29 (9)
28. EDM - 31 - 28 (13)

29. OTT - 30 - 27 (9)

6 of the teams in action. Hoping for minimum 6 out of 11 points. (Florida plays Colorado)

Detroit will end tomorrow night at either 26, 27 or 28
 
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TheMule93

On a mule rides the swindler
May 26, 2015
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Nashville is getting some crazy bounces tonight, now up 4-1 on Vancouver halfway through the game.

You made me go watch the replays of their goals, and wow you weren't kidding. Three of their goals were unassisted, and all of which were complete flukes.

Their only goal that was assisted was a shorthanded 2 on 0 haha, how does that happen? WTF Vancouver
 

crashnburnluder

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Dec 19, 2010
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I guess my only question is I think we will finish at best 3rd when we sell, what the chances are of Arizona or Buffalo can catch us?
 

Leadzedder

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I guess my only question is I think we will finish at best 3rd when we sell, what the chances are of Arizona or Buffalo can catch us?

Personally, I'd be pretty surprised if we finish as low as 3rd worst. Any kind of winning streak in the next 50 games is gonna throw us upwards in the standings.

Then again, we started the year with great goaltending, we've had no injury trouble, our special teams have been decent (overall) and losing Green will hurt... so who knows.
 
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Pavels Dog

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I guess my only question is I think we will finish at best 3rd when we sell, what the chances are of Arizona or Buffalo can catch us?
Near zero. We’ve been in near freefall the last 10 games. Still a sizeable gap. This team has the ability to go on a winning streak or two, something Buffalo/Arizona seem incapable of.

But who know, still early.
 

Red Stanley

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I guess my only question is I think we will finish at best 3rd when we sell, what the chances are of Arizona or Buffalo can catch us?

Unlikely, unless we get hit hard with injuries like last year. Howard going down and Mrazek not stabilizing would do it, too, I guess. It's not like we're winning too much with solid goaltending anyway.
 

Leadzedder

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Jan 2, 2005
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Sabres lose again. Not helping us....

Yeah, a Sabres win would have been nice. Hopefully as the season goes on they become reachable.

Update from tonight's games...

Anaheim, Montreal, Philadelphia and Colorado get wins.
Florida and Edmonton take losses.

Out of a possible 11 points on the night, the outcome is 8. Decent.

Rank. Team - Games - Points (Row)

20. ANA - 32 - 35 (12)
21. PHI - 31 - 33 (13)
22. COL - 31 - 32 (14)
23. VAN - 32 - 32 (14)
24. MTL - 32 - 32 (13)
25. CAR - 30 - 31 (9)
26. DET - 31 - 29 (9)
27. FLA - 32 - 29 (10)
28. EDM - 32 - 28 (13)
29. OTT - 30 - 27 (9)


With Edmonton not passing Detroit and Florida losing, Detroit ends up rising to 26th, due to games played.

Anaheim leaves the 4 point window.
 

Redder Winger

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May 4, 2017
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Depends on how good the pick/prospect is...

Candidates I can think of would be:

David Backes - $6M per through 20-21
Jason Spezza - $7.5M next year
Loui Eriksson - $6M through 21-22
Brooks Orpik - $5.5M next year
Clarke MacArthur - $4.65M through 19-20
Dion Phaneuf - $7M through 20-21
Jori Lehtera - $4.7M next year
Andrew MacDonald - $5M through 19-20
Troy Brouwer - $4.5M through 19-20

That's just going through the top 15 cap teams. I'd be careful on Ericsson and Phaneuf. The rest expire soon enough that Detroit wont have to pay anybody major.

Clarke MacArthur actually makes a lot of sense. Detroit obviously doesn't lack money and we know Melnyk hates paying people. Detroit absorbs MacArthur's contract and LTIRs him. Melnyk saves $4.65M.

Worth thinking about if they give you a decent asset.
But if it costs you the space to keep an asset you want, then it's counterproductive.
 

Leadzedder

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Jan 2, 2005
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A look ahead to tomorrow's games. Detroit plays Toronto. Any Detroit win groups them back close to a bunch of teams.

2 other games going on with a possible 4 burnittotheground points available.

Not much movement at stake. Detroit will end tomorrow's games either 26th, or 27th. (if they lose in regulation Florida will pass them with games played / row)

Rank. Team - Games - Points (Row)


21. PHI - 31 - 33 (13)
22. COL - 31 - 32 (14)
23. VAN - 32 - 32 (14)
24. MTL - 32 - 32 (13)
25. CAR - 30 - 31 (9)
26. DET - 31 - 29 (9)

27. FLA - 32 - 29 (10)
28. EDM - 32 - 28 (13)
29. OTT - 30 - 27 (9)
 

Leadzedder

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Jan 2, 2005
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Well, if they gotta win, may as well be against the Leafs.

Van wins. Carolina wins with Buffalo getting the single point. That's cool.

4/4.


Rank. Team - Games - Points (Row)


19. PIT - 33 - 35 (16)
20. BOS - 29 - 34 (14)
21. VAN - 33 - 34 (15)
22. PHI - 31 - 33 (13)
23. CAR - 31 - 33 (10)
24. COL - 31 - 32 (14)
25. MTL - 32 - 32 (13)
26. DET - 32 - 31 (10)
27. FLA - 32 - 29 (10)
28. EDM - 32 - 28 (13)
29. OTT - 30 - 27 (9)
 
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Reddwit

Registered User
Feb 4, 2016
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Depends on how good the pick/prospect is...

Candidates I can think of would be:

David Backes - $6M per through 20-21
Jason Spezza - $7.5M next year
Loui Eriksson - $6M through 21-22
Brooks Orpik - $5.5M next year
Clarke MacArthur - $4.65M through 19-20
Dion Phaneuf - $7M through 20-21
Jori Lehtera - $4.7M next year
Andrew MacDonald - $5M through 19-20
Troy Brouwer - $4.5M through 19-20

That's just going through the top 15 cap teams. I'd be careful on Ericsson and Phaneuf. The rest expire soon enough that Detroit wont have to pay anybody major.

Clarke MacArthur actually makes a lot of sense. Detroit obviously doesn't lack money and we know Melnyk hates paying people. Detroit absorbs MacArthur's contract and LTIRs him. Melnyk saves $4.65M.

Its not just about the big money players though. Could just be a guy who makes too much money for the role he plays on a team that wants to make a big money for the deadline. Maybe someone like Braydon Coburn who makes $3.7M to play #6 minutes.

And I actually think Orpik would be a great pick up should we have the space. Carlson is Washington's #1D and he's tearing it up this year. Moving Orpik could be integral to fleshing out that defense with all of Niskanen, Carlson, and Orlov signed to big money. As much as Orpik has devolved and was, IMO, a big reason for Washington's playoff failures this past year, he's still a nasty SOB who, by all accounts, has been a great leader and locker room presence throughout the years. Orpik + a 2019 2nd for a 7th or something at the draft? Sign me up.
 

Leadzedder

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Jan 2, 2005
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Lots of these teams playing tonight. Could be a lot of movement. Detroit can't move though so they'll remain in the 26 spot.

15 hurryupdraftlottery points available tonight. (habs play sens)


Rank. Team - Games - Points (Row)


19. PIT - 33 - 35 (16)
20. BOS - 29 - 34 (14)

21. VAN - 33 - 34 (15)
22. PHI - 31 - 33 (13)
23. CAR - 31 - 33 (10)
24. COL - 31 - 32 (14)
25. MTL - 32 - 32 (13)

26. DET - 32 - 31 (10)
27. FLA - 32 - 29 (10)
28. EDM - 32 - 28 (13)
29. OTT - 30 - 27 (9)
 

Leadzedder

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Jan 2, 2005
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11/15 tonight. As far as other teams winning to give us a lower ranking, they definitely have been doing that since starting this thing. Seems to always be more than 50%.

Edmonton and Ottawa with wins so that helps. Pittsburgh leaves the tracker.


Updated info...


Rank. Team - Games - Points (Row)


19. BOS - 30 - 35 (14)
20. PHI - 32 - 35 (14)
21. CAL - 33 - 35 (14)
23. CAR - 32 - 35 (11)
21. VAN - 33 - 34 (15)
24. COL - 32 - 32 (14)
25. MTL - 33 - 32 (13)
26. DET - 32 - 31 (10)
28. EDM - 33 - 30 (14)
29. OTT - 31 - 29 (10)
27. FLA - 32 - 29 (10)


Light schedule tomorrow night. Only 3 of the teams in action. 5 points available. (Van plays Calgary)

Detroit will remain at 26th after the night. I messed up yesterday and didn't add Calgary. I didn't notice they were within 4 points. Hopefully they win and get lost, and some space opens up between that chunk of teams and Detroit. Get this tracker leaner.
 
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