Tage Thompson's ceiling

[67Blues]

Do you really think he has a higher floor than Thomas? I would have thought Thomas has a higher floor and higher ceiling, given how defensively responsible Thomas is.

I would say right now, the floor for Thompson is higher than Thomas/Kyrou/Kostin only because he has actually logged NHL games. Once those guys hit the ice, that measurement vanishes. Thompson at best will be a top 6. Those other three should be a top sixer and possibly a top liner in their careers based off of their skills and intelligence. I'd be happy if Thompson would be a very productive third liner to give the Blues something they have always needed, a third line that can score.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

100% agree. Though i think the one time he ripped 3 straight one timers 15 feet over the net is why they never put him there lmao. our 2nd PP could have tage at the left circle, petro/parayko up top, fabbri as the bumper for quick one-t's and high tips, steen in front, Robert thomas on the right flank looking to hit tage/ petro/parayko for one-t's.

Parayko can't hit a one-timer. He has a long release and shoots glove high. Biggest beef with Petro over the years as well as Steen and Tarasenko is they miss they net more than they hit it. Petro was better last year. I can live with the kid missing as much latitude as these 4 get. Maybe Thomas is his future center as I wouldn't keep Thompson there. Utilize a player's talents though. Rarely did you see him tee one up and let it fly. That is a big mistake not to take advantage of. He could be one of the few first class shooters we have developed in awhile. I remember when we drafted him, and nearly all on here didn't like the pick. I certainly did. I watched him score a LOT. Letunov knew how to set him up, and he made it count. Something you can't teach, and it is a tough goal at every level. Not some 6'1" 180 pound junior or college a step or two faster guy making a few power moves in the middle on a mediocre defense and scoring. Doesn't fly well at the next level. If we got 20 out of him, then it would be awesome. That would still be better than any other secondary scoring we get. He may be a bit more of a one trick pony then Thomas, Kostin or Kyrou, but it is one heckuva a trick to behold.

 

[bluesXwinXtheXcup]

Tage is a center.

Was Yeo playing him in a defensive role so he can more easily accept that position next year? Or the next?

There's more responsibilities as a centerman. Much like Fabbri was used as a winger in his first year. At the start of camp, Robby was going to get a look at center.

Is he our 2nd line C of the future?

This was a post before team USA named their lines. Tage is a center, even if people haven't seen it yet.

Armstrong sees Thompson as a centerman IMO.

Just can't see it on the Blues yet.

 

[EastonBlues22]

This was a post before team USA named their lines. Tage is a center, even if people haven't seen it yet.

Armstrong sees Thompson as a centerman IMO.

Just can't see it on the Blues yet.

Or in the AHL, or in his previous stints with team USA with the youth teams.

Team USA's center depth for this tournament is Larkin, Ryan, Coleman, White, and Thompson. Not unusual for this sort of tournament, but not exactly stacked with options down the middle.

Are you even sure that Thompson is actually playing center? I haven't watched either game, but Team USA's twitter feed had him as the 4th line RWer in the lines they released before both games.

 

[Shwabeal]

Or in the AHL, or in his previous stints with team USA with the youth teams.

Team USA's center depth for this tournament is Larkin, Ryan, Coleman, White, and Thompson. Not unusual for this sort of tournament, but not exactly stacked with options down the middle.

Are you even sure that Thompson is actually playing center? I haven't watched either game, but Team USA's twitter feed had him as the 4th line RWer in the lines they released before both games.

He played C in their exhibition game. Probably says something about his game there that they decided to move him to the wing after one meaningless game.

 

[Majorityof1]

Parayko can't hit a one-timer. He has a long release and shoots glove high. Biggest beef with Petro over the years as well as Steen and Tarasenko is they miss they net more than they hit it. Petro was better last year. I can live with the kid missing as much latitude as these 4 get. Maybe Thomas is his future center as I wouldn't keep Thompson there. Utilize a player's talents though. Rarely did you see him tee one up and let it fly. That is a big mistake not to take advantage of. He could be one of the few first class shooters we have developed in awhile. I remember when we drafted him, and nearly all on here didn't like the pick. I certainly did. I watched him score a LOT. Letunov knew how to set him up, and he made it count. Something you can't teach, and it is a tough goal at every level. Not some 6'1" 180 pound junior or college a step or two faster guy making a few power moves in the middle on a mediocre defense and scoring. Doesn't fly well at the next level. If we got 20 out of him, then it would be awesome. That would still be better than any other secondary scoring we get. He may be a bit more of a one trick pony then Thomas, Kostin or Kyrou, but it is one heckuva a trick to behold.

The casual misinformation on this site is ridiculous. Someone says something and just repeats it when it has absolutely zero basis in fact. How often you hit the net can be calculated and Petro is not below 50%, nor is he particularly worse than any comparable defenseman. Individual Fenwick For (iFF) is the number of missed shots + shots on goal. So if you take shots on goal (iSF) divided by iFF, you get Shooting percentage. Here are the on-goal percentages for the past 3 years for each:

		iSF	IFF	On goal %
Pietrangelo	17-18	137	192	71.4%
	16-17	127	172	73.8%
	15-16	131	174	75.3%
Steen	17-18	117	151	77.5%
	16-17	78	115	67.8%
	15-16	110	141	78.0%
Tarasneko	17-18	209	299	69.9%
	16-17	202	274	73.7%
	15-16	210	273	76.9%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Not a single one close to 50% much less below. If you want to compare shots on goal to Corsi (includes blocked shots) than they are still inline with most high volume shooters in the league.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

The casual misinformation on this site is ridiculous. Someone says something and just repeats it when it has absolutely zero basis in fact. How often you hit the net can be calculated and Petro is not below 50%, nor is he particularly worse than any comparable defenseman. Individual Fenwick For (iFF) is the number of missed shots + shots on goal. So if you take shots on goal (iSF) divided by iFF, you get Shooting percentage. Here are the on-goal percentages for the past 3 years for each:

		iSF	IFF	On goal %
Pietrangelo	17-18	137	192	71.4%
	16-17	127	172	73.8%
	15-16	131	174	75.3%
Steen	17-18	117	151	77.5%
	16-17	78	115	67.8%
	15-16	110	141	78.0%
Tarasneko	17-18	209	299	69.9%
	16-17	202	274	73.7%
	15-16	210	273	76.9%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Not a single one close to 50% much less below. If you want to compare shots on goal to Corsi (includes blocked shots) than they are still inline with most high volume shooters in the league.

As Ronald Reagan once said, “there you go with your ‘counting’ and ‘numbers’ again”

 

[bluesXwinXtheXcup]

Or in the AHL, or in his previous stints with team USA with the youth teams.

Team USA's center depth for this tournament is Larkin, Ryan, Coleman, White, and Thompson. Not unusual for this sort of tournament, but not exactly stacked with options down the middle.

Are you even sure that Thompson is actually playing center? I haven't watched either game, but Team USA's twitter feed had him as the 4th line RWer in the lines they released before both games.

I'm watching him play center, right now. It's on NHL Network.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I'm watching him play center, right now. It's on NHL Network.

USA doesn't play today. Which game are you watching?

 

[DatDude44]

Parayko can't hit a one-timer. He has a long release and shoots glove high. Biggest beef with Petro over the years as well as Steen and Tarasenko is they miss they net more than they hit it. Petro was better last year. I can live with the kid missing as much latitude as these 4 get. Maybe Thomas is his future center as I wouldn't keep Thompson there. Utilize a player's talents though. Rarely did you see him tee one up and let it fly. That is a big mistake not to take advantage of. He could be one of the few first class shooters we have developed in awhile. I remember when we drafted him, and nearly all on here didn't like the pick. I certainly did. I watched him score a LOT. Letunov knew how to set him up, and he made it count. Something you can't teach, and it is a tough goal at every level. Not some 6'1" 180 pound junior or college a step or two faster guy making a few power moves in the middle on a mediocre defense and scoring. Doesn't fly well at the next level. If we got 20 out of him, then it would be awesome. That would still be better than any other secondary scoring we get. He may be a bit more of a one trick pony then Thomas, Kostin or Kyrou, but it is one heckuva a trick to behold.

Th point was it puts tage into the same spot he scored all the goals in college. The ovi/Laine spot with Thomas feeding him with seam passes

 

[bluesXwinXtheXcup]

USA doesn't play today. Which game are you watching?

Yesterday's, sorry thought it was live. But he was playing center. I have mixed feelings about it though because I like him at RW because we're lacking right handed wingers.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

The casual misinformation on this site is ridiculous. Someone says something and just repeats it when it has absolutely zero basis in fact. How often you hit the net can be calculated and Petro is not below 50%, nor is he particularly worse than any comparable defenseman. Individual Fenwick For (iFF) is the number of missed shots + shots on goal. So if you take shots on goal (iSF) divided by iFF, you get Shooting percentage. Here are the on-goal percentages for the past 3 years for each:

		iSF	IFF	On goal %
Pietrangelo	17-18	137	192	71.4%
	16-17	127	172	73.8%
	15-16	131	174	75.3%
Steen	17-18	117	151	77.5%
	16-17	78	115	67.8%
	15-16	110	141	78.0%
Tarasneko	17-18	209	299	69.9%
	16-17	202	274	73.7%
	15-16	210	273	76.9%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Not a single one close to 50% much less below. If you want to compare shots on goal to Corsi (includes blocked shots) than they are still inline with most high volume shooters in the league.

Interesting...what determines a shot for the stats? Is icing the puck on goal a shot? What determines a pass? What determines a dump in? I think Brett Hull said it best in a pregame interview. I don't understand why Tarasenko doesn't just shoot on goal more and trust his shot. He tries to be too fine.... Corsi didn't score 600 goals.....

The point is the Tage needs to be put in a couple posts and let him be a shooter. You won't be disappointed. Use his talent he has. 18 goals out of Steen is a disappointment. He certainly had opportunity to score 30 to 40 again. I felt sorry for Stastny. It was like watching a kid miss a ball on a tee.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Team USA's twitter listed him at RW again for this one, and the "confirmed" lines in the HF GDT list him at LW. I've been watching since about the 16:30 mark of the 2nd period and I have yet to see him on the ice. Lots of PP time for USA, though, so I wouldn't read anything into that beyond that Thompson is filling a 4th line role.

I have no idea how USA hasn't scored yet. They're getting scads of premium chances.

Edit: Kane finally puts one in on a 5-on-3 PP.

 

[EastonBlues22]

There were five USA PPs (including a 5-on-3), and an extended 5-on-3 for GER, but I didn't see Thompson on the ice once in the second period.

He was on the ice for warmups, but I'm honestly not sure if he's playing at all. I saw every other forward play for USA except for Milano, so either of the two could be the healthy scratch.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Milano is in, so I'm guessing Thompson is sitting for this one. Till next game, then.

 

[Brian39]

The casual misinformation on this site is ridiculous. Someone says something and just repeats it when it has absolutely zero basis in fact. How often you hit the net can be calculated and Petro is not below 50%, nor is he particularly worse than any comparable defenseman. Individual Fenwick For (iFF) is the number of missed shots + shots on goal. So if you take shots on goal (iSF) divided by iFF, you get Shooting percentage. Here are the on-goal percentages for the past 3 years for each:

		iSF	IFF	On goal %
Pietrangelo	17-18	137	192	71.4%
	16-17	127	172	73.8%
	15-16	131	174	75.3%
Steen	17-18	117	151	77.5%
	16-17	78	115	67.8%
	15-16	110	141	78.0%
Tarasneko	17-18	209	299	69.9%
	16-17	202	274	73.7%
	15-16	210	273	76.9%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Not a single one close to 50% much less below. If you want to compare shots on goal to Corsi (includes blocked shots) than they are still inline with most high volume shooters in the league.

Where are you getting these numbers? They are staggeringly off. Tarasenko had 306 shots this year, 286 in 16/17 and 292 in 15/16. Petro had 216 shots this year and 181/182 in the 2 prior years. The iFF is also way off, as only 299 shot attempts for a volume shooter like Tarasenko would be incredibly low. Finally, getting 70% or more of your shot attempts on net would be absurdly high. Very few guys can do that with consistency.

However, I agree with your point that Petro is not bad at getting shots through.

Hockey Reference tracks the percentage of shot attempts that make it on goal. For whatever reason, they don't include it on a player's individual page, but they include it on the team page. It is the last column on the right under 'Skater Advanced Statsitics':

2017-18 St. Louis Blues Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Petro was 3rd among Blues D men in percentage of attempts to make it on goal this year. He was 1st among Blues D in 15/16 and 16/17. This is an eye test narrative that I don't think has ever been true, but certainly hasn't been true for years at this point if it was true earlier in his career.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Where are you getting these numbers? They are staggeringly off. Tarasenko had 306 shots this year, 286 in 16/17 and 292 in 15/16. Petro had 216 shots this year and 181/182 in the 2 prior years. The iFF is also way off, as only 299 shot attempts for a volume shooter like Tarasenko would be incredibly low. Finally, getting 70% or more of your shot attempts on net would be absurdly high. Very few guys can do that with consistency.

However, I agree with your point that Petro is not bad at getting shots through.

Hockey Reference tracks the percentage of shot attempts that make it on goal. For whatever reason, they don't include it on a player's individual page, but they include it on the team page. It is the last column on the right under 'Skater Advanced Statsitics':

2017-18 St. Louis Blues Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Petro was 3rd among Blues D men in percentage of attempts to make it on goal this year. He was 1st among Blues D in 15/16 and 16/17. This is an eye test narrative that I don't think has ever been true, but certainly hasn't been true for years at this point if it was true earlier in his career.

I think he used the "5v5" numbers from Corsica instead of the "any" numbers.

One would think it would be harder to get a shot on goal at ES than on the PP, but it probably shouldn't be assumed.

 

[Brian39]

I think he used the "5v5" numbers from Corsica instead of the "any" numbers.

One would think it would be harder to get a shot on goal at ES than on the PP, but it probably shouldn't be assumed.

I'm dumb. Fenwick doesn't include blocked shots, which would explain the lower attempt totals and doesn't accurately reflect how good a guy is at getting shots through. Using Fenwick for this instead of Corsi boosts that 'shots through' percentage and would favor guys who blindly shoot into shot blockers instead of trying to get a shot around the blocker but potentially missing wide. I'd argue that missing wide is better than having a shot blocked as it still allows for a potential deflection or play off the boards.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I'm dumb. Fenwick doesn't include blocked shots, which would explain the lower attempt totals and doesn't accurately reflect how good a guy is at getting shots through. Using Fenwick for this instead of Corsi boosts that 'shots through' percentage and would favor guys who blindly shoot into shot blockers instead of trying to get a shot around the blocker but potentially missing wide. I'd argue that missing wide is better than having a shot blocked as it still allows for a potential deflection or play off the boards.

There are a lot of blocked shots that bounce into areas that lead to potential scoring opportunities as well, but I think we're digressing from the original point a bit.

You can't really tell if a shot that was blocked was going to hit the net or go wide, so in a discussion about how often guys are hitting the net with their shots (i.e. a discussion of their accuracy), it makes sense to only count the ones that actually make it through.

 

[bluesXwinXtheXcup]

Milano is in, so I'm guessing Thompson is sitting for this one. Till next game, then.

Yeah I trying to watch for him too lol. He was like a fart in the wind out there.

 

[Majorityof1]

Where are you getting these numbers? They are staggeringly off. Tarasenko had 306 shots this year, 286 in 16/17 and 292 in 15/16. Petro had 216 shots this year and 181/182 in the 2 prior years. The iFF is also way off, as only 299 shot attempts for a volume shooter like Tarasenko would be incredibly low. Finally, getting 70% or more of your shot attempts on net would be absurdly high. Very few guys can do that with consistency.

However, I agree with your point that Petro is not bad at getting shots through.

Hockey Reference tracks the percentage of shot attempts that make it on goal. For whatever reason, they don't include it on a player's individual page, but they include it on the team page. It is the last column on the right under 'Skater Advanced Statsitics':

2017-18 St. Louis Blues Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Petro was 3rd among Blues D men in percentage of attempts to make it on goal this year. He was 1st among Blues D in 15/16 and 16/17. This is an eye test narrative that I don't think has ever been true, but certainly hasn't been true for years at this point if it was true earlier in his career.

Natural stat trick. Those were 5v5 #s. Not for any particular reason, but mainly because I forgot to change it to all situations. I've run a similar analysis before with all situations on Petro, and he is above 50% still. Its a narrative I'm frankly sick of running, so I rushed. I was almost too lazy to change it from playoffs to regular season except no blues showed up this year.

Here are this years all-situation #s:

Tarasenko - 306/436 = 70.2%
Pietrangelo - 216/295 = 73.2%
Steen - 168/216 = 77.8%

The Hockey-reference page probably includes blocked shots, which I excluded. At least I came up with the same numbers when I ran % = (shots/Corsi)* 100% as opposed to what I listed which was % = (shots/Fenwick)*100%. That number is of course lower since the denominator is bigger by definition. I purposefully used Fenwick because the poster I was refuting made no mention of blocked shots, purely, "they miss more then they hit the net". I took the top 200 most shots for the past year and ran it with both SOG/iFF and SOG/iCF. The three Blues players were not out of line with either. Most of the high volume shooters run around 50% for the Corsi #, with 60% being high end and a very few outliers being a bit higher. If anything, based on the relative placement on the 2 charts, I'd say Blues players have more trouble with having shots blocked than missing the net, relative to other high volume shooters. And that is very much evident from watching our PP.

TLDR: what @EastonBlues22 said much more succinctly and intelligently above while I was typing all that nonsense..

 

[Brian39]

Natural stat trick. Those were 5v5 #s. Not for any particular reason, but mainly because I forgot to change it to all situations. I've run a similar analysis before with all situations on Petro, and he is above 50% still. Its a narrative I'm frankly sick of running, so I rushed. I was almost too lazy to change it from playoffs to regular season except no blues showed up this year.

Here are this years all-situation #s:

Tarasenko - 306/436 = 70.2%
Pietrangelo - 216/295 = 73.2%
Steen - 168/216 = 77.8%

The Hockey-reference page probably includes blocked shots, which I excluded. At least I came up with the same numbers when I ran % = (shots/Corsi)* 100% as opposed to what I listed which was % = (shots/Fenwick)*100%. That number is of course lower since the denominator is bigger by definition. I purposefully used Fenwick because he made no indication of blocked shots, purely, "they miss more then they hit the net". I took the top 200 most shots for the past year and ran it with both SOG/iFF and SOG/iCF. The three Blues players were not out of line with either. Most of the high volume shooters run around 50% for the Corsi #, with 60% being high end and a very few outliers being a bit higher. If anything, based on the relative placement on the 2 charts, I'd say Blues players have more trouble with having shots blocked than missing the net, relative to other high volume shooters. And that is very much evident from watching our PP.

TLDR: what @EastonBlues22 said much more succinctly and intelligently above while I was typing all that nonsense..

We can disagree about whether blocked shots should or shouldn't be considered, but the takeaway is that the narrative around Petro's ability to get pucks on net is just objectively not true. Regardless of which denominator is used, Petro's percentage is very good. He is not bad at hitting the net and we both wish people would stop parroting that incorrect assessment of his game.

 

[Majorityof1]

We can disagree about whether blocked shots should or shouldn't be considered, but the takeaway is that the narrative around Petro's ability to get pucks on net is just objectively not true. Regardless of which denominator is used, Petro's percentage is very good. He is not bad at hitting the net and we both wish people would stop parroting that incorrect assessment of his game.

I actually think both have their uses. Like everything, the more stats you have, the better picture you get. If a player is 5th in the league in (SoG/iFF) but 100th in (SoG/iCF) than they have an issue with shots getting blocked even though 100th in the league in shots thru % isn't objectively bad. Same if things are flipped. As I said, I used Fenwick due to the particular language of the poster (and to be honest, it was laziness too; since that # was clearly above 50%, I didn't have to list all the comparables to show where they ranked).

But I agree with you whole-heartedly on the last 2 sentences.

 

[EastonBlues22]

According to this LINK, Tage played 2:40 seconds against Germany...lowest total for anyone in the game.

 

[Blueston]

I would say right now, the floor for Thompson is higher than Thomas/Kyrou/Kostin only because he has actually logged NHL games. Once those guys hit the ice, that measurement vanishes. Thompson at best will be a top 6. Those other three should be a top sixer and possibly a top liner in their careers based off of their skills and intelligence. I'd be happy if Thompson would be a very productive third liner to give the Blues something they have always needed, a third line that can score.

Until he proves that he can be a good NHLer, I don't think I agree that playing some games means he has higher floor. Anyone can be put out there and play poorly and are thus an NHLer.