Speculation: Summer 2018 off season roster discussion

[LadyStanley]

JT leaving NYI getting more remote after Lou joined. (per pundits)

FWIW.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I dunno. He scored at what would be something like a 45-goal pace over a full season. I'm not sure he's capable of sustaining that even if he could stay healthy. I think he was highly motivated playing for a contract, and being on a good team for once, and put together the best stretch of his career. Hard to expect him to repeat that imo. Of course if he actually does end up getting to play with Tavares anything is possible but this contract would appear to foreclose the possibility of that one.

He had 13 goals in 26 games as a Shark, regular season and playoffs. I’m expecting him to finish closer to 30-35 goals than the 41 he was on pace for but there’s no question that he’s a straight up good player.

 

[Maladroit]

He had 13 goals in 26 games as a Shark, regular season and playoffs. I’m expecting him to finish closer to 30-35 goals than the 41 he was on pace for but there’s no question that he’s a straight up good player.

True, but this contract says to me they purely look at those 15 or so regular season games after the trade and before the hand injury as "the real Evander Kane" and are expecting him to play like that for at least the next few seasons. That seems like a really silly bet but hopefully they're right.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

They did not expose Theodore and would have never had to because he was exempt from the expansion draft. They voluntarily gave up Theodore so that Vegas would select Clayton Stoner instead of Manson or Vatanen. I disagree that Theodore, given his age and rarer abilities, is more valuable than Manson but that's besides the point: they could and should have been able to keep both Manson and Theodore if they wanted to. If they'd bought out Bieksa and protected Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Rakell, Fowler, Lindholm, Manson and Vatanen (or if they didn't want to buy out NMC-equipped Bieksa, they could have protected him and traded Vatanen instead which they eventually did anyway) Vegas would have just taken Silfverberg. Again, sucks to lose a guy like Silfverberg for nothing, but they had to lose someone. That "someone" becoming a 21-year-old puck moving stud who was exempt from the expansion draft is a colossal failure.

I disagree with the idea that Theodore has rarer abilities compared to Manson. I don't see any evidence for that. One needs to remember that Anaheim is a budget team. Regardless of Theodore's status to which I was inaccurate with, they were going to lose Vatanen or Manson who were proven contributors then on good contracts. So given that they were going to lose a good valuable defenseman regardless of what they did, making a deal to have Vegas take a salary that was nowhere close to worthwhile was making the best of a bad situation for a budget team. A budget team buying out someone like Bieksa when it would offer zero cap space and little salary savings. But if they tried that method and traded Vatanen before the expansion, they wouldn't have been able to land Henrique. And losing Silfverberg isn't exactly a good thing. For the Ducks' situation, losing Theodore to have Vegas take Stoner is better than the options provided. In any instance, Vegas was getting a valuable contributor from Anaheim no matter what. Theodore is not some stud. He's a solid d-man with potential.

 

[Maladroit]

I disagree with the idea that Theodore has rarer abilities compared to Manson. I don't see any evidence for that. One needs to remember that Anaheim is a budget team. Regardless of Theodore's status to which I was inaccurate with, they were going to lose Vatanen or Manson who were proven contributors then on good contracts. So given that they were going to lose a good valuable defenseman regardless of what they did, making a deal to have Vegas take a salary that was nowhere close to worthwhile was making the best of a bad situation for a budget team. A budget team buying out someone like Bieksa when it would offer zero cap space and little salary savings. But if they tried that method and traded Vatanen before the expansion, they wouldn't have been able to land Henrique. And losing Silfverberg isn't exactly a good thing. For the Ducks' situation, losing Theodore to have Vegas take Stoner is better than the options provided. In any instance, Vegas was getting a valuable contributor from Anaheim no matter what. Theodore is not some stud. He's a solid d-man with potential.

Theodore is absolutely a stud. He's a 22-year-old defenseman quarterbacking the top unit power play of a team headed to the Stanley Cup Final. He was over a point-per-game scorer in the AHL earlier in the season and was very productive in the NHL despite being attached at the hip to Deryk Engelland, one of the league's worst players, all year long. I don't know how you can watch this guy and not realize he's the kind of defenseman every NHL team lusts after these days. Manson is very good too in his own way but he's far more replaceable and benefits heavily from playing with Hampus Lindholm - there are a number of players Anaheim could plug into that role and get similar performance from. Furthermore, Theodore vs. Manson is a false choice because they could have easily kept both and simply given up Silfverberg, which is far preferable to losing either defenseman.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Theodore is absolutely a stud. He's a 22-year-old defenseman quarterbacking the top unit power play of a team headed to the Stanley Cup Final. He was over a point-per-game scorer in the AHL earlier in the season and was very productive in the NHL despite being attached at the hip to Deryk Engelland, one of the league's worst players, all year long. I don't know how you can watch this guy and not realize he's the kind of defenseman every NHL team lusts after these days. Manson is very good too in his own way but he's far more replaceable and benefits heavily from playing with Hampus Lindholm - there are a number of players Anaheim could plug into that role and get similar performance from. Furthermore, Theodore vs. Manson is a false choice because they could have easily kept both and simply given up Silfverberg, which is far preferable to losing either defenseman.

I agree with your general stance on this argument but Manson is a special player. He scored 36 ESP this year and is a top shutdown defenseman and is right handed. Add his physicality and fighting ability and you’re looking at somebody that a lot of teams covet. I don’t know that he’s more valuable than Shea Theodore, but he’s certainly very valuable.

 

[Maladroit]

I agree with your general stance on this argument but Manson is a special player. He scored 36 ESP this year and is a top shutdown defenseman and is right handed. Add his physicality and fighting ability and you’re looking at somebody that a lot of teams covet. I don’t know that he’s more valuable than Shea Theodore, but he’s certainly very valuable.

Right, I'm not saying Manson isn't a very good player but he's five years older than Theodore and unquestionably benefits from playing with one of the best defensemen in the league in Hampus Lindholm. Anyway, Manson vs. Theodore is largely academic because the Ducks very easily could and should have kept both of them while losing Jakob Silfverberg or Andrew Cogliano instead. It's just one example of how GMs screwed up this time last year, and certainly not the most egregious one.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Right, I'm not saying Manson isn't a very good player but he's five years older than Theodore and unquestionably benefits from playing with one of the best defensemen in the league in Hampus Lindholm. Anyway, Manson vs. Theodore is largely academic because the Ducks very easily could and should have kept both of them while losing Jakob Silfverberg or Andrew Cogliano instead. It's just one example of how GMs screwed up this time last year, and certainly not the most egregious one.

If they really could have just lost Silfverberg, then you are totally right. But you have to understand that an RHD who punches people in the face will always be a hot commodity in the NHL and Manson becomes such a hotter commodity when you consider Manson is actually a fantastic defenseman. And, similar to Braun, I think Lindholm benefits from Manson as well, even if Manson is the 2nd best guy on that pairing. I would love to bring Manson to San Jose.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Theodore is absolutely a stud. He's a 22-year-old defenseman quarterbacking the top unit power play of a team headed to the Stanley Cup Final. He was over a point-per-game scorer in the AHL earlier in the season and was very productive in the NHL despite being attached at the hip to Deryk Engelland, one of the league's worst players, all year long. I don't know how you can watch this guy and not realize he's the kind of defenseman every NHL team lusts after these days. Manson is very good too in his own way but he's far more replaceable and benefits heavily from playing with Hampus Lindholm - there are a number of players Anaheim could plug into that role and get similar performance from. Furthermore, Theodore vs. Manson is a false choice because they could have easily kept both and simply given up Silfverberg, which is far preferable to losing either defenseman.

If Theodore is a stud then by any objective measure so is Manson as he is a much bigger force at even strength than Theodore is. Theodore is the kind of d-man that everyone wants but so is Manson. Being a top guy defensively with the ability to score as much as he did at even strength is not any more replaceable than what Theodore has brought to Vegas so far. Manson is a top guy at even strength. Theodore right now is a 2nd pair guy at evens and is dwarfed defensively by Manson while having similar overall production without the benefit of the top power play. That and Theodore's role on that power play is not as integral as you seem to believe. He works and works well but he's not some dynamo from the point. It's not like he's Burns or Karlsson. He's a solid player with solid skills that compliments the other skills that are on that power play. A power play that is solid but nothing special.

 

[Maladroit]

If Theodore is a stud then by any objective measure so is Manson as he is a much bigger force at even strength than Theodore is. Theodore is the kind of d-man that everyone wants but so is Manson. Being a top guy defensively with the ability to score as much as he did at even strength is not any more replaceable than what Theodore has brought to Vegas so far. Manson is a top guy at even strength. Theodore right now is a 2nd pair guy at evens and is dwarfed defensively by Manson while having similar overall production without the benefit of the top power play. That and Theodore's role on that power play is not as integral as you seem to believe. He works and works well but he's not some dynamo from the point. It's not like he's Burns or Karlsson. He's a solid player with solid skills that compliments the other skills that are on that power play. A power play that is solid but nothing special.

Theodore's most frequent partner this season was Deryk Engelland, quite literally one of the worst players in the NHL. Like probably one of the ten worst players in the league. Manson's was Hampus Lindholm, probably one of the ten best defensemen in the league. To ignore that massive difference in quality of teammates when judging their even strength performance is to miss a huge part of the picture for these two players. Also Theodore is still only 22 and stands to improve for at least the next three seasons. With Manson what you see is what you get: a very good top-four defenseman and an excellent complement to his elite partner. Anyway this discussion is completely besides the point. Anaheim could and should have kept both players.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Theodore's most frequent partner this season was Deryk Engelland, quite literally one of the worst players in the NHL. Like probably one of the ten worst players in the league. Manson's was Hampus Lindholm, probably one of the ten best defensemen in the league. To ignore that massive difference in quality of teammates when judging their even strength performance is to miss a huge part of the picture for these two players. Also Theodore is still only 22 and stands to improve for at least the next three seasons. With Manson what you see is what you get: a very good top-four defenseman and an excellent complement to his elite partner. Anyway this discussion is completely besides the point. Anaheim could and should have kept both players.

You exaggerate how much of an impact the partners make on how well the individual produces and you don't have the correct comparison point when you discuss Manson. Manson is not merely some top four defenseman. He's a top pairing d-man. He's not a second pairing guy. That's Theodore. Theodore away from Engelland does well in advantageous situations. Other than Colin Miller, another good offensive d-man, he gets the most offensive zone starts whereas Engelland gets the 2nd least among the regulars. Manson getting the least amount of offensive zone starts among Ducks regular d-men with the production he gets is significantly more impressive than what Theodore is doing so far. Theodore is significantly more sheltered at evens than Manson and produces less. And if they could've kept both, they would've lost Vatanen or Silfverberg. That kind of choice is a matter of preference and there is no real objectively correct choice for their situation.

 

[Maladroit]

You exaggerate how much of an impact the partners make on how well the individual produces and you don't have the correct comparison point when you discuss Manson. Manson is not merely some top four defenseman. He's a top pairing d-man. He's not a second pairing guy. That's Theodore. Theodore away from Engelland does well in advantageous situations. Other than Colin Miller, another good offensive d-man, he gets the most offensive zone starts whereas Engelland gets the 2nd least among the regulars. Manson getting the least amount of offensive zone starts among Ducks regular d-men with the production he gets is significantly more impressive than what Theodore is doing so far. Theodore is significantly more sheltered at evens than Manson and produces less. And if they could've kept both, they would've lost Vatanen or Silfverberg. That kind of choice is a matter of preference and there is no real objectively correct choice for their situation.

Yes, of course they would have lost somebody because those were the rules. Losing Silfverberg sucks but he's eminently replaceable. Manson matched his career production in one season thanks to an extremely favorable on-ice shooting percentage. Anaheim scored on nearly 10% of their shots with Manson on the ice at even strength. If you watch Manson play it's very obvious that shooting percentage has absolutely nothing to do with him. He's simply not a guy who drives offense in any capacity, he benefited from playing behind some very talented forwards who got some very fortunate shooting luck this season and he won't be able to repeat that kind of point total ever again. Which is perfectly fine, his value isn't as an offensive catalyst. Theodore's is, and that type of talent is much harder to find.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Yes, of course they would have lost somebody because those were the rules. Losing Silfverberg sucks but he's eminently replaceable. Manson matched his career production in one season thanks to an extremely favorable on-ice shooting percentage. Anaheim scored on nearly 10% of their shots with Manson on the ice at even strength. If you watch Manson play it's very obvious that shooting percentage has absolutely nothing to do with him. He's simply not a guy who drives offense in any capacity, he benefited from playing behind some very talented forwards who got some very fortunate shooting luck this season and he won't be able to repeat that kind of point total ever again. Which is perfectly fine, his value isn't as an offensive catalyst. Theodore's is, and that type of talent is much harder to find.

Looking at the Ducks organization, it's easier to replace Theodore than it is to replace Silfverberg. If you're going to point out on-ice shooting percentage as some sort of detriment yet ignore that Lindholm's is right there with him yet you heap all this praise on him then you're letting bias influence your assessments here. Manson certainly doesn't drive offense like Theodore does but his defensive capability is among the best in the league. Theodore's ability to drive offense isn't exactly among the best league wide either and it likely never will be. Manson is one of the best shutdown d-men in the league right now. At this point in this conversation, you completely ignore that reality and make it seem easy to replace. It isn't at that level. Finding competent defensive defensemen is easy at the 2nd and 3rd pair levels. Finding top level shut down d-men is no easier to find than that of Theodore's skills.

 

[Maladroit]

Looking at the Ducks organization, it's easier to replace Theodore than it is to replace Silfverberg. If you're going to point out on-ice shooting percentage as some sort of detriment yet ignore that Lindholm's is right there with him yet you heap all this praise on him then you're letting bias influence your assessments here. Manson certainly doesn't drive offense like Theodore does but his defensive capability is among the best in the league. Theodore's ability to drive offense isn't exactly among the best league wide either and it likely never will be. Manson is one of the best shutdown d-men in the league right now. At this point in this conversation, you completely ignore that reality and make it seem easy to replace. It isn't at that level. Finding competent defensive defensemen is easy at the 2nd and 3rd pair levels. Finding top level shut down d-men is no easier to find than that of Theodore's skills.

You keep defaulting to this Theodore vs. Manson argument that isn't relevant to the discussion at all. They should have kept both players and lost Silfverberg (or Cogliano), end of story. It was a screw-up to lose either Theodore or Manson to Vegas. Yes the Ducks have another young talented puck-moving defenseman in Brandon Montour but A) there's nothing wrong with having two players like that B) that would have given them even more flexibility to move Vatanen, Fowler, or both, for higher-end forwards than Jakob Silfverberg. They could have even traded Theodore to some other team to take Stoner's contract off their hands *plus* get another good asset in return. Their decisions leading up to the expansion draft simply did not maximize the value of their roster. They're not the only ones though, and there were certainly a handful of teams that fared even worse than Anaheim.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You keep defaulting to this Theodore vs. Manson argument that isn't relevant to the discussion at all. They should have kept both players and lost Silfverberg (or Cogliano), end of story. It was a screw-up to lose either Theodore or Manson to Vegas. Yes the Ducks have another young talented puck-moving defenseman in Brandon Montour but A) there's nothing wrong with having two players like that B) that would have given them even more flexibility to move Vatanen, Fowler, or both, for higher-end forwards than Jakob Silfverberg. They could have even traded Theodore to some other team to take Stoner's contract off their hands *plus* get another good asset in return. Their decisions leading up to the expansion draft simply did not maximize the value of their roster. They're not the only ones though, and there were certainly a handful of teams that fared even worse than Anaheim.

It isn't relevant? Of course it is. It comes down to Theodore vs. Manson because there really isn't another option to choose from. In order to protect both, one of Vatanen, Lindholm, or Fowler would need to be exposed and you're still handing Vegas a very good defenseman.

 

[Maladroit]

It isn't relevant? Of course it is. It comes down to Theodore vs. Manson because there really isn't another option to choose from. In order to protect both, one of Vatanen, Lindholm, or Fowler would need to be exposed and you're still handing Vegas a very good defenseman.

Not true. They could have bought out Bieksa and protected Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Rakell, Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen and Manson. Or simply traded Vatanen beforehand, which they eventually ended up doing anyway, if they were financially incapable of buying out Bieksa. Or begged Bieksa to waive his NMC with the knowledge that Vegas would almost certainly select Silfverberg over him, perhaps coupling that with a 2nd round pick traded to Vegas to ensure they took Silfverberg over Bieksa to convince Bieksa's camp to waive.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Not true. They could have bought out Bieksa and protected Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Rakell, Fowler, Lindholm, Vatanen and Manson. Or simply traded Vatanen beforehand, which they eventually ended up doing anyway, if they were financially incapable of buying out Bieksa.

So here's how that plays out...buying out Bieksa affords them no cap savings while still losing Silvferberg or Cogliano. In either instance, Vegas is getting a useful 2nd line caliber player. Seeing as how Anaheim is a budget team, thinking they'd do that is unrealistic. Trading Vatanen for Henrique beforehand leaves you in the situation where you either protect Henrique in the seven forwards arrangement which leaves one of Lindholm, Fowler, or Manson exposed or you protect all four d-men and then exposed the newly acquired Henrique and probably lose him for nothing. Both situations are unrealistic and still involves giving Vegas a very useful player and is a matter of preference which one it would be. If the Ducks had the capability of trading someone like Vatanen somewhere for exempt players, they probably would have but there was a reason why a lot of those trades just didn't happen.

 

[Maladroit]

So here's how that plays out...buying out Bieksa affords them no cap savings while still losing Silvferberg or Cogliano. In either instance, Vegas is getting a useful 2nd line caliber player. Seeing as how Anaheim is a budget team, thinking they'd do that is unrealistic. Trading Vatanen for Henrique beforehand leaves you in the situation where you either protect Henrique in the seven forwards arrangement which leaves one of Lindholm, Fowler, or Manson exposed or you protect all four d-men and then exposed the newly acquired Henrique and probably lose him for nothing. Both situations are unrealistic and still involves giving Vegas a very useful player and is a matter of preference which one it would be. If the Ducks had the capability of trading someone like Vatanen somewhere for exempt players, they probably would have but there was a reason why a lot of those trades just didn't happen.

Losing a second liner to Vegas is a lot easier to stomach than losing a top-pairing defenseman in Manson or a 21-year-old future top-pairing defenseman in Theodore. You go to Bieksa's representation and ask him to waive his no-movement clause knowing that Silfverberg is also being exposed and it's exceedingly unlikely Vegas would choose Bieksa over Silfverberg. Maybe Bob Murray did this and Bieksa's representation told him to shove it, but it seems more likely to me that he simultaneously overvalued Silfverberg and undervalued Theodore and was therefore fine losing the latter to keep the former.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Losing a second liner to Vegas is a lot easier to stomach than losing a top-pairing defenseman in Manson or a 21-year-old future top-pairing defenseman in Theodore. You go to Bieksa's representation and ask him to waive his no-movement clause knowing that Silfverberg is also being exposed and it's exceedingly unlikely Vegas would choose Bieksa over Silfverberg. Maybe Bob Murray did this and Bieksa's representation told him to shove it, but it seems more likely to me that he simultaneously overvalued Silfverberg and undervalued Theodore and was therefore fine losing the latter to keep the former.

For Anaheim, no it really isn't easier. As for the Bieksa side of things, I sincerely doubt that that avenue wasn't pursued or settled in some manner a long time ago like when he signed. Bieksa wouldn't have waived it to even risk it and the only recourse for Anaheim would be to buy him out. They weren't going to do that either.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Let's not forget that while Shea Theodore was considered a solid prospect, he was more project than established top talent. Similar to a young Chrisitan Ehrhoff, Jason Demers, or Justin Braun. He's ironed out many of the defensive quirks in his game in Vegas.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Let's not forget that while Shea Theodore was considered a solid prospect, he was more project than established top talent. Similar to a young Chrisitan Ehrhoff, Jason Demers, or Justin Braun. He's ironed out many of the defensive quirks in his game in Vegas.

You do Theodore a disservice to say he was only a “solid prospect”. He was very highly regarded.

 

[hockeyball]

I mean, they're a successful team in their first season. Isn't every Knights fan basically a bandwagoner?

Well, sure, but I guarantee you 80% of these people never watched a hockey game before in their life, so they are not just GK band-wagoners, they are hockey band-wagoners. I'm glad for them they are doing so well, but at the same time, I don't feel like they earned it. They didn't draft, or develop, any of their players. They cherry picked them from other teams, gave them a good coach, and wa-la. It feels cheap to me, and artificial.

 

[Maladroit]

Let's not forget that while Shea Theodore was considered a solid prospect, he was more project than established top talent. Similar to a young Chrisitan Ehrhoff, Jason Demers, or Justin Braun. He's ironed out many of the defensive quirks in his game in Vegas.

Theodore scored 37 points in 50 AHL games as a 20-year-old defenseman. That is an exceptionally rare feat. Highly touted forwards often don't score that much as 20-year-olds in the AHL. At the same age, Demers scored 33 points in 78 AHL games, Ehrhoff scored 27 points in 48 German league games and Braun scored 23 points in 39 NCAA games. None of them were even comparable statistically to Theodore. Regardless of how anyone considered Theodore's defensive play, those numbers (especially in combination with his ridiculous WHL point totals) are objective evidence that he was always a very good bet to be an impact NHL defenseman.

 

[Groo]

Theodore's most frequent partner this season was Deryk Engelland, quite literally one of the worst players in the NHL. Like probably one of the ten worst players in the league. Manson's was Hampus Lindholm, probably one of the ten best defensemen in the league. To ignore that massive difference in quality of teammates when judging their even strength performance is to miss a huge part of the picture for these two players. Also Theodore is still only 22 and stands to improve for at least the next three seasons. With Manson what you see is what you get: a very good top-four defenseman and an excellent complement to his elite partner. Anyway this discussion is completely besides the point. Anaheim could and should have kept both players.

Engelland played very well this season for the Knights

 

[Groo]

Well, sure, but I guarantee you 80% of these people never watched a hockey game before in their life, so they are not just GK band-wagoners, they are hockey band-wagoners. I'm glad for them they are doing so well, but at the same time, I don't feel like they earned it. They didn't draft, or develop, any of their players. They cherry picked them from other teams, gave them a good coach, and wa-la. It feels cheap to me, and artificial.

Oh dear lord!