Steblick's 2006 Draft Top 70+ Picks

[Kick Save]

This is just my opinion obviously and I'm sure steblick can give you a more detailed answer but after having Burke as our GM for a number of years I have a feeling that he may be looking at Little if he's there or Clutterbuck who seems to be a Brian Burke player. He really likes safe picks and rarely takes huge leaps of faith with his higher round picks.

Thanks, Jovofan. Steblick seems to rate Little lower than most sources I've seen. It would be nice if he were still around when the Ducks pick. I don't know a lot about Clutterbuck---actually, living in Southern California---I seldom get to see any of these guys. If he's a "character" guy, though, that sounds like Burke's type of player.

 

[Hiishawk]

A few replies.

Sorry, YOUNG Guns. I don't know what I was thinking when I wrote that.

Frolik is ranked where I would place him if I hadn't heard the hype or knew of his rating when he was a 15-16 year old- in other words an honest assessment. His upward curve is questionable but in terms of his actual play I see difficulties in meshing with his teammates. He overhandles the puck and steers himself into nowheresville. He looks good on the rush and comes back with energy but actually seems to achieve or produce very little (unlike Tlusty).

I really like Wishart. I saw him several times in the WHL and he had that stud DF quality about him. I think he was just too cool and passive at the U18s.

As for individual teams, I have no idea who they will choose. EVERY NHL team will have a few guys in line for that first pick who the scouting agencies have rated #100 or thereabouts. So (and this is purely an example) Montreal could well have, say, Peter Ratchuk rated #12 overall and he'll be their man when the draft comes. That may seem wild if you look only at the rating agencies but NHL teams will definitely have wild cards like this. What's more, if you were with the Montral scouts, having Ratchuk (again, only an example) at #12 in your ratings would start to seem normal... and Redline, McKeens, ISS and Young Guns would look strange.

I never roll my eyes at another scout's, or a knowledgeable fan's or writer's, ratings even though I may disagree. After all, it's hardly a science. Sharkie saw some different games with Williams than I did and that's valid. That's why every NHL has several scouts criss-crossing- so they can get a more well-rounded picture of a player. I freely admit that some of my viewings and opinions may not be well-rounded, although I try to solicit the thoughts of others on players I don't know well (i.e., Swedish fans on Ahnelov in this thread). What I do roll my eyes at is the tendency for some less knowledgeable fans to think there is something "wrong" with a ranking because it differs from an existing ranking made elsewhere, as though these other rankings were considered biblical. Of course, although fans are not really in a position to rank players they have never seen but it's always good to hear what knowledgeable fans have to say on players who they do see a lot.

 

[Hiishawk]

I should add that while many might think my rankings of Emmerton, Williams, Frolik, Little are very low I can guarantee you that some NHL teams will not even have some (or all) of these players in their top 75 (or overall draft list). After all, the thinking is- if you believe the player will not play in the NHL beyond a handful of games there is absolutely no reason to draft him.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

steblick, of the top four players that are in most lists, Johnson, Kessel, Towes and Staal, which do you think would fit the Pens the best? Amd which of the three centers would convert best to wing on the Pens, as obviously none would be used as a center?

 

[X-SHARKIE]

I should add that while many might think my rankings of Emmerton, Williams, Frolik, Little are very low I can guarantee you that some NHL teams will not even have some (or all) of these players in their top 75 (or overall draft list). After all, the thinking is- if you believe the player will not play in the NHL beyond a handful of games there is absolutely no reason to draft him.

I agree with Emmerton, I just don't see it. I can't see him being an impact player in the NHL.

 

[rt]

I agree with Emmerton, I just don't see it. I can't see him being an impact player in the NHL.

How about Hughes and Stewart?

 

[rt]

How about Hughes and Stewart?

Same to you Steblick.

 

[MaV]

It was most interesting to see your ranking of Seppänen: so the CSB ranking was based on something! You said he stood out in '87 turnaments, what are you referring here? Bad Tölz, St. Petersburg? I didn't know he actaully was there. Back home he has certainly improved a lot during the season, but the question is how much you should expect a player to get better in a year of developement. Apparently not nearly that much.

Also about Juutilainen's NCAA entry, I told people "it must be true since steblick says so too". Can I keep doing that happily? That's the word around the business?

For those, who say Nyholm didn't play that good overall game in the tournament, I can say from what (little) I saw that you seem to know a little something about hockey. Not the kind of performance that got me excited with Viking Cup and previous games in Finland. And this was now against the opponents he is going to be measured against in the summers' draft. We'll see what happens.

 

[katodelder]

steblick, of the top four players that are in most lists, Johnson, Kessel, Towes and Staal, which do you think would fit the Pens the best? Amd which of the three centers would convert best to wing on the Pens, as obviously none would be used as a center?

Wouldn't Kessel be the best option at #2 (assuming the Blues take Johnson #1?). I mean, he's such a good finisher... wouldn't pairing him up with great playmakers like Crosby or Malkin be a match made in heaven? Or would Kessel's personality clash with Crosby's?

What about Backstrom at #2?

 

[usiel]

Wouldn't Kessel be the best option at #2 (assuming the Blues take Johnson #1?). I mean, he's such a good finisher... wouldn't pairing him up with great playmakers like Crosby or Malkin be a match made in heaven? Or would Kessel's personality clash with Crosby's?

What about Backstrom at #2?

As far as the pens go, as I would assume as for any NHL club, their specific 'board' would be based on ranking how good they believe they will be as a pro. Imagine if if the Pens draft Staal and the hue and cry on these boards from all the armchair GMs and the Staal developes into a monster. I mean that is a good prob to have not a bad one. I like kessel but he does seem to my impression a boom or bust gambler type pick. And hypothetically imagine if they do draft Staal and he is a monster and there is a log jam at the center position...well hell you could trade someone and get a monster return in an area of need. I know this board is typically 'everyone hoards their prospects' but they are assets and could be traded for a better return. Unbiased opinion...(as a caps fan who is happy with several prospects that no matter what will be available at #4) is that Toews might be a good fit. He could be a great center but he could absolutely play RW. Crosby as shown that he can goal score and distribute the puck because of his great hockey sense and I think Toews is somewhat similar projection in the couple of games I have seen IMO.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

As far as the pens go, as I would assume as for any NHL club, their specific 'board' would be based on ranking how good they believe they will be as a pro. Imagine if if the Pens draft Staal and the hue and cry on these boards from all the armchair GMs and the Staal developes into a monster. I mean that is a good prob to have not a bad one. I like kessel but he does seem to my impression a boom or bust gambler type pick. And hypothetically imagine if they do draft Staal and he is a monster and there is a log jam at the center position...well hell you could trade someone and get a monster return in an area of need. I know this board is typically 'everyone hoards their prospects' but they are assets and could be traded for a better return. Unbiased opinion...(as a caps fan who is happy with several prospects that no matter what will be available at #4) is that Toews might be a good fit. He could be a great center but he could absolutely play RW. Crosby as shown that he can goal score and distribute the puck because of his great hockey sense and I think Toews is somewhat similar projection in the couple of games I have seen IMO.

I really was not looking for a specific answer but serious opinions from people who have watched these three a lot. But I do have opinions as well. Some thoughts:

1) Whichever the Pens choose will be wasted if they can not be converted successfully to wing. With all due respect none of them will become tradable 'Monsters' centering the third line, which is where they will end up on the Pens, behind Crosby and Malkin, if they can not convert to wing.

2) Whoever they draft of the three (or four if you include Backtrom) will end up successful. It would take a really really bad finisher not to pot at least 30 goals on either of those two's wings. In fact whoever they draft has a huge edge on outscoring the others, not just their rookie years but every year after, just because of who is on their line feeding them. That is not the question though. The question is who would in people's opinions do best in finishing the feeds Malkin or Crosby send their way.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

What about Backstrom at #2?

Backstrom is my hopeful pick for the Pens at #2, at this point even regardless of what St. Louis does and what happens with Johnson.

I am thinking this way because Backstrom already plays a mature game, to the point where he is a first line center on an SEL playoff team. I think he projects very well into the NHL and I think he has good offensive upside as well. I think he could make a transition to wing, especially left wing if his two way game is solid like the consensus seems to be.

Kessel is such a tempting pick because of his high level of skill, but I think the smartest pick for the Pens is Backstrom. It's easy to try to swing for the home run, especially when we already have some great prospects, but I'd rather jump at the more easily projectable player.

This isn't to say I think Kessel will bust - either of them could just as easily, because they are only 18 and there are never guarantees. Whether you want to throw around the word "safe" with Backstrom or not, I like the fact that he already plays well at a very high level and I think he is worth taking second this year.

 

[burgundynblue]

I really was not looking for a specific answer but serious opinions from people who have watched these three a lot. But I do have opinions as well. Some thoughts:

1) Whichever the Pens choose will be wasted if they can not be converted successfully to wing. With all due respect none of them will become tradable 'Monsters' centering the third line, which is where they will end up on the Pens, behind Crosby and Malkin, if they can not convert to wing.

2) Whoever they draft of the three (or four if you include Backtrom) will end up successful. It would take a really really bad finisher not to pot at least 30 goals on either of those two's wings. In fact whoever they draft has a huge edge on outscoring the others, not just their rookie years but every year after, just because of who is on their line feeding them. That is not the question though. The question is who would in people's opinions do best in finishing the feeds Malkin or Crosby send their way.

Sorry to mess around, but in my humble opinion it is a no-brainer: out of these players Backstrom and Staal are projected as 2-way forwards (and both like it more at center), as is Toews to a lesser extent. Only Kessel proved to be successful at wing and he is the closest to the "sniper" definition.

 

[Seiza]

Backstrom is my hopeful pick for the Pens at #2, at this point even regardless of what St. Louis does and what happens with Johnson.

I am thinking this way because Backstrom already plays a mature game, to the point where he is a first line center on an SEL playoff team. I think he projects very well into the NHL and I think he has good offensive upside as well. I think he could make a transition to wing, especially left wing if his two way game is solid like the consensus seems to be.

Bäckström is currently playing wing on the first line with the National team in the LG hockey games. Although IMO he is better as a center (which is his natural position and his 2-way game fits the center position better) he can take a step out to play wing.

 

[Blind Gardien]

I should add that while many might think my rankings of Emmerton, Williams, Frolik, Little are very low I can guarantee you that some NHL teams will not even have some (or all) of these players in their top 75 (or overall draft list). After all, the thinking is- if you believe the player will not play in the NHL beyond a handful of games there is absolutely no reason to draft him.

100% agreed. And you could expand that way beyond Emmerton, Williams, Frolik, and Little, IMHO. Take the consensus Top-30 from CSB, ISS, Redline, McKeens or whoever, and you could probably find up to 20 of those 30 players who were left out of the top-75 on some NHL team list somewhere. That's pretty typical in any draft, and perhaps moreso for this year IMO.

Of course, it also depends a bit on what you decide to call a team's "draft list". It's not like every team just makes one list ranked #1 to #300 and that's it, that's The List. If it was that simple, you could just do the drafts by a mail-in ranking. I like the philosophy of having at least a couple of different flavours of draft list around. One which really focuses on guys you like a lot, and who you figure are likely to be available for your picks, more of a "draft map" than a list. And then maybe another more global list on the side, just to keep track of anybody who is falling much lower than you figured, but which you kinda secretly hope you never have to use. For example, Frolik or Sanguinetti might not be in my top-20, or Emmerton or Joensuu might not be in my top-50 and consequently might not be on my draft map, but if I see they're still inexplicably kicking around in the 3rd or 6th round, I have to be ready to consider factoring them in, even if they weren't in the original plan and even if I'm not really high on them as prospects.

Then the other wildcard which I don't think any of these scouting services or us armchair draft fans can really factor in are the personality/character issues. The interview and personal references side of player evaluation would carry massive weight for me in making my decisions and rankings. That, connected with all the personal networking etc that is part of the hockey world also shows up in how various team or agency lists turn out, but is totally invisible/inaccessible to us.

 

[MS]

I am curious though to find out your thoughts on Milan Lucic for the Vancouver Giants. I've seen him play in person and on TV quite a few times and he's been moving up draft boards now for a while and is having a very good playoffs for Vancouver this year. Do you see him making it into the 2nd round if his run of good play continues and how do you think he'll project to the NHL level? What do you feel are his strengths and weaknesses. I love his work ethic and think he has good offensive upside but it's hard to judge because of the role he fills on the team. As a 3rd/4th liner it's hard to get a really good feel for him since he doesn't play as much as some of the other top prospects from the WHL.

Lucic is an imposing presence and I've seen him have shifts where he has the opposition looking over their shoulders after some mammoth hits, changing the atmosphere of the game. But his foot speed and agility is a real problem. My question is- how long has he been skating and playing hockey? If he's relatively new to the game he may well improve his skating. If not, I'd say it's a big, big drawback at this point.

Just my $0.02 on Lucic, which partly echoes steblick's comment.

I don't think he has much upside. He'll be a 25 goal powerforward at the WHL level by 07-08 I'm sure, but it won't translate to pro. His upside is to be a Turner Stevenson-type 8-10 goal grinder with size who adds some secondary toughness. Hard slapshot, but not much idea how to use it at this point, and his release isn't exactly quick.

His quickness is a big problem. He needs to be powerskating his *ss off during offseasons to improve his first-step quickness and agility. Even at this level, opposing defenders step around his forechecking pretty easily much of the time. He can get going pretty good in a straight line and really crunch guys who are standing still, but as soon as his target moves and he has to adjust his track it's like hitting quicksand.

I'm pretty surprised to hear talk of him going as high as the 2nd round. I'd look at him in the 5th round or so, but any higher than that he just doesn't have the upside to justify. And it's not like he's a safe pick either, because his skating makes him a pretty substantial bust risk. Reminds me of guys like Darren McLachlan and Sean O'Connor, who were both pretty fearsome customers in the WHL and quite high draft picks, but were killed in pro because of skating deficiencies.

I'd rate Frazer McLaren of Portland ahead of Lucic as McLaren's skating is a better projection to pro IMO. Plus he has more size and outright heavyweight potential. CSS has Lucic 43 spots ahead of McLaren however. CSS has Lucic as the #13 player from the WHL and McLaren as #23 while I have Lucic at #26 and McLaren at #23.
__________

Nice job on steblick's list - the site needs more efforts like that. Pretty much nailed the WHL IMO - nearly identical to what I have with the only disagreement of note being Fiala. Nice to see someone else put Grabner in the first round.

 

[Hiishawk]

Some follow-up comments:
Bobby Hughes is a bit of a mystery for me. Whenever I saw Kingston he was injured or (I believe) suspended. I saw him live only once. He's just off this list. Yes, he was a big part of "The Kingston (06) Trio" but I still want to see some singular quality that says "NHL" to me. He's not very big, he's good on the draws, he can be abrasive and drives to the trouble areas, has decent puck skills... I suppose he looks like a 3rd rounder at this point.

I like Stewart by far as the best of the trio- I've seen him carry 220lb defencemen on his back while driving to the net from some near impossible angle. He has a better work ethic than his brother and while his skating looks a bit wonky he's reasonably quick and very very strong on his feet. A horse.

Juutelainen is listed as having commited to U. Nebraska-Omaha by various NHL information services. I'm sure the recruiting homepages would list it too.

Seppanen I saw in Vancouver and in Russia and I felt (and apparently so did CSB) that he had improved greatly on his draft year and was the most effective, consistent Finnish shutdown guy on the U20 team, ahead of captain Leinonen. But there's always a big question mark with players who went undrafted last year. How was he with IFK?

Nyholm shows flashes of elite skill but he's maddeningly inconsistent. I simply can't say "I think he'll likely play in the NHL more than not" at this point. Still, he's a top 100 guy but I'm not sure I'd draft him.

As for suitability to individual NHL teams, I just can't comment. I'm not familiar enough with each team (fans will be). When I watch draft eligible players I look for an ideal ranking, not for slotting into individual NHL lineups.

MS- Any thoughts on Jesse Dudas or Ben Wright? How about the Regina pair of Schira and Pyett.

 

[Blackshad]

Exellent list. Nice to see some real scouting and not some "i read on the prospect so i know him".

 

[MS]

MS- Any thoughts on Jesse Dudas or Ben Wright? How about the Regina pair of Schira and Pyett.

Eastern conference guys I haven't seen a lot, especially the Lethbridge guys, so any comments are from a pretty small sample size.

Only time I saw Dudas and Wright was very early in the season. Dudas was dealt to PG so I was looking forward to seeing more of him, and then he got hurt right away and missed the rest of the season. Wright was injured the only other time I saw Lethbridge play. Dudas is a big guy with a lot of raw tools - looks really comfortable moving the puck out of his zone, heavy shot from the point. I remember wondering about his backward skating and a few of his reads, but again it's only one game. Has to be one of the biggest wildcards of the draft. Wright I don't remember much of, unfortunately. I wish like hell I'd seen some of Lethbridge's playoffs, where he really lit it up. I have no idea how much that performance raised his stock - possibly quite a lot. I don't have a clue where either of those guys will go - could go anywhere from late first rounders in a thin draft down to rounds 3-4.

Pyatt is a fire hydrant - compensates for his lack of height by being really strong on his skates for a small defender. Very active guy - forces the play, good anticipation. Can get caught out of position. Good skater, although not quite as smooth as Schira IMO. Nice puck mover, plays the PP. Has a lot of jam, will mix it up and get involved physically, take a hit to make a play.

Schira is a guy you wish was two or three inches taller. Very smart player, sound decision-maker. Smooth skater with nice lateral mobility. Not quite as aggressive offensively as Pyett, but very skilled and will be a big point producer at the WHL level. But he is undersized. I'd have both him and Pyett in the 5-6 round range, but teams seem more willing to take these sort of guys higher in the draft now - Letang and Russell went quite high in the draft last year. I think I'd take Schira ahead of Pyett ... I like his hockey sense and skating a little more, and he does have an extra inch.

 

[Jovofan]

Just my $0.02 on Lucic, which partly echoes steblick's comment.

I don't think he has much upside. He'll be a 25 goal powerforward at the WHL level by 07-08 I'm sure, but it won't translate to pro. His upside is to be a Turner Stevenson-type 8-10 goal grinder with size who adds some secondary toughness. Hard slapshot, but not much idea how to use it at this point, and his release isn't exactly quick.

His quickness is a big problem. He needs to be powerskating his *ss off during offseasons to improve his first-step quickness and agility. Even at this level, opposing defenders step around his forechecking pretty easily much of the time. He can get going pretty good in a straight line and really crunch guys who are standing still, but as soon as his target moves and he has to adjust his track it's like hitting quicksand.

I'm pretty surprised to hear talk of him going as high as the 2nd round. I'd look at him in the 5th round or so, but any higher than that he just doesn't have the upside to justify. And it's not like he's a safe pick either, because his skating makes him a pretty substantial bust risk. Reminds me of guys like Darren McLachlan and Sean O'Connor, who were both pretty fearsome customers in the WHL and quite high draft picks, but were killed in pro because of skating deficiencies.

I'd rate Frazer McLaren of Portland ahead of Lucic as McLaren's skating is a better projection to pro IMO. Plus he has more size and outright heavyweight potential. CSS has Lucic 43 spots ahead of McLaren however. CSS has Lucic as the #13 player from the WHL and McLaren as #23 while I have Lucic at #26 and McLaren at #23.

Great rundown man, I appreciate it. I watched McLaren play a couple times as well and I liked what I saw of him too. Lucic to me seems like an average prospect but I've been hearing a lot lately of him being a possible 2nd round selection and I was wondering if people were seeing things that I wasn't, hence my question. I think if my team had a chance to take him in the 4th round though I'd do it, but I feel 2nd round is a reach. If he can turn into another Turner Stevenson and fill a character role for a team I wouldn't have much of a problem with it.

The one Vancouver guy who I'm very interested in watching to progress of is Repik. That goal he scored in the Everett series was phenominal.

 

[The Old Master]

steblick, of the top four players that are in most lists, Johnson, Kessel, Towes and Staal, which do you think would fit the Pens the best? Amd which of the three centers would convert best to wing on the Pens, as obviously none would be used as a center?

you and i seem to agree on kessel, as being the best fit for the pens.......but if his stock continues to fall...how long will you stay with him?.......i realy don't know that much about the other guys to make a good pick.....can't waite to see x-sharkies take

 

[Chief]

Just my $0.02 on Lucic, which partly echoes steblick's comment.

I don't think he has much upside. He'll be a 25 goal powerforward at the WHL level by 07-08 I'm sure, but it won't translate to pro. His upside is to be a Turner Stevenson-type 8-10 goal grinder with size who adds some secondary toughness. Hard slapshot, but not much idea how to use it at this point, and his release isn't exactly quick.

In Lucic's defense, as a 17 year old, he had a hell of a year as a fighter. I remember that out of his first 15 or 16 tilts he had not lost any and had flat out won 10 of them. The guy also does not take any minor penalties. If he's going into the box it's for roughing someone up.

 

[Spectacular_Bid]

I see Williams as slightly better than Tyson Dowzak- and with rather similar styles although Williams is a bit more mobile- not to mention that both have been highly-rated big US defencemen at some point this year. The fact that the USNDP has used him as a spare part when going with their best team, a 6th or 7th depth guy on a U18 team doesn't spell out top 10 for me, getting two or three shifts in the biggest games of the year. He has some raw potential to be sure but if Redline and ISS (?) didn't have him so high I'm willing to bet that most viewers, upon watching him actually play, would likewise peg him as a third-rounder. No shame in that.

Somebody will probably grab him higher than I have him but I am pretty sure of at least two NHL teams that don't even have him on their draft list at all.

First off, great job! Always enjoy your take on the draft.

Second, I only got to see Williams play a few times this year and it was when E. Johnson was out of the lineup. To me Williams really stepped up. I thought he played very physical, moved the puck well and jumped into the play at the right times. Since I didn't get to see Williams and Johnson play together, I'm wondering if EJ had a negative effect on Williams play because when I saw him he looked like a late first rounder to me.

 

[helicecopter]

What I do roll my eyes at is the tendency for some less knowledgeable fans to think there is something "wrong" with a ranking because it differs from an existing ranking made elsewhere as though these other rankings were considered biblical.

Completely agree.

Of course, although fans are not really in a position to rank players they have never seen but it's always good to hear what knowledgeable fans have to say on players who they do see a lot.

I don't know if i qualify for the 'do see a lot a player' requirement, i've seen this guy something like 10 times..
i'm talking about Nikolai Kulemin and i think he should be considered top two rounds material (that's in a RSL-squabble-free draft, as your ratings are meant to be).

You were simply not considering overagers or you just rank 75 players ahead of him?

65. *Popov- Great with the puck, skates in elegant, meaningless circles without it

Not a pretty easily coachable/fixable flaw? (yeah, difficult to say without knowing the guy..) anyway, main point is: are you questioning his defensive awarness/effort OR his hockey sense?

 

[Hiishawk]

I don't know if i qualify for the 'do see a lot a player' requirement, i've seen this guy something like 10 times..
i'm talking about Nikolai Kulemin and i think he should be considered top two rounds material (that's in a RSL-squabble-free draft, as your ratings are meant to be).
You were simply not considering overagers or you just rank 75 players ahead of him?

Regarding what steblick said about Popov- Not a pretty easily coachable/fixable flaw? (yeah, difficult to say without knowing the guy..) anyway, main point is: are you questioning his defensive awarness/effort OR his hockey sense?

Kulemin is a real wild-card as are any and all 86 birthdates. Perhaps he should be on this list. It was hard not to notice him at the WJCs and apparently his play in Russia picked up too. I may have missed him.

Popov seems to have the habit, when losing the puck, of skating around rather aimlessly without achieving anything- just waiting for the puck to appear on his stick again. He makes his pro-level move with pro-level speed and if he loses the handle he goes for a practice skate. It looks like what players do in warm-up drills. I'd describe it as a tenacity problem first and foremost.