Stats that show Toews is elite defensively

[190Octane]

How about this;

Here is a table of his most frequent line mates over the last 4 years, and the net difference in their Corsi against per 60 when not on the ice with him

Player | CA diff w/o Toews
KEITH, DUNCAN | -1.25
HOSSA, MARIAN | -1.6
SEABROOK, BRENT | -1.36
SHARP, PATRICK | -1.4
KANE, PATRICK | -1.37
HJALMARSSON, NIKLAS | -1.47
LEDDY, NICK | -0.48
SAAD, BRANDON | -2.36
STALBERG, VIKTOR | -2.4
ODUYA, JOHNNY | -4.02
CAMPBELL, BRIAN | -1.18
BROUWER, TROY | -2.6
RAANTA, ANTTI | -0.15
BICKELL, BRYAN | 2.38
BRUNETTE, ANDREW | -1.48
ROZSIVAL, MICHAL | -3.07
KOPECKY, TOMAS | 0.76
FROLIK, MICHAEL | -3.23
BROOKBANK, SHELDON | -2.79
MONTADOR, STEVE | -4.07
VERSTEEG, KRIS | -3.17
BOYNTON, NICK | -2.75
CARCILLO, DAN | -1.55
O_DONNELL, SEAN | -2.21
SHAW, ANDREW | -2.13
SKILLE, JACK | -4.19
CAMPOLI, CHRIS | -1.82
CULLIMORE, JASSEN | 2.9
HENDRY, JORDAN | -3.32
SCOTT, JOHN | 1.97
SMITH, BEN | -1.97
OLSEN, DYLAN | -1.64

All those negatives are players who have over the last 4 years allowed less shot attempts per 60 when on the ice with Toews than when apart. That's quite the feat imo.

Here's the question, would that look the same for Getzlaf, Giroux, Stamkos, Tavares, Thornton, Crosby, and Malkin also though?

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Are shots attempted a fair measurement when he starts in the offensive zone 63.9% of the time vs. Getzlaf who starts in the offensive zone 48.5% of the time?

Another thing I'd like to point out is that he is starting in the offensive zone 63.9% of the time yet still allowing more goals per 20 minutes than all of those other centers who aren't starting there as often. You would think that an elite defensive center wouldn't be on the ice for so many goals against if he had the advantage of starting 170+ feet away from his own goal 63.9% of the time.

I believe I saw in another thread that his most frequent teammates on ice at even strength were Hossa, Sharp, Keith, and Seabrook. When he is still allowing more goals than the rest of the list of centers you provided, it certainly raises questions about the groupthink regarding his supposed elite defensive abilities.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Well you can choose to not comment further if you'd like and I'm glad you're letting me me know I'm free to continue. Thanks.

Here's the thing. I've been playing fantasy hockey for a long time so things like corsi and fenwick are not new to me and are very useful in some cases. Especially in something purely stats based like fantasy hockey.

However, in real life hockey there are things that numbers can't equate and very important such as a players intangibles, work ethic, game reading ability (hockey I.Q) and level of professionalism. For those things the "eye test" is relied upon to gauge the true value of a player in real life game situations.

The eye test can also be extremey biased as well. It has basically been proven that you look for what you want to see.

If you go to a game expecting great defensive plays by Toews, you will be much more inclined to notice and remember that great backcheck he made that one time, but fail to remember the 4 give aways he had that led to a goal (just using an example, not saying this happened).

Truth is you need both, and no, the eye test does not trump stats 98.99% of the time like you had stated.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Agreed completely - when both are available, the only sensible answer is both.

I'm interested in digging into this particular question a bit more, though - if someone's a good defensive player (let's say that the "eye test" tells us this), how can we corroborate that in the data?

 

[190Octane]

Agreed completely - when both are available, the only sensible answer is both.

I'm interested in digging into this particular question a bit more, though - if someone's a good defensive player (let's say that the "eye test" tells us this), how can we corroborate that in the data?

What is the make up of good defense though? Is it a player with a lot of takeaways? One that limits shots attempted, or just limits shots on goal? Do only goals against count? How do you take into account the quality of the player's linemates and goaltending on these numbers?

Is a dominant player on offense good by default on defense because the other team can't score if they don't have the puck?

How much do zone starts and finishes factor in?

I'm not sure what the answers to these questions are, one of the reasons I started the thread.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

You're asking the same question that I'm asking.

 

[190Octane]

You're asking the same question that I'm asking.

Yeah, just expanding upon it.

 

[CanadianHockey]

Basically every forward on CHI (save for 4 players who receive few minutes) has an OZSP in the 60's...all that says to me is that CHI has a fantastic possession game (not Toews receiving cushy minutes).

Toews, Hossa, Kane (not counting Morin - sample size) have basically the same OZFP (highest on the team for forwards). Not entirely sure of the explanation but there is likely a reason for this pattern.

In terms of the GA thing the only players with a lower ON-ICE-SV (SV% is pretty much only reflective of the goaltender ie. no significant correlation between team and a goaltender's SV%) than Toews are Bickell and Smith combined with the fact he has one of the lowest GA/60 of regular players on the CHI says to me he may have just been a bit unlucky (in fact I might even say it says a lot about Cory Crawford).

I think Corsi much better reflects his defensive/possesion impact (likely the reason Kopitar, Bergeron, and Toews all rank in the top 10 and that's without even adjusting for players with tiny sample sizes eg. 1GP)

Could be wrong though as my understanding of all these metrics is at a fairly novice level.

I don't necessarily agree. Have we had a thread on this?

 

[poes law]

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/index.php

Quality of competition is important, which players on that list had better and worse if you don't mind me asking.

Also, it looks like last season he had his best season by far defensively by the numbers you posted. Unfortunately I'm on my phone right now and can't see how the others stack up but it's something I will look at later.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...&f2=5v5&f4=C&f7=50-&c=3+13+24+27+29+33#snip=f

If you use behindthenet instead, Toews goes from letting in more goals than everyone but Tavares to little difference between him and the rest of the pack, save Tavares who is significantly worse and Kopitar who is significantly better, all this while facing stronger competition than these other forwards.

Compared to behindthenet, hockeyanalysis over-counted the GA/20 Toews was on for, and under-counted the GA/20 everybody else on the list was on for. Unless someone wants to make the argument that one of these two sources is either pro- or anti- Toews, the best conclusion we can draw is that these "infallible, objective" stats that so many people like to claim is the absolute truth with no bias are, in fact, flawed, even if only during measurement.

ETA: At a very cursory glance, it looks like Plekanec deserves a lot more love in the Selke considerations, but his on ice save % is 94.3%, so take that for what it's worth.

 

[190Octane]

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...&f2=5v5&f4=C&f7=50-&c=3+13+24+27+29+33#snip=f

If you use behindthenet instead, Toews goes from letting in more goals than everyone but Tavares to little difference between him and the rest of the pack, save Tavares who is significantly worse and Kopitar who is significantly better, all this while facing stronger competition than these other forwards.

Compared to behindthenet, hockeyanalysis over-counted the GA/20 Toews was on for, and under-counted the GA/20 everybody else on the list was on for. Unless someone wants to make the argument that one of these two sources is either pro- or anti- Toews, the best conclusion we can draw is that these "infallible, objective" stats that so many people like to claim is the absolute truth with no bias are, in fact, flawed, even if only during measurement.

ETA: At a very cursory glance, it looks like Plekanec deserves a lot more love in the Selke considerations, but his on ice save % is 94.3%, so take that for what it's worth.

Even if he is in with the rest of the pack, doesn't it prove the point that he isn't far and away the best defensive center out of everyone?

 

[poes law]

Even if he is in with the rest of the pack, doesn't it prove the point that he isn't far and away the best defensive center out of everyone?

I should have mentioned. I personally don't think he's deserving of being a finalist this season as he's been below his standard. But even still, he's doing as well as most of the others, but against harder competition. How much harder competition varies from player to player, but of everyone you chose, he does receive the hardest competition. That said, being with the rest of the pack does in fact suggest he is better than that pack. Being far out of the pack is what would make someone "far and away" better or worse than anybody else in the pack, accounting for quality of competition. With this, out of your chosen players only Tavares should be seen as far worse than everyone else, and only Kopitar should be seen as far better. However, keep in mind that these conclusions are only valid should the data (I'm using behindthenet) be correct, which due to the rather large discrepancy between the two data sources, is not a given.

TLDR; Toews is not "far and away" better, but only Kopitar has a very strong claim to being a better defensive forward this season (of that list). Getzlaf is close, everyone else lags behind these three.

 

[Micklebot]

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...&f2=5v5&f4=C&f7=50-&c=3+13+24+27+29+33#snip=f

If you use behindthenet instead, Toews goes from letting in more goals than everyone but Tavares to little difference between him and the rest of the pack, save Tavares who is significantly worse and Kopitar who is significantly better, all this while facing stronger competition than these other forwards.

Compared to behindthenet, hockeyanalysis over-counted the GA/20 Toews was on for, and under-counted the GA/20 everybody else on the list was on for. Unless someone wants to make the argument that one of these two sources is either pro- or anti- Toews, the best conclusion we can draw is that these "infallible, objective" stats that so many people like to claim is the absolute truth with no bias are, in fact, flawed, even if only during measurement.

ETA: At a very cursory glance, it looks like Plekanec deserves a lot more love in the Selke considerations, but his on ice save % is 94.3%, so take that for what it's worth.

What are you talking about? All three major sites have Toews at the same GA/min in 2013/14 aside from minor rounding differences.

Behind the net 5vs5 GA/60: 2.44

HockeyAnalysis 5vs5 GA/20 *3: .818 x 3 = 2.454

ExtraSkater 5vs5 GA/60: 2.4

 

[poes law]

What are you talking about? All three major sites have Toews at the same GA/min in 2013/14 aside from minor rounding differences.

Behind the net 5vs5 GA/60: 2.44

HockeyAnalysis 5vs5 GA/20 *3: .818 x 3 = 2.454

ExtraSkater 5vs5 GA/60: 2.4

Did you try checking the other guys on the list?

 

[Jtown]

How about this;

Here is a table of his most frequent line mates over the last 4 years, and the net difference in their Corsi against per 60 when not on the ice with him

Player | CA diff w/o Toews
KEITH, DUNCAN | -1.25
HOSSA, MARIAN | -1.6
SEABROOK, BRENT | -1.36
SHARP, PATRICK | -1.4
KANE, PATRICK | -1.37
HJALMARSSON, NIKLAS | -1.47
LEDDY, NICK | -0.48
SAAD, BRANDON | -2.36
STALBERG, VIKTOR | -2.4
ODUYA, JOHNNY | -4.02
CAMPBELL, BRIAN | -1.18
BROUWER, TROY | -2.6
RAANTA, ANTTI | -0.15
BICKELL, BRYAN | 2.38
BRUNETTE, ANDREW | -1.48
ROZSIVAL, MICHAL | -3.07
KOPECKY, TOMAS | 0.76
FROLIK, MICHAEL | -3.23
BROOKBANK, SHELDON | -2.79
MONTADOR, STEVE | -4.07
VERSTEEG, KRIS | -3.17
BOYNTON, NICK | -2.75
CARCILLO, DAN | -1.55
O_DONNELL, SEAN | -2.21
SHAW, ANDREW | -2.13
SKILLE, JACK | -4.19
CAMPOLI, CHRIS | -1.82
CULLIMORE, JASSEN | 2.9
HENDRY, JORDAN | -3.32
SCOTT, JOHN | 1.97
SMITH, BEN | -1.97
OLSEN, DYLAN | -1.64

All those negatives are players who have over the last 4 years allowed less shot attempts per 60 when on the ice with Toews than when apart. That's quite the feat imo.

this is more of a relative statistic that is hard to surmise any sort of league comparison because of it.

For instance Toews is chicago's 1st line center but who is their 2nd line center? handzus? All this is showing is that toews is better than handzus which we all know. The same could be done for centers such as giroux and getzlaf who are by far and away better than their teams 2nd line centers. Guys like crosby and thornton might now have that kind of discrepancy because they come from teams with strong centers.

 

[Micklebot]

Did you try checking the other guys on the list?

Hmm strange. You said it was overcounting Toews, so that's all I checked, but it does seem off with the others. Odd that it's spot on across all three with Toews though.

BTN has Kopitar on for 28 5vs5 goals while Extra skater says 25 (and 27 ES). I've always assumed these sites scrape the RTSS feeds from NHL to get the data, and those are unreliable.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

this is more of a relative statistic that is hard to surmise any sort of league comparison because of it.

For instance Toews is chicago's 1st line center but who is their 2nd line center? handzus? All this is showing is that toews is better than handzus which we all know. The same could be done for centers such as giroux and getzlaf who are by far and away better than their teams 2nd line centers. Guys like crosby and thornton might now have that kind of discrepancy because they come from teams with strong centers.

I'll second that this is an excellent point and it is one that is often neglected when comparing a player's on and off ice performances. Both in contemporary analysis and on the history board.