GDT: St. Louis Blues @ Detroit Red Wings

[Dotter]

This is asinine. I do not solely blame Holland. Most people don't 100%. But he is the face of management when it comes to the roster and the coaching staff. He deserves a large share of the blame for how he has managed the team.

It is possible the owners are a big reason he has done what he has done. But that just makes them culpable to a poor model and a far cry from what the team used to be. I don't care if they cared about the streak, or they wanted to stay "competitive". They made poor choices and kept the team limping along, which has led to a mediocre product that is spending to the salary cap every year. We have one of the worst defenses in the league, potentially no superstar at forward, a complete question mark in goal going forward, and a coaching staff that doesn't produce.

There is no defense for the state of the team. The fact you are willing to give management another 8 years or so before you are willing to part ways is telling.

Telling to what, exactly?

And much of what I have speculated all along has been confirmed by Jim Devellano.

"From ownership on down, we don't want to gut it and go to the bottom. We just don't want to do that — we're going to a new building.

Bottoming out fully alienates some fans for a while, probably longer than anyone would desire, in Detroit. But the franchise might then resurrect with serial top draft choices who pan out.

The Blackhawks did it, and they now skate with Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith, and their future of success appears to extend beyond the horizon.

"We think we owe it to everybody not just to say, well, the only way we're going to get (players like that) is to go to the bottom. That can be a tough, tough period for the franchise. But the teams that have done that, like Chicago, they wind up with the Kanes and the Toewses and the Keiths."

Devellano stated explicitly that one reason the Red Wings chose not to deconstruct fully, in order to reconstruct, is the accumulating ages of Mike Ilitch, Holland and, Devellano said, himself. Krupa: Devellano, Wings rebuild instead of gutting team

Based on looking at other teams around the league, seeing what it takes to rebuild, I think 10 years is fair assessment. And I don't care who you have as GM - nobody is going to do it faster (unless they have an ungodly amount of luck in draft lottery and finding multiple late round GEMS). But yeah, that's the norm of best case scenarios and most logical and realistic. That'll put us at 2026.

Every franchise will have to deal with this. CHI will soon be facing this. My guess is they are the 2010 version of us now. Parity.

 

[Syckle78]

Is every decision one makes always and only based on 1 exclusive element? We all learned the pros and cons list in grade school, right? You'd have to think Billionaires also take everything into account when they make decisions, too.

Perhaps they felt:
Honor Mr I.
Z and D still have gas and want to win
Milking revenue
25 year streak

But in your world it can only be 1? If life were only that black and white with no other colors options, boy how does that fit the M.O. of this message forum oh-so-well.

You forgot pride.

 

[lomekian]

He's far from the team's worst player right now obviously, but it's important to note that at this point in the season last year, league wide the average goals scored per game was approx. 5.2ish, and this year it's 5.9ish. That, along with most of his points being assists (his G to A ratio tends closer to 1:1), his production so far strikes as suspicious, probably the favorable shake of statistical noise, at the very least maybe it's not quite the improvement over last season the raw numbers would have us believe. League-wide scoring tends to dip to its lowest point between games 350-750, so it'll be interesting to see by the end of January if his rate holds up or regresses substantially over the next six to eight weeks.

Fair comment. So far, however his point scoring is up by a higher ratio than league wide. Agree that there have been some soft secondary assists, but some of that is due to smart subtle plays near or along the boards that many of our guys could learn from.

As you suggested, his body is likely to wear out a bit before his contract ends, but I have seen signs of him playing a bit smarter this year, so hopefully that will help.

Ultimately the point is a simple one. If he stays mostly healthy he'll probably remain a fairly priced contract. If he doesn't....

 

[lomekian]

All I can say is I find it somewhat ugly the way this is going down. Unlike those who seem to trust Holland unconditionally, the majority of his signings the last years I have strongly disliked. Richards, Cleary, Miller, Daley, Abdelkader, etc. By their own doing management have created/allowed our terrible defense. Letting Hudler walk was a mistake. The deadline deal for Cole and Zidlicky is the perfect example of what I consider a loser move.

Someone said it well in another thread- the rebuild could be expedited. I read claim the Wings are rebuilding all while Illich's baseball team begins a true tear down rebuild. There are multiple paths the Wings could choose to tread into. Instead they appear content to do nothing while the forces of nature erode and swallow alive what was until fairly recently a top end hockey brain-trust. I think Detroit needs to get active again, in each department, regenerating the dedication to excellence. I thought we learned from Edmonton there's more to managing than higher draft picks lol.

Bar Abdelkader and the Cole deal (I really liked his play and fit before the freak spine injury), I'd agree with much of what you say. We could do with an excellence renewal, with or without Holland. The problem is, until he and ownership reach some sort of conclusion about his contract, nothing much will happen.

As such, the wings could learn 1 thing from the Leafs for sure - a more global, modern, sporting director and framework approach. At present there seems to be little leadership bar KH, and no clear organisational philosophy beyond Holland's. Someone like Holland (but probably not him under the circumstances) needs to come in alongside/above the GM to maintain consistency in what is likely to be a period of change for the organisation...and someone younger and more relevant than Jimmy D. Detroit has been a pretty well run Hockey organisations, but as with the way the NHL is run, teams need to pull their heads out of their rear and look beyond the NHL to pick up best practice from elsewhere...without just becoming analytics slaves.

 

[lomekian]

Now maybe last year was the start of real changes. But let's not pretend that the roster has been constructed in the vein of, 'staying patient, and whatever happens, happens'. Holland did everything he possibly could to artificially maintain a token streak, and the aftermath of that approach is a significant element to the mess they're in today.

I think is the key. It was all about trying to keep the streak going, hoping to keep it to LCA and while Mr I was going, and hoping to strike gold in UFA or the draft.

Now the streak is over, we are in the new building, Mr. I isn't around any more, and its clear to all and sundry that we aren't really competitive. Compare interviews with KH 2 years ago and now. Chalk and cheese, bar the stumbling over words and weird sounds he makes when thinking on his feet.

 

[lomekian]

or maybe it's just incompetence

you're here constructing this increasingly elaborate list of excuses for Holland,Can't he just be a bad GM? ever hear of Occam's razor?

This again? He's hardly the messiah, and 2013-2016 had some mistakes for sure, but he has also been very very good at his job for long stretches.

Can we not acknowledge mistakes made without lurching straight into accusations of incompetence and gutlessness (another poster)?

KH made mistakes because time, the draft system that rewards failure to generate cash, and some bad luck at the wrong times made his job much harder. That doesn't mean he is exempt from criticism, but it doesn't invalidate his good decisions either.

Is he the man for the future? Probably not, but equally there isn't much evidence to suggest he'd be bad at a rebuild as he's only been actively engaging in one for about 10 months...

And yes, of course his decision making will be influenced significantly by the wishes of his boss. He'd be an idiot if it wasn't. Of course, none of us know what was said behind closed doors...

 

[lomekian]

We've been retooling since 2010. We're on year 7-8 of a rebuild.

Without wishing to align my views too closely with Dotter, that simply isn't true. Unless you count any new players joining a roster as a rebuild...

 

[lomekian]

The average tenure of an NHL GM is 5 years. You're giving Holland 10 because he used to be part of a very successful team, despite 5 years and counting of an unacceptable product. I'll pass.

Holland won't be here in a decade, so its a moot point.

 

[TheMule93]

Without wishing to align my views too closely with Dotter, that simply isn't true. Unless you count any new players joining a roster as a rebuild...

honestly, i don't actually think we're in year 8 of a rebuild. I'm just trying to participate in the mental gymnastics going on. I'm not even sure we have started a rebuild yet. Havent moved a single roster player for picks or prospects other than a 1 year rental in Vanek.

 

[lomekian]

honestly, i don't actually think we're in year 8 of a rebuild. I'm just trying to participate in the mental gymnastics going on. I'm not even sure we have started a rebuild yet. Havent moved a single roster player for picks or prospects other than a 1 year rental in Vanek.

That way madness lies!

The fact of the new NHL is, no-one knows how long it can take, bar than a minimum of 2 years (to draft star players) and a maximum of forever. If we somehow Edmonton-ed, or Pittsburgh-ed our way to consecutive lottery flukes in our favour, that's the hard yards right there. Dahlin, Jack Hughes and the probable handful of roster players from our multiple draft picks on top of Mantha, Larkin, AA, Hronek (one of our few prospects going pretty well in the AHL as the team stinks at the mo), Rasmussen and maybe Svech, Lil-Bert, and maybe a Sambrook or Saarijarvi, and that's and exciting base to build on.

Equally, we could outperform expectations, get screwed by the lottery, pick badly and strike out repeatedly in FA, and be rebuilding forever.

Or we could be like LA or Boston and win a cup with only intermittent bad seasons. Or we could be like Arizona and Edmonton and have endless top picks on top of some pretty talented players and still manage to be awful every year.

Anyone claiming to know is talking nonsense. The only thing we know is that good decisions by good people in a stable organisation is the real key. We HAVE had that, but the owner is now dead, and JD & KH are making decisions with an eye on their retirement, so no-one knows whether this rebuilding phase will be overseen by the calibre of people it needs to be.

I prefer to remain optimistic. Partly because Chris Ilitch has seen good people around him for much of his life and interest in the wings, and partly because life is just nicer day to day if you're optimistic, despite inevitable disappointments!

 

[Dotter]

honestly, i don't actually think we're in year 8 of a rebuild. I'm just trying to participate in the mental gymnastics going on. I'm not even sure we have started a rebuild yet. Havent moved a single roster player for picks or prospects other than a 1 year rental in Vanek.

Brendan Smith???

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Telling to what, exactly?

Telling to how little you expect from the General Manager.

 

[jkutswings]

Brendan Smith???

But if the only players ever moved are rentals and whipping boys, that's not a rebuilding effort. That's reajusting spare parts.

 

[Dotter]

Telling to how little you expect from the General Manager.

Is it tho? Lets look at 1 successful rebuild: Penguins

It started in 2000/01. They drafted #5 in 2002. They found some great players in the draft from Malkin, Letang, and Marc-Andre Fleury. They also got some good players Staal, Kennedy, Oprik. But what really pushed them over the edge was being the *lucky* team to pick #1 for generational talent; Sindy Crosby.

How often do these Sindy Crosby's come around?

They go to the finals in 2008 ending the rebuild. That's 8 years it took them even after drafting the best hockey player in the world. And the "draft lottery" was different back then? So that changes things, I am sure. And there were less NHL hockey teams, too.

So after looking at the reality and facts of real historic data, how are my expectations too low?

Lastly, is it Sabres fault they didn't draft McDavid in 2015? I feel like you'd (and many others here) would blame Ken Holland for the inability of winning the draft lottery after finishing dead last... like Sabres did in 2015.

 

[Pavels Dog]

But if the only players ever moved are rentals and whipping boys, that's not a rebuilding effort. That's reajusting spare parts.

Every player on this team is a whipping boy, ”rental” or seen as a spare part.. convenient way to make sure no matter what Holland does he won’t get credit. Smith, Sheahan, Jurco, Vanek were all roster players. Hardly unlikely that Green goes this TDL and maybe others.

 

[ricky0034]

This again? He's hardly the messiah, and 2013-2016 had some mistakes for sure, but he has also been very very good at his job for long stretches.

Can we not acknowledge mistakes made without lurching straight into accusations of incompetence and gutlessness (another poster)?

KH made mistakes because time, the draft system that rewards failure to generate cash, and some bad luck at the wrong times made his job much harder. That doesn't mean he is exempt from criticism, but it doesn't invalidate his good decisions either.

Is he the man for the future? Probably not, but equally there isn't much evidence to suggest he'd be bad at a rebuild as he's only been actively engaging in one for about 10 months...

And yes, of course his decision making will be influenced significantly by the wishes of his boss. He'd be an idiot if it wasn't. Of course, none of us know what was said behind closed doors...

I just don't see how good decisions made a decade ago have anything to do with today

was he a good GM at some point in the past? sure,but he's been at this a very long time and at this point it should be incredibly clear to anyone paying attention in recent years that things have long since passed him by and he's no longer cut out for the role

acknowledge mistakes? it's been practically nothing BUT mistakes for like a half decade at this point

he doesn't make a lot of flashy awful moves like a Mike Milbury type(he's too conservative for that) so it's a bit tougher to spot,but you don't arrive at a roster that's both as devoid of talent as this one is that's also simultaneously bogged down with literally like a half dozen terrible contracts(some of them with quite a few years still left on them) to a group of guys that even at their very best were never anything more than mediocre role players without a whole lot of bad GMing along the way

we've been on this path for a quite a while now and Holland has been there pushing it along every step of the way

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Is it tho? Lets look at 1 successful rebuild: Penguins

It started in 2000/01. They drafted #5 in 2002. They found some great players in the draft from Malkin, Letang, and Marc-Andre Fleury. They also got some good players Staal, Kennedy, Oprik. But what really pushed them over the edge was being the *lucky* team to pick #1 for generational talent; Sindy Crosby.

How often do these Sindy Crosby's come around?

They go to the finals in 2008 ending the rebuild. That's 8 years it took them even after drafting the best hockey player in the world. And the "draft lottery" was different back then? So that changes things, I am sure. And there were less NHL hockey teams, too.

So after looking at the reality and facts of real historic data, how are my expectations too low?

Lastly, is it Sabres fault they didn't draft McDavid in 2015? I feel like you'd (and many others here) would blame Ken Holland for the inability of winning the draft lottery after finishing dead last... like Sabres did in 2015.

The Penguins were not terrible by design (also keep in mind the GM who won them their first cup in the 21st century didn't join the team till 2006 and was let go before they won their back to back cups) They were terrible because they literally couldn't afford it and from the late 90s till they landed Crosby were in problematic waters. Keep in mind Mario Lemiuex had to bail them out of bankruptcy and up until the Crosby draft they were in danger of being relocated because of the financial situation they were in.

And nobody in Buffalo is blaming the GM for them missing out on McDavid. That is one of the few examples of a GM actively tanking (not just rebuilding, but tanking for a top-tier talent and potentially winning the lottery), which is not what most Wings fans are looking for. Most of us are looking for a GM who can embrace the concept of not being competitive for a few seasons and rebuilding with high draft picks. Not necessarily looking for the #1 or #2 overall, but accepting a few seasons of poor play while adding top-tier talents and looking to build another 20+ year dynasty like we had in the late 90s-early 2000s. I will take 5-8 seasons of crap for 20 seasons of contention and domination.

Holland has not once demonstrated the patience or desire to reset the clock and rebuild. Last season was good in terms of getting assets, but it was only a half measure in the end. The Penguins did not have a high amount of patience with Shero. Because of that they were able to win two cups in a row. Why should we be patient with a GM who won a cup a year prior to a GM who has sinced been sacked?

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Every player on this team is a whipping boy, ”rental” or seen as a spare part.. convenient way to make sure no matter what Holland does he won’t get credit. Smith, Sheahan, Jurco, Vanek were all roster players. Hardly unlikely that Green goes this TDL and maybe others.

How many of those four players was generally liked for their play? Vanek was the only one. Smith was inconsistent as all hell and it was a love/hate relationship, Jurco had a short stint where he was liked and never really improved (where is he now?), and Sheahan didn't score a goal for 81 games last season (and has 3 goals/9 points so far this season).

I'm curious which of the three (Smith/Jurco/Sheahan) you wouldn't classify as a rental, whipping boy, or spare part.

 

[Dotter]

Most of us are looking for a GM who can embrace the concept of not being competitive for a few seasons and rebuilding with high draft picks. Not necessarily looking for the #1 or #2 overall, but accepting a few seasons of poor play while adding top-tier talents and looking to build another 20+ year dynasty like we had in the late 90s-early 2000s. I will take 5-8 seasons of crap for 20 seasons of contention and domination.

That's what he's doing. He just drafted a big powerforward centerman that's been tearing up the WHL since nursing an injury. Larkin has looked good. And we still have a long ways to go! But Ken Holland is doing it the right way.

Holland has not once demonstrated the patience or desire to reset the clock and rebuild. Last season was good in terms of getting assets, but it was only a half measure in the end.

Again, Last year was the 1st year missing the playoffs. He traded roster players with no future here for picks and acquired more draft selections last draft than we had in the last 20+ years. We are on track to do that again this draft. You can't do a complete and successful rebuild from one draft.

Doesn't seem like half measures to me.

 

[HIFE]

Every player on this team is a whipping boy, ”rental” or seen as a spare part.. convenient way to make sure no matter what Holland does he won’t get credit. Smith, Sheahan, Jurco, Vanek were all roster players. Hardly unlikely that Green goes this TDL and maybe others.

You forgot Ott and Kindl! Holland sure is hoarding those picks! Sheahan was because of the cap crunch and they offered Smith a contract (thank the heavens he rejected it). Everyone agrees the return for a misfit like Smith was outstanding but overall a 7,6, four 3's and one 2nd round pick is hardly anything to be super encouraged by. The 2nd round is the most desirable and traded asset in the NHL- the Wings have to do whatever necessary to get more of those and extra 1st's.

If this rebuild began last season it just isn't aggressive enough for the majority of the fanbase. There appears to be no desperation, no passion to contend again. Management is riding the fence. What purpose does Tatar play rebuilding the team? I like Tats but finishing in 26th place is not the time to offer 4x5.3 to a 45pt complimentary player. Observers have nothing to say but lol at the Wings questionable contracts. When was the last time Holland won a negotiation or finagled a home-town discount? Label them impatient but a lot of fans are not impressed with the club's decision-making.

 

[Redder Winger]

Is it tho? Lets look at 1 successful rebuild: Penguins

It started in 2000/01. They drafted #5 in 2002. They found some great players in the draft from Malkin, Letang, and Marc-Andre Fleury. They also got some good players Staal, Kennedy, Oprik. But what really pushed them over the edge was being the *lucky* team to pick #1 for generational talent; Sindy Crosby.

How often do these Sindy Crosby's come around?

They go to the finals in 2008 ending the rebuild. That's 8 years it took them even after drafting the best hockey player in the world. And the "draft lottery" was different back then? So that changes things, I am sure. And there were less NHL hockey teams, too.

So after looking at the reality and facts of real historic data, how are my expectations too low?

Lastly, is it Sabres fault they didn't draft McDavid in 2015? I feel like you'd (and many others here) would blame Ken Holland for the inability of winning the draft lottery after finishing dead last... like Sabres did in 2015.

Your argument isn't very cogent and it isn't helped when you construct strawmen (I feel like you would blame Holland if... etc etc etc).

You don't need a Crosby to turn things around.
But even if you have a Hall, a Nugent-Hopkins, a Nurse, a Yakupove, a Draisaitl and a McDavid, you can struggle.

There is no single way to rebuild.

But you need skill You need elite skill if you ever want to become good again.

The problem with the Red Wings' "rebuild" is that it's delusional.
Ken Holland thought this team was good enough to be a playoff team.
Ken Holland thinks he's got a NHL coach - even though evidence is mounting that Blashill is in over his head.
He thinks his draft picks are better than they are, so he overpays them on longterm deals.

I don't know what else you need to know other than this.
Oldest team in the NHL - Detroit.
Third highest cap hit in the NHL - Detroit
Fourth lowest regulation wins in NHL - Detroit.
Number of very good prospects in the AHL - Zero
Number of BLUECHIP prospects in the system - Zero
Number of UFAs after this season - 1


So you have a very expensive, very old, very bad team with few prospects -- none of whom are considered elite. And there's not much room for turnover in the offseason.

This team is locked in to mediocrity.

The laughable part of this entire thing is that Ken Holland has almost no assets to trade because of the god awful contracts he's signed.

So keep on defending this if you want. But it's pretty obvious Holland has completely screwed this roster 10 ways til Sunday.

 

[Shaman464]

Your argument isn't very cogent and it isn't helped when you construct strawmen (I feel like you would blame Holland if... etc etc etc).

You don't need a Crosby to turn things around.
But even if you have a Hall, a Nugent-Hopkins, a Nurse, a Yakupove, a Draisaitl and a McDavid, you can struggle.

There is no single way to rebuild.

But you need skill You need elite skill if you ever want to become good again.

The problem with the Red Wings' "rebuild" is that it's delusional.
Ken Holland thought this team was good enough to be a playoff team.
Ken Holland thinks he's got a NHL coach - even though evidence is mounting that Blashill is in over his head.
He thinks his draft picks are better than they are, so he overpays them on longterm deals.

I don't know what else you need to know other than this.
Oldest team in the NHL - Detroit.
Third highest cap hit in the NHL - Detroit
Fourth lowest regulation wins in NHL - Detroit.
Number of very good prospects in the AHL - Zero
Number of BLUECHIP prospects in the system - Zero
Number of UFAs after this season - 1


So you have a very expensive, very old, very bad team with few prospects -- none of whom are considered elite. And there's not much room for turnover in the offseason.

This team is locked in to mediocrity.

The laughable part of this entire thing is that Ken Holland has almost no assets to trade because of the god awful contracts he's signed.

So keep on defending this if you want. But it's pretty obvious Holland has completely screwed this roster 10 ways til Sunday.

The first italicized part is what negates the second bold part. The fact that Holland is giving Blash nearly impossible marching orders makes the default position over his head. And your complaint is contradictory. It can't both be Blash's fault and Holland's fault. Either Holland gave Blash a playoff team and he's squandering it, or Blash has been given a shit team and is being told pull out all the stops to make the playoffs.

 

[jkutswings]

Every player on this team is a whipping boy, ”rental” or seen as a spare part.. convenient way to make sure no matter what Holland does he won’t get credit. Smith, Sheahan, Jurco, Vanek were all roster players. Hardly unlikely that Green goes this TDL and maybe others.

If Green gets moved, that's a significant trade, which counts (even if, by now, it's a painfully obvious one to make). But many fans have been asking for a Nyquist or Tatar trade for years, yet the defense has continued to rot. This roster had a plethora of middle six forwards that could've been packaged for a decent defenseman for years on end, but it never happened, and ultimately, that's on Holland.

 

[jkutswings]

Is it tho? Lets look at 1 successful rebuild: Penguins

It started in 2000/01. They drafted #5 in 2002. They found some great players in the draft from Malkin, Letang, and Marc-Andre Fleury. They also got some good players Staal, Kennedy, Oprik. But what really pushed them over the edge was being the *lucky* team to pick #1 for generational talent; Sindy Crosby.

How often do these Sindy Crosby's come around?

They go to the finals in 2008 ending the rebuild. That's 8 years it took them even after drafting the best hockey player in the world. And the "draft lottery" was different back then? So that changes things, I am sure. And there were less NHL hockey teams, too.

So after looking at the reality and facts of real historic data, how are my expectations too low?

Lastly, is it Sabres fault they didn't draft McDavid in 2015? I feel like you'd (and many others here) would blame Ken Holland for the inability of winning the draft lottery after finishing dead last... like Sabres did in 2015.

Except for the minor detail that Crosby was taken first overall in 2005, only 3 years before the Pens went to the finals. Which kinda picks apart your timeline.

Elite players have an impact sooner than later the vast majority of the time.

 

[Redder Winger]

The first italicized part is what negates the second bold part. The fact that Holland is giving Blash nearly impossible marching orders makes the default position over his head. And your complaint is contradictory. It can't both be Blash's fault and Holland's fault. Either Holland gave Blash a playoff team and he's squandering it, or Blash has been given a **** team and is being told pull out all the stops to make the playoffs.

It can totally be both their fault.
This isn't an either or proposition.

Lack of talent hurts.
A lack of talent would make us finish around 8 to 10 in the conference.

Blashill is going to have this team near the bottom of the NHL by the end of the year.