GDT: Spidey's Return: Devils @ Wild, 8 PM, MSG+

[Zippy316]

There's no nuance there, it's simply not a mathematical predictive stat of NHL team success. Which is all that matters from my standpoint. If you have to codifi a statistic by evaluating 278 "other" statistics around it to try to grab some perspective and "context", then that statistic is devalued to the point of near meaninglessness (Steven Santini is my favorite current example of this BTW).

Not to go down this rabbit hole again, but aside from some people who like to post it blindly without context, almost every reputable or reasonable person that I've seen that applies Corsi notes that. It's just a quantifiable way to look at possession.

Back in 2013 or so, there were a lot of studies that showed Corsi being a good indicator of team success, but that seems to have changed dramatically of late. Haven't seen much of that talk lately come playoff time as it seems like teams have built away from the Kings/Bruins style of play that reflected higher CF% into the Penguins/Senators style of play that has been built to counter that.

As teams build more on speed and skill, quantity seemingly matters a lot less than quality. But it also doesn't erase the data from pre-2013 that corroborated using CF% as gage of team success. Now it seems to be a lot more about xGF%.

 

[AfroThunder396]

There's no nuance there, it's simply not a mathematical predictive stat of NHL team success. Which is all that matters from my standpoint. If you have to codifi a statistic by evaluating 278 "other" statistics around it to try to grab some perspective and "context", then that statistic is devalued to the point of near meaninglessness (Steven Santini is my favorite current example of this for this season BTW).

Stats are descriptive, not explanatory. You're not good because you have a high corsi - you're good because you manage the puck well, win board battles, transition up the ice, generate a lot of offense, and defend well, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN the fact your possession figures are good.

Of course, they are required for team success. A lot of times teams play well and lose, or play poorly and win. Look at last night - outplayed but capitalized on our chances and won the game (with the help of some fortunate bounces and excellent goaltending). That's a totally valid way to win games. But, do you honestly think getting outshot 36-25 every night the whole season is a reliable way to win games and make the playoffs? Or generally, would you say outshooting your opponent is a good thing in more times than not?

No one has ever claimed that they're perfect predictors. But generally, yes, teams that tend to perform well in possession will do better than teams that perform worse in possession. One team bucking that trend doesn't disprove it, hockey is an extraordinarily complex and dynamic system.

We won the Cup with the 30th ranked PP in the league in 2003, does that mean that mean that PP is completely useless and has no value to hockey teams? I mean, according to your reasoning we should just discard it entirely and not try to improve the power play because that one time we proved it doesn't have anything to do with our ability to make the playoffs or win Cups since.

There are always exceptions. If you're demanding a magic bullet stat that will predict every score of every game with pinpoint accuracy, then yeah, you got me there I guess.

 

[Bleedred]

Stats are descriptive, not explanatory. You're not good because you have a high corsi - you're good because you manage the puck well, win board battles, transition up the ice, generate a lot of offense, and defend well, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN the fact your possession figures are good.

Of course, they are required for team success. A lot of times teams play well and lose, or play poorly and win. Look at last night - outplayed but capitalized on our chances and won the game (with the help of some fortunate bounces and excellent goaltending). That's a totally valid way to win games. But, do you honestly think getting outshot 36-25 every night the whole season is a reliable way to win games and make the playoffs? Or generally, would you say outshooting your opponent is a good thing in more times than not?

No one has ever claimed that they're perfect predictors. But generally, yes, teams that tend to perform well in possession will do better than teams that perform worse in possession. One team bucking that trend doesn't disprove it, hockey is an extraordinarily complex and dynamic system.

We won the Cup with the 30th ranked PP in the league in 2003, does that mean that mean that PP is completely useless and has no value to hockey teams? I mean, according to your reasoning we should just discard it entirely and not try to improve the power play because that one time we proved it doesn't have anything to do with our ability to make the playoffs or win Cups since.

There are always exceptions. If you're demanding a magic bullet stat that will predict every score of every game with pinpoint accuracy, then yeah, you got me there I guess.

Agreed, with heavy emphasis on one team bucking that trend.

There’s usually one or two teams every year that make the playoffs like that, and they don’t make it back next year or until after some huge changes. I gave quite a few examples in the Hynes thread, of those teams we saw in recent years.

 

[BenedictGomez]

do you honestly think getting outshot 36-25 every night the whole season is a reliable way to win games and make the playoffs? Or generally, would you say outshooting your opponent is a good thing in more times than not?

The Devils better hope so.

Even this is just a somewhat subjective thing though. I guess, GENERALLY, outshooting your opponent is a good thing if we have pooled data from the entire league, because you'd have enough 'N's to result in more goals for. However, there are going to be numerous teams that make the playoffs getting out-shot or dont make the playoffs while out-shooting. It's just not that valuable IMHO. In fact, I think a strong case could be made that poor teams take numerous shots from the perimeter because it's all they can muster. Alternatively, those Pittsburgh Penguins teams of some years back would have 19 to 25 shots on goal in a game, and routinely put up 4 or 5 goals, because their shot quality was extremely high. And without looking, I suspect their Corsi was pretty poor. I have no idea what the worst Corsi is among Stanley Cup Champions, but the Penguins are my wild-azz-guess.

 

[Bleedred]

The Devils better hope so.

Even this is just a somewhat subjective thing though. I guess, GENERALLY, outshooting your opponent is a good thing if we have pooled data from the entire league, because you'd have enough 'N's to result in more goals for. However, there are going to be numerous teams that make the playoffs getting out-shot or dont make the playoffs while out-shooting. It's just not that valuable IMHO. In fact, I think a strong case could be made that poor teams take numerous shots from the perimeter because it's all they can muster. Alternatively, those Pittsburgh Penguins teams of some years back would have 19 to 25 shots on goal in a game, and routinely put up 4 or 5 goals, because their shot quality was extremely high. And without looking, I suspect their Corsi was pretty poor. I have no idea what the worst Corsi is among Stanley Cup Champions, but the Penguins are my wild-azz-guess.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it were the 09 Penguins, since Bylsma’s system was like that.

Last year they weren’t that great either, they rode their talent and goaltending, but the 2016 Pens were unbelievable. They were outshooting and outplaying other strong teams like TBL and the Sharks. I was impressed with the 2016 Pens.

The Pens are usually one of the higher shooting teams though, as far as shooting percentage goes. They have a lot of guys who sustain higher shooting percentages, year after the year.

 

[billingtons ghost]

The Devils better hope so.

Even this is just a somewhat subjective thing though. I guess, GENERALLY, outshooting your opponent is a good thing if we have pooled data from the entire league, because you'd have enough 'N's to result in more goals for. However, there are going to be numerous teams that make the playoffs getting out-shot or dont make the playoffs while out-shooting. It's just not that valuable IMHO. In fact, I think a strong case could be made that poor teams take numerous shots from the perimeter because it's all they can muster. Alternatively, those Pittsburgh Penguins teams of some years back would have 19 to 25 shots on goal in a game, and routinely put up 4 or 5 goals, because their shot quality was extremely high. And without looking, I suspect their Corsi was pretty poor. I have no idea what the worst Corsi is among Stanley Cup Champions, but the Penguins are my wild-azz-guess.

So the thing I keep asking myself is: Aren't we supposed to be a more skilled team? If that is so, with more skill shouldn't our shooting % go up significantly? If that's so, what is wrong with winning games in which you are outshot?

I think there is a separate stats thread for all of this, and some mod should move it...

 

[My3Sons]

So the thing I keep asking myself is: Aren't we supposed to be a more skilled team? If that is so, with more skill shouldn't our shooting % go up significantly? If that's so, what is wrong with winning games in which you are outshot?

I think there is a separate stats thread for all of this, and some mod should move it...

Styles make fights as the saying goes. A good trapped bag team may be content to let the other team have all the ice they want in non-threatening areas and maybe the attacking team takes a number of outside shots but the trapping team counterattack’s and has a smaller number of big quality chances. That’s a valid strategy and the team will maybe have bad Corsi numbers but the heat charts for that team will look good. I think the current Devils are more skilled than last year’s team but despite the good start I’m sure Shero would be the first one to tell you this team remains a work in progress and here are clearly flaws. For example, Boyle and Zajac right now are 50% of the centers but one is fresh off injury and the other fresh off a serious illness and neither is where they will be once they are completely over their injury/ treatment. Plus they are old school players who are a bit out of step with Shero’s vision of the team. Then look at RW2. STAFFORD has somewhat exceeded expectations but he’s still just a stop gap. We all have expressed varying insights into the defensive personnel issues and team play on defense. For now I think we have to be happy the team has enough energy that it finds ways to win and to enjoy the success of the young players since better days are ahead for them. It’s definitely a mixed bag and you raise a valid point but I think the blind optimism will be tempered as the season wears on and the team finds its level. Hopefully NJ played above .500 the rest of the way and has a playoff shot. My guess is that only at the end of the season will we be able to look back and see what the stats tell us. Really hard to extrapolate too much in real time. Cheers and let’s hope the young players continue to develop and they are ready to go when the team has a young LD1 and defensive depth.

 

[glenwo2]

Favorite part of the game aside from the win is when Santini(?) absolutely mauled Staal behind Cory's net.

 

[glenwo2]

Ugly win, but enjoyable nonetheless. I took a friend of mine who'd never been to a hockey game or really watched hockey and he had a blast (probably more likely to become a Wild fan, not surprisingly). There were a handful of Devils fans in the building and a few others in our section...nice to have some folks to celebrate with.

Bratt's elusiveness is really something to watch. MN players were lining him up for hits all night, and the majority of the time he'd just find a little seam or roll off them and maintain possession of the puck. Hischier, on the other hand, really needs to get stronger or work on picking his spots better. He leaves himself exposed a lot. Usually he ends up making a defender look silly in the process, but he took his fair share of punishment.

I thought Zacha played a solid game, at least in the second and third (no one on the Devils was good in the first). Nice to see a good bounce back from Henrique as well.

Gotta hand it to the MN folks- pretty solid crowd for a Monday night game vs an out of conference opponent. Glad the Devils didn't give them much to cheer about it at the end, though!

They blew a 2-goal lead late to them. I'd say that gave the crowd there plenty to cheer about.

Good thing the Devils were able to get MOORE goals in OT.

 

[Alex NJD]

Favorite part of the game aside from the win is when Santini(?) absolutely mauled Staal behind Cory's net.

Pretty sure that was Sevs not Santini

 

[mtnet]

I think Severson did the maul job on Staal, and yes it was entertaining =)

 

[glenwo2]

Pretty sure that was Sevs not Santini

That's why I put a question mark 'cause I don't remember who it was. Thanks.

That was FUN to watch.

I wish someone made a gif of that.

I'd watch it all day.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

I guess it' worth being happy that they scored 4 on a very good goalie and defense despite it being probably their worst game of the year. I guess that is encouraging.

 

[VoidCreature]

I don't see Marek Zidlicky with Butcher, he was more of a high risk player. Butcher is young, but his D-zone play is really solid. He's making Lovejoy look serviceable. I'd liken his upside to a more offensively gifted prime Greene. 50+ points, steady play, makes his partner better.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

I don't see Marek Zidlicky with Butcher, he was more of a high risk player. Butcher is young, but his D-zone play is really solid. He's making Lovejoy look serviceable. I'd liken his upside to a more offensively gifted prime Greene. 50+ points, steady play, makes his partner better.

I'm an avid LJ hater, but I think he is the one allowing Butcher to thrive at the moment. He has actually been decent the last couple games.

 

[The Devil In I]

I don't see Marek Zidlicky with Butcher, he was more of a high risk player. Butcher is young, but his D-zone play is really solid. He's making Lovejoy look serviceable. I'd liken his upside to a more offensively gifted prime Greene. 50+ points, steady play, makes his partner better.

Zidlicky isn't a good comparison stylistically, because that guy was crazy good on his edges walking the blueline to open up lanes and escaping defensive pressure. But I think it fits pretty well in terms of impact and value around the league.

A prime Greene that puts up 50+ points is like a top 10-15 defenseman in the league, that's pretty damn lofty goals.

 

[Zippy316]

I'm an avid LJ hater, but I think he is the one allowing Butcher to thrive at the moment. He has actually been decent the last couple games.

They compliment each other well.

Butcher does a great job of breaking up plays and getting the puck out of the zone quickly. Lovejoy struggles with the latter which is where Butcher helps him out. Butcher's prone to getting exposed at times due to his size/skating and Lovejoy usually does a good job of mitigating his partner's breakdowns in the defensive zone.

Zidlicky isn't a good comparison stylistically, because that guy was crazy good on his edges walking the blueline to open up lanes and escaping defensive pressure. But I think it fits pretty well in terms of impact and value around the league.

A prime Greene that puts up 50+ points is like a top 10-15 defenseman in the league, that's pretty damn lofty goals.

I was talking about impact. They do it in different ways, but Butcher should have the same puck-moving and offense-generating impact Zidlicky had.

 

[VoidCreature]

Zidlicky isn't a good comparison stylistically, because that guy was crazy good on his edges walking the blueline to open up lanes and escaping defensive pressure. But I think it fits pretty well in terms of impact and value around the league.

A prime Greene that puts up 50+ points is like a top 10-15 defenseman in the league, that's pretty damn lofty goals.

Butcher has more points than any rookie defenceman in team history to this point in their career. Only Sheldon Souray had a better +/-. He's 9th in TOI.

Devils defenseman through their first 20 games sorted by points;

Butcher, 2 G, 16 P, +7
Niedermayer, 1G, 11 P, -2
Gelinas, 2G, 11 P, -3
Rafalski, 1G, 10 P, +3

In the last 30 years, one defenceman had more points as a rookie through 20 games. One. Kevin Shattenkirk. Butcher has the same number of points as Lidstrom did through his first 20, more than fellow college standouts like Torey Krug and Justin Schultz, more than Hall of Famers like Brian Leetch and Rob Blake.

He has the highest points/60 of any defenceman in any season since the stat started being tracked. Yes, more than Erik Karlsson's best season. It's more than double what Karlsson put up as a rookie.

Butcher, 3.01
Karlsson's best (this season), 2.89
Karlsson rookie, 1.34

Comparing him to Greene is hedging. He has Norris potential on offense alone.

 

[severian]

Butcher has more points than any rookie defenceman in team history to this point in their career. Only Sheldon Souray had a better +/-. He's 9th in TOI.

Devils defenseman through their first 20 games sorted by points;

Butcher, 2 G, 16 P, +7
Niedermayer, 1G, 11 P, -2
Gelinas, 2G, 11 P, -3
Rafalski, 1G, 10 P, +3

In the last 30 years, one defenceman had more points as a rookie through 20 games. One. Kevin Shattenkirk. Butcher has the same number of points as Lidstrom did through his first 20, more than fellow college standouts like Torey Krug and Justin Schultz, more than Hall of Famers like Brian Leetch and Rob Blake.

He has the highest points/game of any defenceman in any season since the stat started being tracked. Yes, more than Erik Karlsson's best season. It's more than double what Karlsson put up as a rookie.

Butcher, 3.01
Karlsson's best (this season), 2.89
Karlsson rookie, 1.34

Comparing him to Greene is hedging. He has Norris potential on offense alone.

His ceiling is Shattenkirk. Guy can't skate like Karlson or Niedermayer and he's just not going to be Lidstrom.

 

[The Devil In I]

Butcher has more points than any rookie defenceman in team history to this point in their career. Only Sheldon Souray had a better +/-. He's 9th in TOI.

Devils defenseman through their first 20 games sorted by points;

Butcher, 2 G, 16 P, +7
Niedermayer, 1G, 11 P, -2
Gelinas, 2G, 11 P, -3
Rafalski, 1G, 10 P, +3

In the last 30 years, one defenceman had more points as a rookie through 20 games. One. Kevin Shattenkirk. Butcher has the same number of points as Lidstrom did through his first 20, more than fellow college standouts like Torey Krug and Justin Schultz, more than Hall of Famers like Brian Leetch and Rob Blake.

He has the highest points/game of any defenceman in any season since the stat started being tracked. Yes, more than Erik Karlsson's best season. It's more than double what Karlsson put up as a rookie.

Butcher, 3.01
Karlsson's best (this season), 2.89
Karlsson rookie, 1.34

Comparing him to Greene is hedging. He has Norris potential on offense alone.

I think it's possible he ends up being a 50 points guy, but not a guarantee. The big thing missing from these stats is context. I think in a couple years we'll look back at this season as an inflated scoring season. For two reasons. First, and most important, the increase in PPs due to the insane crack down on hooking calls at the start of the season. And second is it's an expansion year, so the talent pool is, slightly, diluted compared to usual.

 

[glenwo2]

BTW, I think it was already mentioned but didn't Rico get a Gordie Howe Hat Trick with a Goal, an assist, and a fight?

Or did those incidents involving the Wild players not count as fights?

 

[VoidCreature]

I think it's possible he ends up being a 50 points guy, but not a guarantee. The big thing missing from these stats is context. I think in a couple years we'll look back at this season as an inflated scoring season. For two reasons. First, and most important, the increase in PPs due to the insane crack down on hooking calls at the start of the season. And second is it's an expansion year, so the talent pool is, slightly, diluted compared to usual.

That's the case for every defenseman in the league right now, and Butcher is outperforming all of them.

 

[Blackjack]

His ceiling is Shattenkirk. Guy can't skate like Karlson or Niedermayer and he's just not going to be Lidstrom.

I think he's an excellent skater. Straight line speed is not everything, and I've seen him use his edges to escape pressure many times. Butcher is not afraid to take a risk to make an outlet pass or keep the zone rather than chipping the puck or backing off the blue line, and that's what's needed in the NHL today.

 

[Bleedred]

I think the problem with Boyle is that in his absence, he was effectively replaced by someone who (unexpectedly) has not only been an effective fill-in for the role, but has been better than Boyle and much better than I expected even Boyle to be, and universes better than I ever expected this guy to be. If you want me to eat crow on someone, I'll eat some for Coleman. I still don't see much there, as far as ability to put up a significant amount of points, but he's been a better version of Boyle.

Now for some reason, Hynes doesn't wanna use both on the same line or play one of them at wing, so what you get is Boyle as the 3C and playing with guys like Henrique, Zacha, and others that we depend on more for scoring something. Now if he were playing with Coleman and Gibbons or something, those are guys we don't rely on for offense, even though Gibbons is ironically the team's leading goal scorer right now.

 

[Blackjack]

He has the highest points/game of any defenceman in any season since the stat started being tracked. Yes, more than Erik Karlsson's best season. It's more than double what Karlsson put up as a rookie.

Butcher, 3.01
Karlsson's best (this season), 2.89
Karlsson rookie, 1.34

Comparing him to Greene is hedging. He has Norris potential on offense alone.

When you say points/game, is that points per 60 minutes?