So much for player and organizational rankings...

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by leafaholix*, Oct 1, 2004.

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  1. leafaholix*

    leafaholix* Guest

    In 2000...

    The Avs defense was rated like so...

    1. Alex Riazantsev - 8
    2. Agris Saviels - 6
    3. Rick Berry - 6
    4. Kurt Sauer - 6
    5. Dan Smith - 6
    6. Ben Storey - 5
    7. Brian White - 4
    8. William Magnuson - 4
    9. Sanny Lindstrom - 4
    10. John-Michael Liles - 3

    The Hawks had 30 players ranked ahead of a 24 year old Tyler Arnason, including...

    2. Reto von Arx, LW
    7. Ty Jones, RW
    8. Jonas Nordqvist, C
    9. Nolan Baumgartner, D
    10. Jeff Paul, D
    11. Dimitri Levinski, LW
    13. Dmitri Tolkunov, D
    14. Nathan Perrot, RW
    15. Michel Larocque, G
    16. Jeff Maund, G
    17. Erasmo Saltarelli, G
    18. Chris Herperger, RW
    19. Geoff Peters, C
    20. Mike Souza, LW
    21. Stepan Mokhov, D
    22. Jonas Elofsson, D
    23. Jari Viukola, C
    24. Casey Hankinson, LW
    25. Jason Hamilton, D
    26. Marty Wilford, D
    27. Arne Ramholt, D
    28. Scott Balan, D
    29. Olli Malmivaara, D
    30. Alexander Barkunov

    The Sabres were ranked as the 4th best system with the likes of...

    Barret Heisten - 8 (what?)
    Artem Kriukov - 8 (what?)
    Brian Campbell - 8 (what?)
    Norm Milley - 7 (what?)
    Mike Zigomanis - 7 (what?)
    Jaroslav Kristek - 7 (who?)
    Gerard Dicaire - 7 (what?)

    The Montreal Canadians had many future stars coming up, led by...

    Andrei Markov - 9 (potential superstar... ?)
    Eric Chouinard - 8 (top forward)
    Mathieu Garon - 8
    Alexander Buturlin - 8 (top forward... ?)

    The Ottawa Senators had a few surprises...

    Petr Schastlivy - 7 (#2 ranked prospect)
    Simon Lajeunesse - 6
    Mathieu Chouinard - 6
    Martin Prusek - 4

    The Leafs...

    Jeff Farkas - 8 (what?)
    Brad Boyes - 8 (hmm...)
    Adam Mair - 8 (rrrright)
    Konstantin Kalmikov - 7 (didn't make the cut on CBC's new reality show)
    Don MacLean - 7 (career minor leaguer)
    Mihail Travnicek - 7 (0 NHL games)
    Mikael Hakansson - 7 (0 NHL games)
    Jonathan Zion - 7 (ECHL regular)

    The New York Rangers...

    Organizational Ranking: 8

    Produced a total of 3 NHL players (Lundmark, Brendl, Kloucek?).

    Atlanta's top prospects...

    Dany Heatley - 8
    Zdenek Blatny - 8
    Tomi Kallio - 8
    Luke Sellars - 7
    Ilja Nikulin - 7
    Rob Zepp - 7

    ...
    Garnett Exelby - 4

    Our Stanley Cup champs had six players rated 8's...

    Sheldon Keefe
    Dmitri Afanasenkov
    Ruslan Zainullin
    Brad Richards
    Kristian Kudroc
    Nikita Alexeev

    The #1 ranked organization in 2001...

    The Pittsburgh Penguins:

    - Kris Beech
    - Konstantin Koltsov
    - Brooks Orpik
    - Colby Armstrong
    - Michal Sivek
    - Ryan Malone (not mentioned on OR's list of notables, ranked #19)

    The #28 ranked organizaton in 2001...

    The New York Islanders:

    - Raffi Torres
    - Juraj Kolnik
    - Justin Mapleloft
    - Mattias Weinhandl
    - Trent Hunter
    - Rick DiPietro (not mentioned on OR's list of notables)

    The #29 ranked organization in 2001...

    The Detroit Red Wings:

    - Henrik Zetterberg
    - Pavel Datsyuk (not mentioned on OR's list of notables)
    - Niklas Kronwall
    - Jason Williams
    - Tomas Kopecky
    - Sean Avery (not mentioned on OR's list of notables)
    - Igor Grigorenko (not mentioned on OR's list of notables)

    Other not-so-great rankings...

    4. Tampa Bay (Alexeev, Svitov, Keefe, Kudroc, Mathieu Biron)
    7 Phoenix (Kolanos, Sjostrom, Safronov, Zainullin, Taffe)
    9. Buffalo (Noronen, Miller, Campbell, Kriukov, Novotny)
    13. New York (Lundmark, Blackburn, Novak, Mottau, Heisten)

    Point is... don't take player and organizational rankings seriously.
     
  2. cstu

    cstu Registered User

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    Hindsight is 20/20......but interesting read nonetheless.
     
  3. Kasparov*

    Kasparov* Guest

    good idea for a post.....
     
  4. Gwyddbwyll

    Gwyddbwyll Registered User

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    ............and guys like Khabibulin go in the 9th round, bypassing 30 NHL scouting networks. Does that mean they dont take their rankings seriously?

    Enjoyable reading certainly but it doesnt prove what you clearly want it to.
     
  5. Atlas

    Atlas Registered User

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    Alex Riazantsev was Caps property last I knew. He's been playing very well in Russia and has a chance to make the NHL. Especially with the terrible defensive core in D.C. right now.


    But your point is a good one. We overrate prospects. It's like guys overrating how beautiful their girlfriends/wives will be in 5 years. We can't help it and we're often wrong.
     
  6. Amen evil king

    Amen evil king Registered User

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    Heh, after seeing that rating for Markov I looked him up on HockeyDB to see how his RSL stats were, and found this interesting roster:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0019322000.html

    All in all there are 13 Alex's on that one roster; 6 Alexander's and 7 Alexei's. :amazed:

    Pretty much confirms the theory that communism stifles creativity doesn't it?
     
  7. Prucha73

    Prucha73 Guest


    Yes there is a major obsession with the name Alexander in Russia, probably at least a quarter of males there are named Alexander.
     
  8. DuklaNation

    DuklaNation Registered User

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    It proves that the vast majority of prospects have little impact in the NHL.
     
  9. loadie

    loadie Official Beer Taster Sponsor

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    A good read, and shows how hard it is to rank prospects.
     
  10. Volcanologist

    Volcanologist Used Register

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    :lol:
     
  11. Marshall

    Marshall Hi beat writers!

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    Good, grounding post.
     
  12. Big McLargehuge

    Big McLargehuge Registered User

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    You mention Koltsov, Orpik, and Armstrong is if they were bad or something...

    Beech hasn't developed like wanted and Sivek got a major case of homesickness, that mixed with injuries caused his NHL career to get sidelined. If he had his head on straight I have no doubt that he'd be a NHL regular, he has the talent, but I doubt he'll ever play in North America again.
     
  13. Vlad The Impaler

    Vlad The Impaler Registered User

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    Ratings were a joke on HF a few years ago. It's been much better lately. Some of the former team editors were just plain moronic.

    There's been a major overhaul in that department. The people in charge right now I much prefer. The chain of command makes more sense. And on top of that, the new rating system (while not perfect) is an improvement and should make for more realistic, clearer ratings.
     
  14. montreal

    montreal Go Habs Go

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    I don't think having Garon as an 8 is that far off base, he just hasn't had the chance to play a lot yet. If the NHL ever starts up, Kings fans will likely be very happy with him, imo. Markov as a 9 is a bit high, but he was also named the top defensmen in the RSL twice, so I can see why the writer would have him that high, as I'm sure I would have too back then.

    But to be fair to all writers, hindsight is 20/20 and it's downright impossible to predict what kind of impact or development a player will have in 2-5 years. I try and just look at what the prospects strength and weaknesses are, as I find that's what's most important to the casual fan, as I first came to HF to get info on the more obscure prospects that I had never really heard of or seen play. I wasn't really concerned with what number some guy or girl put next their name, but what kind of game they played, what kind of team/league did they play for, how was their progression/development going. I'm not saying ranking players is a waste of time, cause I'll likely get rocks hurled at me and I don't think it is, but when your talking about potential it's based off opinions and all opinions can vary widely since it's not an extact science.

    Lots of writers work very hard, but how can someone really know what's to come of a player four years from now? It's fun for the readers to see where their prospects stand against one another, and it's fun for the writers, or at least I really enjoy do it, but to go back and try and put down writers from the past based on their opinions is childish to me. No kidding many will be way off. It's very hard to keep track of 40+ prospects and get to see them play on a consistent basis unless your getting paid to do so and paid well since the travel would be costly.

    If I had put Michael Ryder at an 8 two years ago, I would have been laughed at and called another Hab homer overrating their prospects again. But the reality is that I had no idea he would end up scoring 25 goals in his rookie year in the NHL. After his 2nd demotion to the ECHL, I figured he was done, although at that time our prospect depth was thin, I figured his skating would hold him back until I saw him make the ECHL all star team and go on a tear in the AHL after his recall. Even then I never would have said he'd be the top rookie scorer in the NHL. I had big question marks on Mike Ribeiro as well, as I figured his lack of strength, foot speed and skating would hinder him from being a top line center. I thought he was outstanding in the Q, and good in the AHL, but I never thought he would be successful in the NHL with his flawes. That's how it goes.
     
  15. looooob

    looooob Registered User

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    i think all of that is understood. I'm not sure the thread starter was really trying to slam the work of people from 4 years ago, simply reminding folks to keep current rankings in perspective :dunno:
     
  16. montreal

    montreal Go Habs Go

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    You could be right, and if so then my bad. But I took it a different way. Guess Im defensive of anything Hab related.
     
  17. Slats432

    Slats432 Registered User

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    This post pretty much says it all. :bow: Dan.
     
  18. Vlad The Impaler

    Vlad The Impaler Registered User

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    That may be true as of now but if you've interacted with writers four years ago, you know it was not so true back then.

    I sure do.

    And yeah, hindsight is 20/20 and all that but some of those ratings were spectacularly wrong when they were written.

    I agree with you that nobody should expect 100% accuracy but it was more lacking back then. Also, writers were not applying ratings equally. HF has made a lot of progress and contrary to what you think, there's nothing childish about this.

    I like to think that criticisms have helped HF improve over time. There is way more consistency, less bias and more fact-checking right now. Anybody remember when an editor wrote an article on Desrochers being moved from goaltending to defesne and Safronov moving from defense to wing?

    HF benefits from years of experience just like any person or organization. I think it's really cool to see the improvements. And I don't think this is the end of it.
     
  19. trahans99

    trahans99 Registered User

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    Where was SCOTT KELMAN on the Phoenix Coyotes depth chart back then? He was drafted 15th overall in 1999!
     
  20. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    Let me see if I have it ..

    So what you are saying is ....

    Criticism while it is unappreciated and unwanted and frowned upon yet it makes the site better overall..

    and the other moral is that Prospect Evaluation and Potential measurement is not an exact Science and even if done by Professionals you will not be able to set your watch by the Accuracy of the predictions .....
     
  21. nomorekids

    nomorekids The original, baby

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    And what you're saying is...

    Arbitrary capitalization Is an effective Means to confuse the Reader? ;)
     
  22. leafaholix*

    leafaholix* Guest

    I agree 100%, but the point is that the numbers put next to a player or where your favourite organization ranks means nothing. So don't get a hard on when your team is ranked in the top 10, because history shows us that HF.com has a very small percentage of accuracy with things like this.

    As for going back in time to put down writers, I don't think I've mentioned any writers in this thread. The writers work represents HF.com, so this thread represents the accuracy of the website. And when I see fans of certain teams being so sure of their organization and future while discrediting a team ranked in the 20's, I think it's very reasonable to bring up the websites credibility in ranking teams and players.

    Now, the individual scouting reports on the players (strengths, weaknesses, potential) seems to be more credible.
     
  23. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    In fact it Seldom ever Works...

    Its like throwing a fishing LINE in the Water with a hook but no Bait ..

    Seldom catches anything, most leave it completely ALONE, but every so often some Unaware Fish gets Caught .. :D

    and this time its a pretty blue one even ..

    However In this case it was nothing more than a post in this thread to tell the Author of the thread that I have read his work and I appreciated it as usual ...

    Now get off my Hook .... I'm looking for a bigger Fish..
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2004
  24. Slats432

    Slats432 Registered User

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    OK...now let's not continue this in every thread :D , although you wanted to make a point of inaccuracy in your post, I will grant you on several points.(Rankings can be off, players can be misjudged, some writers are stronger than others, but regardless of how good a writer is, mistakes are made.)

    But, this all comes down to your and The Messenger's insistance that the Leafs are ranked too low at 29. No more, no less. The above quote says one thing in a paraphrased manner.

    I like criticism that is constructive. I get it all the time from the Nashville board. Guy's fans on the Oiler board ride him on things all the time. But constructive criticism hardly ever starts with "My team..."
     
  25. Stop whining if your team is ranked lower than you want it to be, because we don't care!
     
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