Slovakia Relegated - What Happened?

[sticknrink]

What happened?

Juraj Simek.

Bow down.

 

[Sanderson]

If Germany would lose to Switzerland and Belarus, while Slovakia gets a win against the latter, wouldn't they be in a three-way tie?
All three would have three points, it would go down to goals differential between those three. With a high win against Belarus, Slovakia could be able to stay on top.

Or is there something I am missing?

 

[MeHateHe]

Slovakia isn't officially relegated yet. If they beat Belarus and Germany loses both their games, you could still have a three-way tie with three points each. It would then come down to the goal-differential.

 

[Panopticon]

Slovakia isn't officially relegated yet. If they beat Germany and Belarus beats Germany (and Switzerland beats Belarus), you could still have a three-way tie with three points each. It would then come down to the goal-differential.

What? They already lost to Germany...

Even if they win their last game against Belarus, they will still only beat Belarus. They can only gain three points and Germany has three points already and beat them in the head-to-head game and Switzerland already has 6 points.

 

[Zine]

Yeah, but if the Slovak men's team is not getting refiilled with upcoming players from the junior program, how much success can it have in the future?

Slovakia currently has about 22 NHLers and many of them are aging. By 2010 Olympics, Satan and Demitra will both be 36 years old, Chara will be 33, Hossa 31, Gaborik 28 and Handzus 33..

If there are no adequate replacements for these guys, I don't know how much longer we'll see Slovakia at the top level although I hope I'm wrong..

The key to continued success in U-20/U-18 tourneys having good talent depth (something Slovakia doesn't have) However, I still think they're producing enough top end talent to compete against the other top 7 nations -- certainly more than Switzerland, Belarus, Germany, etc.

 

[MeHateHe]

What? They already lost to Germany...

Even if they win their last game against Belarus, they will still only beat Belarus. They can only gain three points and Germany has three points already and beat them in the head-to-head game and Switzerland already has 6 points.

My mistake. Check the edited post.

Nonetheless, if it's a three-way tie (Belarus, Germany and Slovakia), then head-to-head results are no longer the deciding factor. (In this scenario, Germany would have beaten Slovakia, Slovakia would have beaten Belarus and Belarus would have beaten Germany. It's a wash.) So it comes down to goal differential in games involving the tied teams. It's an lot of "ifs" but no one is mathematically eliminated yet. Switzerland is assured of not being relegated; that's the only definite of the relegation round.

 

[MeHateHe]

To be clear, finally:
Three games remain
Germany plays Belarus and Switzerland.
Slovakia has one last game against Belarus.

Right now SUI has six points, GER three and BEL and SVK are pointless.

If the following scenario plays out:
BEL beats GER (BEL +3)
SVK beats BEL (SVK +3)
SUI beats GER (SUI +3)

SUI would have 9 points
BEL, SUI and SVK would each have 3.

Right?
So SVK is not yet mathematically eliminated.

 

[Panopticon]

Right?
So SVK is not yet mathematically eliminated.

Yes, that's right.

 

[Garl]

Yeah, but if the Slovak men's team is not getting refiilled with upcoming players from the junior program, how much success can it have in the future?

Slovakia currently has about 22 NHLers and many of them are aging. By 2010 Olympics, Satan and Demitra will both be 36 years old, Chara will be 33, Hossa 31, Gaborik 28 and Handzus 33..

If there are no adequate replacements for these guys, I don't know how much longer we'll see Slovakia at the top level although I hope I'm wrong..

That's how I see their team:

Budaj-26
Halak-24
Krizhan-29

Chara-32
Valabik-23
Meszaros-24
Visnovsky-33
Sekera-23
Mezei-29
Jurcina-26

Marian Hossa-30
Gaborik-28
Handzus-33
Marsel Hossa-28
Nagy-30
Radivojevic-29
Demitra-35
Satan-35
Ruzicka-24
Kopecky-27
Kolnik-29
Zagrapan-23
Svatos-27

Some great talents for sure.

 

[MOGiLNY]

I guess you guys are right, this team will still be among the men's best..

 

[BCCHL inactive]

What? They already lost to Germany...

Even if they win their last game against Belarus, they will still only beat Belarus. They can only gain three points and Germany has three points already and beat them in the head-to-head game and Switzerland already has 6 points.

If....

SUI beats GER in regulation
BLR beats GER in regulation
SVK beats BLR in regulation

...That puts SVK, GER and BLR in a 3-way tie. You can't use head-to-head in a 3-way tie, thus goal differential makes the decision.

However, Germany is +2 while both Belarus and Slovakia are -3. Slovakia needs to beat Belarus by at least 4 goals, and even then, they need help. Belarus needs to win to help Slovakia, so them getting shutout by Germany eliminates Slovakia.

Here is how Slovakia can stay, with all results in regulation time...

SUI 1-0 GER (Puts GER to +1)
BLR 1-0 GER (Puts GER to Even, BLR to -2)
SVK 4-0 BLR (Puts SVK to +1, BLR to -6)

Slovakia isn't gone yet, but they need a miracle.

 

[MeHateHe]

Not quite. Take another look at the rules. The goal differential only includes games between the tied teams. Switzerland will not be among the tied teams. So the Switzerland-Slovakia game is irrelevant to the tie-breaking formula as is the Switzerland-Belarus game and the Switzerland-Germany game. Germany is +2 right now only because they beat Slovakia by 2. And for the sake of tie-breaking Slovakia is -2. Belarus is even because they haven't played Germany or Slovakia.

If you don't believe me, have a look at the Div 1A standings. Denmark won the tournament despite having a worse goal differential than Latvia. Their goal differential in games between themselves, Latvia and Ukraine was better than that of Latvia and Ukraine in those three games.

Pedantic? Yes. But accurate nonetheless.

 

[BCCHL inactive]

Ok...here is a revamped scenario...

Here is how Slovakia can stay, with all results in regulation time...

SUI beats GER
BLR 1-0 GER (Puts GER to +1, BLR to -1)
SVK 6-0 BLR (Puts SVK to +2, BLR to -5)

 

[Jazz]

Ok...here is a revamped scenario...

Here is how Slovakia can stay, with all results in regulation time...

SUI beats GER
BLR 1-0 GER (Puts GER to +1, BLR to -1)
SVK 6-0 BLR (Puts SVK to +2, BLR to -5)

Anyone want to buy lottery tickets?

Anyways, Germany plays Belarus tomorrow morning (well, morning Vancouver time), so we'll probably see Slovakia's final nail on the coffin then....

 

[MeHateHe]

Well, to be persnickety about it, Van's a bit off. It doesn't require a six goal victory for SVK over BLR, because SVK is currently only -2. Theoretically, a three-goal win could do it. (It would leave SVK and GER with +1 and BLR with -2.) The third tie-breaking criteria is highest number of goals scored. So if Slovakia suddenly discovers their offence, they could avoid relegation.

But I'm not willing to risk my precious vcash on the likelihood that they're playing in the Czech Republic next December.

 

[Slitty]

The bigger the margin of victory in the Swiss defeat of Germany, if such is to occur at all, the more beneficial it is for Slovakia.

 

[MeHateHe]

No, because only games between the three tied teams is counted in the tie-breaking procedure. The Swiss will not be involved in a three-way tie so the score (assuming they beat Germany) of that game will be inconsequential to the tie breaking formula.

The tie-breaking formula is here:
http://www.iihf.com/education/pdf/2006_Sport_Regulations.pdf

 

[Slitty]

No, because only games between the three tied teams is counted in the tie-breaking procedure. The Swiss will not be involved in a three-way tie so the score (assuming they beat Germany) of that game will be inconsequential to the tie breaking formula.

The tie-breaking formula is here:
http://www.iihf.com/education/pdf/2006_Sport_Regulations.pdf

Yes, certainly, but would the Swiss blowing-out Germany not be of benefit in case each of Germany, Belarus, and Slovakia end-up with both the same number of points and the same goal differential in games between the aforementioned three teams?

 

[Jazz]

Yes, certainly, but would the Swiss blowing-out Germany not be of benefit in case each of Germany, Belarus, and Slovakia end-up with both the same number of points and the same goal differential in games between the aforementioned three teams?

No, in such a scenario, Germany's negative goal differential vs the Swiss will not apply to the final tie-breaking formula.

It is only the goal differential between the tied teams involved.

 

[Shane]

Interesting that Juraj Simek scored the winning goal.

 

[Slitty]

No, in such a scenario, Germany's negative goal differential vs the Swiss will not apply to the final tie-breaking formula.

It is only the goal differential between the tied teams involved.

I suggest you brush-up on IIHF procedures, particularly "Step 3" of the tie-breaking formula. I am quite certain it is to Slovakia's benefit, if only as precaution against an implausible scenario, for the Swiss to defeat Germany by a large margin. Or am I missing something other than failing to mention the number of goals scored also playing a role?

 

[Jazz]

Yes, certainly, but would the Swiss blowing-out Germany not be of benefit in case each of Germany, Belarus, and Slovakia end-up with both the same number of points and the same goal differential in games between the aforementioned three teams?

No, in such a scenario, Germany's negative goal differential vs the Swiss will not apply to the final tie-breaking formula.

It is only the goal differential between the tied teams involved.

I suggest you brush-up on IIHF procedures, particularly "Step 3" of the tie-breaking formula. I am quite certain it is to Slovakia's benefit, if only as precaution against an implausible scenario, for the Swiss to defeat Germany by a large margin. Or am I missing something other than failing to mention the number of goals scored also playing a role?

My bad - I read your first post too fast and entirely missed the point in blue that would push it to a third tie-break.

But honestly, we are grasping at straws here. Like I mentioned above, we might have a better chance at a lottery ticket.

Like we discussed at the international forum, a demotion might get the Slovak federation to start paying attention to their junior system.....or it might not....

 

[12# Peter Bondra]

Slovakia should be thanking the Czech Republic for their good senior players

because Slovakia does absolutely nothing for its own players. nothing.

Thats just so wrong on so many levels that I wont even respond :.

 

[Douggy]

IMO. each of these four teams is capable of beating eachother in any given game at any level. They all belong in the U20 and its a shame we need to have two of them missing every other year.

Kazakstan, Denmark, France and Norway are all a step below.

The tournament needs 12 teams, or perhaps the relegated and promoted teams should have a tournament in the summer to determine which teams are ACTUALLY promoted and relegated.

 

[MeHateHe]

BLR beat Germany today. If Germany loses to Switzerland and Slovakia beats Belarus by three or more, Slovakia stays up.

If Germany beats Switzerland and Belarus beats Slovakia, then BLR, GER and SUI will be tied with six points each.

What a wild tournament this has been.