Salary Cap: Signing Jacob Trouba Part II

Mortimer Snerd

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Your an excellent poster on here Mort, and make great observations, but I just don't quite agree with you on the value of Trouba. Just like you, I think he's a great young defenceman, that's still developing, with great upside, and would love to see the Jet's sign him, for something reasonable, and that will be Chevy's mindset as well.

I guess you think he's worth quite a bit more than I do, but that will be largely determined by how he plays this year, and the kind of numbers he puts up. He's nowhere in the league of Erik Karlson, or Aron Ekblad in my opinion.

Thing I don't like is the "grandstanding"- the holdout and so forth. If I was his father I'd tell him to sign for $ 6-7 mil per year over 4 years, so he'll have financial security for the rest of his life. After that 4 year period, if he proves he's a top elite defenceman, he can then go for the "mega dollars." Right now though-it's not there.

Don't forget, he's taking a big risk right now- he could break his leg, or crash into the boards and break his neck and be paralysed. I think what's happening with Trouba is largely being orchestrated by agent Kurt Overhart, and I think he's getting bad advice

We'll probably lose him in the long run, just like we did with Keith Thachuk, but I do agree with you, it be great to sign him. He'd be best to pad his bank account now-"for sure" and sign a bridge deal for about 4 years.

:laugh: If you were his father he would probably never have held out and would be signed now for the same deal Scheif got - but ...... Nobody liked the holdout. I'm not sure what you mean by grandstanding. Those things don't enter into the assessment of his market value though.

7 mil x 4 years would = more than 8x8 which is where I put the upper limit. I think this is where you are finding disagreement with posters suggesting higher AAV's. The longer the term, the higher the AAV. You seem to be looking at AAV as being some absolute number, player X is worth 5, player Y is worth 7, etc. It should always be player X is worth 5x4 or 7x8 or whatever the numbers are for that player. There is never a time when you can offer a player a choice between signing 5 mil x4 years or 5 mil x8 years and see those as equivalent offers. The stage the player is at in his career also affects it. A young player will take 5x4 every time and hope to sign another 4 year contract for much more later. An older player will be all over the 8 year offer because he doesn't expect to be that good in 5 years time.

Sorry that got a little long winded. The point is that there are a lot of factors to consider beyond simple AAV.

The mindset will be to sign for something reasonable on all sides. There will be widely differing ideas of what is reasonable.

You concede he is young and still developing. Both sides will have their own idea of where and when he will peak. Chevy needs to weigh that anticipated peak value against the risk of losing him.

If it had been up to me I would have made him an offer he couldn't refuse this off-season - betting on that future peak value. If he refused it, I could have been confident that we would never sign him. I would then have started looking for a trade. Not saying he would have been gone by now. That would depend on the offers.

My offer would have been above what you think he is worth - arguably above what he has demonstrated he is worth. As I said, it would have been a gamble on his future value.

I'm not the GM and you're not his father .... so here we are. :)
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I think you may be confusing our best defenseman with Raffi Torres :confused:.
Trouba's hit on Drai, while high, was no different than hundreds we see on a regular basis, was not penalized and is now being discussed only in retrospect. Trouba needs to tone it down, but is hardly a "predator".
Should we also get rid of Lowry, because of his suspension for a more dangerous boarding incident? How about that predator Malkin, for his hit on Wheeler?
I am a strong proponent of eliminating high hits and reducing concussions, but the league (and its fans) got itself into this mess by allowing such hits over many decades, and lionizing players like Scott Stevens.

Particularly like your last paragraph. The entire 'hockey culture' lionizes it as a 'man's game'. Well, even when toned down it is a man's game. You need to be tough to give and take all that body contact and flying pucks, etc. without going to any extremes of trying to hurt, injure or intimidate.

The concussion issue has long existed but was largely ignored due to a lack of scientific evidence. Well, we have the science now and it is much worse than was even imagined years ago. The culture needs to be changed to eliminate the most dangerous hits. There will still be injuries and concussions but we need to get to the point where they really are accidental.
 

GNP

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:laugh: If you were his father he would probably never have held out and would be signed now for the same deal Scheif got - but ...... Nobody liked the holdout. I'm not sure what you mean by grandstanding. Those things don't enter into the assessment of his market value though.

7 mil x 4 years would = more than 8x8 which is where I put the upper limit. I think this is where you are finding disagreement with posters suggesting higher AAV's. The longer the term, the higher the AAV. You seem to be looking at AAV as being some absolute number, player X is worth 5, player Y is worth 7, etc. It should always be player X is worth 5x4 or 7x8 or whatever the numbers are for that player. There is never a time when you can offer a player a choice between signing 5 mil x4 years or 5 mil x8 years and see those as equivalent offers. The stage the player is at in his career also affects it. A young player will take 5x4 every time and hope to sign another 4 year contract for much more later. An older player will be all over the 8 year offer because he doesn't expect to be that good in 5 years time.

Sorry that got a little long winded. The point is that there are a lot of factors to consider beyond simple AAV.

The mindset will be to sign for something reasonable on all sides. There will be widely differing ideas of what is reasonable.

You concede he is young and still developing. Both sides will have their own idea of where and when he will peak. Chevy needs to weigh that anticipated peak value against the risk of losing him.

If it had been up to me I would have made him an offer he couldn't refuse this off-season - betting on that future peak value. If he refused it, I could have been confident that we would never sign him. I would then have started looking for a trade. Not saying he would have been gone by now. That would depend on the offers.

My offer would have been above what you think he is worth - arguably above what he has demonstrated he is worth. As I said, it would have been a gamble on his future value.

I'm not the GM and you're not his father .... so here we are. :)

Mort- I would have done "exactly" what you said if I was Chevy- made him a great offer this past summer, to determine if he wanted to play here. If he refused, I'd assume he wasn't interested in playing here, and would have lot's of time to deal him

I think Chevy wants to be "convinced" of his value first-"conservative" GM Chevy is, but you can't knock the deals he signed Sheif and Ehlers for-"great deals" We'll see what happens with Trouba in the next 2 years.
 

DeepFrickinValue

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I thought it was a textbook clean hit on Draisatl? Trouba left his feet AFTER contact because of physics.
he was maybe 2 inches off the ground. this is not leaving feet. just momentum.

big hits is trouba's schtick though. keep opposing players on their toes (not leaving feet) when his is on the ice.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I thought it was a textbook clean hit on Draisatl? Trouba left his feet AFTER contact because of physics.

Clearly left his feet to make the hit the way I saw it. I'm not sure about the head contact. Going by memory. Don't have the details close to hand. I recall the primary impact was below the head. I think there was secondary head contact.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Agreed Trouba has thrown his fair share of stupid hits (Stone last year and the one in the preseason) but the Draistial one was fine imo.

Wait - I think it is the pre-season hit I am recalling, not the one to Drai.

I can remember when I could rely on my memory. Or can I?
 

scelaton

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Particularly like your last paragraph. The entire 'hockey culture' lionizes it as a 'man's game'. Well, even when toned down it is a man's game. You need to be tough to give and take all that body contact and flying pucks, etc. without going to any extremes of trying to hurt, injure or intimidate.

The concussion issue has long existed but was largely ignored due to a lack of scientific evidence. Well, we have the science now and it is much worse than was even imagined years ago. The culture needs to be changed to eliminate the most dangerous hits. There will still be injuries and concussions but we need to get to the point where they really are accidental.
Yes, it's very difficult, because the speed and forces inherent in the game are such that any unanticipated hit could cause a concussion, even if the head is not directly impacted. It's a material threat to the game itself (and football too) that we are all struggling with. As fans we mostly LOVE big hits, but are horrified at the potential results. The league has a multi-billion dollar business it wants to preserve, but is now facing the prospect of mega-dollar lawsuits. As for the players, some are predatory, for sure, but most are kids playing a game they love and and trying to stay onside of the line between a game-changing hit and suspendable offense.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Mort- I would have done "exactly" what you said if I was Chevy- made him a great offer this past summer, to determine if he wanted to play here. If he refused, I'd assume he wasn't interested in playing here, and would have lot's of time to deal him

I think Chevy wants to be "convinced" of his value first-"conservative" GM Chevy is, but you can't knock the deals he signed Sheif and Ehlers for-"great deals" We'll see what happens with Trouba in the next 2 years.

Yup.

I hope it goes as Aavco has predicted and he signs just before arbitration.

If he goes through arb then I think we can assume he will go for UFA and start the trade hunt.
 

ps241

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Clearly left his feet to make the hit the way I saw it. I'm not sure about the head contact. Going by memory. Don't have the details close to hand. I recall the primary impact was below the head. I think there was secondary head contact.

I was over on the Oilers board reading their GDT and the majority of their fans didn't have an issue with Trouba's hit at the time.

FWIW
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I was over on the Oilers board reading their GDT and the majority of their fans didn't have an issue with Trouba's hit at the time.

FWIW

Yeah, I was thinking of the wrong incident. There was a hit in pre-season that was bad.
 
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JetsFan815

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I am not saying that the Trouba hit didn't injure Draisaitl or that I have my tin foil hat on but there is something sketchy about this Leon Draisaitl injury situation
 

Asiantuntija

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In my opinion he is pretty overrated player. We could have better option with same money in future.
 

kelsier

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I wonder how motivated he is and how that motivation shows up on his level of game play. If he has no intentions of signing long term with the Jets, then I can just hope they are aware and will act accordingly. Unmotivated player in a team that's trying to reach the playoffs isn't healthy, no matter whether he's really good or not. Perhaps those issues that originally made him ask for a trade are still there and reflecting on his on performance on ice. At some occasions last season he seemed like he should've been the 1D but Buff was always there ahead of him. Now I'm not that sure anymore. Probably not easy to find an ideal trading partner either when there's no long term contract so the team and the player are kind of stuck together. Of course if he has changed his mind and I'm totally out of the loop, feel free to enlighten.
 

FFHockey

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Oct 12, 2015
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I wish we could just trade him already. He may not be a distraction to the team, but he sure is to me damnit!
Now we gotta keep him till next year because of bobblehead night. :D The Jets should have just made Ehlers or Laine the bobblehead and been done with it.

On a serious note, for someone who is playing for a “payday”, he’s not looked like a guy who would command 7 or 8 mil, though still early I know. There’s just something missing in his play...
 

Aavco Cup

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I wish we could just trade him already. He may not be a distraction to the team, but he sure is to me damnit!
Now we gotta keep him till next year because of bobblehead night. :D The Jets should have just made Ehlers or Laine the bobblehead and been done with it.

On a serious note, for someone who is playing for a “payday”, he’s not looked like a guy who would command 7 or 8 mil, though still early I know. There’s just something missing in his play...

He cut his hair short;)
 

Asiantuntija

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Examples?

It all depends how much he is going to ask for his next contract. Everything over 6 million is way too much, even our team loves to pay way too much money for trash players. Enstrom is good example. Trouba has been pretty bad this season, so he doesn't deserve much money. I was expecting him to be our best defender, but Myers has been way better.
 
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Maukkis

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It all depends how much he is going to ask for his next contract. Everything over 6 million is way too much, even our team loves to pay way too much money for trash players. Enstrom is good example. Trouba has been pretty bad this season, so he doesn't deserve much money. I was expecting him to be our best defender, but Myers has been way better.
I wonder if this statement is a half-assed attempt at being humorous.
 

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