Salary Cap: Signing Jacob Trouba Part II

[surixon]

yes of course. assuming 80M cap, the Jets have 25.5M avail.

the key players to sign are Helle, Morrissey, Trouba and Lowry - got to consider their cap hits as well for the following year when Laine, Connor and Wheeler are due.

can you see a situation where those 4 players combine for 20M or under?

The only way is if Morrissey bridges bit that would still leave them around the 19 million mark.

The year after they get another roughly 10 million in space with Myers and Masons deals expiring.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yep but Trouba should not get rewarded for turning down a long term deal in addition Chef is much more crucial to team success. 1c while we have depth in rd. is Myers as good as Trouba? No but it does strengthen our bargaining position while we had no one else who could play 1c.

I never suggested rewarding Trouba for holding out. OTOH, it would be extremely foolish to try and punish for it. He lost pay for the 20 games he held out. Beyond that, you treat him just as though that never happened.

I gave those numbers as a point of reference. I also suggested paying Trouba somewhat less than what Fefe got.

Meantime Chevy and KO either reach an agreement or it goes to arbitration.

 

[Pickle Rick]

We need to get Trouba signed long-term even if we overpay a bit to get it done. The money we are currently paying to our top 6 D-men cannot continue long-term if we want to remain competitive. We can afford bigger contracts to the Top 4 but our 3rd pairing will need to get cheaper to accommodate bigger contracts for the young guys and keep the big boys happy. Looking at the current contracts on D, we have one big contract per year coming off the books for the next 4 years. Enstrom, Myers, Kulikov, Buff all expire one year at a time freeing up money to redistribute. Trouba and Morrisey will be our top pair for the foreseeable future and they deserve contracts that reflect that. Our second pair will include Buff for the next few years and he has shown that he can carry a cheap, good value partner. Assuming Enstrom and Myers leave over the next two years that still leaves Kulikov as a good fit on the second pairing for the next two years or Kulikov can anchor our third pair. Either way, the path to being able to afford big contracts for Trouba and Morrisey is to lean on Poolmans, Nikus, God help us Chiarots, Morrows, maybe Stanley at some point in his life. We won't necessarily be as deep as we are currently but I think having 3 star defenders and 3 cheaper "good enough" defenders will keep us right near the top of contenders through our window.

For funzies, assume cap hits of 7.6 for Buff, 7 for Trouba, and 5 for Morrisey. Then throw in 1.5 Poolman, 1.5 Chiarot, and 900k for Niku and we have 23.5million cap hit for that top 6 just by letting big contracts expire/trade deadline cash-ins instead of the current 27.5 million for our top 6. That gives us an extra 4 million to spend on forwards/Helle even after signing Trouba and Morrisey to long-term deals for big money.

I'm really not that smart and can see this path (with some tweaks) can easily work. I'm sure the really smart guys negotiating the Jets contracts can figure out an even smarter way to redistribute the cap hits year by year. One thing is really apparent, we have a smart guy in Chevy who staggers the contract lengths in a way that always leaves himself a big contract or two coming off the books every season so he has flexibility to make these things work. Smart guy, I trust him to keep himself out of a Black Hawks situation where he's got no flexibility and has to let a couple of guys go every year.

 

[DRW204]

my projection on Trouba is 6.6M on a 8 year deal. 5.4 (S.Jones cap hit) x 2 RFA years and 7M x 6 UFA years.
Morrissey imo should be under 5M, is Brett Pesce %ofCapHit a good comparable?

 

[Adam da bomb]

I never suggested rewarding Trouba for holding out. OTOH, it would be extremely foolish to try and punish for it. He lost pay for the 20 games he held out. Beyond that, you treat him just as though that never happened.

I gave those numbers as a point of reference. I also suggested paying Trouba somewhat less than what Fefe got.

Meantime Chevy and KO either reach an agreement or it goes to arbitration.

I'm not talking about punishing. I'm saying if a comparable player going forward would get 6.5 for ufa and rfa years that's how much they should offer. The last two years for Trouba are a wash and you don't retroactively pay.
If the value according to market works out that way it's a different story and A-ok

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It is extremely difficult to find or draft a #1 RHD, if we let go of Trouba we are gonna have to pay for another one of his caliber, unless you are suggesting to downgrade , which is why I say dumb decision to save $1m. #1RHD>>>>>>>>>>#2C (aging to boot)
If you goal is to sign Stastny , then trade Perrault or Myers or even Little but don’t mess with the #1RHD.
Chevy has been quoted in the past that Chef and Troubs are the young core. I think He will lose a lot more before Trouba and I agree 1000%

It isn't about saving 1 mil. It is about being unable to give every player an extra mil. Therefore you set an upper limit somewhere and pretty much stick to it. Maybe not too rigidly, but close to that limit.

I don't think it is unreasonable for Trouba/KO to start at 8 mil. But if they stick hard to that number you have to proceed accordingly.

IMO, 7 mil is already a bit high for Trouba, so 8 is too high.

It wasn't 'trade Trouba in order to sign Stastny'. It was that trading Trouba opens up some cap space making signing Stastny one possibility. You have to weigh both the benefits of the cap saving and the return vs keeping him at too high a salary.

 

[Evil Little]

This is fantastic news.

Excellent news, if true.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm not talking about punishing. I'm saying if a comparable player going forward would get 6.5 for ufa and rfa years that's how much they should offer. The last two years for Trouba are a wash and you don't retroactively pay.

Yes - fair market value for a player of his calibre and in his contract situation.

In the end, negotiations are a power game. It is all about the relative strengths of the bargaining positions. Each side will start with an offer based on the perceived strength of their position. Then they will meet somewhere in between.

The good news (if true) is that Trouba wants to stay. From that starting point, they should be able to work something out. I still think they may end up at a shorter term and lower AAV. 6x6.25, 5x5.75, even 4x5 might be in the neighbourhood of where they end up.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

And what "solid d-man" do you think is available that can help a contending team like the Jets like Trouba can? I am more interested in using that cap-space to help us contend in the next few years than I am to "keep cap space open". You don't move a guy like Trouba (or Morrissey) to free up cap space. Myers, Chiarot, Kulikov, Little, Perreault are the level of players that you move to free up cap- solid contributors but not core pieces.

Scratch Chiarot off your list. He doesn't make enough to help the cap by moving him. Just the opposite, in fact. Scratch Little, full NMC for the next 2 years. Scratch Kulikov, his contract was a little too large to begin with and with a recurring back injury, he is practically immovable.

That only leaves Myers, who's contract has only 1 more year to go anyway and MP. If we move Perreault and bridge both Morrissey and Connor, we just might get everybody else in under the cap.

It is not about 'keeping cap space open'. It is about getting a little flexibility in cap management going forward.

 

[surixon]

I went and looked at all the dmen in the league who are somewhat in Trouba's caliber and signed in the last three seasons coming off 2 years of bridge contracts:

Trouba Comps
	Cap hit (millions)	Term
Barrie	$ 5.50 7.53% of cap	4 years
DeKyser	$ 5.00 6.85% of cap	6 years
Tanev	$ 4.50 6.10 % of cap	5 years
Spurgeon	$ 5.20 7.11% of cap	4 years
Orlov	$ 5.10 6.80% of cap	6 years
Krug	$ 5.25 7.19% of cap	4 years
Brodie	$ 4.70 6.74% of cap	5 Years
Leddy	$ 5.50 7.97% of cap	6 years
Subban	$ 9.00 13.04 % of cap	8 Years
Ekholm	$ 3.75 5.25% of cap	6 Years
Muzzin	$ 4.00 5.80% of cap	5 Years
Savard	$ 4.25 5.95% of cap	5 years
Bogo	$ 5.14 8.0% of cap	7 Years
Scandella	$ 4.00 5.80% of cap	5 Years
Vatanen	$ 4.88 6.83% cap	4 Years

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Thought I'd revise this post as its applicable. Here is a list of dmen who signed off a two year bridge deal.

The average caphit% is 7.13. That would put the average salary for dmen with an 80 million cap at $5.7 million per season.

If we remove the outlier in Subban and place him at the top of the range at 8% that puts his caphit at 6.4 million per season. Even if the org is feeling generous and offers an extra half % of the cap it puts his cap hit at $6.8 million. I have a hard time seeing how he can argue for much more than 6.5 million there is no comparable that would support that.

 

[Daximus]

I think Troubas camp asks for 7. Chevy goes in at 6 and they settle in the 6.5 range.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

I hope Toth is right and Trouba wants to stay. Even if that is true, I doubt that a deal will happen.

I guess I am still scarred from his holdout.

 

[DRW204]

If we are forced to move Myers I hope the Trouba signing happens pre draft

 

[rubikscube]

Trouba 5 years 7 per is my prediction. I still have my doubts that he wants to be here forever but the next 5 years is good enough for me

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This team finished 2nd in the league and is playing in the Conference Finals right now. Yet you suggest trading Wheeler if he doesn't agree to extend on certain terms. That's insane.

There is a debate to be had about what the contract details for a Wheeler extension should or should not look like, and your opinion on that is definitely reasonable. But in no way should a 114-point conference finalist trade their 90-point captain over a contract disagreement. We're going to have a good chance to win the cup next year, with three key forwards on very cheap contracts for what they bring. That's not a chance you piss away.

There is a time for a franchise when it should be a priority to replace older players with younger players and avoid contracts that could hurt 3-5 years down the line. That time for the Jets was when they consistently finished out of the playoffs. Now is not the time. Now the #1 priority is to win the cup by constructing the best roster you possibly can. Don't trade very good UFA-to-bes just to "recoup" some "value" (magic beans).

"But in no way should a 114-point conference finalist trade their 90-point captain over a contract disagreement". So we should give Wheeler 8 years at 14 mil per season? Obviously not - therefore there is a line somewhere that you don't go beyond. So where do you put that line?

I think the AAV is at 7 mil. I don't think we can afford any more than that, regardless of term. I have no way of determining how long Wheeler will continue to be worth a salary like that. He could last another 7 years. Or he could be past it in 2. How is he going to cope with a loss in speed, especially as the league is getting faster right now?

At 7 mil per, I don't want to be tied to an aging player for too long. I would like to see it kept to 3 years. That is 4 more years from now. I could see going 1 year longer but I would be uncomfortable with that.

If you set your parameters for what the contract needs to look like, you stick to them. If the player won't accept your best offer what are you supposed to do? You trade him and get what value you can.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yup it will be interesting to see how it plays out. My strategy is to go long term with the core pieces if possible and then go short term and cheap on the depth. I feel that we have the system depth to move on from guys like Armia/Tanev etc if they demand too much dough.

Do you really think that Armia and Tanev will be asking for too much? I expect them to accept very affordable contracts.

 

[mcpw]

"But in no way should a 114-point conference finalist trade their 90-point captain over a contract disagreement". So we should give Wheeler 8 years at 14 mil per season? Obviously not - therefore there is a line somewhere that you don't go beyond. So where do you put that line?

I haven't put much thought into that yet, as I feel it will depend on other decisions that will probably be made before Wheeler extends.

If you set your parameters for what the contract needs to look like, you stick to them. If the player won't accept your best offer what are you supposed to do? You trade him and get what value you can.

No, you let him play out his contract and try to win a cup while he's still a 90-point captain making $5.6M. This team should beyond the stage of caring too much about "value", as seen in the Stastny trade. This is a contender. I know you talk about dynasties and refilling the cupboards on the fly a lot, but you don't build a dynasty without winning a cup first, and 2018 and 2019 are our best shots to do just that, because it's extremely unlikely that we'll ever have a 45-goal-scorer and a 90-point-winger for a total combined cap hit of $6.525M again.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I haven't put much thought into that yet, as I feel it will depend on other decisions that will probably be made before Wheeler extends.



No, you let him play out his contract and try to win a cup while he's still a 90-point captain making $5.6M. This team should beyond the stage of caring too much about "value", as seen in the Stastny trade. This is a contender. I know you talk about dynasties and refilling the cupboards on the fly a lot, but you don't build a dynasty without winning a cup first, and 2018 and 2019 are our best shots to do just that, because it's extremely unlikely that we'll ever have a 45-goal-scorer and a 90-point-winger for a total combined cap hit of $6.525M again.

Yes, I could see using him as an 'own rental'.

Defining a 'dynasty' is really unimportant to me. I think the best way to ensure winning a cup is to get the largest possible number of chances. It is not in any way some variation of 'going for it' because you have calculated a narrow window.

If a team can remain in the top 5 contenders for 10 years they have a very good chance of winning a cup or two. I think those odds are better than trying to pump up the roster for a quick shot or two.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I agree with @Mortimer Snerd . Wheeler is tradeable if he doesn`t work within the financial parameters of the team. The window for when you trade players is always open not just when your team fails to make the playoffs. If someone offered us a D that`s an improvement over Kuli to fill Enstrom`s old spot and a young 2nd line winger for Wheeler you make it work. @mcpw have you seen how many contenders fail to win the cup despite their best efforts? Injuries happen that's why you need as big a window as possible. I would hate to see Wheeler walk away for nothing because we didn't trade him before we lost him. This team does care about value what does the Stas trade prove? That we are willing to give up a 29-31 pick and Foley? Not that bad of value. Having said that, I would definitely try to resign Wheeler for 7mil for a reasonable length.

 

[Bigfish]

Chevy can keep this team competitive for 10 years or more if he can resist signing aging veterans to long term contracts. Don't bridge Morrissey or Kyle Connor. Sign them to long term deals. They will never be cheaper. Wheeler's value has never been higher. I'm not saying that we should trade him this off season but he would bring in quite a haul. How much can we afford to pay our 2 top right wingers? We already have a 3rd/4th line center making $5.3.

 

[Adam da bomb]

@mortimer rentals have prices that you are willing and unwilling to pay. Depends on the haul that would be offered to move Wheeler before you decide to keep him as a rental. I would keep my ears open to the potential trades before making decisions one way or another.

 

[ps241]

What's Toth's track record breaking news? AFAIK, he doesn't have a track record, good or bad.

I am not sure Mort? I am not saying he isn't reliable but it seems odd he would be the only guy to get the scoop?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I am not sure Mort? I am not saying he isn't reliable but it seems odd he would be the only guy to get the scoop?

Maybe he is taking a career step and has acquired some inside source - but I don't recall him ever breaking anything before. Maybe KO dropped a dime?

Edit: Oh wait. Can I still say that? If it is out of date, I mean maybe he gave Toth a call, or a text.

 

[Daisy Jetsfoeva]

As interesting as this thread is I hope the whole Trouba stay/go conversation doesn't get too big as we're still fighting in the playoffs. It feels like a distraction. I agree with most people on the thread saying 6.5 is reasonable for him but with the games his agent plays I'm not going to hold my breath that we'll come to deal. TBH I know that the sit out was a "business decision" but it left a bad taste in my mouth - keep him if we can and if not trade him and get something in return. Cap space is going to be a major consideration moving forward.

 

[FFHockey]

As interesting as this thread is I hope the whole Trouba stay/go conversation doesn't get too big as we're still fighting in the playoffs. It feels like a distraction. I agree with most people on the thread saying 6.5 is reasonable for him but with the games his agent plays I'm not going to hold my breath that we'll come to deal. TBH I know that the sit out was a "business decision" but it left a bad taste in my mouth - keep him if we can and if not trade him and get something in return. Cap space is going to be a major consideration moving forward.

I assume you are saying it's a distraction on here? I'm pretty sure what's going on here with us is not a distraction to the team!