Salary Cap: Signing Jacob Trouba Part II

kelsier

Registered User
Aug 17, 2013
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Well Trouba certainly hasn't proven to be worthy of that huge extension he's probably dreaming about. Then again, who knows if he even really wants to stay with the team and whether it may have affected his performance. Although considering this being the contract year, you'd imagine player's personal preferences being a non-factor when playing towards the next paycheck. However the circumstances and not being able to find an ideal trading partner might have forced this situation where Trouba plays with the team against his will. I would still extend Trouba rather than keep Buff if the market return was the same. Unfortunately that's not the case and I wouldn't be surprised to see Trouba gone before next season.
 

Guerzy

I'm a fricken baby
Jan 16, 2005
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They play about the same amount of special teams, with Trouba more on the PK and Buff more on the PP. One difference is that Buff "steals" a few seconds every shift, with an average shift-length that is 7 seconds longer than Trouba. So, with about 25 shifts a game, Buff ends up with an extra 2-3 minutes a game just by extending each shift by 5-10 seconds. A bit of that is due to longer PP shifts, but even accounting for that Buff gets some extra time with longer shifts. Just an extra 5 seconds per 5v5 shift on average would make up the difference in their 5v5 TOI per game.

Nice breakdown, Whileee, thanks.

I see both Trouba and Morrissey with a fair market value at 5-6 million each. My guess would be if both were signed long-term Morrissey comes in at around 5.5 over 7 years (that will take Josh to 30 when the contact ends, so he could still sign another solid contact) and Trouba at 5.5 over 5 years (will take Trouba to 29). If Trouba goes 6 or 7 years then I could see him at the 6 million mark given it would be taking 1-2 more UFA years.

Edit, basically exactly what @scelaton said here.

Just to be clear--when I said "value", I meant contribution to the team on the ice, not monetary value. The two are in different stages of their contract cycles. But that could be easily corrected, eg, by offering Josh 5.5 x 7 (=3UFA years) and Trouba 5.5 x 5 (=3UFA years).
 
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surixon

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That's how arbitration works though. Each side picks comparable contracts and bases their asks on those contracts. Buff for instance is not a comparable contract. It must be a contract someone signed as an RFA.

I would expect a 1 yr arb award to come in somewhere around $4.5-5M

He might not even get that much in arbitration if his numbers finish in re low 20's.

I have started looking around cap friendly for comparible contracts but am having a very hard time putting together a list. Pretty much its standard procedure around the league to lock up good young dmen to long term deals right out of their ELC's. The few I found aren't I Trouba's class. Subban is above and Bogo below for instance. It' going to be hard to determine his value.
 

Maukkis

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He might not even get that much in arbitration if his numbers finish in re low 20's.

I have started looking around cap friendly for comparible contracts but am having a very hard time putting together a list. Pretty much its standard procedure around the league to lock up good young dmen to long term deals right out of their ELC's. The few I found aren't I Trouba's class. Subban is above and Bogo below for instance. It' going to be hard to determine his value.

Would Nick Leddy be a decent comparable (not an arbitration contract, but rather a standard third contract)? He signed his third contract at the age of 24 in June 2015 after coming off a bridge deal. The two are roughly equal in terms of talent, but Leddy is by far the better at creating offense (37 in 78 in his contract year back then).

Leddy's deal was 38.5 million over seven years (5.5 AAV). Now, it has been a couple of years since that deal was signed, so we should expect a higher number. If the cap goes up to 80 million, giving Trouba the same percentage of the cap would equate to 6.37 AAV on a long term deal. I reckon we won't give him that long a contract (or, he does not want one), nor does Trouba's production warrant as much money than Leddy got, so something around six million per year should be just fine.
 

surixon

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I hadn't gotten that far but he would definitely be one comp. Another one might be Tanev in Vancouver. Solid top pairing player who doesn't put up a tonne of points. I will have to complete my list tonight. But it doesn't look like Trouba should be expecting a much over 6 million based on whatvi have found.
 

Maukkis

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I hadn't gotten that far but he would definitely be one comp. Another one might be Tanev in Vancouver. Solid top pairing player who doesn't put up a tonne of points. I will have to complete my list tonight. But it doesn't look like Trouba should be expecting a much over 6 million based on whatvi have found.
Add Torey Krug to that list, while you're at it.
 

Peggy

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Aug 6, 2016
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He might not even get that much in arbitration if his numbers finish in re low 20's.

I have started looking around cap friendly for comparible contracts but am having a very hard time putting together a list. Pretty much its standard procedure around the league to lock up good young dmen to long term deals right out of their ELC's. The few I found aren't I Trouba's class. Subban is above and Bogo below for instance. It' going to be hard to determine his value.

dont think so
his ceiling for a long term contract is 7 million at best right now and he's not even worth that atm
I know he wants money, but I'd offer him 6.5 at most. he has peers who are putting up better player and better numbers who make less than that. signs him to a contract to play on a young team that has a bright future

buff would need to be moved eventually regardless if we keep trouba or not
buff is clearly regressing on the jets

imagine

scheifele
ehlers
trouba
core pieces to a team all for 6~ million each

next would be to sign helle to a decent contract and then laine. think Winnipeg would be very alright for a long time with a lot of room for flexibility
 
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Dano85

Registered User
Oct 8, 2016
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The difference is Krug puts up points. Trouba does not.

couldn't it be argued that Krug is more of a PP specialist and doesn't eat the defensive minutes the way Trouba does?

it very interesting to read through this thread on the Jets board vs the responses I got in my post on the trade boards

suggesting a starting point of Pulock and a 1st for Trouba (obviously more could be added)
 

surixon

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I went and looked at all the dmen in the league who are somewhat in Trouba's caliber and signed in the last three seasons coming off 2 years of bridge contracts:

Trouba Comps
Cap hit (millions)Term
Barrie $ 5.50 4 years
DeKyser $ 5.00 6 years
Tanev $ 4.50 5 years
Spurgeon $ 5.20 4 years
Orlov $ 5.10 6 years
Krug $ 5.25 4 years
Brodie $ 4.70 5 Years
Leddy $ 5.50 6 years
Subban $ 9.00 8 Years
Ekholm $ 3.75 6 Years
Muzzin $ 4.00 5 Years
Savard $ 4.25 5 years
Bogo $ 5.14 7 Years
Scandella $ 4.00 5 Years
Vatanen $ 4.88 4 Years
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Suffice to say even factoring the rising cap things don't look that amazing for Trouba's camp. He is looking at $5.5 to $6 million tops on a 4 to 6 year deal imo. The issue for his camp is most elite young dmen are inked to long term deals right out of their ELC's. There are very few comps in his range in Leddy, Barrie, Brodie, Tanev and Krug and they all fall under 5.5 million per year. I stand by my earlier prediction $6 million a year for 5 years.
 
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Maukkis

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Mar 16, 2016
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I went and looked at all the dmen in the league who are somewhat in Trouba's caliber and signed in the last three seasons coming off 2 years of bridge contracts:

Trouba Comps
Cap hit (millions)Term
Barrie $ 5.50 4 years
DeKyser $ 5.00 6 years
Tanev $ 4.50 5 years
Spurgeon $ 5.20 4 years
Orlov $ 5.10 6 years
Krug $ 5.25 4 years
Brodie $ 4.70 5 Years
Leddy $ 5.50 6 years
Subban $ 9.00 8 Years
Ekholm $ 3.75 6 Years
Muzzin $ 4.00 5 Years
Savard $ 4.25 5 years
Bogo $ 5.14 7 Years
Scandella $ 4.00 5 Years
Vatanen $ 4.88 4 Years
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Suffice to say even factoring the rising cap things don't look that amazing for Trouba's camp. He is looking at $5.5 to $6 million tops on a 4 to 6 year deal imo. The issue for his camp is most elite young dmen are inked to long term deals right out of their ELC's. There are very few comps in his range in Leddy, Barrie, Brodie, Tanev and Krug and they all fall under 5.5 million per year. I stand by my earlier prediction $6 million a year for 5 years.
Looks good for us. Furthermore, this year's RFA class doesn't have any Subbans in it; the defensemen that are coming off their bridge deals are hardly comparable to Trouba (Murray, Dumba, Ceci etc.).

The problem is, we're not likely to get him signed for much more than 4-5 years. That's not ideal, but at least it's something.
 

Electric Blue

Registered User
Dec 7, 2016
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Why sign him at all? Morrissey has improved over him and Sami Niku has a legit chance to be mad decent as well.

That's not to say Trouba is bad, he's really good. It's just that he might not be worth it (nor necessary) considering his price tag and the fact that Winnipeg has some heavy signing coming in the future with Ehlers and Laine.
 

larmex99

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Jul 4, 2013
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Why sign him at all? Morrissey has improved over him and Sami Niku has a legit chance to be mad decent as well.

That's not to say Trouba is bad, he's really good. It's just that he might not be worth it (nor necessary) considering his price tag and the fact that Winnipeg has some heavy signing coming in the future with Ehlers and Laine.
Why sign him at all? Because losing him by replacing him with a lower calibre player will make the Jets worse. Pretty simple really....
 
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Trinity

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Dec 12, 2017
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Why sign him at all? Morrissey has improved over him and Sami Niku has a legit chance to be mad decent as well.

That's not to say Trouba is bad, he's really good. It's just that he might not be worth it (nor necessary) considering his price tag and the fact that Winnipeg has some heavy signing coming in the future with Ehlers and Laine.
Chevy already re-signed Ehlers earlier this season.
 

Belzebob

Registered User
Apr 10, 2016
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i think that Mr Trouba will sign.

the reason I think this way is because he really seems to be enjoying this year. he is smiling on the bench and on the ice . I think he sees the team as having a real chance.

I do not know if he still feels he is worth north of 7 mil a year........ but the other thing I believe is......

chevy is going to do what is best for this team

it will still come down to a reasonable salary or a trade, but we will not be held to ransom over 1 player.
 
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GNP

Here Comes the Jets -look out hockey world !!!
Oct 11, 2016
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i think that Mr Trouba will sign.

the reason I think this way is because he really seems to be enjoying this year. he is smiling on the bench and on the ice . I think he sees the team as having a real chance.

I do not know if he still feels he is worth north of 7 mil a year........ but the other thing I believe is......

chevy is going to do what is best for this team

it will still come down to a reasonable salary or a trade, but we will not be held ransom over 1 player.
________________________________________________________

I totally agree with this post, and Chevy will not "throw away money" because it's fashionable or something. He proved this in the Ladd situation, where he let Ladd walk, and have someone else swallow his unrealistic contract demands.

Because Chevy takes pride in his draft and develop plan -- I'm sure he'd like to resign Trouba, but only if it's "fair market value"-- and that's around $ 5.5 - 6 mil , otherwise I think he trades off Trouba. It's really up to Trouba, or whoever is advising him. I personally don't think he's worth more than Morrissey !!!

Hopefully the Trouba camp will be reasonable, and we can retain his services.
 

bumblebeeman

Registered User
Mar 16, 2016
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There are currently 19 defenseman making 6 million or more. I don't think Trouba is a top 20 defenseman, I don't know how he could argue that to justify making 6+. Somewhere between 5-5.5 for 6+ years seems like a fair deal for both sides.
 
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Adam da bomb

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May 1, 2016
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I like Tanev's contract. D Tanev. He would be in good company accepting less than 6 mil. That said, if you said who would you rather this season, Buff or Trouba. I would rather keep Trouba. Than how can you justify paying him less? Someone will point out how much Buff has done in the past. Which is a great point, its the flaw in the contract system that the players are best when they are young, yet get paid the most when they are older and nearing the end of their career. I definitely see Trouba having a better future, next year and beyond than Buff.
Note: I am putting it out there that I am anti-buff (So people won't point out that I have a clear bias). Trouba is the better shut down defense man and given the powerplay time would contribute just as much.
Secondary note: I think Morissey would be the better Powerplay Quarterback than Trouba or Buff.
 

surixon

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I like Tanev's contract. D Tanev. He would be in good company accepting less than 6 mil. That said, if you said who would you rather this season, Buff or Trouba. I would rather keep Trouba. Than how can you justify paying him less? Someone will point out how much Buff has done in the past. Which is a great point, its the flaw in the contract system that the players are best when they are young, yet get paid the most when they are older and nearing the end of their career. I definitely see Trouba having a better future, next year and beyond than Buff.
Note: I am putting it out there that I am anti-buff (So people won't point out that I have a clear bias). Trouba is the better shut down defense man and given the powerplay time would contribute just as much.
Secondary note: I think Morissey would be the better Powerplay Quarterback than Trouba or Buff.

You are correct the system is a flawed although it seems to be shifting a bit. For th longest time seniority ruled the seas in the NHL but GMs and agents have started to become educated based on all the data out there but its still inconsistent. Some summers in FA you think, yes the league has got the message and it' better to pay big dollars on your young stars only to have a summer of stupid UFA contracts the next year.

Chevy to his credit has been ahead of the curve on this to date, really only one big dollar deal on a post 30 player in Buff and even then he got a favorable term.

Trouba at the end of the day doesn't have the counting numbers Buff has had and has including last season. That will play a part in the negotiations.
 

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