Why should we only consider NHL games? Svechnikov has 22 points in 52 AHL games this year and 85 points in 145 AHL games the past two years. I would guess if we took a sample of players with comparable numbers in their cumulative age 20 and 21 seasons the results wouldn't indicate a ton of upside. Why do we think Svechnikov's odds of success are higher than those players?
You keep saying that plenty of players take time to develop without any support to that claim. That statement may be true for the middle and bottom of the roster players, but those guys barely move the needle in terms of winning and losing in the NHL. If Svechnikov becomes one of those guys, who cares? They are easily replaceable and do nothing to solve the Red Wings' lack high-end talent. The reality is that the true difference makers, the guys who actually matter in terms of achieving and sustaining success in the NHL, generally establish themselves quickly. Look at the point leaders among forwards this year: the vast majority of them were already established as quality NHLers by age 21, and most of the ones who weren't were still putting up more impressive seasons than Svechnikov's .42 points per game in the AHL.
Perhaps we're just defining success differently here. To me, the difference between Svechnikov becoming a 3rd line NHLer or being a career AHLer is basically negligible in terms of impacting the Red Wings' future chances of success. Finding 3rd liners extremely easy and their impact on the game is fairly small. So yes, while its far too early to close the book on Svechnikov establishing himself in the NHL, that's not the bar I'm using to judge him. The Red Wings' ability to turn back into a perennial cup contender is going to hinge on one thing: finding high-end talent to build around, and the odds of Svechnikov being a solution in that regard should be considered low at this point.
First Bold: As far as him having higher odds of success compared to other players, I dont have those stats in front of me, so I can't really comment. As far as why one could think that he would show more moving forward and whats skewing his stats right now, the obvious answer to me would be injury.
Svechnikov didnt have a bad rookie season in the AHL scoring 51 Points in 74 Games, and 12 Points in 19 Playoff games, its this year where he has really played poorly with 22 Points in 52 Games. But, if you break it down further its pretty clear his injury to start the season effected him:
Oct- 5GP - 1 Point
Nov- 10 GP - 3 Points
Dec- 14 GP - 4 Points
Jan- 11 GP - 6 Points
Feb- 10 GP - 7 Points
Mar- 2 GP - 1 Point
These month by month stats clearly show that he has gotten better as the season went on. He had a VERY slow start scoring 8 Points in his first 29 games (2017). Then in his next 23 games (2018) he scored 14 Points. It makes sense that he played poorly because he was recovering from an injury.
Second Bold: Sorry I thought it was just common knowledge that this was a thing. A few examples of the top of my head:
When Zetterberg was 21/22 he scored 32 Points in 48 games in the SHL. Not exactly "tearing it up".
Datsyuk around the same age in 2001 playing for Ak Bars Kazan scored 27 Points 42 games.
Cory Perry in 2007 (21 years old) scrored 44 Points in 82 games with the Ducks. Those are good numbers, but at the time didnt look like he was a future hart winner.
In 2000 Martin St. Louis scored 18 points in 56 games for the Flames (at age 25) and he got cut, we all know what we became.
These are the first 4 four players I thought of, it happens all the time that guys develop late. Now please do not misinterpret this,
I AM NOT SAYING that Svechnikov is going to turn out even close to any of these 4, my point is simply that calling him a bust is pre-mature.
Third Bold: Agreed for the most part. If your gauge for success is solely based on the probability of him becoming elite, then you are likely right. My hope for Svechnikov is that he can turn into a legit top 6 player, I dont see him ever being a top 3 guy.
