Shocking Tyler Wright stat

[Oddbob]

He has been here all of 4 years, and our highest pick was 9 (one), with the rest being 14, 15, 19 or something along those lines. How about we relax, please! We need turn over in the front office, but I would hardly say Wright needs to go already. Not to mention that we don't know about Rasmussen, Hronek, and a few others yet.

 

[Frk It]

I was going to post a thread about Wright, but guess I will share that here instead (sorry for the long post):

He has been a Director of Amateur Scouting since 2011. He was in charge of the CBJ Drafts in 2012 and 2013; and he has been in charge of the DET drafts for 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017.

He has had 46 picks in total at his disposal over 6 drafts, including 8 first rounders.
Position Breakdown:
G - 7
D - 14
F - 25

He hasn't really hit on any defenseman yet, but he only used 3 picks on defenseman in his first 2 drafts. One of those was on Ryan Murray who is solid, but underwhelming for a #2 pick. Although I don't really know he should be at fault for that pick, I think 95% of teams probably had him as the top defenseman that year. But he has yet to draft a quality top 4 NHL defenseman at this point in time.

At forward, his big hit so far is Larkin. Alex Wennberg is kind of having a down year, but I like him as a player. He picked Rychel and Dano in the 1st round as well that year, who have been pretty underwhelming for 1st round picks. Biggest hits in rounds 2-7 are Oliver Bjorkstrand and Josh Anderson, who are both having nice seasons for Columbus. In his time here, I think this is the area he has struggled most. Our current forward pipeline in this range of picks (2-7) has been pretty lackluster with maybe the exception of Chase Pearson.

I get that some people didn't like Nill, but I could at least see what his thought process was most of the time. Even the picks that didn't work out like Jurco, Pulkkinen, etc... you could easily see the appeal there. The interesting thing is when Wright does go for more skilled prospects, I like the guys he has opted for (Hronek, Saarijarvi, etc.)... But it seems like he only goes for these types of players a very small % of the time so far. I almost feel like he commented he is going to do it for this upcoming draft because it's obvious he doesn't do it very often. Either way, I am intrigued to see what a draft would look like of his that is focused in that regard. He really needs to make a statement with this draft if he is going be kept around.

 

[dragonballgtz]

Says someone who has been watching stat lines? If you watched him during this call up he hasn't looked lost, but like a guy that is being played with terrible linemates, for nearly no minutes, on a team that is on a massive losing streak.

He will need to hit up the ICOPRO this offseason

 

[Redder Winger]

Shouldn’t we wait until the kid had played more then a few games though to truly asses?

I like looking 3 picks in front of and 5 picks behind a guy.
For Svech...
That's pretty rough in front
Barzal
Kyle Connor
Thomas Chabot
-----------------
And not so hot below
Joel Eriksson EK
Colin White
Ilya Samsonov
Brock Boeser
Travis Konecny

It's too early to write off Svechnikov.
But at this point his skating is not at an NHL level.
He has NHL size.
He's done nothing to indicate NHL level skill.

 

[Orthodox Caveman]

Too early to write off Svechnikov, Cholowski and Rasmussen.

Larkin, Mantha and AA have been good picks....yes I know Wright didn't draft Mantha or AA.

In a redraft, Larkin probably goes at 9 and Mantha at 11. AA I've seen as high as 24 in a redraft. There have been busts/unknowns ahead of them. If we start drafting some elite pieces to go along with what we have I think the Wings will be fine

 

[Inspiration]

Shouldn’t we wait until the kid had played more then a few games though to truly asses?

Is it too early to assess Matt Barzal, Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser, or Travis Konecny? Here's the reality: a large portion of the guys who are going to be great from that draft class have already shown it. There are exceptions, but that's what they are: exceptions.

Every game, be it junior, AHL, or NHL, gives us bit more information about a player to form an opinion. We should constantly be (slightly) adjusting our future projections for players based on the new information we receive. Fans have no problem adjusting their expectations upwards when their prospects are doing great. Saying "it's too early to judge" is just a way to avoid doing this when the results have been disappointing. With disappointing prospects, fans just want to kick the can down the road until they finally can't lie to themselves any longer that the player isn't going to work out.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I never understood what Tyler Wright did to come in to the Wings at such a high position.
I think it's just a case of another Western Canada boy in a good old boys organization.

I read somewhere that Wright and Holland have vacation cottages next to each other back in BC. That's how they met, and then Holland hired him.

 

[kliq]

Is it too early to assess Matt Barzal, Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser, or Travis Konecny? Here's the reality: a large portion of the guys who are going to be great from that draft class have already shown it. There are exceptions, but that's what they are: exceptions.

Every game, be it junior, AHL, or NHL, gives us bit more information about a player to form an opinion. We should constantly be (slightly) adjusting our future projections for players based on the new information we receive. Fans have no problem adjusting their expectations upwards when their prospects are doing great. Saying "it's too early to judge" is just a way to avoid doing this when the results have been disappointing. With disappointing prospects, fans just want to kick the can down the road until they finally can't lie to themselves any longer that the player isn't going to work out.

I'm not talking about those players, I am talking about Svechnikov. I am not going to deem a guy a success or a fail when he has played 7 NHL games and is 21 years old.

Regarding the section I italicized, I agree with this for the most part and there is nothing wrong with saying that Svechnikov has shown some red flags so far in his pro career. The point I am making is that fans have a tendency of kicking a player to the curb if he isn't looking like a stud right off the bat. Plenty of players take time to develop.

Saying "its too early to judge" is a way to avoid reality seems to me like trying to create a false narrative in an effort to come across like a "realist" in a way to justify your own criticism. If we are truly being realistic to where Svechnikov is right now, I would say we has so far disappointed, but still has plenty of upside. Lets give him a chance to play more then 7 games before we deem him a failure.

As far as this part

"With disappointing prospects, fans just want to kick the can down the road until they finally can't lie to themselves any longer that the player isn't going to work out."

This really isn't something I see a lot of, if anything I would say most Wings fans on here are quite pessimistic when it comes to Holland's prospects. Go read the Mrazek thread, there were only a handful of people that wanted to hang on to him, most people were ready to move on. You seem to be painting Wings fans as optimistic and unwilling to accept that certain players are not going to become stars. I really don't see this is as the case.

 

[kliq]

I like looking 3 picks in front of and 5 picks behind a guy.
For Svech...
That's pretty rough in front
Barzal
Kyle Connor
Thomas Chabot
-----------------
And not so hot below
Joel Eriksson EK
Colin White
Ilya Samsonov
Brock Boeser
Travis Konecny

It's too early to write off Svechnikov.
But at this point his skating is not at an NHL level.
He has NHL size.
He's done nothing to indicate NHL level skill.

Not a bad way of looking at it. Why do you say Brock Boeser is not so hot? Konecny's not playing bad either, I would take his 40 points in 70 games from Svechnikov.

 

[Redder Winger]

Not a bad way of looking at it. Why do you say Brock Boeser is not so hot? Konecny's not playing bad either, I would take his 40 points in 70 games from Svechnikov.

No, I mean that Svech doesn't look so hot in comparison.
I didn't realize, I guess, that Barzal and Boeser were taken so low.

 

[kliq]

No, I mean that Svech doesn't look so hot in comparison.
I didn't realize, I guess, that Barzal and Boeser were taken so low.

Oh ok, my bad. I misunderstood what you meant.

 

[BinCookin]

In regards to drafting im performing a long term plan to rate all teams drafting vs each other, by doing an HFBoards Redraft for many years.

Compare the redraft position of each player to the actual position picked, and compare those positional differences to the draft pick value chart.

this will give a numerical approximation of the strength of each teams drafting.

P.s. I am already performing redrafts in the NHL talk - Polls section. Not getting a heck of alot of votes after first 15 picks. So more would be helpful.

I am pondering a faster method to do redrafts. (yes i know they vary by year) So far i was working on 2007-2010

 

[BinCookin]

P.S. Nyquist has been redrafted in the first round.

 

[Redder Winger]

In regards to drafting im performing a long term plan to rate all teams drafting vs each other, by doing an HFBoards Redraft for many years.

Compare the redraft position of each player to the actual position picked, and compare those positional differences to the draft pick value chart.

this will give a numerical approximation of the strength of each teams drafting.

P.s. I am already performing redrafts in the NHL talk - Polls section. Not getting a heck of alot of votes after first 15 picks. So more would be helpful.

I am pondering a faster method to do redrafts. (yes i know they vary by year) So far i was working on 2007-2010

I think the Wings drafted well for where they drafted. Unfortunately, they didn't hit many homeruns with their top 40 picks, where homeruns become core players.
Guys like Kindl, Sheahan, Smith, eetc... were underwhelming, but that's how it goes at 19, 23 and 27 sometimes. The Wings paid a price for trading away picks. They paid a price for trading away prospects.
But even if they hasn't done that, they'd still be struggling to replace Lidstrom/Datsyuk.

The one draft pick, before Rasmussen, that I really hated on draft day was Sheahan over Kuznetsov.

Having Kuznetsov/Larkin/Zetterberg as our 1-2-3 centers, and Kuz-Larkin going forward... well that would have really helped us.
But it still probably wouldn't have prevented our decline.

 

[BinCookin]

Ya i just think it would be fun to come up with a ranking system for teams and their drafting in relation to "actual value" (redraft position) vs "predicted value" (original draft position).

 

[Claypool]

Is it too early to assess Matt Barzal, Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser, or Travis Konecny?

Oh this game? Literally every team has made draft picks where better players emerged in later rounds/picks.

 

[Redder Winger]

P.S. Nyquist has been redrafted in the first round.

Would be nice if more people participated, but I think you could easily do one of these yourself and do pretty good.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I'll never understand why people continue to defend the indefensible. We're gonna have a long rebuild due entirely to Holland and Wright. Why on earth would anyone want them to continue on in their current rolls?

From picks 10-24 in the 2014 draft, Larkin is by far the best pick. Is that worth nothing? Our rebuild would be in a much worse state with pretty much any pick made after Larkin that entire draft aside from 25(Pasta) or 79 (Point).

Right now this thread is 99% judging Svechnikov. And he was taken at #20. The expectation there isn’t a superstar. If Svech becomes an Abdelkader+ (I fullt believe he still can), that’s a solid pick. A rough season does not cancel out his potential.

Saarijarvi, Holway, Pearson from ’15 are later round picks with potential. ’16 looks good (Cholo/Hronek, maybe Smith/Sambrook). ’17 way too early but Ras will be an NHLer.

It’s not a game of ”who makes the NHL the fastest”. But, next year probably sees Turgeon, Cholo, Hronek, Svech, Ras and maybe more either become NHLers or get a taste.

 

[Shaman464]

I am not defending Wright, but, I am 100% sure he never just goes to Holland with one pick. I have to believe he gives a few names and Holland makes the ultimate call. In the end, if you want scouting and drafting philosophy to change you have to change the man at the helm.

 

[BinCookin]

1 pick? Dude they make a full list. Rank everyone 1-210 (or however high it goes)

 

[datsyukfan]

Says someone who has been watching stat lines? If you watched him during this call up he hasn't looked lost, but like a guy that is being played with terrible linemates, for nearly no minutes, on a team that is on a massive losing streak.

I agree. He goes out makes a couple plays creates a good chance then boom sits for 6 minutes straight

 

[newfy]

Keep in mind we could have drafted Chychrun and Gabe Vilardi who tore up the OHL. Then you add in a pick at #5 this year - give or take - and your have the start of a solid rebuild.

This front office needs to go ASAP.

Vilardi is tearing up in junior but isnt a great skater so he may not be an NHL center, I'm more in a wait and see with him. However I dont get people complaining about the Chychrun deal, that was great for Detroit. Knowing what CHychrun is now, you can tell he was a man child in junior and doesnt have much more developing to do. I would definitely not trade Hronek and Cholowski for him

 

[Henkka]

Played games imo are the better indicator. If you count only points, it only favors forwards. If you count games, it takes defencemen and goalies more even on the comparison.

From 2014+2015+2016+2017 drafts:

1. Boston, 620 games (7 players)
2. Edmonton, 555 games (5 players)
3. Arizona, 552 games (9 players)
4. Vancouver, 514 games (5 players)
5. Toronto, 500 games (5 players)
6. Winnipeg, 496 games (6 players)
7. Florida, 492 games (5 players)
8. Carolina, 461 games (7 players)
9. Buffalo, 460 games (5 players)
10. Philadelphia, 410 games (5 players)
11. Nashville, 407 games (5 players)
12. Columbus, 406 games (5 players)
13. Anaheim, 398 games (5 players)
14. Calgary, 388 games (5 players)
15. Colorado, 305 games (5 players)
16. St. Louis, 303 games (5 players)
17. New Jersey, 287 games (5 players)
18. San Jose, 278 games (3 players)
19. NY Islanders, 267 games (5 players)
20. Detroit, 243 games (3 players)
21. Tampa Bay, 217 games (3 players)
22. Chicago, 201 games (2 players)
23. Minnesota, 172 games (3 players)
24. Montreal, 167 games (5 players)
25. Los Angeles, 129 games (3 players)
26. Pittsburgh, 108 games (3 players)
27. Washington, 94 games (2 players)
28. Ottawa, 92 games (7 players)
29. Dallas, 53 games (3 players)
30. NY Rangers, 3 games (2 players)
Vegas, 0 games (0 players) only 1 draft.

But this is still a stupid comparison, because almost all NCAA players from 2014-2017 drafts are still at NCAA. Or some potential Europeans are at Europe. If you got late-boomer hits from there, it doesn't show at all. That's why I wouldn't be judging Tyler Wright yet. We need more time to see his abilities. bigger drafts with more picks and higher top picks coming. He hasn't had an edge on the draft position until 2018.

Next season brings more youth in and we can add those in the comparison.

Also, if I have time, I try to do a comparison, where is an expected rating for the picks the teams had in use. Then the results vs. expected results. There was those draft table articles, and I try to build some "poor-man's" formula based on those.

 

[Frk It]

The forwards Wrights drafts in rounds 2-7 are concerning, and it used to be our bread and butter. He needs to diversify his portfolio. The odds of you getting a Kucherov/Point type break-out player when you have a thing for drafting big grinders is low. He needs to step outside his comfort zone more often.

Wright has done good at this with the defenseman so far, so I don’t get why we don’t do it at forward. I suppose he may have came in at a time when the org was stressing getting bigger and more physical. But Tatar is gone now, and Nyquist will be following shortly maybe. We need some skilled players. Anxious to see how we do with that this year, hopefully it’s actually a priority like they have said it was.

 

[Run the Jewels]

From picks 10-24 in the 2014 draft, Larkin is by far the best pick. Is that worth nothing? Our rebuild would be in a much worse state with pretty much any pick made after Larkin that entire draft aside from 25(Pasta) or 79 (Point).

Right now this thread is 99% judging Svechnikov. And he was taken at #20. The expectation there isn’t a superstar. If Svech becomes an Abdelkader+ (I fullt believe he still can), that’s a solid pick. A rough season does not cancel out his potential.

Saarijarvi, Holway, Pearson from ’15 are later round picks with potential. ’16 looks good (Cholo/Hronek, maybe Smith/Sambrook). ’17 way too early but Ras will be an NHLer.

It’s not a game of ”who makes the NHL the fastest”. But, next year probably sees Turgeon, Cholo, Hronek, Svech, Ras and maybe more either become NHLers or get a taste.

Eh, if you accept you are not smarter than everyone else and go chalk you've got Larkin & Vilardi as top 2 centers and Chychrun + this year's #1 as your top 2 dmen. That's a really good base for a team that will be decent in 3-5 years. Instead we've got a bunch of projects who are not trending well. Rasmussen isn't in the top 50 of even strength point production in a weak league.

I get that for some Holland can do no wrong despite the fact we're one of the worst teams in the league. I get he deserves the benefit of the doubt at all times. I simply don't agree with that at all. This is definitely the case with regard to our drafting under Tyler Wright. Lots of people felt the Holland plan would prevent us from having to rebuild. Recent history hasn't been very kind to them.