GDT: Sharks @ Panthers 4:30PM Pacific NBCSCA

Mattb124

Registered User
Apr 29, 2011
6,513
3,847
If Burns was playing anywhere near the way he was last year I would say there is no competition between he and Heed. 16-17 Burns is arguably the best Shark player of all time behind maybe only 05-06 Thornton. However, Burns' offensive contributions have not been at that level and his defense has been inconsistent and shaky at times. Heed has a higher P/60 and better possession stats and from what I've seen, he has been better. Heed is way better than Schlemko was last year and I was a massive Schlemko supporter.



The team does not play better without him. They are 3-2-1 without him, for a 58.33 P%, and they are 11-6-1 with him for a 63.89 P%. I should just stop here. Keep in mind that of the 6 games he sat out, one was against a historically bad Arizona Coyotes team and one was against a comparably putrid Flyers squad. Btw, Heed has received less favorable zone starts than both Ryan and Burns.



Lol, thanks for insulting my understanding of statistics I've been studying for years.

Here's something for you to look at: Why linemate and competition metrics may not be as simple as we think

Quality of teammates has a larger effect on performance than quality of competition. Burns spends a lot more time with our top scoring forwards than Tim Heed. The quality of their primary defense partners is debatable but I will call it a wash between Ryan and Dillon. On top of that, Burns isn't the guy playing against elite competition at all either. That's Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Justin Braun. Heed is also starting a higher percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone but that has a minimal effect on possession stats. It's not as if Heed is some sheltered puppy that never has to do anything difficult; he and Burns have similar deployment.
 

Mattb124

Registered User
Apr 29, 2011
6,513
3,847
Lol, thanks for insulting my understanding of statistics I've been studying for years.

Here's something for you to look at: Why linemate and competition metrics may not be as simple as we think

Quality of teammates has a larger effect on performance than quality of competition. Burns spends a lot more time with our top scoring forwards than Tim Heed. The quality of their primary defense partners is debatable but I will call it a wash between Ryan and Dillon. On top of that, Burns isn't the guy playing against elite competition at all either. That's Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Justin Braun. Heed is also starting a higher percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone but that has a minimal effect on possession stats. It's not as if Heed is some sheltered puppy that never has to do anything difficult; he and Burns have similar deployment.

Per NHL.com, Heed's 5v5 o-zone start % is 63% - very similar to Burns and Ryan. The 3 of them are outliers in comparison to the rest of the team (next closest is Dillon at 58%, and as examples Demelo is at 56% and Braun is at 42%). I guess that begs the question of who "Heed is..starting a higher percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone ..." than? The relatively low % of d-zone starts, him being ~5% lower than his most common D partner and 7% lower than his replacement, and him not PKing suggest all suggest he is being sheltered defensively. That reconciles with what I have seen watching him play. He is not very good on the boards and tends to get pushed around a bit due to his size..

I like Heed - he's basically what people "thought" Schlemko was (but wasn't) - a good bottom pairing puck mover with offensive ability. But to suggest he has been our best defenseman is IMO way off base. Like Schlemko last year, Heed has done well in a sheltered role. As a comparison, Braun is putting up similar offensive numbers on a ppg basis (w/ no PP time) and has been far better on the defensive side of the puck. I wouldn't even suggest that Braun has been our best defenseman so far this season, just that from my perspective he is more deserving of that title than Heed.
 

stator

Registered User
Apr 17, 2012
5,009
995
San Jose
The problem with saying that Heed, being on the 3rd pairing, is playing sheltered minutes is... well, that can be a general statement for all 3rd pairings.

Whichever, he sure is making good use of those minutes.

As for Braun, he certainly has no shortage of minutes where he was looking ugly. Same for last season as well. But then again, being on the top pairing brings more risk of looking ugly at times.

Then there is a comparision of futures. I think we've seen peak Braun, but I cannot same the same for Heed.
 

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