Prospect Info: Shane Bowers - potential

[DanyHeatley]

He's ceiling is the unrushed product Curtis Lazar could've been

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

He's ceiling is the unrushed product Curtis Lazar could've been

Interesting comparison. What type of player do you think that might be?

 

[Xspyrit]

Why are some people are so down on this pick? It's a 28th OA pick in a bad draft. If he plays a few NHL games, it's a win

I just think its funny that people here think that being more skilled than a bust automatically means your going to be a solid NHLer.

What does Jim O'Brien NHL stats have to do with anything?

And Jim was not a bust, a low end 1st round pick who had a nice cup of NHL coffee.

He's ceiling is the unrushed product Curtis Lazar could've been

For me it's a myth. Curtis Lazar is going to be Curtis Lazar. Expectations were just not realistic for him. Personally, I always saw a good 3rd liner. Was hopeful that he boomed into something more, but I was not expecting it.

 

[BondraTime]

In my experience, the idea of low-ceiling, high-floor players is pretty much a myth.

Since I've been following the draft, here's a general list of two-way forwards drafted in the top 2 rounds that I recall having been characterised as guys with lower ceilings but a high likelihood of playing in the NHL in a bottom 6 role:

Anton Gustafsson (2008)
Viktor Tihkonov (2008)
Philip McRae (2008)
Jared Staal (2008)
Patrice Cormier (2008)
Jimmy Hayes (2008)
Zack Kassian (2009)
Phillip Paradis (2009)
Carter Ashton (2009)
Landon Ferraro (2009)
Ryan O'Reilly (2009)
Carl Klingberg (2009)
Chris Brown (2009)
Jakob Silfverberg (2009)
Anton Lander (2009)
Kenny Ryan (2009)
Austin Watson (2010)
Riley Sheahan (2010)
Quinton Howden (2010)
Tyler Pitlick (2010)
Tyler Biggs (2011)
Philip Danault (2011)
Boone Jenner (2011)
Brett Ritchie (2011)
Johan Sundstrom (2011)
Alexander Ruutu (2011)
Mikko Salimaki (2011)
Tom Wilson (2012)
Scott Laughton (2012)
Stefan Matteau (2012)
Lukas Sutter (2012)
Colton Scissons (2012)
Curtis Lazar (2013)
Frederik Gauthier (2013)
Michael McCarron (2013)
Marko Dano (2013)
Ryan Hartman (2013)
Jacob De La Rose (2013)
Remi Elie (2013)
Zach Nastasiuk (2013)
Conner Bleackley (2014)
Adrian Kempe (2014)
John Quenneville (2014)
Brendan Lemieux (2014)
Noah Rod (2014)
Hunter Smith (2014)

(I'll leave the last 3 draft years out of it for now to give them more time to develop before passing judgement)

Despite supposedly giving up potential for safety by drafting these players, most of them ended up busting anyways. The majority of those who didn't bust failed to meet their low ceilings and ended up as replaceable bottom 6 forwards (bad return on a 1st/2nd round pick). Only a couple (O'Reilly, Silfverberg, Jenner) actually exceeded expectations and became better players than anyone thought they had the potential to become.

Moral of the story: low-ceiling, high-floor players are often low-ceiling, low-floor players

Hopefully the Sens scouting staff thinks Bowers has higher potential than HFSens does.

Which is why I am not a fan of these kind of picks in the 1st.

I have no doubts that Bowers is going to be an NHL player, which I'm not going to say unless I am confident. I don't think he will ever be a top 6 player, but I do see him as an everyday NHLer.

He's extremely focused, and understands his limitations, even as a 15 year old. He knows what he needs to do to be successful, and he will work at it until he is. I am not a fan of the pick due to my own views on drafting in the 1st/2nd, but I am a fan of Bowers as a hockey player in general.

This isn't Lazar, Bowers can read plays and understands what's developing around him. Let's hope he can develop a bit more offense (he has shown this type of ability at a younger, lower level).

All in all, not my 1st choice, but given this draft and the guys available, I 100% understand the pick.

I have a feeling that we will be spending a lot of time in the Maritime Division again this season. (5) 1st round talents (Velano, McIsaac, Groulx, Dobson, Zadina) playing on the Maritime teams, and Khovanov may still suit up with Moncton, and 3 guys born in the Maritimes (McDonald, McIsaac, Dobson) all likely going to go in the 1st round.

If I were a betting man, I would wager quite a bit that both Noah Dobson and Anderson McDonald are already on the Sens preseason short list. I'd wager even more we make multiple selections from the Q in 2018. It's an absolutely stacked year in both top talents and depth.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

He's ceiling is the unrushed product Curtis Lazar could've been

I see more Colin White than Lazar in the way he plays.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

3.5 yellow * prospect in NHL 16.

 

[DanyHeatley]

Interesting comparison. What type of player do you think that might be?

For me it's a myth. Curtis Lazar is going to be Curtis Lazar. Expectations were just not realistic for him. Personally, I always saw a good 3rd liner. Was hopeful that he boomed into something more, but I was not expecting it.

See I think a lot of us expected Lazar to be a good leader who leads by example: finishing checks, forechecking hard, first on the puck/hustle type of player who can also be very physical and chip in offensively kinda like a mini Mike Fisher. I think management really screwed his development. He would've been an excellent 3C or a slightly below average (production wise) 2C

 

[Xspyrit]

See I think a lot of us expected Lazar to be a good leader who leads by example: finishing checks, forechecking hard, first on the puck/hustle type of player who can also be very physical and chip in offensively kinda like a mini Mike Fisher. I think management really screwed his development. He would've been an excellent 3C or a slightly below average (production wise) 2C

This I will never agree. Curtis Lazar was both ready physically and mentally to play in the NHL (he was also 19, not 18). The best place to become better (unless you're not ready physically and mentally; and in terms of an enough mature 2-way game) is the NHL where you face top competition both in practices and games.

The thing is Curtis Lazar doesn't have high-end skill, particularly stick handling. To be a top-6 forward, you need "elite" (relatively to the immense pool of hockey players) skills and hockey sense. Those things are lacking in Lazar's game, who will/could still be a pretty good bottom-6 forward as long as he skates hard and fight along the boards.

 

[aragorn]

3rd line player with 2nd line potential which IMO he has a very good chance to achieve. Very much like his game or what I saw of it at the dev camp. IMO White lite!

 

[JD1]

what's the word on bowers? haven't heard his name in camp talk at all. did I miss an injury or something?

 

[scallionjj11]

what's the word on bowers? haven't heard his name in camp talk at all. did I miss an injury or something?

He's not at camp, he's with Boston U.

 

[Agent Zub]

https://streamable.com/5dc0u

 

[Agent Zub]

His potential is to be just as bad of a pick as Lazar. You'd think they would have learned the first time?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

His potential is to be just as bad of a pick as Lazar. You'd think they would have learned the first time?

Based on? .How did you come to this conclusion, you felt compelled to share.

https://streamable.com/5dc0u

You wanted Tolvanen or is this just a random post in the Bowers thread

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Why are some people are so down on this pick? It's a 28th OA pick in a bad draft. If he plays a few NHL games, it's a win



What does Jim O'Brien NHL stats have to do with anything?

And Jim was not a bust, a low end 1st round pick who had a nice cup of NHL coffee.



For me it's a myth. Curtis Lazar is going to be Curtis Lazar. Expectations were just not realistic for him. Personally, I always saw a good 3rd liner. Was hopeful that he boomed into something more, but I was not expecting it.

Yeah no. I'm sure the scouting staff holds itself to a higher standard then "let's get a guy in the first that can play a *few* NHL games"

 

[OmniSens]

Realistically, sky is the limit.

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

Based on poll results, here are some somewhat similar players to what Bowers is projected to become:

- Dominic Moore (^)
- Torrey Mitchell (^)
- Marcus Kreuger (~)
- Matt Stajan (~)
- Markus Granlund (~)
- Tobias Reider (~)
- Patrick Berglund (~)
- Mark Letestu (~)
- Jay Beagle (~)
- Lars Eller (~)
- Nick Bonino (~)
- Drew Shore (?)
- Matt Cullen (v)
- Antoine Vermette (v)
- Calle Jarnkrok (v)
- J.G. Pageau (v)
- Sean Couturier (v)
- Boone Jenner (v)
- Alex Killorn (v)

(^) = projected to be a bit better than
(~) = projected to be quite similar to in terms of impact
(v) = projected to be slightly less impactful than

I'd be a little let down with a Dom Moore and moreso with a Torrey Mitchell, but I'd be really happy with any of those other guys. Let's hope he has a nice progression this next season.

 

[Fandlauer]

Thanks guy. It was a slice.

 

[The Lewler]

Thanks guy. It was a slice.

Hilarious to read all the people saying 3rd liner , low ceiling player and then read the Duchene trade thread.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

As you can see for yourself ... Pure Trash... Empty net goal specialist


I'm not putting this here to say we should not have traded him or that he is a fantastic prospect.. I am putting it here because he doesn't deserve the bad press he gets on this board

 

[The don godfather]

Hopefully he becomes a solid 3c for the bruins still young I love the no risk high award trade from the bruins. From all accounts a good kid with a solid head on his shoulders. Talent is there.

 

[jbeck5]

Hopefully he becomes a solid 3c for the bruins still young I love the no risk high award trade from the bruins. From all accounts a good kid with a solid head on his shoulders. Talent is there.

Thank you for this.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Jason Robertson is a little better taken shortly after

 

[R2010]

In my experience, the idea of low-ceiling, high-floor players is pretty much a myth.

Since I've been following the draft, here's a general list of two-way forwards drafted in the top 2 rounds that I recall having been characterised as guys with lower ceilings but a high likelihood of playing in the NHL in a bottom 6 role:

Anton Gustafsson (2008)
Viktor Tihkonov (2008)
Philip McRae (2008)
Jared Staal (2008)
Patrice Cormier (2008)
Jimmy Hayes (2008)
Zack Kassian (2009)
Phillip Paradis (2009)
Carter Ashton (2009)
Landon Ferraro (2009)
Ryan O'Reilly (2009)
Carl Klingberg (2009)
Chris Brown (2009)
Jakob Silfverberg (2009)
Anton Lander (2009)
Kenny Ryan (2009)
Austin Watson (2010)
Riley Sheahan (2010)
Quinton Howden (2010)
Tyler Pitlick (2010)
Tyler Biggs (2011)
Philip Danault (2011)
Boone Jenner (2011)
Brett Ritchie (2011)
Johan Sundstrom (2011)
Alexander Ruutu (2011)
Mikko Salimaki (2011)
Tom Wilson (2012)
Scott Laughton (2012)
Stefan Matteau (2012)
Lukas Sutter (2012)
Colton Scissons (2012)
Curtis Lazar (2013)
Frederik Gauthier (2013)
Michael McCarron (2013)
Marko Dano (2013)
Ryan Hartman (2013)
Jacob De La Rose (2013)
Remi Elie (2013)
Zach Nastasiuk (2013)
Conner Bleackley (2014)
Adrian Kempe (2014)
John Quenneville (2014)
Brendan Lemieux (2014)
Noah Rod (2014)
Hunter Smith (2014)

(I'll leave the last 3 draft years out of it for now to give them more time to develop before passing judgement)

Despite supposedly giving up potential for safety by drafting these players, most of them ended up busting anyways. The majority of those who didn't bust failed to meet their low ceilings and ended up as replaceable bottom 6 forwards (bad return on a 1st/2nd round pick). Only a couple (O'Reilly, Silfverberg, Jenner) actually exceeded expectations and became better players than anyone thought they had the potential to become.

Moral of the story: low-ceiling, high-floor players are often low-ceiling, low-floor players

Hopefully the Sens scouting staff thinks Bowers has higher potential than HFSens does.

With this thread bump just noticed this post. One of the challenges with speaking too soon. There's about 9 players now instead of the three listed who turned out to be much better than what they were projected as. This is out of 46 on the list which equates to a 20% hit rate. It should include Rakell as well. Either way, that's around what you expect in that stage of the draft if not a bit high.

Basically we can reject the evidence that there's somehow a worse hit rate for the 'two-way' players based on the above list. Ridly Greig, Shane Pinto both great examples of that since this time. It's about picking the right ones - i.e. not Shane Bowers.

 

[bicboi64]

I wish him luck with the B's. Wasn't upset that we moved him for Duchene, was upset we targeted Duchene as our centre upgrade.

He's 23 and if there's ever a team that can bring out the best in him, Boston would be a fair bet