You guys are probably right on the papering thing, but I really think this team struggles heavily in regards to marketing. The cult of Alfie, the O logo and terms like the "Pesky Sens" were all elements that played towards building some sort of interest in this club in recent years, and all of them were largely built by the community and later embraced by the team, rather than vice versa.
For years this team could effectively operate as being the only game in town, but this is no longer the case. Other teams could fall back on a storied history and a recognizable brand to market to local fans, the Sens don't have the former and have struggled with the latter. Say what you will about the REDBLACKS name, the team marketed itself really well, creating an image and making going down to TD Place a proper "experience" very quickly (though I'm sure those Grey Cup appearances helped).
And now we're moving into the stages of getting a new home built. This should be a prime opportunity to go all out in attracting the attention of this city - a brand new stadium in the heart of the city, with a competitive team led by one of the best players in the NHL, this really should be a slam dunk to win this city over. Instead we're talking about how we need to tarp over our current home and build a smaller stadium at Lebreton because the fans just aren't there. Not exactly the kind of perception we want to be giving off if we want to drum up interest in seeing the Sens play.
danielpalfredsson mentioned in the jersey thread that the team should be marketing hyperaggresively to kids and teens, and that statement is bang-on. I worked as a TA in an elementary school during a co-op placement a few years ago, and the only real difference from when I was a kid was that there were now more Penguins jerseys than Leafs jerseys alongside the already present Sens and Habs jerseys. A week ago I was at work and a father came in with his two young sons both decked out in Golden Knights merch. This team could get away with a degree of coasting on the Senators name when they employed they were the toast of the league and consistently in the hunt, but we really missed the bar in marketing in these past years when the team was struggling.
A reduction is probably the right move in the short term, but I'm concerned that we're basically resigning ourselves to being on the small-end of the Canadian franchises by doing so. 20 000 probably was a bit generous, but I don't see any reason why this team couldn't draw in the 18 000-19 000 range comfortably if we put in a bit of effort to get there.