Prospect Info: Senators Prospects Watch 2017/2018

[BondraTime]

I'm just gonna throw this out there, I've watched Dobson since like 2012, he will be no more then a #4 at best. with decent skating and no real stand out quality, his defense is ok, but can get out muscled often. his offense is, in my opinion, being inflated by the quality of players around him.

Being from PEI I want him to be good so bad. But watching him play, all I can think is this is going to be Brandon Gormley 2.0.

He won AB MVP and there was only 1 player with more points than him, hard to get your points inflated when the top scorers on your team have 76, 62, 61 and 50 points compared to Dobson's 69 He was the best defensive D in the Q by quite a bit. I definitely don't agree with that assessment. Skating is a huge asset, he was the best backwards skater with and without the puck, and 4th best skater with and without the puck at the top prospects game.

I definitely disagree with that, as someone who has also watched him for a long time. Saying he will be a #4 at best, I don't know...

I don't think you have to worry about Brandon Gormley, and scouts definitely are not.

I'm not saying you are wrong, just highly disagree personally. It wouldn't be the first time I was way off the mark if I'm wrong.

 

[Cbgrinder]

He won AB MVP and there was only 1 player with more points than him, hard to get your points inflated when the top scorers on your team have 76, 62, 61 and 50 points compared to Dobson's 69 He was the best defensive D in the Q by quite a bit. I definitely don't agree with that assessment. Skating is a huge asset, he was the best backwards skater with and without the puck, and 4th best skater with and without the puck at the top prospects game.

I definitely disagree with that, as someone who has also watched him for a long time. Saying he will be a #4 at best, I don't know...

I don't think you have to worry about Brandon Gormley, and scouts definitely are not.

I'm not saying you are wrong, just highly disagree personally. It wouldn't be the first time I was way off the mark if I'm wrong.

This is more my assessment of Dobson. Lanky kid who will fill out. Nice skater that has great hockey smarts

 

[topshelf15]

He won AB MVP and there was only 1 player with more points than him, hard to get your points inflated when the top scorers on your team have 76, 62, 61 and 50 points compared to Dobson's 69 He was the best defensive D in the Q by quite a bit. I definitely don't agree with that assessment. Skating is a huge asset, he was the best backwards skater with and without the puck, and 4th best skater with and without the puck at the top prospects game.

I definitely disagree with that, as someone who has also watched him for a long time. Saying he will be a #4 at best, I don't know...

I don't think you have to worry about Brandon Gormley, and scouts definitely are not.

I'm not saying you are wrong, just highly disagree personally. It wouldn't be the first time I was way off the mark if I'm wrong.

Dobson looks like the exact type of defender this team needs....I think with EK ,Chabot,Wol we have the skilled PMD covered...Its the rock solid all situation defender we desperately need

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I have to say in my viewings of Dobson (~5 games now) not a lot, but .. I have really liked him. He has good size, he is smooth, fast, and I find he reads the play really well. He also head mans the puck quickly and makes good passes. He hits and battles physically. I think he stands out in a good way for a draft eligible on a top team.

 

[topshelf15]

I have to say in my viewings of Dobson (~5 games now) not a lot, but .. I have really liked him. He has good size, he is smooth, fast, and I find he reads the play really well. He also head mans the puck quickly and makes good passes. He hits and battles physically. I think he stands out in a good way for a draft eligible on a top team.

I think we are drafting a defender...Nothing about the group of forwards after the top 3 really stand out...The defenders though.... WOW,might be one of the deepest D pools in a long while

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I think we are drafting a defender...Nothing about the group of forwards after the top 3 really stand out...The defenders though.... WOW,might be one of the deepest D pools in a long while

It would make sense

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

So...where is the negative with Dobson? Good size, good skater, good hand, seems to have a good IQ/vision, good defensively. Where's the risk....simply a lower ceiling than a Boqvist or Hughes?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

So...where is the negative with Dobson? Good size, good skater, good hand, seems to have a good IQ/vision, good defensively. Where's the risk....simply a lower ceiling than a Boqvist or Hughes?

IMO he is more of a real 2 way guy ; vs the smaller shiftier, more dynamic offensivley , pp qb types in Boqvist and Hughes. I think they are different types of players all 3 have high ceilings

 

[aragorn]

Concerning the video games subject, for example, I have a strong feeling that Andre Petersson was addicted and seriously, this guy had too much talent to not make the NHL. There was something that held him back.

I have read some posts making it seem like it was not that big of a deal. Well, in the real world it has been a huge problem for a while now, and also in sports. Welcome to 2018 where technology takes a lot of place and can become a major obstacle to some people



Yes we have the same players in the top-6 but the only way (unless Brown, 4th OA pick, etc) to have 2 lines contributing would be to have Stone on the 2nd line. Let Hoffman and Duchene be that dynamic duo, Dzingel also has a lot of speed and proved some offensive capabilities so that would make a good line. Dzingel has to be a complimentary piece to the top-6, he will not carry a line with Ryan and Pageau.

Like I said, we have seen good chemistry between Pageau and Stone and Pageau and Ryan before. Playing Pageau with those 2 could be the only way to make having Pageau in the Top-6 acceptable (of course, short term). Like I also said, of course Ryan and Stone have to stay healthy, which would be the challenge here. That line would also be a good matchup vs other teams top-lines, leaving a bit more opportunity to the Duchene line.

The problem is your bottom-6 that looks really bad

Smith - White - Pyatt : Pyatt is a 4th liner, White is a rookie, Smith needs to play with better players if you want him to be useful. But I think they trade him anyway, to cut salary (might be at the deadline because his price could go up before the playoffs and the youngsters would have more time to adapt to the NHL)

McCormick - Paul - Burrows : McCormick is a 13th forward, Paul is a rookie, Burrows is on his last year in the NHL, won't hurt you on the 4th line but those 3 together wouldn't score and wouldn't be that great defensively. They might try to shed Burrows salary too, we'll see

But you've seen my guess? Unfortunately not much better than yours, only bumped Chlapik to the 3rd line and Pyatt to the 4th, which could be a major improvement depending on White and Chlapik work together. Anyway, we'll see, impossible to predict right now

Agreed. The problem with this team is the one way contracts that they have & some longer term contracts. Nobody knows if this owner will allow PD to buy any player out or bury them in the minors with an NHL contract. The other problem the GM will have is money in & money out with any trades he tries to make. My guess is that EM will have another internal budget in place for next season & given the lack of attendance last yr & their inability to establish more ticket sales for next season. And who knows what that budget will be but my guess would be far below the cap ceiling & likely closer to mid-range than the floor.

It's great to put lines together & state who we think will be in the lineup but the reality is that unless something is done & approved by the owner they may be stuck with some of these players until their contracts expire. I certainly hope not but it shouldn't surprise anyone if that is the case with this guy, he clearly is having financial issues & likely constraints. If Gaborik for example does not retire & EM refuses to buy him out or bury him in the minors what can PD do? Same for Burrows. Waiving Burrows near the end of the season is much cheaper than waiving him at the beginning of the season.

Regardless of our thoughts on the matter PD may have to again include extra draft picks in trades to remove some of the hefty contracts from the roster. The lack of resources is apparently becoming the biggest issue involving this team & hurting the hockey operations.

 

[Icelevel]

Dobson and tkachuk are the types of players we need. Too bad we can’t have both. We’d be miles better immediately.

 

[aragorn]

Dobson looks like the exact type of defender this team needs....I think with EK ,Chabot,Wol we have the skilled PMD covered...Its the rock solid all situation defender we desperately need

Englund was described as a solid all situation defender like a Chris Phillips type but most on here don't like those kinds of players, they all want the PMD types.

Dobson and tkachuk are the types of players we need. Too bad we can’t have both. We’d be miles better immediately.

Check out my Detroit trade where we get both.

 

[Ouroboros]

It's great to put lines together & state who we think will be in the lineup but the reality is that unless something is done & approved by the owner they may be stuck with some of these players until their contracts expire. I certainly hope not but it shouldn't surprise anyone if that is the case with this guy, he clearly is having financial issues & likely constraints. If Gaborik for example does not retire & EM refuses to buy him out or bury him in the minors what can PD do? Same for Burrows. Waiving Burrows near the end of the season is much cheaper than waiving him at the beginning of the season.

This is the least logical course of action for an owner that is having financial trouble. Melnyk saves money by buying out Burrows and Gaborik [13.325M for riding the contracts out vs. ~8.9M for buyouts] and he gets to pay out the money over twice the time period - much less stressful on his finances. Even when accounting for replacement players buyouts still come out as the best option for dealing with these contracts.

The Senators can't enter a rebuild/re-tool and kick it off by dumping picks and prospects to get out of contracts that should simply be bought out. What message is that sending?

 

[R2010]

IMO he is more of a real 2 way guy ; vs the smaller shiftier, more dynamic offensivley , pp qb types in Boqvist and Hughes. I think they are different types of players all 3 have high ceilings

Yeah it's actually quite interesting how the winds of change turn a bit. Right now it seems that small shifty 2-way d-men are in vogue. Dobson is in his second year of junior and is already one of the best overall D-men in the CHL in terms of two-way ability so it is hard to find fault in his play.

A few things though, he isn't a deft stickhandler, he doesn't use his body enough to dominate down low while defending and he doesn't dictate the play as much as he could given his skating ability. To me, those are areas that he could easily improve and frankly as a 2nd year junior player, it is not that surprising that the latter two would take some time to develop. His footwork is very good but he could use a little bit more in his first step in terms of acceleration.

He's a better overall D-man than Chabot in his draft year and has similarly risen throughout the year. Massive potential. His skating is already NHL ready, so is his hockey IQ at both ends of the ice. Those are the two most important things to me when evaluating a big d-man.

 

[Agent Zub]

Dobson sorta reminds me of Provorov.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Yeah it's actually quite interesting how the winds of change turn a bit. Right now it seems that small shifty 2-way d-men are in vogue. Dobson is in his second year of junior and is already one of the best overall D-men in the CHL in terms of two-way ability so it is hard to find fault in his play.

A few things though, he isn't a deft stickhandler, he doesn't use his body enough to dominate down low while defending and he doesn't dictate the play as much as he could given his skating ability. To me, those are areas that he could easily improve and frankly as a 2nd year junior player, it is not that surprising that the latter two would take some time to develop. His footwork is very good but he could use a little bit more in his first step in terms of acceleration.

He's a better overall D-man than Chabot in his draft year and has similarly risen throughout the year. Massive potential. His skating is already NHL ready, so is his hockey IQ at both ends of the ice. Those are the two most important things to me when evaluating a big d-man.

That's what scares me about this draft. Tons of small defenders (and a few small forwards and goalies). What if this trend doesn't last? What happens if half the league decides to go all-in on the Winnipeg model? And how many small guys can a team realistically carry?

And on the other side of the ledger, what if the league goes the other way, and any kind of head hit is an automatic 5-minute major? All of a sudden, the really big kids like Logan Brown, and the aggressive ones like Brady Tkachuk are at a severe disadvantage when it comes to any kind of initiating of physical contact. It's hard to know which way the league will lean when they tinker with the rules and punishments every few months.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

That's what scares me about this draft. Tons of small defenders (and a few small forwards and goalies). What if this trend doesn't last? What happens if half the league decides to go all-in on the Winnipeg model? And how many small guys can a team realistically carry?

And on the other side of the ledger, what if the league goes the other way, and any kind of head hit is an automatic 5-minute major? All of a sudden, the really big kids like Logan Brown, and the aggressive ones like Brady Tkachuk are at a severe disadvantage when it comes to any kind of initiating of physical contact. It's hard to know which way the league will lean when they tinker with the rules and punishments every few months.

I don't think the pendulum is ready to swing back. Speed and skill is the way to go... You can't be just a perimeter player though you have to have courage no matter what to play in the tough areas. If you can get a big guy with the speed , and skill , it will always lean towards that ..the reach /size/ weight is an advantage a lot of the time, everything else being equal. Look at Tyler Johnson or Braydon Point . not very big .. but they have absolutely no fear and use their speed and skill to as much advantage as they can. But size for size sake .. or without the speed and mobility .. doesn't work anymore and won't for quite a while if it ever goes back there. The game is getting better. More skill , more speed, more ability to execute at speed .... bring it on.

 

[ChurchOfAlfie]

Dobson sorta reminds me of Provorov.

That's the vibe I get too, and Provorov is a f***ing monster.

 

[Hale The Villain]

So...where is the negative with Dobson? Good size, good skater, good hand, seems to have a good IQ/vision, good defensively. Where's the risk....simply a lower ceiling than a Boqvist or Hughes?

Lower offensive ceiling than those two guys? Sure.

Lower all-around ceiling than those two guys? Nope.

His potential as a two-way D is superior to both. Might produce less offense in his prime than either guy, but should be much better defensively.

 

[bdp]

So...where is the negative with Dobson? Good size, good skater, good hand, seems to have a good IQ/vision, good defensively. Where's the risk....simply a lower ceiling than a Boqvist or Hughes?

He does seem to check off every box, it's kinda weird to me that he's consistently rated closer to #10 than the top 5. Kinda reminds of Ceci in that regard. Just on a superficial standpoint, when you look at their stats, size, skill in junior, all looks good but not that highly rated.

 

[Icelevel]

Dobson sorta reminds me of Provorov.

Dobson is more two way compared to provorov I think.

 

[Agent Zub]

Dobson is more two way compared to provorov I think.

Provorov is pretty much the definition of two way.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Provorov is pretty much the definition of two way.

Gonna disagree with that especially when Provorov was the same age as Dobson.

 

[Agent Zub]

Gonna disagree with that especially when Provorov was the same age as Dobson.

are you saying that Provorov was more advanced?

 

[aragorn]

I'm gonna stick with Tkachuk although I still think that PD drafts Bodqvist. Hope I'm wrong but I would be fine with any one of Zadina, Svechnikov, Bouchard or Dobson too.

 

[Sens in Process]

So...where is the negative with Dobson? Good size, good skater, good hand, seems to have a good IQ/vision, good defensively. Where's the risk....simply a lower ceiling than a Boqvist or Hughes?

I can attempt to answer this question.

He is a bit clumsy and scrambily with the puck. He doesn't have those smooth hands where he controls the puck easily
He is not the cleanest exit passer out of the defensive zone. In my viewings, there were several misses and blind looks that strayed from the target.
He can get beat when players drive wide on him.
There is a kind of stiffness to his game.

Steady 25-30 point d-man is his floor.