If you compare major players with prior reputations and/or nominations, statistically it goes:
Couturier: 55.3% xGF% (2.11xGA/60).......70.3GF%.......25 points in 23 games
Barkov: 53.4% xGF% (2.01xGA/60)........ .53.6 GF%.......21 points in 21 games
Koivu: 57.3% xGF% (1.83xGA/60)............43.2% GF%......15 points in 22 games
Backlund: 56.5% xGF% (1.53xGA/60).......40% GF%.......14 points in 22 games
Bergeron: 49.7% xGF% (2.48xGA/60)........74.1% GF%.....13 points in 16 games
Kopitar: 47.9% xGF% (2.56 xGA/60)..........51.8% GF%......25 points in 23 games
I imagine that the Selke voters wouldn't mind fresh blood. It's not even like it'd be gifted. Kopitar hilariously enough is having a bounce back year by not being good defensively to improve offense. He's been scoring great, but it's been a little hollow as a 2-way player. Bergeron has been injured too and hasn't been as good as usual in the underlying numbers, but his raw ones are there, and these voters aren't looking that deep. All these players have similarly great face-off %s (which is something the voters probably would single out). Really it looks like Barkov and Couturier should be significantly above everyone else by every metric combined. Sound underlying numbers, dynamic scoring numbers individually, and on-ice results. It's not at all outlandish to say Couturier is the present front-runner.