Schools of Thought: Late Rounders

[PecaFan]

How about no? You can't seriously believe you can categorize human beings like that(personality traits aside).

? Of course I'm serious. I don't even know why you would question it, it's perfectly obvious and intuitive.

It's a cold hard fact that the highest percentage chance of making the NHL comes from 1st rounders. 2nd rounders turn out to be NHL'ers slightly less than 1st rounders, third rounders less than that, and so on down the line.

It's 100% fact that 5th rounders have a slightly higher percentage of making the NHL than 7th rounders.

And the second part of my claim, that the guy you take first is expected to be better than the guy you take later, is also perfectly obvious. Nobody is out there intentionally leaving better players on the board for other teams to take.

Yes, the percentages are made up, nobody would be so stupid as to claim they knew the actual percentage.

 

[19 for president]

I think it is a mixture of both luck and a great scouting staff.

NHLers
Zetterberg 210th overall
Filppula 95th overall
Datsyuk 171st overall
Holmstrom 257th overall
Franzen 97th overall
Hudler 58th overall
Lidstrom 53rd overall
Lebda (undrafted)
Williams (undrafted)
Avery (undrafted)

Castoffs (signed from Europe or trade for nothing)
Lilja
Sammuelsson
Cleary
Draper
Maltby


Likely NHLers:
Jonathan Ericsson 291st overall (last pick) (4-5 dman)
Igor Grigerenko 62nd overall (1st line to not making the NHL)
Derek Meech 229th overall (bottom pair dman)
Kyle Quincey 132nd overall (3-5 dman)
Darren Helm 132nd overall (3rd/4th line grinder)
Jan Mursak 182nd overall (top 6 scoring winger)
Johan Ryno 137th overall (top 9 scoring winger)
Jimmy Howard 64th overall (starting goalie)
Daniel Larsson 92nd overall (backup goalie)

The Wings have not had a lot of 1st and 2nd round picks and if they do they know that there is an excellent chance that they won't by the time the draft comes up. I think for this reason the Wings spend a greater deal of time scouting unknown Euros and lesser known NA players. That is not to say they don't have a great deal of busts. Loftberg and Blom jump to my mind as being two that were probably taken earlier than needed and turned out badly. Though Loftberg supposedly has had major personal issues and not skill issues. I think the luck really comes in with guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Where you get all stars so low in the draft. Yeah it is great scouting, but if Dats doesn't gain the stature he probably is still in Russia.

 

[Blades 0f Steel]

? Of course I'm serious. I don't even know why you would question it, it's perfectly obvious and intuitive.

It's a cold hard fact that the highest percentage chance of making the NHL comes from 1st rounders. 2nd rounders turn out to be NHL'ers slightly less than 1st rounders, third rounders less than that, and so on down the line.

It's 100% fact that 5th rounders have a slightly higher percentage of making the NHL than 7th rounders.

And the second part of my claim, that the guy you take first is expected to be better than the guy you take later, is also perfectly obvious. Nobody is out there intentionally leaving better players on the board for other teams to take.

Yes, the percentages are made up, nobody would be so stupid as to claim they knew the actual percentage.

that's what I was talking about.

 

[timlap]

. . .
It's a cold hard fact that the highest percentage chance of making the NHL comes from 1st rounders. 2nd rounders turn out to be NHL'ers slightly less than 1st rounders, third rounders less than that, and so on down the line.
...

Might this pattern break down in the later rounds? Are we really sure that more 6th rounders make than 8th rounders? Or more 8th rounders than 9th rounders (when those rounds existed)?

 

[PecaFan]

that's what I was talking about.

That's why my statement was written in the hypothetical to start with, by using the word "say".

Might this pattern break down in the later rounds? Are we really sure that more 6th rounders make than 8th rounders? Or more 8th rounders than 9th rounders (when those rounds existed)?

Oh, absolutely no doubt. It's very much asymptotic, more approaching zero games played the later the pick. From a very good paper on drafting success at http://ideas.repec.org/p/mcm/deptwp/2000-04.html

You can really see why first and early second rounders are so key, the dropoff is dramatic.

 

[Merlin401]

You also have to take into account the concept of organizational development. If five teams (in parallel universes) all drafted the same player in the same slot, that player would likely have five markedly different careers based on the development systems within each franchise.

First off, nice job with the Neutral Milk Hotel avatar (bet not many people pick up on that, eh). This place is pretty cultured: the other day I saw a Wowee Zowee avatar.

Anyway, I think this post is correct. The early round guys have so much ability that they are going to develop no matter what organization they're in. The later round guys are more likely to become role players, and if the organization supports their niche career path they will flourish: otherwise they'll bust because they're "not scoring enough goals" or because they tried to force them into the wrong role for them.