Salary Cap: Salary Cap & Roster Building - Locked in until July

[Sidney the Kidney]

I mean he can ask for 13 million but doesn’t mean he’ll get it. I used 11.5 mil in my workings and had no real trouble fitting that in.

The cap will be around 80 - 82 million by then and I doubt Sheary or Hunwick will still be around.

You don't think some team would be willing to pay Karlsson $13 million a year if he reached UFA status? The talking heads on TSN talk about a guy like Tavares getting offered $15 million per year if he reaches July 1st, and IMO, Karlsson's a better player than him.

I'd be absolutely shocked if Karlsson signs for anything less than $12 million. But I think he's more likely going to end up in the $13-$13.5 million range.

 

[Tom Hanks]

You don't think some team would be willing to pay Karlsson $13 million a year if he reached UFA status? The talking heads on TSN talk about a guy like Tavares getting offered $15 million per year if he reaches July 1st, and IMO, Karlsson's a better player than him.

I'd be absolutely shocked if Karlsson signs for anything less than $12 million. But I think he's more likely going to end up in the $13-$13.5 million range.

It doesn’t matter too much anyway. If we are trading for him it’s with an extension and we’ll know exactly what he’s after and if we could afford it.

It’s all talk until the contract is signed. The media always talk up bigger numbers.

 

[Empoleon8771]

With Karlsson, I think it honestly depends on the kind of person he is. Look at what Stamkos did with Tampa Bay, he took seriously under market value to stay with Tampa. He easily could have hit $10 or $11 million in free agency, yet he took less to stay with Tampa Bay. It wouldn't be the same as signing a free agent, but maybe Karlsson wants to come here enough to take a reasonable (but still high) cap hit.

Although was it Karlsson or Doughty who said that they were going wherever paid them the most money? I want to say it was Karlsson, I think Doughty said that all he cares about is winning cups.

 

[Riptide]

With Karlsson, I think it honestly depends on the kind of person he is. Look at what Stamkos did with Tampa Bay, he took seriously under market value to stay with Tampa. He easily could have hit $10 or $11 million in free agency, yet he took less to stay with Tampa Bay. It wouldn't be the same as signing a free agent, but maybe Karlsson wants to come here enough to take a reasonable (but still high) cap hit.

Although was it Karlsson or Doughty who said that they were going wherever paid them the most money? I want to say it was Karlsson, I think Doughty said that all he cares about is winning cups.

Not quite the same thing. Part of that is the fact that the contract he took in TB (take home) is the same as if he'd taken 10m in Toronto. That said, I tend to agree with your overall point. If Karlsson is looking to get paid, someone (potentially even Ottawa) will pay him. However if he's looking to play for a contending team, he's going to have to take a discount into that 9-11m range. Not that he's not worth more - he is. But there's very few true contenders that can afford to add in a 10m+ player - even one as good as Karlsson. Especially when you factor in the term and how other players will also need raises.

 

[KIRK]

Lol it's not the most realistic scenario, but if we've got only about 3 years of elite Sid and Geno left, it'll amount to nothing if Letang continues on his current trend and he's the lynchpin of the defense.

This Letang is as likely to help the Pens lose a series as he is to help them win one.

And, with that window of elite Sid and Geno limited, how much of it do you want to gamble on Letang magically becoming the player he was two years ago?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I'm about done with Sheary on the Pens. Moving him this summer would be my top priority.

 

[KIRK]

I'm about done with Sheary on the Pens. Moving him this summer would be my top priority.

Hunwick too.

Moving the dead weight will help.

BUT, the defensive still needs a real makeover.

 

[Brandinho]

With Karlsson, I think it honestly depends on the kind of person he is. Look at what Stamkos did with Tampa Bay, he took seriously under market value to stay with Tampa. He easily could have hit $10 or $11 million in free agency, yet he took less to stay with Tampa Bay. It wouldn't be the same as signing a free agent, but maybe Karlsson wants to come here enough to take a reasonable (but still high) cap hit.

Although was it Karlsson or Doughty who said that they were going wherever paid them the most money? I want to say it was Karlsson, I think Doughty said that all he cares about is winning cups.

There's no income tax in Florida. I'm sure that played a large part in what Stamkos was willing to accept.

 

[Turin]

Hunwick, Sheary and Schultz take up almost a Karlsson amount of cap space. Just sayin.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I'm about done with Sheary on the Pens. Moving him this summer would be my top priority.

I don't know what happened to that guy's game. He was always a bit of a spazz and had his moments where he looked like he'd never skated before, but more often than not he looked like a non-stop motor with decent puck skills.

I hope the fact he's now a multi-millionaire didn't somehow affect his preparation and training.

 

[Pens1566]

There's no income tax in Florida. I'm sure that played a large part in what Stamkos was willing to accept.

It was also the team he's played for his entire career. Seeing how Karlsson is unlikely to be in that scenario (on the outs with Ottawa), I can't see it being a factor in his decision.

 

[Slaaapshuter]

It was also the team he's played for his entire career. Seeing how Karlsson is unlikely to be in that scenario (on the outs with Ottawa), I can't see it being a factor in his decision.

Hedman also took a big discount, but I don't think neither him or Stamkos motivation was to be nice to their "home town" team. I think (and Hedman said so in an interview) they took the discounts to enable Tampa to be as successful as possible on ice.

So Karlsson could do the same thing even as FA depending on what his motives are.

 

[House of tpo]

Hunwick too.

Moving the dead weight will help.

BUT, the defensive still needs a real makeover.

I agree with you it does need an over haul the problem is do you realistically think another team is going to want letang at his salary see i dont and that's where it has start removing him

 

[Pens1566]

Hedman also took a big discount, but I don't think neither him or Stamkos motivation was to be nice to their "home town" team. I think (and Hedman said so in an interview) they took the discounts to enable Tampa to be as successful as possible on ice.

So Karlsson could do the same thing even as FA depending on what his motives are.

Eh, it's called hometown for a reason. And, it's not to be "nice" to their team. It's because they feel some connection, and usually because the team is better than decent with a chance to be contenders.

I can't remember the last time a top tier player signed elsewhere for less than market.

 

[Slaaapshuter]

Eh, it's called hometown for a reason. And, it's not to be "nice" to their team. It's because they feel some connection, and usually because the team is better than decent with a chance to be contenders.

I can't remember the last time a top tier player signed elsewhere for less than market.

Well, I can't remember when a real top tier player was actually available on the FA market so it's hard to judge. And also, not less than market but rather not the highest the market has to offer. But there's many examples of top tier players not giving a discount to their team (most recently McDavid and Price).

They give discounts for a shot of winning is my point, and McDavid and Price isn't winning anything (and they know it) while Hedman and Stamkos does have a chance. The latter players gave discounts.

 

[Slaaapshuter]

I think many teams want Letang at his salary, at least half the league. But I think Montreal in particular would be very interested.

Question is price I guess.

3-way trade between us, Montreal and Ottawa just makes too much sense. Montreal gets a french-canadian D, Ottawa sheds salary (plus adding some young pieces for their cheap rebuild) and Pitt gets EK. We don't have the young, cheap assets I'm assuming Ottawa is looking for (based on their actions this season), but perhaps Montreal have them and is willing to part with for a french-canadian.

Also, EK only have one year left so even if he is a world class player he likely isn't getting the return of the century.

Is Letang saying no to a move to Montreal? Maybe, probably... Backup plan is to change out Montreal for Vegas...

I think madman Rutherford will be active during the draft. And he's crazy enough to pull something like this off.

But in this theoretical fairyland, switching out Letang for EK means the soffness on D needs to be addressed even more. So two new tough tits in the mix is needed.

Dumoulin - Very solid defensively, but provides nothing on offense and is soff
Schultz - Provides offense, ok defensively but is soff
Määttä - Provides offense, ok defensively at best but is soff
Oleksiak - Solid on defense with his reach, tough tit
Ruhwedel - Mobile and with ok puck handling, ok defensively but soff

 

[Riptide]

Dumoulin - Very solid defensively, but provides nothing on offense and is soff
Schultz - Provides offense, ok defensively but is soff
Määttä - Provides offense, ok defensively at best but is soff
Oleksiak - Solid on defense with his reach, tough tit
Ruhwedel - Mobile and with ok puck handling, ok defensively but soff

This is a weird one to me. He is very good at moving the puck. Not Schultz or Letang level, but he moves the puck very very well. And he can skate it out if he needs to. And yet for whatever reason that never seems to get reflected in his production, as he put's up Ruhwedel type numbers. And since we acquired Oleksiak, Dumoulin's physical game seems to have gotten a lot better. It's not reflected in any stats, but it seems like he's engaging and initiating hits more since Dec.

 

[Slaaapshuter]

This is a weird one to me. He is very good at moving the puck. Not Schultz or Letang level, but he moves the puck very very well. And he can skate it out if he needs to. And yet for whatever reason that never seems to get reflected in his production, as he put's up Ruhwedel type numbers.

Yes, I have no problem with Dumoulins defensive play with the puck. What I'm pointing at is his production, he obviously doesn't score goals and weirdly enough considering his TOI not a whole lot of assists either.

So what can you really say other than he doesn't provide offense? I have no problem with Dumoulin at all, I think he's great.

 

[The Old Master]

I don't know what happened to that guy's game. He was always a bit of a spazz and had his moments where he looked like he'd never skated before, but more often than not he looked like a non-stop motor with decent puck skills

he's a comp. roll player that's needs the other members doing their roles to succeed in his. and that's not happening this year.

 

[Pens1566]

Well, I can't remember when a real top tier player was actually available on the FA market so it's hard to judge. And also, not less than market but rather not the highest the market has to offer. But there's many examples of top tier players not giving a discount to their team (most recently McDavid and Price).

That they hardly ever hit the market means they want to stay. And no, not all take a discount. No one is claiming that. You've pointed out 4 examples where they all re-signed though. Karlsson appears to be gone given all that's happened around Ottawa in recent history.

They give discounts for a shot of winning is my point, and McDavid and Price isn't winning anything (and they know it) while Hedman and Stamkos does have a chance. The latter players gave discounts.

Discounts and having a chance to win are not mutually exclusive. I think they're actually more correlated. See above examples. I don't think it's a coincidence that Stamkos and Hedman helping out the team by taking less money has been a benefit to TB on the ice. Oilers have issues with bad contracts, and Montreal just plain stinks. You kind of see this with Chicago as well with the Toews and Kane deals causing them to jettison good players so they can fit the deals in. Problem being, anyone that is a likely contender, or in a good spot to be, isn't likely to have the cap necessary to bring in someone like a Karlsson. At least not without some restructuring which may/may not impact their on ice performance.

All signs point to him getting PAID when hits FA. I could see a possible exception being Vegas. But that's so hard to predict given their unique situation.

 

[Slaaapshuter]

That they hardly ever hit the market means they want to stay. And no, not all take a discount. No one is claiming that. You've pointed out 4 examples where they all re-signed though. Karlsson appears to be gone given all that's happened around Ottawa in recent history.



Discounts and having a chance to win are not mutually exclusive. I think they're actually more correlated. See above examples. I don't think it's a coincidence that Stamkos and Hedman helping out the team by taking less money has been a benefit to TB on the ice. Oilers have issues with bad contracts, and Montreal just plain stinks. You kind of see this with Chicago as well with the Toews and Kane deals causing them to jettison good players so they can fit the deals in. Problem being, anyone that is a likely contender, or in a good spot to be, isn't likely to have the cap necessary to bring in someone like a Karlsson. At least not without some restructuring which may/may not impact their on ice performance.

All signs point to him getting PAID when hits FA. I could see a possible exception being Vegas. But that's so hard to predict given their unique situation.

I'm not 100% sure we have such a different position. I think you are absolutely right in that familiarity and comfort are factors when it comes to re-signing with your "hometown club", I'm less sure about that being factors when it comes to the discount part. I think the primary factor in driving discounts are the chances of winning, and that's why I brought up McDavid/Price vs Hedman/Stamkos and it seems you partly agrees with that.

I'm just saying that I think that (chance of winning) is not only applicable to re-signing hometown players, but could (not an absolute) be a factor for a FA as well.

Karlsson is getting PAID, but the more you make the less difference absolute dollars make. So if the highest bidder is 12m (with zero chance of a cup) and a real contenders bid is 10m, I don't think it's 100% he is taking the highest bid.

 

[Riptide]

Yes, I have no problem with Dumoulins defensive play with the puck. What I'm pointing at is his production, he obviously doesn't score goals and weirdly enough considering his TOI not a whole lot of assists either.

So what can you really say other than he doesn't provide offense? I have no problem with Dumoulin at all, I think he's great.

That people get too worked up about players individual numbers. It's not like he's a black hole out there when he's on the ice. The team still scores a lot whether he's there or not.

 

[Slaaapshuter]

That people get too worked up about players individual numbers. It's not like he's a black hole out there when he's on the ice. The team still scores a lot whether he's there or not.

I never said he was a black hole, I said he didn't really contribute offensively. And considering that statistically in terms of PPG he only beats Ruhwedel in terms of point production (he is below Oleksiak and Hunwick), what else is there to say? I'm not arguing if Dumoulin is valuable to us, because he very much is. I'm just saying he's contribution isn't really on the offensive side of things.

Which is why my analysis of him is, very solid defensively and is able to handle top pairing minutes. But he is not the D to give you a lot of offense. Again, not a black hole offensively as he can carry himself in that zone and help out in other ways. But he isn't blasting bombs from the blueline or doing any game changing passes that leads to goal while in the offensive zone. Both being evidenced by stats and eye.

 

[Riptide]

I never said he was a black hole, I said he didn't really contribute offensively. And considering that statistically in terms of PPG he only beats Ruhwedel in terms of point production (he is below Oleksiak and Hunwick), what else is there to say? I'm not arguing if Dumoulin is valuable to us, because he very much is. I'm just saying he's contribution isn't really on the offensive side of things.

Which is why my analysis of him is, very solid defensively and is able to handle top pairing minutes. But he is not the D to give you a lot of offense. Again, not a black hole offensively as he can carry himself in that zone and help out in other ways. But he isn't blasting bombs from the blueline or doing any game changing passes that leads to goal while in the offensive zone. Both being evidenced by stats and eye.

Like I said... people put way too much emphases on a players individual points, and less so on what they do for the team. You're equating his personal lack of points with an overall lack of production from the team - which isn't the case as the team (and his linemates) produce just fine when he's on the ice.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Doubt it's likely, but it's encouraging that the Penguins aren't reported to be out yet. They could give him games in the NHL immediately if he requires that.

Just thinking about it, I think the Penguins might have a really good chance here. Their defense isn't good, so Brickley could immediately challenge for a spot. Pittsburgh has noted success with developing and fixing defensemen, I think people underrate the Penguins with development because Pouliot was a bust. They consistently turn defensemen into big money makers. They're a contending team right now.

To top it off, it seems like the Penguins were always in the mix for guys like Reilly, Vesey and Schultz when all the above wasn't even true. They just had Crosby and Malkin, which put the Penguins in heavy contention for almost everyone.