Ryan Murray = 2nd pairing dman?

[CBJx614]

I am neither critic nor fan of Ryan Murray. But the potshots are getting ridiculous.

Any defensive D-man is not going to post statistically good numbers...RM's primary job is to keep the puck out of the net, and occasionally help teammates put the puck in the net. Your post equates "good play statistically" with finding "any quantifiable evidence of his offensive prowess." They aren't the same, and you know that. There are great D-men whose primary role is to keep the puck out of the net, not post offensive stats. I am not suggesting RM is a great D-man, yet, but he is not the scum of the earth that you make him out to be in every third post.

The few advanced possession metrics show that while RM is not a huge Corsi or Fenwick stuffer (CF 48.3% for career, FF 48.8%), those numbers are weighted by who he played with and his role. And those numbers are not bad, actually good for a stay-at-home D-man. And for this season, CF is 49.2%, FF is 51.2%.

His ES D-zone starts are 51.3% for his career, 53.1% for this season. So while not a huge difference, more of his starts are in the D-zone, which will affect CF% and FF%.

His EXPECTED +/- is a -1.8 for his career, a -1.5 for this season. Last season his expected +/- was -3.9.
His ACTUAL +/- is a 0 for his career. a +2 for this season. Last season his actual +/- was +3.

So his presence on the ice was worth a positive 6.9 goals last year based on that stat, and roughly 3.5 goals so far this season.

Some measurement of a defensively minded D-man would would be on-ice GF/GA.
For this season, RM's on-ice GF/60 is 1.9. GA/60 is 1.7

Some comparisons, many of whom are much more offensively-geared D-men for ON ICE GF/60 and GA/60

Subban ON GF/60 3.0 GA/60 2.2
Weber GF/60 2.1 GA/60 3.4
Seth GF/60 2.5 GA/60 2.3
Zach GF/60 2.7 GA/60 2.4
Doughty GF/60 3.3 GA/60 2.5
Burns GF/60 2.3 GA/60 3.2

JJ GF/60 2.2 GA/60 2.8
Savard GF/60 2.8 GA/60 2.8
Kukan GF/60 4.6 GA/60 3.1 (10 game sample but wow if you are into stats - 14th in league, including forwards).
Nutti GF/60 2.2 GA/1.7


You won't find Murray in the stats for goals, assists, points. That's not his game. Roughly 95% of the stats kept, advanced or otherwise, are geared to offense. That isn't Ryan Murray, was never supposed to be. He doesn't play on the PP - and probably shouldn't, not with Seth and Z on this team. Admittedly his 1.9 GF/60 puts him tied for #601 in the NHL. On the other hand is 1.9 GA/60 puts him tied for #101 in the NHL, and the top 41 in that stat are all at 0.0 and all have played 7 games or less. In fact 57 of the top 100 in that stat have played less than 10 games. So among players who are not statistical anomalies due to low number of games, RM is close to the top 40 statistically with regard to the puck not going in the net when he's on the ice.

I'm not suggesting he's top 40. It would be great if 1.9 GF/60 were 2.5 and the GA/60 stayed as is. But he is a solid defensive D-man, and the few stats that might measure that, albeit imprecisely, support that he is very good at keeping the puck out of the net.

When RM is on the ice, the CBJ are a plus .2 per 60 minutes. Same as Seth. Not as good as Doughty. And you may try to allocate the credit for that to goal tending - but then other "better" CBJ defensemen should have better GA/60 than RM's 1.7. They don't - Nutti is the same and he's the only one close. The gap is .6/.7, all the way up to 1.1.

All of the above compiled from the NHL Hockey Reference site: NHL Advanced Stats / Analytics | Hockey-Reference.com

None of the above makes RM better than Seth or Z... but the above is some statistical that supports RM as a solid D-man in the NHL. I get that may not be what you want, or what some expect a 2nd OA pick to be. But at $2.825M, he's a steal. He won't be commanding a huge increase. And he will keep the puck out of the net more regularly than most. We aren't goal-starved on the backend - we are goal-starved on the front end.

No one has argued that Ryan Murray is or has performed as an all-star. He may never get to that level, probably won't.
But the constant kvetching about a player who has admittedly been oft-injured, for not playing enough games or not having offensive-weighted statistics, has become downright sickening and makes me stay off of here at times. But I enjoy reading and occasionally posting here. So I am entitled to voice my objection just as much as you are entitled to voice your opinion. Fair honest critique of a player, all good. But every freaking post in this and GDT and any other unrelated thread ends up being about RM, to the point of nausea and to the point that many of the good opinions you have get lost because they are dismissed before even read. And the fact that there aren't many statistics to show RM as a good d-man - yeah, what else is new. Stats generally are about scoring goals - and there are some players whose role is not to stuff the score sheet but to keep the other team from doing that.

I know, everyone is entitled to post their opinion - So am I. It's just tiring to keep reading this stuff on a site I'd like to enjoy.

You forgot to drop the mic

 

[cslebn]

I am neither critic nor fan of Ryan Murray. But the potshots are getting ridiculous.

Any defensive D-man is not going to post statistically good numbers...RM's primary job is to keep the puck out of the net, and occasionally help teammates put the puck in the net. Your post equates "good play statistically" with finding "any quantifiable evidence of his offensive prowess." They aren't the same, and you know that. There are great D-men whose primary role is to keep the puck out of the net, not post offensive stats. I am not suggesting RM is a great D-man, yet, but he is not the scum of the earth that you make him out to be in every third post.

The few advanced possession metrics show that while RM is not a huge Corsi or Fenwick stuffer (CF 48.3% for career, FF 48.8%), those numbers are weighted by who he played with and his role. And those numbers are not bad, actually good for a stay-at-home D-man. And for this season, CF is 49.2%, FF is 51.2%.

His ES D-zone starts are 51.3% for his career, 53.1% for this season. So while not a huge difference, more of his starts are in the D-zone, which will affect CF% and FF%.

His EXPECTED +/- is a -1.8 for his career, a -1.5 for this season. Last season his expected +/- was -3.9.
His ACTUAL +/- is a 0 for his career. a +2 for this season. Last season his actual +/- was +3.

So his presence on the ice was worth a positive 6.9 goals last year based on that stat, and roughly 3.5 goals so far this season.

Some measurement of a defensively minded D-man would would be on-ice GF/GA.
For this season, RM's on-ice GF/60 is 1.9. GA/60 is 1.7

Some comparisons, many of whom are much more offensively-geared D-men for ON ICE GF/60 and GA/60

Subban ON GF/60 3.0 GA/60 2.2
Weber GF/60 2.1 GA/60 3.4
Seth GF/60 2.5 GA/60 2.3
Zach GF/60 2.7 GA/60 2.4
Doughty GF/60 3.3 GA/60 2.5
Burns GF/60 2.3 GA/60 3.2

JJ GF/60 2.2 GA/60 2.8
Savard GF/60 2.8 GA/60 2.8
Kukan GF/60 4.6 GA/60 3.1 (10 game sample but wow if you are into stats - 14th in league, including forwards).
Nutti GF/60 2.2 GA/1.7


You won't find Murray in the stats for goals, assists, points. That's not his game. Roughly 95% of the stats kept, advanced or otherwise, are geared to offense. That isn't Ryan Murray, was never supposed to be. He doesn't play on the PP - and probably shouldn't, not with Seth and Z on this team. Admittedly his 1.9 GF/60 puts him tied for #601 in the NHL. On the other hand is 1.9 GA/60 puts him tied for #101 in the NHL, and the top 41 in that stat are all at 0.0 and all have played 7 games or less. In fact 57 of the top 100 in that stat have played less than 10 games. So among players who are not statistical anomalies due to low number of games, RM is close to the top 40 statistically with regard to the puck not going in the net when he's on the ice.

I'm not suggesting he's top 40. It would be great if 1.9 GF/60 were 2.5 and the GA/60 stayed as is. But he is a solid defensive D-man, and the few stats that might measure that, albeit imprecisely, support that he is very good at keeping the puck out of the net.

When RM is on the ice, the CBJ are a plus .2 per 60 minutes. Same as Seth. Not as good as Doughty. And you may try to allocate the credit for that to goal tending - but then other "better" CBJ defensemen should have better GA/60 than RM's 1.7. They don't - Nutti is the same and he's the only one close. The gap is .6/.7, all the way up to 1.1.

All of the above compiled from the NHL Hockey Reference site: NHL Advanced Stats / Analytics | Hockey-Reference.com

None of the above makes RM better than Seth or Z... but the above is some statistical that supports RM as a solid D-man in the NHL. I get that may not be what you want, or what some expect a 2nd OA pick to be. But at $2.825M, he's a steal. He won't be commanding a huge increase. And he will keep the puck out of the net more regularly than most. We aren't goal-starved on the backend - we are goal-starved on the front end.

No one has argued that Ryan Murray is or has performed as an all-star. He may never get to that level, probably won't.
But the constant kvetching about a player who has admittedly been oft-injured, for not playing enough games or not having offensive-weighted statistics, has become downright sickening and makes me stay off of here at times. But I enjoy reading and occasionally posting here. So I am entitled to voice my objection just as much as you are entitled to voice your opinion. Fair honest critique of a player, all good. But every freaking post in this and GDT and any other unrelated thread ends up being about RM, to the point of nausea and to the point that many of the good opinions you have get lost because they are dismissed before even read. And the fact that there aren't many statistics to show RM as a good d-man - yeah, what else is new. Stats generally are about scoring goals - and there are some players whose role is not to stuff the score sheet but to keep the other team from doing that.

I know, everyone is entitled to post their opinion - So am I. It's just tiring to keep reading this stuff on a site I'd like to enjoy.

Beautiful post.

I like that people can disagree on stuff but like you this board has too lately been filed with vitriol that seems unnecessary. So for you to post this is well needed.

 

[KJ Dangler]

I am neither critic nor fan of Ryan Murray. But the potshots are getting ridiculous.

Any defensive D-man is not going to post statistically good numbers...RM's primary job is to keep the puck out of the net, and occasionally help teammates put the puck in the net. Your post equates "good play statistically" with finding "any quantifiable evidence of his offensive prowess." They aren't the same, and you know that. There are great D-men whose primary role is to keep the puck out of the net, not post offensive stats. I am not suggesting RM is a great D-man, yet, but he is not the scum of the earth that you make him out to be in every third post.

The few advanced possession metrics show that while RM is not a huge Corsi or Fenwick stuffer (CF 48.3% for career, FF 48.8%), those numbers are weighted by who he played with and his role. And those numbers are not bad, actually good for a stay-at-home D-man. And for this season, CF is 49.2%, FF is 51.2%.

His ES D-zone starts are 51.3% for his career, 53.1% for this season. So while not a huge difference, more of his starts are in the D-zone, which will affect CF% and FF%.

His EXPECTED +/- is a -1.8 for his career, a -1.5 for this season. Last season his expected +/- was -3.9.
His ACTUAL +/- is a 0 for his career. a +2 for this season. Last season his actual +/- was +3.

So his presence on the ice was worth a positive 6.9 goals last year based on that stat, and roughly 3.5 goals so far this season.

Some measurement of a defensively minded D-man would would be on-ice GF/GA.
For this season, RM's on-ice GF/60 is 1.9. GA/60 is 1.7

Some comparisons, many of whom are much more offensively-geared D-men for ON ICE GF/60 and GA/60

Subban ON GF/60 3.0 GA/60 2.2
Weber GF/60 2.1 GA/60 3.4
Seth GF/60 2.5 GA/60 2.3
Zach GF/60 2.7 GA/60 2.4
Doughty GF/60 3.3 GA/60 2.5
Burns GF/60 2.3 GA/60 3.2

JJ GF/60 2.2 GA/60 2.8
Savard GF/60 2.8 GA/60 2.8
Kukan GF/60 4.6 GA/60 3.1 (10 game sample but wow if you are into stats - 14th in league, including forwards).
Nutti GF/60 2.2 GA/1.7


You won't find Murray in the stats for goals, assists, points. That's not his game. Roughly 95% of the stats kept, advanced or otherwise, are geared to offense. That isn't Ryan Murray, was never supposed to be. He doesn't play on the PP - and probably shouldn't, not with Seth and Z on this team. Admittedly his 1.9 GF/60 puts him tied for #601 in the NHL. On the other hand is 1.9 GA/60 puts him tied for #101 in the NHL, and the top 41 in that stat are all at 0.0 and all have played 7 games or less. In fact 57 of the top 100 in that stat have played less than 10 games. So among players who are not statistical anomalies due to low number of games, RM is close to the top 40 statistically with regard to the puck not going in the net when he's on the ice.

I'm not suggesting he's top 40. It would be great if 1.9 GF/60 were 2.5 and the GA/60 stayed as is. But he is a solid defensive D-man, and the few stats that might measure that, albeit imprecisely, support that he is very good at keeping the puck out of the net.

When RM is on the ice, the CBJ are a plus .2 per 60 minutes. Same as Seth. Not as good as Doughty. And you may try to allocate the credit for that to goal tending - but then other "better" CBJ defensemen should have better GA/60 than RM's 1.7. They don't - Nutti is the same and he's the only one close. The gap is .6/.7, all the way up to 1.1.

All of the above compiled from the NHL Hockey Reference site: NHL Advanced Stats / Analytics | Hockey-Reference.com

None of the above makes RM better than Seth or Z... but the above is some statistical that supports RM as a solid D-man in the NHL. I get that may not be what you want, or what some expect a 2nd OA pick to be. But at $2.825M, he's a steal. He won't be commanding a huge increase. And he will keep the puck out of the net more regularly than most. We aren't goal-starved on the backend - we are goal-starved on the front end.

No one has argued that Ryan Murray is or has performed as an all-star. He may never get to that level, probably won't.
But the constant kvetching about a player who has admittedly been oft-injured, for not playing enough games or not having offensive-weighted statistics, has become downright sickening and makes me stay off of here at times. But I enjoy reading and occasionally posting here. So I am entitled to voice my objection just as much as you are entitled to voice your opinion. Fair honest critique of a player, all good. But every freaking post in this and GDT and any other unrelated thread ends up being about RM, to the point of nausea and to the point that many of the good opinions you have get lost because they are dismissed before even read. And the fact that there aren't many statistics to show RM as a good d-man - yeah, what else is new. Stats generally are about scoring goals - and there are some players whose role is not to stuff the score sheet but to keep the other team from doing that.

I know, everyone is entitled to post their opinion - So am I. It's just tiring to keep reading this stuff on a site I'd like to enjoy.

My point wasn’t on his performance, which is between nothing great, and pretty steady. Give me Ian Cole all day long though. I don’t see Murray as a great value for 3 mill per season, when he plays in 55% of the games .

 

[Mayor Bee]

My point wasn’t on his performance, which is between nothing great, and pretty steady. Give me Ian Cole all day long though. I don’t see Murray as a great value for 3 mill per season, when he plays in 55% of the games .

The only way to get 55% is if you're banking on him making the team in 2012-13, which wasn't going to happen.

He'd worn #27 his entire career to that point, and his chances of actually making the NHL in his first camp were so remote that he was given #45 instead. That was in developmental camp.

 

[Mayor Bee]

I am neither critic nor fan of Ryan Murray. But the potshots are getting ridiculous.

Any defensive D-man is not going to post statistically good numbers...RM's primary job is to keep the puck out of the net, and occasionally help teammates put the puck in the net. Your post equates "good play statistically" with finding "any quantifiable evidence of his offensive prowess." They aren't the same, and you know that. There are great D-men whose primary role is to keep the puck out of the net, not post offensive stats. I am not suggesting RM is a great D-man, yet, but he is not the scum of the earth that you make him out to be in every third post.

The few advanced possession metrics show that while RM is not a huge Corsi or Fenwick stuffer (CF 48.3% for career, FF 48.8%), those numbers are weighted by who he played with and his role. And those numbers are not bad, actually good for a stay-at-home D-man. And for this season, CF is 49.2%, FF is 51.2%.

His ES D-zone starts are 51.3% for his career, 53.1% for this season. So while not a huge difference, more of his starts are in the D-zone, which will affect CF% and FF%.

His EXPECTED +/- is a -1.8 for his career, a -1.5 for this season. Last season his expected +/- was -3.9.
His ACTUAL +/- is a 0 for his career. a +2 for this season. Last season his actual +/- was +3.

So his presence on the ice was worth a positive 6.9 goals last year based on that stat, and roughly 3.5 goals so far this season.

Some measurement of a defensively minded D-man would would be on-ice GF/GA.
For this season, RM's on-ice GF/60 is 1.9. GA/60 is 1.7

Some comparisons, many of whom are much more offensively-geared D-men for ON ICE GF/60 and GA/60

Subban ON GF/60 3.0 GA/60 2.2
Weber GF/60 2.1 GA/60 3.4
Seth GF/60 2.5 GA/60 2.3
Zach GF/60 2.7 GA/60 2.4
Doughty GF/60 3.3 GA/60 2.5
Burns GF/60 2.3 GA/60 3.2

JJ GF/60 2.2 GA/60 2.8
Savard GF/60 2.8 GA/60 2.8
Kukan GF/60 4.6 GA/60 3.1 (10 game sample but wow if you are into stats - 14th in league, including forwards).
Nutti GF/60 2.2 GA/1.7


You won't find Murray in the stats for goals, assists, points. That's not his game. Roughly 95% of the stats kept, advanced or otherwise, are geared to offense. That isn't Ryan Murray, was never supposed to be. He doesn't play on the PP - and probably shouldn't, not with Seth and Z on this team. Admittedly his 1.9 GF/60 puts him tied for #601 in the NHL. On the other hand is 1.9 GA/60 puts him tied for #101 in the NHL, and the top 41 in that stat are all at 0.0 and all have played 7 games or less. In fact 57 of the top 100 in that stat have played less than 10 games. So among players who are not statistical anomalies due to low number of games, RM is close to the top 40 statistically with regard to the puck not going in the net when he's on the ice.

I'm not suggesting he's top 40. It would be great if 1.9 GF/60 were 2.5 and the GA/60 stayed as is. But he is a solid defensive D-man, and the few stats that might measure that, albeit imprecisely, support that he is very good at keeping the puck out of the net.

When RM is on the ice, the CBJ are a plus .2 per 60 minutes. Same as Seth. Not as good as Doughty. And you may try to allocate the credit for that to goal tending - but then other "better" CBJ defensemen should have better GA/60 than RM's 1.7. They don't - Nutti is the same and he's the only one close. The gap is .6/.7, all the way up to 1.1.

All of the above compiled from the NHL Hockey Reference site: NHL Advanced Stats / Analytics | Hockey-Reference.com

None of the above makes RM better than Seth or Z... but the above is some statistical that supports RM as a solid D-man in the NHL. I get that may not be what you want, or what some expect a 2nd OA pick to be. But at $2.825M, he's a steal. He won't be commanding a huge increase. And he will keep the puck out of the net more regularly than most. We aren't goal-starved on the backend - we are goal-starved on the front end.

No one has argued that Ryan Murray is or has performed as an all-star. He may never get to that level, probably won't.
But the constant kvetching about a player who has admittedly been oft-injured, for not playing enough games or not having offensive-weighted statistics, has become downright sickening and makes me stay off of here at times. But I enjoy reading and occasionally posting here. So I am entitled to voice my objection just as much as you are entitled to voice your opinion. Fair honest critique of a player, all good. But every freaking post in this and GDT and any other unrelated thread ends up being about RM, to the point of nausea and to the point that many of the good opinions you have get lost because they are dismissed before even read. And the fact that there aren't many statistics to show RM as a good d-man - yeah, what else is new. Stats generally are about scoring goals - and there are some players whose role is not to stuff the score sheet but to keep the other team from doing that.

I know, everyone is entitled to post their opinion - So am I. It's just tiring to keep reading this stuff on a site I'd like to enjoy.

Here's what I posted back on New Year's Eve, which covers similar ground but compares against a handful of others as well. Numbers are most likely out of date for this year.

A major problem with Corsi as a raw shots-for-shots-against is that it's heavily influenced by a player's usage. First and second line players, and first pairing defensemen, are generally always going to have positive Corsi because of the fact that they're being used to generate offense. Third and fourth line players, plus second and third pairing defensemen, will generally have negative Corsi because they're being used in a defensive role in which any offensive counterpunch is simply secondary. Individual shutdown players may also fall into the consistent negative range despite who they're actually lining up with as well.

Marc Methot, for example, played five years in Ottawa and was mostly paired with Erik Karlsson. He had a negative Corsi number in four of those five years, and the last two combined that with a CF% of less than 48%. Remember Jan Hejda? In four years with Columbus, his CF% and CFrel were 50.2% and -2.9, 47.4% and -8.1, 43% and -7.6, and 50.4% and -1.7. The second year, with the -8.1, was the 2008-09 playoff year when he and Mike Commodore (46.6% and -9.9) formed the top shutdown pairing that acted like a suffocating blanket on opposing forwards. That same year, Christian Backman had a 57.1% CF and +6.2. Somehow I don't remember anyone clamoring for more Backman and less Commodore/Hejda, despite what the Corsi numbers say.

We can look ahead to 2010-11, when almost everyone on the team had terrific Corsi numbers despite a record under .500 under Scott Arniel. Why? Because his idea of offensive output was simply throwing shots on net from anywhere, while defensive coverage suffered greatly. Columbus took more shots than the league average but was 25th in goals scored, and allowed fewer shots than league average but was 26th in goals against. Meanwhile, there's all sorts of great Corsi numbers all over the roster.

This isn't limited to Columbus. Any type of primarily shutdown defenseman, no matter how good he is in that role, will have negative Corsi. Any type of superb defensive forward, no matter how dominant, will have negative Corsi. Sammy Pahlsson, who could have won a Conn Smythe for his defensive play with Anaheim during their 2007 Cup, had Corsi numbers with the Ducks of 46.8% and -12.2, then 43.0% and -14.2. Robyn Regehr, for whom there are eight years of Corsi data, didn't come close to a positive CFrel in any year. Ditto Rob Scuderi, Same with Willie Mitchell. Same with Barret Jackman. Same with Niklas Hjalmarsson. Same with Chris Phillips.

What's different with those defensemen is that they were ordinarily paired with someone who was actually driving offense, but their CF% still weren't close to what you've listed as "good". Regehr was paired with Drew Doughty and Slava Voynov, and previously with Jordan Leopold and Andrej Sekera. Before that, it was Jay Bouwmeester and Dion Phaneuf. Willie Mitchell was paired in Florida with Dmitri Kulikov and Erik Gudbranson, which is further reflected in his below-50 CF%. Before that, it was Doughty and Voynov with the Kings. Barret Jackman was paired with Seth Jones and Ryan Ellis, and before that with Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk, and a shutdown pairing with Roman Polak. This can keep going.

That's how Murray has been used, not as the Erik Karlsson type who's driving offense, but as the Methot/Phillips type who's covering his own zone while the other guy roams. When Wisniewski tied a career high here with 51 points and had a 53.8 CF% and +4.1, Murray had a 51.3% and +1.8. Notice what happened when he was paired with someone who actually generated offense at a high level, and notice also that the stats can "see" that he was still the guy out there in late-game situations with a narrow lead being counted on to protect it. Notice that he had a 45.7% and -6.9 last year, largely from late-game situations and from being paired with a rookie defenseman. Murray's primary partner was Nutivaara, who had 61% of his starts in the offensive zone. Murray, his primary partner, had 47.5%. That's from Murray being cycled up and down based on situation to protect leads.

Notice this year that, as Nutivaara has improved, Murray's CF% has gone to 52.6% (compared to 45.7%) and a -0.1 (from -6.9). And notice too that when Murray is on the ice, the goalies have a .952 save percentage, which is the best on the team overall and not just among defensemen. And notice that the last two years, the team is markedly worse without him in the lineup, which does not apply to any of the other players. Not Werenski, not Jones, not Savard, not Johnson, not anyone.

 

[hardkorejackets]

[QUOTE="Mayor Bee, post: 142688031, member: 78653"

2) What you said, about the draft. I don't think a lot of people recall that every single top prospect in that draft was injured for an extended period during his draft year: Yakupov had a concussion, Galchenyuk played 2 games because of an ACL tear, Rielly played 18 games all year, Trouba played 22, Koekkoek played 26, Reinhart missed 15 or 20 games. Among players who didn't miss extended time, there were Dumba (who would have been a huge reach at #2), Lindholm (who was a huge reach at 6), and Pouliot (who was an enormous reach at 8). And then there was Filip Forsberg, who obviously turned out fine, but there was also the report that Howson liked him at #1 or #2 midway through the season for which he was universally condemned here and elsewhere.

Then there was the issue of the rumored trade offer from the Islanders, of every pick they had to move up to #2, which I looked at some months ago and determined that there was nothing that was taken in the vicinity of any of their picks that ended up being NHL players. In other words, a pointless trade.

[/QUOTE]

Only Adam Pelech is an NHL player from all of the Islander's draft picks that year.

 

[Mayor Bee]

Only Adam Pelech is an NHL player from all of the Islander's draft picks that year.

Here's my original post:

Let's say that Columbus takes the deal, falls back to #4 and gains all the NYI picks. Who knows who goes at 4; Griffin Reinhart was regarded as the most safe pick at that spot, and all of Rielly, Dumba, and Trouba had missed extensive time with injuries that year. Lindholm was regarded as a huge reach at 6 as it was, and so was Derrick Pouliot at 8. The best guy on the board would either be Reinhart or Mikhail Grigorenko, who only fell to 12 because of concerns over maturity.

The Islanders had pick 34 and took Ville Pokka. Not one of the next nine picks after Pokka amount to anything.

The Islanders had pick 65 and took Adam Pelech. Not bad, but not exactly Norris caliber. None of the next nine picks has done much with the exception of the still-developing Esa Lindell. I would say Jimmy Vesey, but we all know how that turned out anyway.

Pick 103 was Loic Leduc, and none of the next nine picks amount to anything with the possible exception of Andreas Athanasiou.

Pick 125 was Doyle Somerby, who's currently in the CBJ system anyway. Of the next nine picks, only Connor Hellebuyck has amounted to anything. And with having taken Dansk and Korpisalo already, there's no way Columbus would have taken him.

Pick 155 was Jesse Graham. Of the next nine picks, only Connor Brown and Jake Dotchin have done anything in the NHL. Brown was also -72 in his draft year.

Pick 185 was Jake Bischoff. No one between this spot and the last pick of the draft (211) has done much in the NHL.

Columbus didn't exactly miss the boat here. It's certainly possible that their scouts would have unearthed a couple of the various gems from the later rounds: Gostisbehere and Parayko in the 3rd or Slavin in the 4th. Or maybe they don't and the shift in draft strategy means that they also miss out on Anderson or Korpisalo, producing a significantly worse result.