Ryan Munce-Montoya

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by trahans99, Jan 2, 2005.

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  1. trahans99

    trahans99 Registered User

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    I saw Ryan Munce play yesterday in London and he looked absolutely awful. London scored 4 goals on him and 2 he was flopping all over the ice like a seal and the other scored by Dylan Hunter was a slapshot from the point with no traffic in front. The only good goal he gave up was a penalty shot by David Bolland, and what a move by Bolland! He looks almost as shaky as Montoya has in a few of the US games. :joker:

    So my question is, was this just a fluke bad game or is he really having a bad year. I know he plays on a very young and inexperienced team in Sarnia and they have a terrible record, but I thought he was one of the best goalies in the league (Shantz).
    I know he was drafted by LA, what do you think his futures holds in store for him (NHL one day, career AHLer).

    All comments are appreciated
     
  2. Scottkmlps

    Scottkmlps Registered User

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    Well considering he's got a .915SV% and he's seeing 30+ shots a game, I would have to say that's a good season. Yes the GAA of 2.71 isn't great, and the win-loss record is bad, but looking at his SV% tells you more of how he has played.
     
  3. FearTheFlyers

    FearTheFlyers Registered User

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    Word out of Sarnia is they are looking to move him becasue he has had a bad year.
     
  4. suddenimpact

    suddenimpact Registered User

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    Not bad stats considering he's playing on the 2nd worst team in the OHL.
    How bad can he be? He just won the Canada Post 3-star award for the Western Division based on the first 23 games of the season?
    Regarding his play in London, he took 1st star honors the night before against the Knights in a 1-2 OT loss. Rumor has it Munce is being scouted by London and a couple of Eastern Conference contenders.
     
  5. bruins4777*

    bruins4777* Guest

    Its only one game, you can't judge a kid by one game, he might be tired or something?
     
  6. trahans99

    trahans99 Registered User

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    I know that, thats why i'm asking with this post. I haven't seen him this year but he looked terrible in London.
     
  7. David A. Rainer

    David A. Rainer Registered User

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    Don't forget his 4 goals on 11 shots in 13 minutes before being pulled beauty against Ottawa. Or his 4 goals on 16 shots before being pulled against London as well.

    I think the kid is still a little inconsistent. He will face between 30-50 shots on a night. When he and his defense are clicking, he'll give up 1 or 2 goals. When he is clicking but his defense isn't, he'll give up 3 or 4 goals. When neither is clicking, he'll give up 4 goals in the 1st period and get pulled.

    He hasn't improved much over last season, which is a concern. He is a middle of the pack goalie in a league that does not have a tradition of developing goaltenders. Many Kings fans came away from the 2004 Prospect Camp and 2004 Pacific Division Rookie Tourny rather disappointed in Munce.

    He is athletic and skilled enough to maybe develop into a solid NHL starter (kind of like a Cloutier). But at this point he is not developing at the rate expected of him and he can end up no better than a veteran AHL goalie.
     
  8. suddenimpact

    suddenimpact Registered User

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    Remember that Munce got injured during last summers camp/rookie tourney. He didn't play intersquad and only got 1/2 game in the tourney where they were playing their older goalies.
    Since the kid is still amongst the top 10 goalies in the league on one of the weakest teams, I wouldn't be so quick to critize a couple of games. The league has 40+ goalies so I wouldn't actually say he is middle of the pack. He didn't win the Divisional 3-star award because of 2 bad games!!!
    Last I checked, his stats this year are almost identical to his rookie year when he was on a much stronger team. Sounds like he's developing to me.
     
  9. David A. Rainer

    David A. Rainer Registered User

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    His injury didn't occur until towards the end of the camp. To that point, he had good days and bad days in the camp. From what I understand, he was fine by the Rookie Tourny (and I don't think they would have played him had they thought there was a problem). He played in only 1/2 of a game (because the Kings brought 5 goaltenders to the tourny) and gave up 2 goals on 2 very easy shots (of which he did not face many in total, 10 if my recollection is correct) that he should have stopped.

    It's not just 2 bad games. It's 2 very average (not bad, just average) years.

    Well, let's take a look at that. There are 20 teams, so roughly 20 starting goalies. Of those goalies playing in 20 or more games, he's 8th in GAA and 9th in SV%. That's about as middle of the pack as you will get. His numbers are eerily similar to his freshman year numbers and no one denies he's playing on a bad team. But in a league that produces a legitimate solid NHL starting goaltender only once every couple of years, he needs to be better than just middle of the pack.

    However, strange things can happen. He could be like Andrew Raycroft - mediocre numbers while playing in the OHL, then gets his chance in the AHL and really takes off. But for every Andrew Raycroft, there are dozens of joe-schmoes that never do anything.

    Let's take a closer look at the tendencies that Munce will be facing:

    In the draft years 1979 (beginning of the modern draft) through 1995 (a cut-off point as later drafts are too soon to tell), there have been 82 goalies drafted out of the OHL.

    Those playing 0 NHL games: 46.3%
    Those playing 1-200 NHL games: 32.9%
    Those playing 201-400 NHL games: 12.2%
    Those playing in 401+ NHL games: 8.5%

    So, right off the back, nearly 1 out of every 2 drafted OHL goaltenders never even reach the NHL, and nearly 80% of drafted OHL goalies are journeymen back-ups or less (200 or less NHL games). That does not bode well for Munce. Those 20% that have done more in the NHL, the vast majority of them were top 3 goalies in the OHL for which Munce is not.

    And before someone states that these numbers are similar for other leagues, they're not. The OHL and the NCAA have the worst records for developing NHL goalies. The WHL (surprisingly) has the best.

    Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to bury the kid. I wish only the best for him I think he's a fair prospect and have high hopes for him. He's a fairly good OHL goalie, but he has a long way to go before he can start thinking about the NHL.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2005
  10. bruins4777*

    bruins4777* Guest

    Nice analysis "deathfromabove" the WHL stat is VERY suprising, personally i always thought the Q and ohl were the best goaltending developers...guess not.

    Another thing, social distortion is great.
     
  11. David A. Rainer

    David A. Rainer Registered User

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    I was totally surprised about it too. The Q is famous for producing those top french-canadian goaltenders, but it was the WHL that beat them out in the two categories I looked at: % that make it to the NHL and average games played in the NHL. The OHL and NCAA are near the bottom. Czech, WHL and Sweden are near the top and the Q somewhere in between.

    But no matter what numbers you look at, everyone can agree that Social D kicks ass! ;)
     
  12. bruins4777*

    bruins4777* Guest

    The NCAA is no suprise to me, because well...i've never liked college compared to the major juniors, but OHL is suprising, i always though highly of them...meh. I'm guessing that the Q makes the top tier ones, but probably less or something....meh whatever, like you said we can all agree social D kicks ass.
     
  13. Ziggy Stardust

    Ziggy Stardust Master Debater

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    I'd just like to point out that some (if not, most) of the teams/leagues aren't fortunate enough to have the luxury of affording a goaltending coach/consultant.
     
  14. KingPurpleDinosaur

    KingPurpleDinosaur Bandwagon Kings Fan

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    if munce can be a solid AHL starter, he'd be surprising me. sad how it's the kings fans who are downing munce. this kid's fundamentals jsut aren't there. oh well, hope he turns out better for us.
     
  15. Ziggy Stardust

    Ziggy Stardust Master Debater

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    What is even sadder is seeing people who have only seen Munce in a practice commenting as if they've seen him play a countless amount of games. :shakehead
     
  16. bruins4777*

    bruins4777* Guest

    Why are you suprised? Its the way people deal with prospects.
     
  17. Ziggy Stardust

    Ziggy Stardust Master Debater

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    To follow up with the stat junkies... and those who like to prematurely scream "bust"... here are some facts.

    The Sarnia Sting are the 3rd worst team in the OHL (only two clubs have less points than the Sting, Saginaw and Oshawa). Yet they are tied for the 8th best GA in the league. Yet Sarnia has the 3rd worst offense in the league behind the two worst OHL clubs. You can't expect your goalie to win many games when your club can't put the puck in the net. That is unless you expect your netminder to contribute to the offense... then that is a different story.

    Munce still has a VERY respectable Sv% of .915, and he can be attributed as one of the main reasons why Sarnia is tied with the 8th best GA in the league, despite their poor record.

    Even with Munce's inconsistent performances, he has been consistent in his overall performance throughout the past couple seasons, as evidenced by his Sv% at the end of the season always average over .910. Only three goalies in the OHL have faced more shots than Munce. Last season, Munce faced the 2nd most amount of shots.

    I wouldn't worry too much about his GAA. Hell, Patrick Roy had an atrocious GAA in his junior career (and no, I'm not comparing Munce or any other young netminder to Patrick, but I don't think you can use any better example of how fans on message boards jump the gun at calling a young prospect a bust). This goes for all goalie prospects.
     
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