suddenimpact said:
Remember that Munce got injured during last summers camp/rookie tourney. He didn't play intersquad and only got 1/2 game in the tourney where they were playing their older goalies.
His injury didn't occur until towards the end of the camp. To that point, he had good days and bad days in the camp. From what I understand, he was fine by the Rookie Tourny (and I don't think they would have played him had they thought there was a problem). He played in only 1/2 of a game (because the Kings brought 5 goaltenders to the tourny) and gave up 2 goals on 2 very easy shots (of which he did not face many in total, 10 if my recollection is correct) that he should have stopped.
Since the kid is still amongst the top 10 goalies in the league on one of the weakest teams, I wouldn't be so quick to critize a couple of games. The league has 40+ goalies so I wouldn't actually say he is middle of the pack. He didn't win the Divisional 3-star award because of 2 bad games!!! Last I checked, his stats this year are almost identical to his rookie year when he was on a much stronger team. Sounds like he's developing to me.
It's not just 2 bad games. It's 2 very average (not bad, just average) years.
Well, let's take a look at that. There are 20 teams, so roughly 20 starting goalies. Of those goalies playing in 20 or more games, he's 8th in GAA and 9th in SV%. That's about as middle of the pack as you will get. His numbers are eerily similar to his freshman year numbers and no one denies he's playing on a bad team. But in a league that produces a legitimate solid NHL starting goaltender only once every couple of years, he needs to be better than just middle of the pack.
However, strange things can happen. He could be like Andrew Raycroft - mediocre numbers while playing in the OHL, then gets his chance in the AHL and really takes off. But for every Andrew Raycroft, there are dozens of joe-schmoes that never do anything.
Let's take a closer look at the tendencies that Munce will be facing:
In the draft years 1979 (beginning of the modern draft) through 1995 (a cut-off point as later drafts are too soon to tell), there have been 82 goalies drafted out of the OHL.
Those playing 0 NHL games: 46.3%
Those playing 1-200 NHL games: 32.9%
Those playing 201-400 NHL games: 12.2%
Those playing in 401+ NHL games: 8.5%
So, right off the back, nearly 1 out of every 2 drafted OHL goaltenders never even reach the NHL, and nearly 80% of drafted OHL goalies are journeymen back-ups or less (200 or less NHL games). That does not bode well for Munce. Those 20% that have done more in the NHL, the vast majority of them were top 3 goalies in the OHL for which Munce is not.
And before someone states that these numbers are similar for other leagues, they're not. The OHL and the NCAA have the worst records for developing NHL goalies. The WHL (surprisingly) has the best.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to bury the kid. I wish only the best for him I think he's a fair prospect and have high hopes for him. He's a fairly good OHL goalie, but he has a long way to go before he can start thinking about the NHL.