RW Eeli Tolvanen Milwaukee Admirals, AHL (2017, 30th, NSH) Part II

[paragon]

I have no issue with thinking that Tolvanen will be a good player. It's just that 40 goals is so rare these days. During the last 4 seasons only 10 people have scored more than 40. Only 1 player has done it more than once (Ovechkin). Only 5 players have eclipsed the mark by more than 1 goal. You need a great complementary player to help you break the mark. For Ovechkin it is Bäckström, for Kane it was Panarin, for Matthews it was Nylander, for Nash it was Zuccarello and Brassard, for Laine it is Scheifele, Ehlers and Wheeler, for Crosby it's Malkin and Kessel, for Stamkos it's Kucherov and vice versa.

You have to be truly special and also be put in the right place to succeed to do it. Look where he's going to playing. Nashville's best forward is Forsberg and plays the same position. Kevin Fiala is also great and plays the same position. The chances of Tolvanen playing on the 1st PP unit are extremely slim because of the position he plays in. Even 2nd PP is going to be hard. He is not going to supplant Forsberg or any of their great offensive defensemen in Subban, Ellis and Josi. The only player he can realistically replace on the PP2 is Fiala and that's not easy. The other guys are right handed shots and it would likely screw up their PP if they put a left handed shot in those positions.

Hes' a left wing and going to be behind Forsberg and Fiala so he would most likely slot in the 3rd line in place of Hartnell to play with Bonino. Good luck scoring 40 goals from there with no PP time. All the key forwards in Nashville are also locked in long term contracts, so there are no natural openings. He has to massively outperform them to be put in a position to score 40. He has to be better than Forsberg. I don't see it happening.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Or you play Fiala/Tolvanen on the right and Craig Smith gets bumped down to the 3rd line where he more or less belongs anyway. Problem solved.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Or you play Fiala/Tolvanen on the right and Craig Smith gets bumped down to the 3rd line where he more or less belong anyway. Problem solved.

Tolvanen can easily be played on the right wing. That's where he slides most of the time anyways, no matter where his position in the face-off circle is.

 

[PeterCheater]

I think Tolvanen is on a tier of prospects called ''he will be solid player and can become an elite one (Tarasenko like) but it's generally unlikely because most prospects from this tier didn't develop that far". That's why you can't say he will definitely become that good (40 goals per season), but on the other hand I wouldn't make analogies he definitely won't (he's best 19yo scorer in KHL history I guess, that says a lot considering there are some ~80pts a season prospects from KHL like Panarin, Kuznetsov, Tarasenko in a league right now).

 

[Hockeyisl1fe]

I at last expected it to be as difficult for Pulju as it has been for him so far. Tolvanen is a much more talented player than Pulju in fact. I have seen that already a very long time. I believe that if Pulju will get somehow still a real grip on playing in the NHL he might at best be a 50-60 point player. But I wouldn’t expect much more than that. I had these kind of estimations on his potential already before I had seen him play in the NHL. Tolvanen has a so much better shot and so much better hockey IQ, that he should be always the clearly better player between those two.

I had exact same thoughts about Pulju before he went to the NHL. Even in the U20s Laine and Aho showed so much more raw skill than him, even though he put up more points. Pulju in that line was what Nemetsnikov was for Kucherov and Stamkos earlier in the season imo. I was really shaking my head when people were predicting him to be what Kurri was to Gretzky. I have posted this before, but McKeen's was the one scouting site that got it spot on with Pulju imo, straight quote from their pre draft ranking analysis:
"Jesse Puljujarvi drops to fourth in the rankings in part because since the U-20's he has failed to show the elite offensive skills one looks for in a top three prospect playing on the wing.
"He may be a solid two-way winger at the NHL level who never scores 30 goals," suggested one scout. "He is a decent playmaker, and you have to love his competitiveness, size and skating ability, but will he ever be among the scoring leaders? I'm not sure he has that potential. I'm not seeing elite offensive or finishing skills.". The concerns how Tolvanen's game will translate aren't comparable with Pulju's struggles. I can't believe how much people are doubting him, I put a lot on weight of what Jalonen has said about him being a truly elite prospect. Also that possibly the best GM in the league wants him to play in the top 6 role for his team already should say something... a team that is a serious cup contender. Not saying it's guarenteed he can score 40 some day, but to say it's totally impossible is just silly.

 

[42]

Not saying it's guarenteed he can score 40 some day, but to say it's totally impossible is just silly.

You haven't read the posts carefully. No one said it's impossible for him to score 40 goals. What some posters said was that he is pretty much guaranteed to score 40 to which the reply by many of us was that it is very very unlikely.

 

[Hockeyisl1fe]

You haven't read the posts carefully. No one said it's impossible for him to score 40 goals. What some posters said was that he is pretty much guaranteed to score 40 to which the reply by many of us was that it is very very unlikely.

One poster literally said that he has 0% chance of scoring 40 goals.

 

[42]

I think Tolvanen is on a tier of prospects called ''he will be solid player and can become an elite one (Tarasenko like) but it's generally unlikely because most prospects from this tier didn't develop that far". That's why you can't say he will definitely become that good (40 goals per season), but on the other hand I wouldn't make analogies he definitely won't (he's best 19yo scorer in KHL history I guess, that says a lot considering there are some ~80pts a season prospects from KHL like Panarin, Kuznetsov, Tarasenko in a league right now).

That's true but those guys usage was very different at age 19. They weren't given nearly as much ice-time or PP opportunities and top line minutes to score as much so the comparison with Tolvanen's production isn't exactly apples to apples.

 

[42]

One poster literally said that he has 0% chance of scoring 40 goals.

Oh, I must have missed that one. I know I didn't say impossible nor did the several other posts I read that were of similar persuasion. That poster is the exception, though. Still, the chance of him scoring 40 goals isn't much greater than 0

 

[42]

What Tolvanen is, is a great prospect, top 5 prospect, and has a bright NHL future. But some fans are getting much too excited early and put forth grand claims of guarantees about his future NHL production. Let's just enjoy his journey and see how good he can become without making guarantees about his production because no one can know with certainty what he'll become.

 

[Hockeyisl1fe]

Oh, I must have missed that one. I know I didn't say impossible nor did the several other posts I read that were of similar persuasion. That poster is the exception, though. Still, the chance of him scoring 40 goals isn't much greater than 0

I'm not going to debate whether he has 1%, 50% or 90% of doing that, it would just go in circles. I'm just wondering why so many people are doubting him? For example Alex Debrincat who wasn't viewed even close as good of a prospect as Tolvanen will be quite close to score 30 this season. He didn't even make it to the US wjc squad in his +1 draft season... I thought he was too small to play in the NHL and not good enough of a skater. Lesson to be learned: never underestimate elite shooters.

 

[42]

I'm not going to debate whether he has 1%, 50% or 90% of doing that, it would just go in circles. I'm just wondering why so many people are doubting him? For example Alex Debrincat who wasn't viewed even close as good of a prospect as Tolvanen will be quite close to score 30 this season. He didn't even make it to the US wjc squad in his +1 draft season... I thought he was too small to play in the NHL and not good enough of a skater. Lesson to be learned: never underestimate elite shooters.

So you think I'm underestimating him by calling him a top 5 prospect with a bright future in the NHL? Just because I really doubt he'll score 40 goals? OK then.

Incidentally, Debrincat has 22 goals right now. He might not score another goal this season. You're making some unwarranted assumptions in your arguments.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

He's a calder favorite and probably playing in the best team in the NHL.

 

[42]

He's a calder favorite and probably playing in the best team in the NHL.

He's one of Calder favorites, the other being Pettersson, Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, etc. And the fact that he plays for such a deep team like Nashville means that he's less likely to get the playing time and opportunities to produce in his rookie year than some of the other Calder candidates.

 

[ThirdManIn]

I have no issue with thinking that Tolvanen will be a good player. It's just that 40 goals is so rare these days. During the last 4 seasons only 10 people have scored more than 40. Only 1 player has done it more than once (Ovechkin). Only 5 players have eclipsed the mark by more than 1 goal. You need a great complementary player to help you break the mark. For Ovechkin it is Bäckström, for Kane it was Panarin, for Matthews it was Nylander, for Nash it was Zuccarello and Brassard, for Laine it is Scheifele, Ehlers and Wheeler, for Crosby it's Malkin and Kessel, for Stamkos it's Kucherov and vice versa.

You have to be truly special and also be put in the right place to succeed to do it. Look where he's going to playing. Nashville's best forward is Forsberg and plays the same position. Kevin Fiala is also great and plays the same position. The chances of Tolvanen playing on the 1st PP unit are extremely slim because of the position he plays in. Even 2nd PP is going to be hard. He is not going to supplant Forsberg or any of their great offensive defensemen in Subban, Ellis and Josi. The only player he can realistically replace on the PP2 is Fiala and that's not easy. The other guys are right handed shots and it would likely screw up their PP if they put a left handed shot in those positions.

Hes' a left wing and going to be behind Forsberg and Fiala so he would most likely slot in the 3rd line in place of Hartnell to play with Bonino. Good luck scoring 40 goals from there with no PP time. All the key forwards in Nashville are also locked in long term contracts, so there are no natural openings. He has to massively outperform them to be put in a position to score 40. He has to be better than Forsberg. I don't see it happening.

Forsberg plays the point on the PP, so Tolvanen wouldn't need to replace Filip. They could be on the same PP unit.

 

[Hockeyisl1fe]

So you think I'm underestimating him by calling him a top 5 prospect with a bright future in the NHL? Just because I really doubt he'll score 40 goals? OK then.

Incidentally, Debrincat has 22 goals right now. He might not score another goal this season. You're making some unwarranted assumptions in your arguments.

I didn't say anything about you underestimating him, that was a note to myself. I used Debrincat purely as example of how much it helps to have a great shot. He is undersized and not that good of a skater in contrast to that, but he has still scored a respectable amount of goals in his rookie season.

 

[Narow]

I remember hearing that tolvanen is the finnish tarasenko almost 2 years ago already. Lets hope so. Man finnish national team will be beast either way.

Hope nhl goes olympics next time.

Laine-barkov-aho
Tolvanen-kotkaniemi-aho
Rantanen-???-granlund
Simontaival-????-haula
Puljärvi/lehkonen/vesalainen/ leevi Aaltonen/armia/filpulla/kapanen etc etc

Heiskanen-juolevi
Ristolainen-honka (either one of them)
Any of the 2016 first draft picks

Rask/saaros/???


Only center position that is very questionable at the momemt outaide barkov, any upcoming promising centers besides kotkaniemi??

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Only center position that is very questionable at the momemt outaide barkov, any upcoming promising centers besides kotkaniemi??

Kotkaniemi hasn't even played C in Liiga...the only C prospect right now is Kupari and maybe Borgström (Who will NOT get to play C in Florida)

 

[PeterCheater]

I think @42 made some valuable points there.

About this comparison to production level of Tarasenko and Kuznetsov, I think that first of all to these analogies we have to take some distance and don't overreact. I'm not saying Tolvanen is a better prospect than these two, in fact I would say that's something hard to accomplish. But I'd rather say that 44 pts in 55 matches in KHL this season is top5-calliber of prospect production, but in course of a season because of his hot start, then disappointing (in general) U-20 champs and cold streak in KHL, some posters forgot that in general this is still sensational season of Tolvanen.

He's like top3 drafted prospect not playing in a league (and it's not like Mittelstadt or Petterson are far better) so I can understand that expectations are really high. Furthermore, I would say on my own he has potential to have multiple ppg seasons, especially in talented team.

But that doesn't change a fact that to be 40+40 type of player there's needed some serious development only few players can achieve. And I like very much Tolvanen's potential, and I truly believe he can get to that level, but to say he will is setting a bar extremely high. In this context, I'm a "doubter", but in fact I just don't want us to be disappointed when Tolvanen become "only" good 60-70pts type of winger, because there were times when fans of Finnish hockey would by thrilled to have that good teenager as their prospect.

 

[Narow]

Kotkaniemi hasn't even played C in Liiga...the only C prospect right now is Kupari and maybe Borgström (Who will NOT get to play C in Florida)

Oh oh even worse then. Would be nice with a couple elite centers the coming drafts.

Nothing on the horizon???

I guess granlund could do fine at center if he has say laine and aho on his wings and give tolvanen/vesalainen to barkov ^^ should be a great top 6 in worst case

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Oh oh even worse then. Would be nice with a couple elite centers the coming drafts.

Nothing on the horizon???

I guess granlund could do fine at center if he has say laine and aho on his wings and give tolvanen/vesalainen to barkov ^^ should be a great top 6 in worst case

Granlund will play C for sure. And Haula. And if you think Teräväinen doesn't make the Olympic roster then think again.

Pretty brave listing a 16 year old prospect.

 

[Narow]

Granlund will play C for sure. And Haula. And if you think Teräväinen doesn't make the Olympic roster then think again.

Ah completely forgot about him, you know what, that felt good! This is the first time in a long time where i have had the luxury to forget legit good players on team finland.

I was about to write komarov like 5 times since he has always seemed to be on the team

 

[Hockeyisl1fe]

I remember hearing that tolvanen is the finnish tarasenko almost 2 years ago already. Lets hope so. Man finnish national team will be beast either way.

Hope nhl goes olympics next time.

Laine-barkov-aho
Tolvanen-kotkaniemi-aho
Rantanen-???-granlund
Simontaival-????-haula
Puljärvi/lehkonen/vesalainen/ leevi Aaltonen/armia/filpulla/kapanen etc etc

Heiskanen-juolevi
Ristolainen-honka (either one of them)
Any of the 2016 first draft picks

Rask/saaros/???


Only center position that is very questionable at the momemt outaide barkov, any upcoming promising centers besides kotkaniemi??

Hilarious how underrated Lindell is... he is a legit top pairing dman, no spot in the roster for scrubs like him. Aho will most likely play as a center, Haula too. Also you forgot Kaapo Kakko.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Hilarious how underrated Lindell is... he is a legit top pairing dman, no spot in the roster for scrubs like him. Aho will most likely play as a center, Haula too. Also you forgot Kaapo Kakko.

What's the projection for him? Is this guy legit? Looking like top 5 pick?

 

[Hockeyisl1fe]

What's the projection for him? Is this guy legit? Looking like top 5 pick?

It's quite early, but as of now yes.