Rumor: Rumours & Proposals Thread | Kypreos: OTT & EDM have had Hoffman for Picks/Prospects talks

[bucks_oil]

The contract will only look good if he lives up to last years numbers. If not it'll be a risky contract that does not look good. I love Draisaitl. My favorite player on the team. He is overpaid.

If he's a 60 point guy he's overpaid now and for a couple years... but you find me a prime two-way C, scoring 60 points every year who's making less than 8-9% of the cap on a long term contract. [edit who signed the contract as an established 60 point guy... we're trying to establish the value of a 60 point guy... in case that wasn't clear]

Even if he stumbles it will still be a good contract about mid-way through it's life and exceptional in years 6-8.

 

[CycloneSweep]

If he's a 60 point guy he's overpaid now and for a couple years... but you find me a prime two-way C, scoring 60 points every year who's making less than 8-9% of the cap on a long term contract.

Even if he stumbles it will still be a good contract about mid-way through it's life and exceptional in years 6-8.

Uhhh Mark Scheifele? Sean Monahan?

Edit: Seguin when he was signed.

You don't sign a guy who has hit over 60 points ONCE in his career for 8.5 mill long term. It's an overpay unless he can hit 70+ points again. He is on pace for 63 points this year.

It was a very risky contract. It could work out great for us, or it's going to hurt the team long term.

 

[belair]

Can we start up a viral pregame Letestu to CBJ rumour and maybe one of the GMs will catch wind of it? Their PP is last in the league and he's an old fan favorite. It basically writes itself.

We need a shake up.

 

[McOilers97]

If he's a 60 point guy he's overpaid now and for a couple years... but you find me a prime two-way C, scoring 60 points every year who's making less than 8-9% of the cap on a long term contract.

Even if he stumbles it will still be a good contract about mid-way through it's life and exceptional in years 6-8.

Draisaitl a two-way C? Guy regularly blows the zone early and makes blind passes in the offensive zone. He's talented, no doubt, but not a two-way C at all yet.

 

[MettleMcOiler]

If Draisaitl is on a 63 point pace...now...while be is struggling. Imagine when he gets over the hump. Then imagine when he starts to go on a tear.
This year, yes, he is overpaid for the production he is bringing. But the oilers paid for results he will bring for years to come.
I will blatantly say that those who want to trade Draisaitl are fools.
But overall, he is not overpaid I think we got a steal for him.
This is the type of player you build around Mcdavid.
I am vehemently against anyone who thinks otherwise.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Uhhh Mark Scheifele? Sean Monahan?

Edit: Seguin when he was signed.

You don't sign a guy who has hit over 60 points ONCE in his career for 8.5 mill long term. It's an overpay unless he can hit 70+ points again. He is on pace for 63 points this year.

It was a very risky contract. It could work out great for us, or it's going to hurt the team long term.

Technically on pace for 66 points pro-rated to 82 games since he missed some games off that concussion, I think he'll find his way to getting just a tad north of 70 points. I'll concede Chia is a bit of an idiot giving him that contract when Drai simply didn't have the leverage to get a contract like that, but I do think he will earn it in the long run, but when you are in position to get a player on a value contract you have to do so.

If anyone is concerned about his present production please note he only has one PP point, it is unfathomable that someone of his skill set wouldn't be more productive on the PP moving forward.

 

[McShogun99]

If Draisaitl is on a 63 point pace...now...while be is struggling. Imagine when he gets over the hump. Then imagine when he starts to go on a tear.
This year, yes, he is overpaid for the production he is bringing. But the oilers paid for results he will bring for years to come.
I will blatantly say that those who want to trade Draisaitl are fools.
But overall, he is not overpaid I think we got a steal for him.
This is the type of player you build around Mcdavid.
I am vehemently against anyone who thinks otherwise.

63 point pace with only 1 PP point. No one is saying that Draisaitl isn’t a good player but he is overpayed coming out of an RLC. If anything, people should be complaining about Eichels contract. He hasn’t accomplished what Draisaitl has and he’s making 10.5 just because of his value to Buffalo.

 

[belair]

What does the value look like on a Letestu, Maroon and 2nd for Jenner and a long-shot prospect for the Jackets? They've got Jenner buried on the fourth line right now and he hasn't produced much despite getting significant minutes. He's up for a new deal this summer, too. If CBJ's looking to do something in the playoffs, maybe a deal like this could work.

 

[A91]

63 point pace with only 1 PP point. No one is saying that Draisaitl isn’t a good player but he is overpayed coming out of an RLC. If anything, people should be complaining about Eichels contract. He hasn’t accomplished what Draisaitl has and he’s making 10.5 just because of his comparison to McDavid

fixed

 

[bucks_oil]

Uhhh Mark Scheifele? Sean Monahan?

Edit: Seguin when he was signed.

You don't sign a guy who has hit over 60 points ONCE in his career for 8.5 mill long term. It's an overpay unless he can hit 70+ points again. He is on pace for 63 points this year.

It was a very risky contract. It could work out great for us, or it's going to hurt the team long term.

Appreciate you stepping into the debate, but ....

The argument is: Taking a risk on a young, one time ~point-per-game center with a long term contract is a risk worth taking. Even if he falters (to regress to an established 60 point center) within a few years you've still covered the bet. Waiting until he's an established point-per-game center (as McJeetz originally suggested... and I refuted with cap-hit percentages) will cause you to pay more.

Scheifele is a point per game C NOW, not when he signed his contract in 2016. At that time he was a one-time 60 point guy, one time 50 point guy. That was worth 6.125 or 8.6% of the cap at that time. It's a great contract, they've won on their bet... but the bet was that Scheifele was a 60 point C. And a 60 point C was worth 8.4%. That's not "less than 8-9% of the cap". You are proving my point.

Monahan also signed in 2016. At the time he was two-time 60 point C. That was worth 6.375 or 8.7%. Again, proving my point. It's also worth noting that he only signed for 6, the number would have been higher had he signed longer.

Seguin signed in 2013. At the time he was a one-time 67 point C and had just completed a strike shortened season where he scored at 55 point pace. We're gonna round it off and say "he was a 60 point C" though some (incl Boston, who played him on Bergeron's wing) would argue. He signed for 5.75 against a 64.3M cap. That equals... again 8.9%.

So 8-9% is what you pay for a 60 point guy. (Draisaitl was a 77 point guy).

What about an established player who, in the past, might have scored at a point a game pace (like Drai) but has regressed into an established 60 point guy (like you are worried we might have with Drai). I had to go back to 2014 to even FIND a guy available to sign. Paul Stastny. Had 4 seasons in a row where he was around 55-60 points. He signed for 7M against a $69M cap. So 10%.

So... back to the argument. We bridge him, and:

A) he scores at a point per game, we're paying 13-14% against a future cap of (at least) $82M (thats the current cap x 3% increases into the 2019 offseason... and that's conservative, the actual historic increase is >4% compounded). 13-14% equals $10.66M to $11.48M

B) he scores at a 60 point pace. We end up paying him Stastny cap money of 10% against the $82M, so $8.2M. Are we any better off? In a downside you save $300K and in an upside you lose 2 to 3M in cap, or lose the player entirely.

B is our downside scenario. A 60 point Draisaitl is "breakeven" against his contract in a as few as 3 seasons from now.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Appreciate you stepping into the debate, but ....

The argument is: Taking a risk on a young, one time ~point-per-game center with a long term contract is a risk worth taking. Even if he falters (to regress to an established 60 point center) within a few years you've still covered the bet. Waiting until he's an established point-per-game center (as McJeetz originally suggested... and I refuted with cap-hit percentages) will cause you to pay more.

Scheifele is a point per game C NOW, not when he signed his contract in 2016. At that time he was a one-time 60 point guy, one time 50 point guy. That was worth 6.125 or 8.6% of the cap at that time. It's a great contract, they've won on their bet... but the bet was that Scheifele was a 60 point C. And a 60 point C was worth 8.4%. That's not "less than 8-9% of the cap". You are proving my point.

Monahan also signed in 2016. At the time he was two-time 60 point C. That was worth 6.375 or 8.7%. Again, proving my point. It's also worth noting that he only signed for 6, the number would have been higher had he signed longer.

Seguin signed in 2013. At the time he was a one-time 67 point C and had just completed a strike shortened season where he scored at 55 point pace. We're gonna round it off and say "he was a 60 point C" though some (incl Boston, who played him on Bergeron's wing) would argue. He signed for 5.75 against a 64.3M cap. That equals... again 8.9%.

So 8-9% is what you pay for a 60 point guy. (Draisaitl was a 77 point guy).

What about an established player who, in the past, might have scored at a point a game pace (like Drai) but has regressed into an established 60 point guy (like you are worried we might have with Drai). I had to go back to 2014 to even FIND a guy available to sign. Paul Stastny. Had 4 seasons in a row where he was around 55-60 points. He signed for 7M against a $69M cap. So 10%.

So... back to the argument. We bridge him, and:

A) he scores at a point per game, we're paying 13-14% against a future cap of (at least) $82M (thats the current cap x 3% increases into the 2019 offseason... and that's conservative, the actual historic increase is >4% compounded). 13-14% equals $10.66M to $11.48M

B) he scores at a 60 point pace. We end up paying him Stastny cap money of 10% against the $82M, so $8.2M. Are we any better off? In a downside you save $300K and in an upside you lose 2 to 3M in cap, or lose the player entirely.

B is our downside scenario. A 60 point Draisaitl is "breakeven" against his contract in a as few as 3 seasons from now.

As if the day they were signed, Drai takes up 11.3% of the cap. You cant compare it to what happens if the cap goes super high next year. You compare it to time of signing. So compared to those guys you are taking about.. Over 2% more of the cap.

9% of the cap for Drai for the year his contract started would be 6.75 mill. 10% would be 7.5 mill. So according to your numbers, he was absolutely overpaid at time of signing. If the cap goes up to 85 within the next 2-3 years then his contract will be comparable to Stastny... When he f***ing signed his contract.

Drai is overpaid. Thats a 100% fact.

To add to this, Draisaitl at center this season

2-2-4 7GP pace for 47 points

So if he is some 60 point center (he has yet to hit 60 points playing center). So we are paying elite center money to a guy who hit that 77 point mark being a winger.

If he is a 55-60 point center....huge issue. If he is a 70-80 point winger? Well Pastrnak is that and he is paid less.

 

[MinimaMoralia]

I think it would be rad to see a mid-level shake-up between the Sens and Oil.
Something around Pageau, Ceci from them, Strome, Jones, Cags/Benning from us. Add in whatever middling picks.

 

[Jet Walters]

Would love to add Pageau. Perfect 3C for the Oilers. I'm just not sure what it would take. Certainly more than what Oilers fans would think.

 

[McShogun99]

fixed

His only comparison to Mcdavid is that he was drafted right after him. If Mcdavid wasn’t part of the draft there is zero doubt he would be the 1st pick but he is more in the range of Tavares, Hall then he is with Mcdavid. I doubt Buffalo fans are complaining about his contract but from an outside perspective he is being over payed.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Would love to add Pageau. Perfect 3C for the Oilers. I'm just not sure what it would take. Certainly more than what Oilers fans would think.

Pageau and Hoffman are dream fits. We'd have to give up a pretty decent piece that can fit in now and some futures.

You think they would be down to take a chance on maroon? They can let him go if he flounders, but he has scored 20 goals. I assume we'd have to add a lot to him if we want to get either of those guys.

 

[Jet Walters]

Pageau and Hoffman are dream fits. We'd have to give up a pretty decent piece that can fit in now and some futures.

You think they would be down to take a chance on maroon? They can let him go if he flounders, but he has scored 20 goals. I assume we'd have to add a lot to him if we want to get either of those guys.

I don't think they'd want Maroon as he's a pending UFA. Up front they are fairly deep and if anything they could use some more speed and skill IMO. I think they'd want a top 4 RHD, a speedy forward, and picks/prospects for a Hoffman/Pageau package. The only thing I can think of that makes sense is something like this........

To EDM: Hoffman, Pageau, OTT 2nd

To CAR: RNH and EDM 3rd

To OTT: Faulk, Caggiula, EDM 1st (lottery protected)

Some mid round picks/B prospects could be added to balance the deal.

 

[t0nedeff]

horrible for the oilers

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

I don't think they'd want Maroon as he's a pending UFA. Up front they are fairly deep and if anything they could use some more speed and skill IMO. I think they'd want a top 4 RHD, a speedy forward, and picks/prospects for a Hoffman/Pageau package. The only thing I can think of that makes sense is something like this........

To EDM: Hoffman, Pageau, OTT 2nd

To CAR: RNH and EDM 3rd

To OTT: Faulk, Caggiula, EDM 1st (lottery protected)

Some mid round picks/B prospects could be added to balance the deal.

Hoffman is a bit more talented offensively then RNH, but isn't close to being as defensively responsible nor is he a center, the edge straight across should lean in RNH's favor slightly then we are giving up Caggiula + a 1st & a 3rd rd pick for Pageau and a 2nd rd pick. That deal is clearly not in our favor, you don't drop 1st rd picks on players of Pageau's calibre. Our 1st rd pick alone given our position in the standings (regardless of lottery protection we've got a tall order just to get out of the bottom 10 in the standings) should put us in the ballpark of Hoffman and then Pageau should be worth roughly Strome plus a small throw in or straight across for our 2nd best d prospect.

 

[Jet Walters]

Hoffman is a bit more talented offensively then RNH, but isn't close to being as defensively responsible nor is he a center, the edge straight across should lean in RNH's favor slightly then we are giving up Caggiula + a 1st & a 3rd rd pick for Pageau and a 2nd rd pick. That deal is clearly not in our favor, you don't drop 1st rd picks on players of Pageau's calibre. Our 1st rd pick alone given our position in the standings (regardless of lottery protection we've got a tall order just to get out of the bottom 10 in the standings) should put us in the ballpark of Hoffman and then Pageau should be worth roughly Strome plus a small throw in or straight across for our 2nd best d prospect.

You underrate Pageau IMO. Guess who has more even strength points since the start of the 2015 season than RNH? Also 54.5% vs 45.5% on the dot and RH shot. He is RNH's equal in all situations but the PP, and the Oilers have plenty of LH options there already. Adding Pageau and Hoffman for RNH and Caggiula while dropping back roughly 20-25 spots in the draft would be a steal. I think a case could be made that the Oilers get better at ES, PP, and PK with that trade.

 

[bucks_oil]

As if the day they were signed, Drai takes up 11.3% of the cap. You cant compare it to what happens if the cap goes super high next year. You compare it to time of signing. So compared to those guys you are taking about.. Over 2% more of the cap.

9% of the cap for Drai for the year his contract started would be 6.75 mill. 10% would be 7.5 mill. So according to your numbers, he was absolutely overpaid at time of signing. If the cap goes up to 85 within the next 2-3 years then his contract will be comparable to Stastny... When he ****ing signed his contract.

Drai is overpaid. Thats a 100% fact.

To add to this, Draisaitl at center this season

2-2-4 7GP pace for 47 points

So if he is some 60 point center (he has yet to hit 60 points playing center). So we are paying elite center money to a guy who hit that 77 point mark being a winger.

If he is a 55-60 point center....huge issue. If he is a 70-80 point winger? Well Pastrnak is that and he is paid less.

I'm not diametrically opposed to what you are saying... but it's not 100% fact, as you wish it to be.

Seguin was not playing C either when he signed his contract. He was signed for so much because that's what people knew he would be. And he hadn't proven his ability to score 77 points. And he got ~9%. And he was 2nd overall to Drai's 3rd. These situations are highly comparable except that Drai had already demonstrated an ability to score at a higher rate. So it stands to reason his cap % would be higher.

Monahan & Scheffele were both 50-60 point guys when they signed. Not 77. It's great that they are now scoring at a higher rate... but that's hindsight. They were paid as 50-60 point guys with reasonable pedigree (which still counts at that stage... let's not kid ourselves).

Pasta is a great counter argument IF and ONLY IF we think Draisaitl is not capable of playing C. If that's your position, I'll have to disagree (I think he can play C and will play C) but accept your position and we wait and see. If Pasta were drafted as a C, played Jr as a C, he'd have been paid more. He'd also be making more if he'd signed for 8 and not 6 years.

You seem upset by the Stastny argument. I'm not sure why. We don't know that Draisaitl is "only" a 60 point C. It's speculation and I currently don't believe it. My argument is that if that's what ends up happening... that by the time we see it happen, the 2nd half of his contract will still be "equal value" for a 60 point C. That's our downside situation... that the first half of the contract is an overpay and the 2nd half is equal value.

Our upside scenario is that 6, 7, or 8 of 8 years are all a bargain. 80 point Cs get >13% of the cap. We might have ours for 11.3%

The Oilers gambled that he is a point per game C. If they are right then a bridge deal was analytically, by the comps, the WRONG way to go. Then they measured their downside which was that he might only be a 60 point C and decided the upside was worth the risk.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I'm not diametrically opposed to what you are saying... but it's not 100% fact, as you wish it to be.

Seguin was not playing C either when he signed his contract. He was signed for so much because that's what people knew he would be. And he hadn't proven his ability to score 77 points. And he got ~9%. And he was 2nd overall to Drai's 3rd. These situations are highly comparable except that Drai had already demonstrated an ability to score at a higher rate. So it stands to reason his cap % would be higher.

Monahan & Scheffele were both 50-60 point guys when they signed. Not 77. It's great that they are now scoring at a higher rate... but that's hindsight. They were paid as 50-60 point guys with reasonable pedigree (which still counts at that stage... let's not kid ourselves).

Pasta is a great counter argument IF and ONLY IF we think Draisaitl is not capable of playing C. If that's your position, I'll have to disagree (I think he can play C and will play C) but accept your position and we wait and see. If Pasta were drafted as a C, played Jr as a C, he'd have been paid more. He'd also be making more if he'd signed for 8 and not 6 years.

You seem upset by the Stastny argument. I'm not sure why. We don't know that Draisaitl is "only" a 60 point C. It's speculation and I currently don't believe it. My argument is that if that's what ends up happening... that by the time we see it happen, the 2nd half of his contract will still be "equal value" for a 60 point C. That's our downside situation... that the first half of the contract is an overpay and the 2nd half is equal value.

Our upside scenario is that 6, 7, or 8 of 8 years are all a bargain. 80 point Cs get >13% of the cap. We might have ours for 11.3%

The Oilers gambled that he is a point per game C. If they are right then a bridge deal was analytically, by the comps, the WRONG way to go. Then they measured their downside which was that he might only be a 60 point C and decided the upside was worth the risk.

Draisaitl isn't an 80 point center though. He got close to 80 points once as McDavids winger. He has to improve alot to be a 80 point center. Thats the arguement.

Also if he is a 60 point center the second half of his contract may still look fine. That said, if you look at all the comparables signed around him. He is overpaid. That just simply how it is. It MAY work out in the future and look like a good contract. But today it is not

 

[frag2]

Can we start up a viral pregame Letestu to CBJ rumour and maybe one of the GMs will catch wind of it? Their PP is last in the league and he's an old fan favorite. It basically writes itself.

We need a shake up.

Id prefer to start an Andrew MacDonald to Oilers rumour and hope Flames bite lol

 

[NeverForget06]

Taking players from Ottawa makes me a little nervous.

Hoffman is a stud, would take him.

Guys like Zack Smith and Pageau make me nervous. Both have pretty ridiculous contract for guys who have had 1 decent season in the NHL. Not worth the risk in my eyes.

Also, I know there is no way we are getting Karlsson, but I would be a little nervous about that ankle of his. I don't know that he will ever be the same player he once was. Still a great player that would instantly make this team a cup contender, but not the same guy he used to be.

 

[StevenF1919]

Anyone else think we should be looking at trading Draisaitl? He's overpaid by 2mil and still hasn't shown that he can drive his own line. If he can get a top pairing RHD in return then we should be jumping on it.

 

[McNuge]

Anyone else think we should be looking at trading Draisaitl? He's overpaid by 2mil and still hasn't shown that he can drive his own line. If he can get a top pairing RHD in return then we should be jumping on it.

f*** NO! Draisaitl has the ability to be the best player on the ice on any given night. He is young, growing in to his body, and is already strong as an ox. He is just inconsistent, kind of like Malkin just on a lower tier. He is locked in long term on what I think is going to be a fantastic contract in a year or 2 after some of the other young stars get their contracts. His skill set is just insane, you don't trade players like that.

Also it would depend on who the RHD was, but it would take something serious to get the convo started.