Rumor: Rumours & Proposals | Expansion Trade Freeze zzzzz Edition

[McVirginOil]

That entire 2nd line looked like ******* this year, I don't need all of the fancy stats to tell me otherwise. If you think he played well this year then who am I to tell you otherwise.

Eberle wasn't always on the 2nd line. this is Eberle's stats, not the 2nd line's

um this stat is not very fancy, cowboy, it literally is just points Eberle got for how many minutes he has played. I don't care what your eye saw, numbers don't lie, eyes do.

Lucic deal was always horrible day one, NMC and 6 years for a power forward at 29 is woof.

 

[McTedi]

To be honest even that Lucic deal ... I hate to say it but I don't think it will be a good one in 1-2 years we are going to grow to dislike it.

You're like a very negative Nostradamus Yah maybe but I still think this team needs him.

 

[guymez]

That entire 2nd line looked like ******* this year, I don't need all of the fancy stats to tell me otherwise. If you think he played well this year then who am I to tell you different.

I dont want to speak for McVirginoil but I dont think he was suggesting that Eberle played well.
He was just refuting Soundwaves claim (using a very useful stat) that Eberle was in a 4 year regression.

 

[McTedi]

Eberle wasn't always on the 2nd line. this is Eberle's stats, not the 2nd line's

um this stat is not very fancy, cowboy, it literally is just points Eberle got for how many minutes he has played. I don't care what your eye saw, numbers don't lie, eyes do.

Sometimes stats flatter a player, I think this year was a perfect example. And how was Ebs for you in the playoffs?

 

[Soundwave]

We can keep him for a year and then we'll trade him for like a 2nd rounder + cap dump next summer.

One way or another though he's gone. We can't afford him long term. You can keep 1 of Pouliot/RNH/Eberle within our cap structure long term, and take a wild guess which 2/3 are gone.

That's a possibility, though Chia is ****ed if Eberle has another declining year. Which is possible, people who say it's impossible are clearly being emotional.

Given that, honestly I don't have a huge problem with some kind of return of a Duclair/Strome/Murray type younger player with RFA years and lower salary in return. At least said player can play right away but is still young. A draft pick in 2018 ... that player probably is not going to play here for like 3-4 years if ever.

Eberle's not going to fetch some monster return even if he gets 60 points next year ... wingers with 1 year left on their deal even having good seasons return a low 1st if you're lucky. That's the market. Chiarelli is not Neo in the Matrix, and he's not going to be able to bend the rules of the market. He wasn't able to really return anything special for any of Hall, Schultz, Yakupov. Chia is a good GM but he's not like a "fleece the other guy in a trade" type GM, he pays market value for what he gets, sometimes more.

 

[guymez]

We can keep him for a year and then we'll trade him for like a 2nd rounder + cap dump next summer.

One way or another though he's gone. We can't afford him long term. You can keep 1 of Pouliot/RNH/Eberle within our cap structure long term, and take a wild guess which 2/3 are gone.

That's a possibility, though Chia is ****ed if Eberle has another declining year. Which is possible, people who say it's impossible are clearly being emotional.

Given that, honestly I don't have a huge problem with some kind of return of a Duclair/Strome/Murray type younger player with RFA years and lower salary in return. At least said player can play right away but is still young. A draft pick in 2018 ... that player probably is not going to play here for like 3-4 years if ever.

He's not going to fetch some monster return even if he gets 60 points next year ... wingers with 1 year left on their deal even having good seasons return a low 1st if you're lucky. That's the market.

Why is this the only other scenario? You suggest it is (which is false) and then you build an argument around it as if it is fact.

If the return is too low now it makes far more sense to consider trading Eberle at Christmas...why are you discounting that possibility?

 

[McVirginOil]

Sometimes stats flatter a player, I think this year was a perfect example. And how was Ebs for you in the playoffs?

Rating a player based on 13 games is very fallible and prone to a lot of mistakes in player evaluation. I know you're smarter than that.

Datsyuk got 6 points on his first 25 games in the playoffs, playoff production in such a small sample mean nothing to me because literally anything and everything can happen in the playoffs, you need bigger samples than 13 games to completely overwrite Eberle's career.

It's the same reason why I don't think Drai is a regular 27.3% shooter just because he did it in these 13 games.

 

[North]

We can keep him for a year and then we'll trade him for like a 2nd rounder + cap dump next summer.

One way or another though he's gone. We can't afford him long term. You can keep 1 of Pouliot/RNH/Eberle within our cap structure long term, and take a wild guess which 2/3 are gone.

That's a possibility, though Chia is ****ed if Eberle has another declining year. Which is possible, people who say it's impossible are clearly being emotional.

Given that, honestly I don't have a huge problem with some kind of return of a Duclair/Strome/Murray type younger player with RFA years and lower salary in return. At least said player can play right away but is still young. A draft pick in 2018 ... that player probably is not going to play here for like 3-4 years if ever.

He's not going to fetch some monster return even if he gets 60 points next year ... wingers with 1 year left on their deal even having good seasons return a low 1st if you're lucky. That's the market. Chiarelli is not Neo in the Matrix, and he's not going to be able to bend the rules of the market. He wasn't able to really return anything special for any of Hall, Schultz, Yakupov. Chia is a good GM but he's not like a "fleece the other guy in a trade" type GM, he pays market value for what he gets, sometimes more.

We do need to replenish our prospect pool in terms of forwards.

A draft pick (first or second) is something Chia should have included in any return for Eberle.

 

[North]

Why is this the only other scenario? You suggest it is (which is false) and then you build an argument around it as if it is fact.

If the return is too low now it makes far more sense to consider trading Eberle at Christmas...why are you discounting that possibility?

Good point. Some team might will probably hurting for scoring and come knocking.

Let's hope we have an option of our own to replace Eberle in the lineup.

 

[Soundwave]

We do need to replenish our prospect pool in terms of forwards.

A draft pick (first or second) is something Chia should have included in any return for Eberle.

I'd rather have a player that can play though.

Strome/Duclair/Murray may have issues but they all could be developed into players that contribute here for 5,6,7 years without having to wait years.

 

[Soundwave]

Why is this the only other scenario? You suggest it is (which is false) and then you build an argument around it as if it is fact.

If the return is too low now it makes far more sense to consider trading Eberle at Christmas...why are you discounting that possibility?

Even at Christmas, teams are not dumb, they will see he has only full year on his term.

That is effectively a rental because the dude can walk in a year basically. You're not going to get some massive return for him.

None of Hall, Yakupov, Schultz brought us some great return. Eberle won't either. Chia is going to have to trade him at some point for cap relief. There is no escaping that.

 

[guymez]

Good point. Some team might will probably hurting for scoring and come knocking.

Let's hope we have an option of our own to replace Eberle in the lineup.

100%...thats the kicker in all of this. The team is so thin down the right side that absolutely has to be addressed if Eberle is traded.

 

[Soundwave]

We need to replace

16 goals and 47 points on the right side if we trade Eberle. That is what Eberle scored in 80 games against an actual NHL team (not one icing a third string goalie and a half roster of AHL players).

And 2 assists in 13 playoff games. So 16 goals and 49 points in 95 games.

That is the production that needs to be replaced at a lower cap liability.

IMO there are multiple options that would satisfy that need.

Vanek + Murray

Vanek + Russell

Outproduce what Eberle brought to the table last year most likely. If we get two players that give us a combined 40-ish points while giving forward depth and defensive depth that would be pretty good.

 

[guymez]

Even at Christmas, teams are not dumb, they will see he has only full year on his term.

That is effectively a rental. You're not going to get some massive return for him.

None of Hall, Yakupov, Schultz brought us some great return. Eberle won't either. Chia is going to have to trade him at some point for cap relief. There is no escaping that.

An effective rental? With a season and a half left on his contract?
Thats just goofy. I mean earlier in this thread you were talking about his remaining 2 year term being a negative.

This expansion draft is an additional element which is going to enhance opportunities next season because there ARE going to be teams that lack goal scoring when they start to evaluate their teams around Christmas.
That is going to mean an opportunity for Chiarelli. Its not about teams being dumb...its about teams addressing needs and operating from a position of weakness which further plays into Chiarellis hands.
Its also not about a massive return....its about a reasonable return.

 

[Soundwave]

An effective rental? With a season and a half left on his contract?
Thats just goofy. I mean earlier in this thread you were talking about his remaining 2 year term being a negative.

This expansion draft is an additional element which is going to enhance opportunities next season because there ARE going to be teams that lack goal scoring when they start to evaluate their teams around Christmas.
That is going to mean an opportunity for Chiarelli. Its not about teams being dumb...its about teams addressing needs and operating from a position of weakness which further plays into Chiarellis hands.
Its also not about a massive return....its about a reasonable return.

The return will be a pick + cap dump (no team is taking on a $6 million player anymore unless you take some of their crap salary back).

What do you think is going to happen, we'll wait till Christmas, and Snow's heart will melt like the Grinch and he'll finally ship off Hamonic? C'mon.

Look at the returns on Kessel, Neal (who is going to Vegas likely for nothing), Hall, Perron, wingers don't return the packages people want. Rick Nash a 40-goal scorer 1st overall returned Brandon Dubinsky as the main piece, a guy who was coming off a 10-goal season (lol). But Jordan Eberle of all people is magically going to buck that trend.

GMs don't give a crap about what we think is "reasonable". They know Eberle has to go, we don't have the cap long term to keep him. That's the bottom line.

There's a better than 50% chance he's already played his last game as an Edmonton Oiler. There's a 98% chance I'd say that if not, he's traded in the next 12 months. And if the expectation of return is something "way more" than a Murray/Strome/Duclair, I'd say there's a 100% chance this board is going be fairly bummed on the return. We have to trade him and it has to be for a much lower cost player, likely a young RFA tier player who is not fully established in the league. Trading him for another $5 million dollar player doesn't do us much good cap wise.

 

[McTedi]

Rating a player based on 13 games is very fallible and prone to a lot of mistakes in player evaluation. I know you're smarter than that.

Datsyuk got 6 points on his first 25 games in the playoffs, playoff production in such a small sample mean nothing to me because literally anything and everything can happen in the playoffs, you need bigger samples than 13 games to completely overwrite Eberle's career.

It's the same reason why I don't think Drai is a regular 27.3% shooter just because he did it in these 13 games.

I have no doubt Ebs still has offensive instincts but I really did not enjoy watching him play this year. Can he rebound? absolutely but (again) can you honestly tell me he played well throughout the year and into the playoffs?

 

[Jet Walters]

We heard rumours of Chia being after Dumba a year ago at the draft. If Vegas is getting Vatanen do they really need Dumba too? Seems a little redundant as both guys should be on the 1st unit PP. Maybe we'll see RNH for Dumba + or even Eberle and a small + might get it done.

 

[guymez]

The return will be a pick + cap dump (no team is taking on a $6 million player anymore unless you take some of their crap salary back).

What do you think is going to happen, we'll wait till Christmas, and Snow's heart will melt like the Grinch and he'll finally ship off Hamonic? C'mon.

Wait...i thought the problem was that Eberle was only a rental? Now again you are suggesting that his term is an issue.
Pick a position.

As for what I think is going to happen. Well...I think that (based on history) Chairelli is going to be smart about how he handles this. He isnt nearly as angry at Eberle as you are and thats a positive IMO.

 

[McVirginOil]

I have no doubt Ebs still has offensive instincts but I really did not enjoy watching him play this year. Can he rebound? absolutely but (again) can you honestly tell me he played well throughout the year and into the playoffs?

I didn't say he played well, I'm saying to think he will never play better after this playoffs is lunacy.

I also think he played well in the regular season, just not to expectations and was super unlucky in his shooting %

 

[McVirginOil]

We heard rumours of Chia being after Dumba a year ago at the draft. If Vegas is getting Vatanen do they really need Dumba too? Seems a little redundant as both guys should be on the 1st unit PP. Maybe we'll see RNH for Dumba + or even Eberle and a small + might get it done.

I think Vegas should collect the best players available to flip for assets/players needed elsewhere

 

[hallhopkinseberle]

That entire 2nd line looked like ******* this year, I don't need all of the fancy stats to tell me otherwise. If you think he played well this year then who am I to tell you different.

The 2nd line was great last 20-30 games into the post-season and crap the rest of the way.

 

[guymez]

We heard rumours of Chia being after Dumba a year ago at the draft. If Vegas is getting Vatanen do they really need Dumba too? Seems a little redundant as both guys should be on the 1st unit PP. Maybe we'll see RNH for Dumba + or even Eberle and a small + might get it done.

I dont think that redundancy matters. Loading up on quality and then using that to create balance is how I expect them to operate.

 

[Paralyzer008]

Even though I think it's time to move on from Eberle, I do believe in shooting percentage being a regression thing and Eberle is a 13% career shooter.

(PS before I get into this, I know Ebs had 51 pts, but these calculations only account for 5v5 + 5v4 and don't get into any other situation like 6v4).

If you take his last 3 years, average it and then drop the percent .05 (accounted because the player is aging), he'd be projected to shoot 11.9% next year which is still under his usual average.

That's 25 goals if he shoots 200 shots again.

I'd still expect the same 33 5v5 points, his style of play is more of a perimeter and I don't see him suddenly becoming more dynamic. It appears he got most jipped on the PP, only posting a 95.7 PDO and only shooting 8%. His worst before that on the PP was 13% in his rookie year.

The question is: Why did he tank so hard on the PP this year? If it's just a matter of bad luck and not getting the bounces, I'd expect those numbers to correct themselves and that's probably an extra 10 points right there. 13 PP points becomes 23 PP points.

If I'm a team acquiring Eberle, I'm studying how he can fit on my PP to bounce back.

If you want to predict Eberle STRAIGHT off of math, it comes out to about:

25 goals, 31 assists, 56 points. Throw in a few points while on 6v4 and he could be at 60 points again healthy.
(EDIT: For fun, I'll guess 58 points is his final total for 2017-18.)

I think that has value. Whether or not he can produce in the playoffs is currently a wildcard. His first one was awful.

 

[McTedi]

The 2nd line was great last 20-30 games into the post-season and crap the rest of the way.

Depended on which 2nd line was playing, too much variation to define it. I personally thought the Nuges/Ebs line combination lacked offense.

 

[Soundwave]

We heard rumours of Chia being after Dumba a year ago at the draft. If Vegas is getting Vatanen do they really need Dumba too? Seems a little redundant as both guys should be on the 1st unit PP. Maybe we'll see RNH for Dumba + or even Eberle and a small + might get it done.

They'll ask for RNH for Dumba. I think Chia's hands are tied on this, he's too scared to take away the option of McDavid + Draisaitl from McLellan that he can't deal RNH unless a center is coming back, and we can't realistically be asking for a good center + a Matt Dumba for Ryan Nugent Hopkins, he has no where near that kind of value.

McDavid + Draisaitl being so good together is basically RNH's meal ticket here ... until Puljujarvi develops. The funny thing is when that golden ticket came up one of the most estatic things about it was the thought that we wouldn't have to worry about center depth for like 10 years. Tsk. Tsk.