Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

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Mortimer Snerd

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Totally agreed. Saying Little has injury concerns is just not a serious argument. He isn't injury prone - the injuries he has suffered were a result of egregious play by an opponent. He has returned to form - even better, after injuries. His average for games played in his career is still over 60 which is pretty good for a smaller forward who is a center and takes a beating.

I think he is one of those guys who will play until he's 40 or close. He's smart and skilled, and I think will overcome speed issues as he ages.

I'd go max years with him in order to get the AAV down

Don't they tend to be larger players who rely less on speed/quickness? Not debating, just asking.
 

Gm0ney

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Don't they tend to be larger players who rely less on speed/quickness? Not debating, just asking.

I don't know if that's a trend. Yzerman was 5'11, 185 lbs and played until he was 40. Recchi was 5'10", 185 and retired at 43. Gordie Howe was 6' - though I guess that was pretty big for his era...but he wasn't a monster. Ray Bourque was only 6' as well - not big for a defenseman, anyway...
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I don't know if that's a trend. Yzerman was 5'11, 185 lbs and played until he was 40. Recchi was 5'10", 185 and retired at 43. Gordie Howe was 6' - though I guess that was pretty big for his era...but he wasn't a monster. Ray Bourque was only 6' as well - not big for a defenseman, anyway...

At 6', 205 Howe was a big man in his day but those others are good examples. I was thinking of Doan, Jagr, Iginla, etc. Maybe there isn't a type that is that easily identified. Does their lifetime injury load come into play?
 

Gm0ney

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At 6', 205 Howe was a big man in his day but those others are good examples. I was thinking of Doan, Jagr, Iginla, etc. Maybe there isn't a type that is that easily identified. Does their lifetime injury load come into play?

All played until at least 40: St. Louis, 5'8". Ray Whitney 5'10". Adam Oates, 5'11". Daniel Alfredsson, 5'11", Brett Hull, 5'11", Joe Mullen, 5'9".

There are lots of bigger guys too, of course. Must have to do with genetics, fitness, injury history and skill level (they can afford to lose a step - make it up with hands, smarts, etc.).
 

Mortimer Snerd

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All played until at least 40: St. Louis, 5'8". Ray Whitney 5'10". Adam Oates, 5'11". Daniel Alfredsson, 5'11", Brett Hull, 5'11", Joe Mullen, 5'9".

There are lots of bigger guys too, of course. Must have to do with genetics, fitness, injury history and skill level (they can afford to lose a step - make it up with hands, smarts, etc.).

Obviously they have to be good players to begin with, but beyond that what are the characteristics that we could use to predict exceptionally long careers? Committment to excellence, fitness? Clean living? What's the difference between a Mike Richards and a Shane Doan?
 

ps241

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Obviously they have to be good players to begin with, but beyond that what are the characteristics that we could use to predict exceptionally long careers? Committment to excellence, fitness? Clean living? What's the difference between a Mike Richards and a Shane Doan?

Well I can tell you Little is a really disciplined, clean living guy. After the game with the teammates Chicken breast dinner with rice and water and not the have a beer type of guy....always fit and really committed to his craft. Not saying he never has a drink but it is on the rare occasion.
 

MoreMorrissey

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Obviously they have to be good players to begin with, but beyond that what are the characteristics that we could use to predict exceptionally long careers? Committment to excellence, fitness? Clean living? What's the difference between a Mike Richards and a Shane Doan?

Really just the substance abuse/addiction issues
 

Daximus

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Obviously they have to be good players to begin with, but beyond that what are the characteristics that we could use to predict exceptionally long careers? Committment to excellence, fitness? Clean living? What's the difference between a Mike Richards and a Shane Doan?

Jagr partied pretty heavily in his youth and has still managed to have one of the longest careers.
 

Flair Hay

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Obviously they have to be good players to begin with, but beyond that what are the characteristics that we could use to predict exceptionally long careers? Committment to excellence, fitness? Clean living? What's the difference between a Mike Richards and a Shane Doan?

Drugs?
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Really just the substance abuse/addiction issues

What's the difference between a Mike RichardsDustin Brown and a Shane Doan?

OK, change Kings player. :laugh:

I am generally assuming most good players run out of gas around 33-34 YO. Those who last longer are the exceptions. Maybe I need to extend my expectation by a few years but I don't think so.

There must be factors that indicate who will have a long career and who won't. Substance abuse is an obvious one. The sports hernia for those over 30 is another. Is that all? Some back injuries should be on the list. General wear and tear, accumulated injuries, crash bang style? Combinations of all of the above? How can we predict it?
 

puck stoppa

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OK, change Kings player. :laugh:

I am generally assuming most good players run out of gas around 33-34 YO. Those who last longer are the exceptions. Maybe I need to extend my expectation by a few years but I don't think so.

There must be factors that indicate who will have a long career and who won't. Substance abuse is an obvious one. The sports hernia for those over 30 is another. Is that all? Some back injuries should be on the list. General wear and tear, accumulated injuries, crash bang style? Combinations of all of the above? How can we predict it?

Genetics. I know a few guys who never worked out, were in great shape and played long NHL careers. You won't find your answer, too many different reasons, each guy is different.
 

Daximus

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He's far more gifted than Richards or Doan. Those with elite skill can usually hang around longer.

Well yeah that usually goes without saying but I'm just saying you can ride yourself pretty hard and still manage to last quite awhile. Injuries play the biggest role. Some guys are just durable and some aren't. Guys like Jagr and Ovi are durable. Guys like Gretz and Orr just weren't. Elite skill aside. Ovi loves to party and he could probably play until he's 40 as well relatively injury free.
 

Daximus

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OK, change Kings player. :laugh:

I am generally assuming most good players run out of gas around 33-34 YO. Those who last longer are the exceptions. Maybe I need to extend my expectation by a few years but I don't think so.

There must be factors that indicate who will have a long career and who won't. Substance abuse is an obvious one. The sports hernia for those over 30 is another. Is that all? Some back injuries should be on the list. General wear and tear, accumulated injuries, crash bang style? Combinations of all of the above? How can we predict it?

I still don't think substance abuse will put you out necessarily. It can be a distraction but I don't think it wears guys out that much. Most 70 year old rock and rollers could probably run laps around most 70 year old hockey players. I think it all comes down to how durable your body is. You can be in the greatest shape of your life but a back injury can change all of that just ask Gretzky.
 

nobody important

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Well I can tell you Little is a really disciplined, clean living guy. After the game with the teammates Chicken breast dinner with rice and water and not the have a beer type of guy....always fit and really committed to his craft. Not saying he never has a drink but it is on the rare occasion.

Jesus, that's a meal for a prison inmate. What's the point of having all that money if you aren't going to enjoy life to excess? :nod:
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I still don't think substance abuse will put you out necessarily. It can be a distraction but I don't think it wears guys out that much. Most 70 year old rock and rollers could probably run laps around most 70 year old hockey players. I think it all comes down to how durable your body is. You can be in the greatest shape of your life but a back injury can change all of that just ask Gretzky.

So ..... what it comes down to is that it is pretty much unpredictable. Look at individual players and make your best guess.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I still don't think substance abuse will put you out necessarily. It can be a distraction but I don't think it wears guys out that much. Most 70 year old rock and rollers could probably run laps around most 70 year old hockey players. I think it all comes down to how durable your body is. You can be in the greatest shape of your life but a back injury can change all of that just ask Gretzky.

So ..... what it comes down to is that it is pretty much unpredictable. Look at individual players and make your best guess.

Edit: Not sure about those 70 YO rock and rollers. :laugh:
 

Holden Caulfield

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OK, change Kings player. :laugh:

I am generally assuming most good players run out of gas around 33-34 YO. Those who last longer are the exceptions. Maybe I need to extend my expectation by a few years but I don't think so.

There must be factors that indicate who will have a long career and who won't. Substance abuse is an obvious one. The sports hernia for those over 30 is another. Is that all? Some back injuries should be on the list. General wear and tear, accumulated injuries, crash bang style? Combinations of all of the above? How can we predict it?

I think those that depend on physical attributes end up struggling more than those that have great hockey sense.

Dustin Brown for example, is a guy who was fast and hit like a ton of bricks. Played simple north south game depended on his speed and strength. He was never an elite hockey sense type of player. The reason his decline has been so steep if he's had multiple knee surgeries that just completely eliminated his speed. Without those the dropoff would have been slower and a little later, but by 32-33 it'd have been really noticeable anyways, IMO.

A guy like Evander Kane I expect a quicker drop off as well. Maybe not as quick as Brown assuming he stays healthier, but being dependent on those physical gifts means the drop offs will happen sooner.

Guys like St. Louis, Jagr, Doan all had great hockey IQ. They knew how to play around people, rather than having to play through (in their prime they could do both, but as you get older you need those smarts). This is not a hard and fast rule, but I think it's why you see guys like Justin Williams who was never a superstar but just solid being able to outlast guys like Dany Heatley (same draft class). Williams never had the raw skills of Heatley and we see that in Heatley's prime being much better than Williams, but his hockey IQ has allowed him to stay relevant longer.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I think those that depend on physical attributes end up struggling more than those that have great hockey sense.

Dustin Brown for example, is a guy who was fast and hit like a ton of bricks. Played simple north south game depended on his speed and strength. He was never an elite hockey sense type of player. The reason his decline has been so steep if he's had multiple knee surgeries that just completely eliminated his speed. Without those the dropoff would have been slower and a little later, but by 32-33 it'd have been really noticeable anyways, IMO.

A guy like Evander Kane I expect a quicker drop off as well. Maybe not as quick as Brown assuming he stays healthier, but being dependent on those physical gifts means the drop offs will happen sooner.

Guys like St. Louis, Jagr, Doan all had great hockey IQ. They knew how to play around people, rather than having to play through (in their prime they could do both, but as you get older you need those smarts). This is not a hard and fast rule, but I think it's why you see guys like Justin Williams who was never a superstar but just solid being able to outlast guys like Dany Heatley (same draft class). Williams never had the raw skills of Heatley and we see that in Heatley's prime being much better than Williams, but his hockey IQ has allowed him to stay relevant longer.

Makes sense. The brain deteriorates with age too but generally much later - unless you've had too many blows to the head. Maybe the frequently concussed will age out earlier too.
 

Daximus

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Hey look at Keith Richards... dude will live for ever like a cockroach.

Iggy Pop, Jagger, Stevie Tyler. Most of these dudes are in their 70's and after partying harder than probably any NHLer could ever dream of they still manage to get up on stage and put on a show. Yeah there are definitely a few Ozzies out there that are just fried but a good majority of them are still able to get on stage and run around like an 18 year old. Substance abuse is a fickle thing but I don't think it ruins careers in a physical way more so then it becomes a distraction or in some cases an escape from a larger problem. Then there are the unlucky few who are likely dabbling in substance abuse because of brain related issues but that stems more from getting smashed in the head repeatedly over a their typically short careers.
You look at a guy like Kassian who had some major substance abuse problems and as soon as he kicks them he is back in game shape and was actually not bad for the Oilers this year in a limited role. I don't think substance abuse really takes a toll on these guys as much as it takes away from them actually staying in shape and being dedicated to the game. It's NHL has kept a pretty tight lid on it's substance abuse problem but knowing guys that have been in and around the pro circuit party scenes there is definitely a problem that is a lot larger than the NHL makes it out to be some guys are just deeper than others.
 

ps241

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Well yeah that usually goes without saying but I'm just saying you can ride yourself pretty hard and still manage to last quite awhile. Injuries play the biggest role. Some guys are just durable and some aren't. Guys like Jagr and Ovi are durable. Guys like Gretz and Orr just weren't. Elite skill aside. Ovi loves to party and he could probably play until he's 40 as well relatively injury free.

The one thing I will be watching with Ovi this season is his shot totals

13-14 386
14-15 395
15-16 398
16-17 313 (yikes)

Wonder if he was nursing an injury this past season?
 

ps241

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Iggy Pop, Jagger, Stevie Tyler. Most of these dudes are in their 70's and after partying harder than probably any NHLer could ever dream of they still manage to get up on stage and put on a show. Yeah there are definitely a few Ozzies out there that are just fried but a good majority of them are still able to get on stage and run around like an 18 year old. Substance abuse is a fickle thing but I don't think it ruins careers in a physical way more so then it becomes a distraction or in some cases an escape from a larger problem. Then there are the unlucky few who are likely dabbling in substance abuse because of brain related issues but that stems more from getting smashed in the head repeatedly over a their typically short careers.
You look at a guy like Kassian who had some major substance abuse problems and as soon as he kicks them he is back in game shape and was actually not bad for the Oilers this year in a limited role. I don't think substance abuse really takes a toll on these guys as much as it takes away from them actually staying in shape and being dedicated to the game. It's NHL has kept a pretty tight lid on it's substance abuse problem but knowing guys that have been in and around the pro circuit party scenes there is definitely a problem that is a lot larger than the NHL makes it out to be some guys are just deeper than others.

Yes youth, looks, fame, and extreme wealth is a toxic combination (I assume). Many guys in the NHL go really hard but being in extremely good condition and being young can mask allot. Guys can crush it on and off the ice for a while unless they let it get too carried away.
 

Daximus

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Yes youth, looks, fame, and extreme wealth is a toxic combination (I assume). Many guys in the NHL go really hard but being in extremely good condition and being young can mask allot. Guys can crush it on and off the ice for a while unless they let it get too carried away.

Yeah there's all kinds of stories out there about Jagr, Iggy, Ryan Smyth, E.Kane, P.Kane, Johansen, plus the people I personally know who have been involved with hockey party scenes. [mod]
 
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