Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

[KingBogo]

I don't agree with the bolded. You may have other points about usage etc. but there is no sharp change in his performance. He improved gradually and slightly to the '15 season and then fell off gradually and slightly since. The difference from his best to his worst season is not all that great if we make a bit of an allowance for his injury last year. Otherwise he has never been either very good or very bad. If he rebounds to his best he isn't an Enstrom replacement. That would be a #2. He might be a 2nd pair Dman if we get lucky.

Wiercioch has also fallen off a bit over the last couple of years. I can't go into sufficient detail to determine if there is a usage explanation for that or not. Over their careers Wiercioch has had better numbers in every year in the NHL. He has done that while playing only about half as many games and fewer min/gm.

I'm not making any attempt at an exact comparison between the 2 players. A superficial look at some statistics says that Wiercioch has been the more effective player. That is sufficient when Kulikov is making five and a half times as much money to know that there is a market inefficiency, on at least one end, more likely both IMO. Wiercioch is a bargain and Kulikov is overpaid. Are they equal in value? I can't say that. Should they be at 5.5:1? No way.

What I'm finding humerus about the Wiercioch Kulikov debate is that Wiercioch came into the league as basically Logan Stanley. An oversized guy with big questions around skating and mobility. While Kulikov came into the league as everyone's favourite d prospect making just about all mock drafts top 10. A strong skating, mobile puck mover with above PPG junior scoring numbers. Maybe how they are currently seen is a carry over on how GM's saw the 2 players in the past, but Kulikov has more pure talent however it still remains a question if he can re-find his game at age 26.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What I'm finding humerus about the Wiercioch Kulikov debate is that Wiercioch came into the league as basically Logan Stanley. An oversized guy with big questions around skating and mobility. While Kulikov came into the league as everyone's favourite d prospect making just about all mock drafts top 10. A strong skating, mobile puck mover with above PPG junior scoring numbers. Maybe how they are currently seen is a carry over on how GM's saw the 2 players in the past, but Kulikov has more pure talent however it still remains a question if he can re-find his game at age 26.

Yeah, I get the irony.

No disputing that Kulikov has more pure talent. Maybe we get to be the beneficiaries of it. I was never against signing Kuli, in fact I think I remember suggesting him some months back. I'm only saying that we overpaid. Oh, and that some people's expectations seem to be too high

I expect our D to be better with him than with Chiarot whether he plays with Buff or with Myers. I just hope he isn't paired with Trouba.

 

[surixon]

I don't agree with the bolded. You may have other points about usage etc. but there is no sharp change in his performance. He improved gradually and slightly to the '15 season and then fell off gradually and slightly since. The difference from his best to his worst season is not all that great if we make a bit of an allowance for his injury last year. Otherwise he has never been either very good or very bad. If he rebounds to his best he isn't an Enstrom replacement. That would be a #2. He might be a 2nd pair Dman if we get lucky.

Wiercioch has also fallen off a bit over the last couple of years. I can't go into sufficient detail to determine if there is a usage explanation for that or not. Over their careers Wiercioch has had better numbers in every year in the NHL. He has done that while playing only about half as many games and fewer min/gm.

I'm not making any attempt at an exact comparison between the 2 players. A superficial look at some statistics says that Wiercioch has been the more effective player. That is sufficient when Kulikov is making five and a half times as much money to know that there is a market inefficiency, on at least one end, more likely both IMO. Wiercioch is a bargain and Kulikov is overpaid. Are they equal in value? I can't say that. Should they be at 5.5:1? No way.

I don't think I've ever argued that Kulikov wasn't overpaid. But there has been a substantial difference in how they have been used over the years. You say Kulikov wasn't good well we can agree to disagree. Over those first 4 years he averaged 21.07 ice time per game and scored at .34ppg (paced 28 points in a year) while being a positive shot differential player at 50.26 CF%. This is while getting an offensive zone % of 50.17. Id argue those are quality 2nd pairing numbers across the board and show that he was living up to his potential. If he returns to that he's market value for his contract. We will just have to wait and see how things unfold.

 

[scelaton]

I don't think I've ever argued that Kulikov wasn't overpaid. But there has been a substantial difference in how they have been used over the years. You say Kulikov wasn't good well we can agree to disagree. Over those first 4 years he averaged 21.07 ice time per game and scored at .34ppg (paced 28 points in a year) while being a positive shot differential player at 50.26 CF%. This is while getting an offensive zone % of 50.17. Id argue those are quality 2nd pairing numbers across the board and show that he was living up to his potential. If he returns to that he's market value for his contract. We will just have to wait and see how things unfold.

This is essentially my stance. Those PPG and TOI totals are #3D levels, and, of his other seasons, 1 was his rookie season (and how many D ever play in their draft year) and another (last year) was a complete write off due to injury.
This over-payment angst is much ado about nothing, because he cost us no player assets, we needed him to get into the playoffs this year and have enough cap room to afford him. By the time the cap gets tight, he will be expendable.

 

[Gm0ney]

I wonder if other fan bases have as many fans that conplain when their GM doesn't pick up border line NHL players like Barbario.

Are you complimenting Jets fans on their commitment and passion for the team that they bemoan every missed opportunity to improve the roster? Or are you complaining that Jets fans complain too much?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think I've ever argued that Kulikov wasn't overpaid. But there has been a substantial difference in how they have been used over the years. You say Kulikov wasn't good well we can agree to disagree. Over those first 4 years he averaged 21.07 ice time per game and scored at .34ppg (paced 28 points in a year) while being a positive shot differential player at 50.26 CF%. This is while getting an offensive zone % of 50.17. Id argue those are quality 2nd pairing numbers across the board and show that he was living up to his potential. If he returns to that he's market value for his contract. We will just have to wait and see how things unfold.

I didn't say he wasn't good. I said he wasn't very good. And he wasn't very bad. Those are some pretty good numbers. Better than I would have thought, though I knew he had scored better than he did later.

We will have to wait and see. If he returns to those numbers that will be better than I am expecting but I won't complain.

 

[Jets]

B Little 8yrs 44M$ plz

 

[10Ducky10]

8 years?
I'd prefer 4 years.

 

[ennsjd07]

I Second This...

8 years?
I'd prefer 4 years.

Please not 8 years. We don't need a team of 40 year olds. We need a team that stays relatively young. Bryan Little won't be able to keep up in 6 years, let alone 8. Plus, by that point in time he's going to be extremely injury prone, instead of being moderately injury prone as he currently is.

4 Years TOPS.
Also, that Buff contract is WAYYYYY too long. We signed him for 7 years for the next 3 years.
Those extra 3 years on the back end, he's going to end up being 3rd pairing D... if that. If he's playing at all. Who knows how long he's gonna hold up?

All that being said. I'm pretty stoked for this year. Those two, provided they can stay healthy, are going to make a heck of a difference on this team.

 

[mcpw]

8 years?
I'd prefer 4 years.

I'd prefer to let Little walk and sign Tavares for 5 years

 

[ffh]

Please not 8 years. We don't need a team of 40 year olds. We need a team that stays relatively young. Bryan Little won't be able to keep up in 6 years, let alone 8. Plus, by that point in time he's going to be extremely injury prone, instead of being moderately injury prone as he currently is.

4 Years TOPS.
Also, that Buff contract is WAYYYYY too long. We signed him for 7 years for the next 3 years.
Those extra 3 years on the back end, he's going to end up being 3rd pairing D... if that. If he's playing at all. Who knows how long he's gonna hold up?

All that being said. I'm pretty stoked for this year. Those two, provided they can stay healthy, are going to make a heck of a difference on this team.

if little gets 7 years in free agency from 30 teams how do we get him for 4. let alone we have no one to replace him. he should be able to play till his mid 30's easy. also buff signed a 5 year contract not 7.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

Are you complimenting Jets fans on their commitment and passion for the team that they bemoan every missed opportunity to improve the roster? Or are you complaining that Jets fans complain too much?

Little from Column A, mostly from column B.

 

[broinwhyteridge]

I wonder if other fan bases have as many fans that conplain when their GM doesn't pick up border line NHL players like Barbario.

Other fan bases don't have a GM that takes 6 years to address obvious and easy to fix deficiencies in the team.

 

[WerdnaG]

I'd prefer to let Little walk and sign Tavares for 5 years

Just five?

 

[Royale With Cheese]

I wonder if other fan bases have as many fans that conplain when their GM doesn't pick up border line NHL players like Barbario.

Other fan bases don't have a GM that takes 6 years to address obvious and easy to fix deficiencies in the team.

Touché

 

[Constable]

What I'm finding humerus about the Wiercioch Kulikov debate is that Wiercioch came into the league as basically Logan Stanley. An oversized guy with big questions around skating and mobility. While Kulikov came into the league as everyone's favourite d prospect making just about all mock drafts top 10. A strong skating, mobile puck mover with above PPG junior scoring numbers. Maybe how they are currently seen is a carry over on how GM's saw the 2 players in the past, but Kulikov has more pure talent however it still remains a question if he can re-find his game at age 26.

The issue with Kulikov isn't anything about upside- it's very simply cost control. If you triple the money Wiercioch got its still just slightly above half of what Kulikov got- and they do the exact same thing.

 

[JetsFan815]

Agreed. Not many bargains to be had July 1st. But we needed Chevy to fill the LHD hole pretty much any way he could. But on the positive side it seems like only yesterday Kulikov was the can't miss prospect that could skate and move the puck. He seemed to start his career well enough then struggled, followed by a bad injury that took a big part of last season. If he gets to anywhere near the player he was he is a huge upgrade over Stu and Chiarot.

But there were many bargains to be had.

My jaw dropped when I saw how cheap Schlemko went for. The Jets could have thrown in a 5th and had Schlemko in the Kulikov role for half the price. A guy who has played on a contender and looked good doing it. He was perfect for the Jets.

Then the Jets could have signed Weircoch for 1 million in the Chiarot role and let Chiarot walk.

Finally they could have signed Yohann Auvitu to be the the NHL/AHL tweener to play on the Moose and step in incase of injuries so that guys like Melchiori are not relied upon.

Schlemko - 2018 5th + 2.1 million
Weircoch - 1 million
Auvitu - 900k
-------------------------------------------------
Total: 4 million

As opposed to what we did:
Kulikov - 4.33 million
Chiarot - 1.4 million
-------------------------------------------------
Total: 5.73 million

Under option A the Jets save 1.73 million and also get 3 players who combined imo provide more value than the guys we signed.

Kulikov is what he is. I doubt he is going to miraculously turn into something that he has not shown himself to be. He will be 27 at the start of the season not 20. I find it hard to believe that he is worth double David Schlemko. I can understand people having doubts about Weircoch as he has not played consistent minutes but Schlemko is a proven commodity, what makes Kulikov so much better than him? I believe the Jets paid a premium for the "Kulikov" name and pedigree.

 

[ffh]

The issue with Kulikov isn't anything about upside- it's very simply cost control. If you triple the money Wiercioch got its still just slightly above half of what Kulikov got- and they do the exact same thing.

if its about money only and there are no cap concerns why does it matter to the fans if it doesn't matter to the team that's paying him.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

if its about money only and there are no cap concerns why does it matter to the fans if it doesn't matter to the team that's paying him.

'Cuz we're Winnipegers?

 

[ps241]

But there were many bargains to be had.

My jaw dropped when I saw how cheap Schlemko went for. The Jets could have thrown in a 5th and had Schlemko in the Kulikov role for half the price. A guy who has played on a contender and looked good doing it. He was perfect for the Jets.

Then the Jets could have signed Weircoch for 1 million in the Chiarot role and let Chiarot walk.

Finally they could have signed Yohann Auvitu to be the the NHL/AHL tweener to play on the Moose and step in incase of injuries so that guys like Melchiori are not relied upon.

Schlemko - 2018 5th + 2.1 million
Weircoch - 1 million
Auvitu - 900k
-------------------------------------------------
Total: 4 million

As opposed to what we did:
Kulikov - 4.33 million
Chiarot - 1.4 million
-------------------------------------------------
Total: 5.73 million

Under option A the Jets save 1.73 million and also get 3 players who combined imo provide more value than the guys we signed.

Kulikov is what he is. I doubt he is going to miraculously turn into something that he has not shown himself to be. He will be 27 at the start of the season not 20. I find it hard to believe that he is worth double David Schlemko. I can understand people having doubts about Weircoch as he has not played consistent minutes but Schlemko is a proven commodity, what makes Kulikov so much better than him? I believe the Jets paid a premium for the "Kulikov" name and pedigree.

Just to add a bit of context......I was at a session where Zinger was chatting to some Jets fans in a Q&A this season and I pressed him a bit on why a draft and develop team wouldn't employ the Toronto Winnik sign and churn a FA for draft pick model here in Winnipeg and Craig was uncomfortable saying it out loud but I got the very strong sense Winnipeg had offered Winnik more money but he turned it down to play in Toronto.

I agree with you that I think Winnipeg probably value Kuli more but both Schlemko and Weircoch might have had designs on Vancouver and Montreal.

I will admit its a bit of an odd market place and some guys like Weircoch get undervalued by the league. Neither the Sens nor the Lanche appeared that jazzed about his despite his numbers?

 

[Gm0ney]

Just to add a bit of context......I was at a session where Zinger was chatting to some Jets fans in a Q&A this season and I pressed him a bit on why a draft and develop team wouldn't employ the Toronto Winnik sign and churn a FA for draft pick model here in Winnipeg and Craig was uncomfortable saying it out loud but I got the very strong sense Winnipeg had offered Winnik more money but he turned it down to play in Toronto.

I agree with you that I think Winnipeg probably value Kuli more but both Schlemko and Weircoch might have had designs on Vancouver and Montreal.

I will admit its a bit of an odd market place and some guys like Weircoch get undervalued by the league. Neither the Sens nor the Lanche appeared that jazzed about his despite his numbers?

Schlemko was traded and has no NTC/NMC so he wouidn't have had much say. And he's from Edmonton, so it's not like he isn't used to winter and such.

I just don't think the Jets were interested in him. Not their type. They're looking for a guy to fill Stu's skates...hard nosed, shot blocking, hitting, stay at home. That doesn't describe Wiercioch either.

Now, why they think they need that type of defenseman when all they've got to show for 6 years of Stu is godawful defensive results, well, maybe that'll come up at the next Zinger Q&A...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

if its about money only and there are no cap concerns why does it matter to the fans if it doesn't matter to the team that's paying him.

In what Universe are there no cap concerns?

There is no real problem this year. Next year is another story and the year after there will be issues.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

In what Universe are there no cap concerns?

This year? The Jets universe.

There is no real problem this year.

This guy has it right!

Next year is another story and the year after there will be issues.

Of course, but there is no issue this year, which is what most are talking about regarding where they sit and the recent signings.

 

[surixon]

Schlemko was traded and has no NTC/NMC so he wouidn't have had much say. And he's from Edmonton, so it's not like he isn't used to winter and such.

I just don't think the Jets were interested in him. Not their type. They're looking for a guy to fill Stu's skates...hard nosed, shot blocking, hitting, stay at home. That doesn't describe Wiercioch either.

Now, why they think they need that type of defenseman when all they've got to show for 6 years of Stu is godawful defensive results, well, maybe that'll come up at the next Zinger Q&A...

As I showed Kulikov has a 250 game sample at the bginning of his career as a quality top 4 dmen that posted solid all around results. Wether right or wrong Wericotch has never been given the opportunity to play a top 4 role. Yes killed it in an offensive minded third pair role.

I dont buy the Stuart angle at all imo despite his struggles the last few years Kulikov has a past track record of being able to contribute in a top 4 role. They likely see him as reclamation project that they hope get back to earlier career form.

He also better fits the age range of the team than Schemelko and if he regains form will be able to replace Toby.

There is definite risk of this signing not working out but I find a number of people are ignoring Kulikov's earlier body of work and just focusing on the last few years. I don't think anybody here is expecting him to magically turn into a impact top pairing dmen, but a return to a quality 2nd pairing player shouldn't be out of question considering he has already shown the ability to play at that level over a significant sample.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Just to add a bit of context......I was at a session where Zinger was chatting to some Jets fans in a Q&A this season and I pressed him a bit on why a draft and develop team wouldn't employ the Toronto Winnik sign and churn a FA for draft pick model here in Winnipeg and Craig was uncomfortable saying it out loud but I got the very strong sense Winnipeg had offered Winnik more money but he turned it down to play in Toronto.

I agree with you that I think Winnipeg probably value Kuli more but both Schlemko and Weircoch might have had designs on Vancouver and Montreal.

I will admit its a bit of an odd market place and some guys like Weircoch get undervalued by the league. Neither the Sens nor the Lanche appeared that jazzed about his despite his numbers?

I hate this more than the "Winnipeg Tax". There is always some hypothetical 'what if'. What if we had won the lottery in '15? What if Frolik had loved Winnipeg so much he was willing to take a discount? What if _____ _____ _____ ?