Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

[puck stoppa]

Trade Myers and sign Enstrom on the cheap and we're good to go (Assuming Trouba signs)
JMo Trouba
Kulikov Buff
Enstrom Poolman
Chiarot Morrow extras
Niku starts with Moose and works his way up like Connor and Roslo last few seasons.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Trade Myers and sign Enstrom on the cheap and we're good to go (Assuming Trouba signs)
JMo Trouba
Kulikov Buff
Enstrom Poolman
Chiarot Morrow extras
Niku starts with Moose and works his way up like Connor and Roslo last few seasons.

That works only for 1 year. Assume both Myers and Enstrom gone the next year as well as Mason and look at what we have for cap room. We need the cap to take another big jump.

2019/2020 Low Mid High Bonus Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $6,000,000 $6,500,000 $7,000,000 Perreault $4,125,000 $4,125,000 $4,125,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $3,000,000 $6,500,000 $7,500,000 Connor $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $5,500,000 Copp $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 Dano $875,000 $900,000 $925,000 Lowry $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 Armia $1,400,000 $1,800,000 $2,200,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $894,166 $212,500 Tanev $750,000 $850,000 $900,000 Lemieux $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 14 Forwards $42,060,832 $47,485,832 $53,060,832 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Trouba $5,250,000 $5,600,000 $6,000,000 Morrissey $3,000,000 $5,350,000 $5,750,000 Poolman $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $775,000 xxx $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,500,000 7 Defense $22,958,333 $26,108,333 $27,358,333 Hellebuyck $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 xxx $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,500,000 2 Goalies $5,000,000 $5,750,000 $6,500,000 23 Players Total $70,019,165 $79,344,165 $86,919,165 $212,500 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The fact is that we are going to be cap squeezed from here on unless we move a big contract or two. Every time we contemplate signing a UFA or trading for a player not on a cheap contract we will have to move out salary to accommodate the new player.

We have been in the habit of imagining our team with this ir that addition and not worrying much about cap. We can't do that anymore.

 

[cbcwpg]

One thing about good teams.... they are not cheap nor easy to keep together.

 

[Weezeric]

That works only for 1 year. Assume both Myers and Enstrom gone the next year as well as Mason and look at what we have for cap room. We need the cap to take another big jump.

2019/2020 Performance Bonus Low Mid High Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $6,000,000 $6,500,000 $7,000,000 Perreault $4,125,000 $4,125,000 $4,125,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $3,000,000 $6,500,000 $7,500,000 Connor $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $5,500,000 Copp $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 Dano $875,000 $900,000 $925,000 Lowry $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 Armia $1,400,000 $1,800,000 $2,200,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $894,166 $212,500 Tanev $750,000 $850,000 $900,000 Lemieux $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 14 Forwards $42,060,832 $47,485,832 $53,060,832 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Trouba $5,250,000 $5,600,000 $6,000,000 Morrissey $3,000,000 $5,350,000 $5,750,000 Poolman $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $775,000 xxx $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,500,000 7 Defense $22,958,333 $26,108,333 $27,358,333 Hellebuyck $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 xxx $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,500,000 2 Goalies $5,000,000 $5,750,000 $6,500,000 23 Players Total $70,019,165 $79,344,165 $86,919,165 $212,500 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The fact is that we are going to be cap squeezed from here on unless we move a big contract or two. Every time we contemplate signing a UFA or trading for a player not on a cheap contract we will have to move out salary to accommodate the new player.

We have been in the habit of imagining our team with this ir that addition and not worrying much about cap. We can't do that anymore.

The cap is projected to be over 80 million next season right? It's possible that the cap could be high enough to be compliant with your high projections. I find it very unlikely however than players like copp or armia will be getting payed 2+ million to play on the 4th line. They're likely replaced with <1 million dollar players.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The cap is projected to be over 80 million next season right? It's possible that the cap could be high enough to be compliant with your high projections. I find it very unlikely however than players like copp or armia will be getting payed 2+ million to play on the 4th line. They're likely replaced with <1 million dollar players.

I can't see the cap rising that much. I don't think we come in quite at the high total either. Some players will hit those high #'s but I expect the total will be somewhere between the mid & high guesstimates. Lets say around 82-83 mil.

The point here is not really to get perfect estimates. It is to paint a picture of the overall cap situation. That situation now is that we can't make any expensive additions without deleting cap hit somewhere else.

Copp and Armia around the mid numbers are good value, I think. The savings for replacing them with cheaper contracts are not that large. Not worth the drop in performance, IMO. If you also consider the difference in trade return, I would rather move 1 big contract.

 

[Maukkis]

I'd like to see Chevy sign UFA De Haan this summer.

You might want to get familiar with this little concept called "salary cap". Most of your roster suggestions completely ignore the fact that our financial wiggle room is very limited, and it will stay that way for the next eternity. This one is no different.

At most, we could use a #6 defenseman, should Enstrom leave in July. Whoever that guy is, he cannot cost much at all.

 

[Weezeric]

I can't see the cap rising that much. I don't think we come in quite at the high total either. Some players will hit those high #'s but I expect the total will be somewhere between the mid & high guesstimates. Lets say around 82-83 mil.

The point here is not really to get perfect estimates. It is to paint a picture of the overall cap situation. That situation now is that we can't make any expensive additions without deleting cap hit somewhere else.

Copp and Armia around the mid numbers are good value, I think. The savings for replacing them with cheaper contracts are not that large. Not worth the drop in performance, IMO. If you also consider the difference in trade return, I would rather move 1 big contract.

I believe the cap is projected to be 80-82M for the 2018-19 season. Could very well be 85+ for 2019-20.

NHL Salary Cap Could Significantly Increase for 2018-19 | Spectors Hockey

 

[Aavco Cup]

I believe the cap is projected to be 80-82M for the 2018-19 season. Could very well be 85+ for 2019-20.

NHL Salary Cap Could Significantly Increase for 2018-19 | Spectors Hockey

The last range quoted by the NHL was $78-$82M. So people are just using $80 as a rough guide. It could be higher. A lot depends on what escalator they choose

 

[Gm0ney]

The last range quoted by the NHL was $78-$82M. So people are just using $80 as a rough guide. It could be higher. A lot depends on what escalator they choose

$78M if the Leafs go out in the first round, $82M if they make the Finals.

(It would take HRR of $248M US to move the cap ceiling needle $4M - I figure a Leafs run-to-the-finals with 3 home games per round would gross about $171M CAD - but then add concessions, merchandise, etc...it would be close!).

 

[Adam da bomb]

I can't see the cap rising that much. I don't think we come in quite at the high total either. Some players will hit those high #'s but I expect the total will be somewhere between the mid & high guesstimates. Lets say around 82-83 mil.

The point here is not really to get perfect estimates. It is to paint a picture of the overall cap situation. That situation now is that we can't make any expensive additions without deleting cap hit somewhere else.

Copp and Armia around the mid numbers are good value, I think. The savings for replacing them with cheaper contracts are not that large. Not worth the drop in performance, IMO. If you also consider the difference in trade return, I would rather move 1 big contract.

So either a Wheeler or a Buff. After all, I can't imagine you suggesting moving Laine. Those are our expensive toys. Wheeler is much more moveable, tho he won't be, than Buff. After all, you just move Armia into your top 9, well he will be in the top 9 next year, as Stas will no longer be here, and hope that Vesalinain is ready. We have already seen what Myers looks like in the top 4.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I believe the cap is projected to be 80-82M for the 2018-19 season. Could very well be 85+ for 2019-20.

NHL Salary Cap Could Significantly Increase for 2018-19 | Spectors Hockey

The last range quoted by the NHL was $78-$82M. So people are just using $80 as a rough guide. It could be higher. A lot depends on what escalator they choose

^ What he said.

I don't think it is prudent to spend like Chiarelli on the assumption that the cap will increase at a very high rate. And don't forget potential bonuses.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So either a Wheeler or a Buff. After all, I can't imagine you suggesting moving Laine. Those are our expensive toys. Wheeler is much more moveable, tho he won't be, than Buff. After all, you just move Armia into your top 9, well he will be in the top 9 next year, as Stas will no longer be here, and hope that Vesalinain is ready. We have already seen what Myers looks like in the top 4.

Wheeler and Buff would be likely candidates but they are not the only big contracts. Kulikov and Perreault are both over 4 mil, Little over 5. Ehlers and Scheifele are at 6+ and by the '20 season Laine, Connor, Morrissey and Trouba might all be 5+ so there are lots of possibilities.

I don't want to part with any of those unless their play declines sharply. There are going to be some very hard decisions for Chevy.

Emotionally, I find the thought of moving Trouba easiest due to his lack of enthusiasm for Winnipeg and/or the Jets. I'm not blaming him or mad at him. I'll assume that he has perfectly valid reasons of his own. But it does make it easier to contemplate moving him. Unfortunately he leaves a big hole in our D that Buff will be steadily less able to fill as he ages. But if the return is right it might make sense from a hockey perspective and it would certainly ease the cap situation. It all depends on getting that right return.

 

[cbcwpg]

Win the Cup this season and next... then keep your young "core" guys ( Laine, Ehlers, Scheifele, Conner, Roslovic, Trouba, Morrissey, Hellebuyck ) .... blow the rest up and start all over.

There is no more dynasty building in the NHL because teams can't afford to keep a roster totally intact for 5 or 6 years. The Cap doesn't allow for that.

 

[GaryPoppins]

Win the Cup this season and next... then keep your young "core" guys ( Laine, Ehlers, Scheifele, Conner, Roslovic, Trouba, Morrissey, Hellebuyck ) .... blow the rest up and start all over.

There is no more dynasty building in the NHL because teams can't afford to keep a roster totally intact for 5 or 6 years. The Cap doesn't allow for that.

Pittsburgh would likely disagree with you.

I do understand, though. I think this summer is going to be super interesting. First domino will be Trouba....

 

[cbcwpg]

Pittsburgh would likely disagree with you.

I do understand, though. I think this summer is going to be super interesting. First domino will be Trouba....

Yes Pittsburgh has done very well and interesting... it's like the Jets cap wise are now where Pittsburgh was 5 years ago. Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist, Letang all signed and are now in there 4th and 5th years on long term contracts. This is what we need to do with our young core, but to do that it may mean moving guys like Little, Wheeler, Buff, Enstrom, Mason, etc. Not all of them, but some.

Laine alone is going to get paid a tonne in his next contract.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Win the Cup this season and next... then keep your young "core" guys ( Laine, Ehlers, Scheifele, Conner, Roslovic, Trouba, Morrissey, Hellebuyck ) .... blow the rest up and start all over.

There is no more dynasty building in the NHL because teams can't afford to keep a roster totally intact for 5 or 6 years. The Cap doesn't allow for that.

Pens might have something to say about that.

I think a steady turnover of older, big contract players is the way to go. We could move 1/yr, recover their cap and get something good in return. The hard part is picking which one to move each year.

Who would go this year? From some angles Wheeler makes sense. But he is just hitting his peak in his 31 YO season. Matty P? Currently cheap at the price and adds so much to the "pack of wolves" style that I can't see it yet. I think he will not have a very long career though. Give it 1 more year. Buff? Can't do it till after the draft. Timing may not be ideal to get a good return. If Trouba is signed Buff might be the one though. That leaves Myers in the top 4 for some time. I'm not wild about that. I think that just leaves Little. Trade him just before his new contract even kicks in? Trade him to sign Stastny? Not sure that makes sense. Certainly can't trade him without getting a replacement 2C, preferably with experience.

I think Chevy is going to have to make some very difficult choices on a regular basis from now on. It will be interesting.

 

[surixon]

Pens might have something to say about that.

I think a steady turnover of older, big contract players is the way to go. We could move 1/yr, recover their cap and get something good in return. The hard part is picking which one to move each year.

Who would go this year? From some angles Wheeler makes sense. But he is just hitting his peak in his 31 YO season. Matty P? Currently cheap at the price and adds so much to the "pack of wolves" style that I can't see it yet. I think he will not have a very long career though. Give it 1 more year. Buff? Can't do it till after the draft. Timing may not be ideal to get a good return. If Trouba is signed Buff might be the one though. That leaves Myers in the top 4 for some time. I'm not wild about that. I think that just leaves Little. Trade him just before his new contract even kicks in? Trade him to sign Stastny? Not sure that makes sense. Certainly can't trade him without getting a replacement 2C, preferably with experience.

I think Chevy is going to have to make some very difficult choices on a regular basis from now on. It will be interesting.

From my projections you can get by for the next two years by moving out Myers, Mason and Toby. Thats 15 million in cap space and their corresponding roles can be filled by two players in ELC or low value deals in Poolman and Niku and 1 to 1.5 million on a FA BU.

 

[Weezeric]

Yes Pittsburgh has done very well and interesting... it's like the Jets cap wise are now where Pittsburgh was 5 years ago. Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist, Letang all signed and are now in there 4th and 5th years on long term contracts. This is what we need to do with our young core, but to do that it may mean moving guys like Little, Wheeler, Buff, Enstrom, Mason, etc. Not all of them, but some.

Laine alone is going to get paid a tonne in his next contract.

It's likely that in 2-3 years, scheifele and Ehlers will be getting paid the going rate of a decent 2nd liner. If the jets can get morrisey and trouba signed to long term deals this summer, the cap might rise at a rate that allows most of this team to be kept together.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

From my projections you can get by for the next two years by moving out Myers, Mason and Toby. Thats 15 million in cap space and their corresponding roles can be filled by two players in ELC or low value deals in Poolman and Niku and 1 to 1.5 million on a FA BU.

That's a very poor way to calculate it. Minus x dollars here, plus y dollars there. You really need to make up a roster of 23 players and total it up because that 15 mil disappears in no time flat.

I'll post my tables again. Then, if you don't like some of my projections you can refer to specific changes that would free up some money. Please feel free to tell me if I am way out of line anywhere.

2018-2019:

Low Mid High Bonus Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $5,600,000 $5,600,000 $5,600,000 Perreault $4,125,000 $4,125,000 $4,125,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $925,000 $925,000 $925,000 $2,650,000 Connor $925,000 $925,000 $925,000 $850,000 Copp $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 Dano $875,000 $900,000 $925,000 Lowry $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 Armia $1,400,000 $1,800,000 $2,200,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $894,166 $212,500 Tanev $800,000 $850,000 $900,000 13 Forwards $36,460,832 $37,435,832 $38,410,832 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Myers $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Chiarot $1,400,000 $1,400,000 $1,400,000 Trouba $5,250,000 $5,600,000 $6,000,000 Morrissey $3,000,000 $5,350,000 $5,750,000 Poolman $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $775,000 $182,500 8 Defense $28,858,333 $31,758,333 $32,758,333 Hellebuyck $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 Mason $4,100,000 $4,100,000 $4,100,000 2 Goalies $8,100,000 $8,600,000 $9,100,000 23 Players Stuart buy-out $583,333 $583,333 $583,333 $74,002,498 $78,377,498 $80,852,498 $3,895,000 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2019-2020:

Low Mid High Bonus Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $6,000,000 $6,500,000 $7,000,000 Perreault $4,125,000 $4,125,000 $4,125,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $3,000,000 $6,500,000 $7,500,000 Connor $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $5,500,000 Copp $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 Dano $875,000 $900,000 $925,000 Lowry $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 Armia $1,400,000 $1,800,000 $2,200,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $894,166 $212,500 Tanev $750,000 $850,000 $900,000 Lemieux $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 14 Forwards $42,060,832 $47,485,832 $53,060,832 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Trouba $5,250,000 $5,600,000 $6,000,000 Morrissey $3,000,000 $5,350,000 $5,750,000 Poolman $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $775,000 $60,000 xxx $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,500,000 7 Defense $22,958,333 $26,108,333 $27,358,333 Hellebuyck $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 xxx $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,500,000 2 Goalies $5,000,000 $5,750,000 $6,500,000 23 Players Total $70,019,165 $79,344,165 $86,919,165 $272,500 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I have Toby out in the first year and both Myers and Mason out in the second, along with Chiarot.

We don't know what the cap will go to yet. I'm trying to be a little conservative and expecting 80 and 83 mil. PA escalator and $C fluctuations could still make changes there, either way.

That 2020 low estimate is not realistic. It bridges everybody bridgeable and cheaps out on everyone else. I don't think that even Melnyk could do that. But you need to take a starting position.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Wheeler and Buff would be likely candidates but they are not the only big contracts. Kulikov and Perreault are both over 4 mil, Little over 5. Ehlers and Scheifele are at 6+ and by the '20 season Laine, Connor, Morrissey and Trouba might all be 5+ so there are lots of possibilities.

I don't want to part with any of those unless their play declines sharply. There are going to be some very hard decisions for Chevy.

Emotionally, I find the thought of moving Trouba easiest due to his lack of enthusiasm for Winnipeg and/or the Jets. I'm not blaming him or mad at him. I'll assume that he has perfectly valid reasons of his own. But it does make it easier to contemplate moving him. Unfortunately he leaves a big hole in our D that Buff will be steadily less able to fill as he ages. But if the return is right it might make sense from a hockey perspective and it would certainly ease the cap situation. It all depends on getting that right return.

Schief is cheap. 6mil 1c. If Vesalinian is all ppl say he is Wheeler is the most replaceable and that saves us 7mil. Then kulikov and replace him with much cheaper Niku. 11 mil saved. + Mase being gone. 15 mil saved. Bridge Connor. Replace stas with Roslo. Lowry as your 3rd c and it's much cheaper to find a 4 c

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Schief is cheap. 6mil 1c. If Vesalinian is all ppl say he is Wheeler is the most replaceable and that saves us 7mil. Then kulikov and replace him with much cheaper Niku. 11 mil saved. + Mase being gone. 15 mil saved. Bridge Connor. Replace stas with Roslo. Lowry as your 3rd c and it's much cheaper to find a 4 c

The object isn't simply to reduce the cap hit. It is to stay under the cap while retaining as many of the players as possible. KV is still a long way from replacing Wheeler. He probably plays LW in the NHL. Kulikov still has another 2 years on his contract. I still say he is overpaid, so I don't think he is easily traded. Possible, but not easy. If Niku replaces Kuli, then who replaces Enstrom? I've already bridged Connor and never had Stastny on the roster past this year. Lowry is 3C, Copp is 4C.

If we trade Wheeler after this season we get a good return. We solve our cap problems for a few years. We have enough RW's to fill out the roster with decent players - but we are not as strong without Wheeler as we are with him.

Besides his production, we miss his experience and his leadership. I expect we still make the playoffs next year without him. I'm not at all certain we could still contend for the cup. The return is probably mostly futures. OTOH, it might allow us to keep Stastny for a while. On the other, other hand, would Stastny want to stay here without Wheeler?

 

[surixon]

That's a very poor way to calculate it. Minus x dollars here, plus y dollars there. You really need to make up a roster of 23 players and total it up because that 15 mil disappears in no time flat.

I'll post my tables again. Then, if you don't like some of my projections you can refer to specific changes that would free up some money. Please feel free to tell me if I am way out of line anywhere.

2018-2019:

Low Mid High Bonus Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $5,600,000 $5,600,000 $5,600,000 Perreault $4,125,000 $4,125,000 $4,125,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $925,000 $925,000 $925,000 $2,650,000 Connor $925,000 $925,000 $925,000 $850,000 Copp $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 Dano $875,000 $900,000 $925,000 Lowry $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 Armia $1,400,000 $1,800,000 $2,200,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $894,166 $212,500 Tanev $800,000 $850,000 $900,000 13 Forwards $36,460,832 $37,435,832 $38,410,832 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Myers $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Chiarot $1,400,000 $1,400,000 $1,400,000 Trouba $5,250,000 $5,600,000 $6,000,000 Morrissey $3,000,000 $5,350,000 $5,750,000 Poolman $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $775,000 $182,500 8 Defense $28,858,333 $31,758,333 $32,758,333 Hellebuyck $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 Mason $4,100,000 $4,100,000 $4,100,000 2 Goalies $8,100,000 $8,600,000 $9,100,000 23 Players Stuart buy-out $583,333 $583,333 $583,333 $74,002,498 $78,377,498 $80,852,498 $3,895,000 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2019-2020:

Low Mid High Bonus Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $6,000,000 $6,500,000 $7,000,000 Perreault $4,125,000 $4,125,000 $4,125,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $3,000,000 $6,500,000 $7,500,000 Connor $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $5,500,000 Copp $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 Dano $875,000 $900,000 $925,000 Lowry $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 Armia $1,400,000 $1,800,000 $2,200,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $894,166 $212,500 Tanev $750,000 $850,000 $900,000 Lemieux $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 14 Forwards $42,060,832 $47,485,832 $53,060,832 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Trouba $5,250,000 $5,600,000 $6,000,000 Morrissey $3,000,000 $5,350,000 $5,750,000 Poolman $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $775,000 $60,000 xxx $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,500,000 7 Defense $22,958,333 $26,108,333 $27,358,333 Hellebuyck $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 xxx $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,500,000 2 Goalies $5,000,000 $5,750,000 $6,500,000 23 Players Total $70,019,165 $79,344,165 $86,919,165 $272,500 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I have Toby out in the first year and both Myers and Mason out in the second, along with Chiarot.

We don't know what the cap will go to yet. I'm trying to be a little conservative and expecting 80 and 83 mil. PA escalator and $C fluctuations could still make changes there, either way.

That 2020 low estimate is not realistic. It bridges everybody bridgeable and cheaps out on everyone else. I don't think that even Melnyk could do that. But you need to take a starting position.

I definitely agree that it will be tight and managing it will be tricky but I think we will be able to keep all our key players through 19-20 before real tough decisions will need to be made. Chevy will really earn his keep over the next few years.

My main point is that you need to have good cheap young players to round out the bottom of your rosters. Judging by your projections you also subscribe to that train of thought. We won't be able to allocate $10 million on a bottom pairing next year. My philosophy is you lock up your core long term (Helle, JoMo, Trouba, Chef, Laine and Ehelers) and then fit the rest in.

One thing I will say is that Chevy has staggered the contracts quite well so far so he has some flexibility. I do think we will be saying good by to another fan favorite in a couple of years all the more reason to win it all within the next three seasons.

Edit in the summer of 20-21 we will lose a player due to the expansion draft so that will likely help the cap crunch my best guess is that they leave Perrault exposed and he would likely get picked up. Kulikov is also off the books.

 

[Adam da bomb]

The object isn't simply to reduce the cap hit. It is to stay under the cap while retaining as many of the players as possible. KV is still a long way from replacing Wheeler. He probably plays LW in the NHL. Kulikov still has another 2 years on his contract. I still say he is overpaid, so I don't think he is easily traded. Possible, but not easy. If Niku replaces Kuli, then who replaces Enstrom? I've already bridged Connor and never had Stastny on the roster past this year. Lowry is 3C, Copp is 4C.

If we trade Wheeler after this season we get a good return. We solve our cap problems for a few years. We have enough RW's to fill out the roster with decent players - but we are not as strong without Wheeler as we are with him.

Besides his production, we miss his experience and his leadership. I expect we still make the playoffs next year without him. I'm not at all certain we could still contend for the cup. The return is probably mostly futures. OTOH, it might allow us to keep Stastny for a while. On the other, other hand, would Stastny want to stay here without Wheeler?

Doesn’t Connor get less than 5;5 more like 3.5 on a bridge?

 

[Gm0ney]

Doesn’t Connor get less than 5;5 more like 3.5 on a bridge?

There are low-mid-high estimates.

 

[JetsFan815]

That's a very poor way to calculate it. Minus x dollars here, plus y dollars there. You really need to make up a roster of 23 players and total it up because that 15 mil disappears in no time flat.

I'll post my tables again. Then, if you don't like some of my projections you can refer to specific changes that would free up some money. Please feel free to tell me if I am way out of line anywhere.

2018-2019:

Low Mid High Bonus Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $5,600,000 $5,600,000 $5,600,000 Perreault $4,125,000 $4,125,000 $4,125,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $925,000 $925,000 $925,000 $2,650,000 Connor $925,000 $925,000 $925,000 $850,000 Copp $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 Dano $875,000 $900,000 $925,000 Lowry $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 Armia $1,400,000 $1,800,000 $2,200,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $894,166 $212,500 Tanev $800,000 $850,000 $900,000 13 Forwards $36,460,832 $37,435,832 $38,410,832 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Myers $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Chiarot $1,400,000 $1,400,000 $1,400,000 Trouba $5,250,000 $5,600,000 $6,000,000 Morrissey $3,000,000 $5,350,000 $5,750,000 Poolman $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $775,000 $182,500 8 Defense $28,858,333 $31,758,333 $32,758,333 Hellebuyck $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 Mason $4,100,000 $4,100,000 $4,100,000 2 Goalies $8,100,000 $8,600,000 $9,100,000 23 Players Stuart buy-out $583,333 $583,333 $583,333 $74,002,498 $78,377,498 $80,852,498 $3,895,000 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2019-2020:

Low Mid High Bonus Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $6,000,000 $6,500,000 $7,000,000 Perreault $4,125,000 $4,125,000 $4,125,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $3,000,000 $6,500,000 $7,500,000 Connor $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $5,500,000 Copp $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 Dano $875,000 $900,000 $925,000 Lowry $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 Armia $1,400,000 $1,800,000 $2,200,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $894,166 $212,500 Tanev $750,000 $850,000 $900,000 Lemieux $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 14 Forwards $42,060,832 $47,485,832 $53,060,832 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Trouba $5,250,000 $5,600,000 $6,000,000 Morrissey $3,000,000 $5,350,000 $5,750,000 Poolman $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $775,000 $60,000 xxx $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,500,000 7 Defense $22,958,333 $26,108,333 $27,358,333 Hellebuyck $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000 xxx $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,500,000 2 Goalies $5,000,000 $5,750,000 $6,500,000 23 Players Total $70,019,165 $79,344,165 $86,919,165 $272,500 [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I have Toby out in the first year and both Myers and Mason out in the second, along with Chiarot.

We don't know what the cap will go to yet. I'm trying to be a little conservative and expecting 80 and 83 mil. PA escalator and $C fluctuations could still make changes there, either way.

That 2020 low estimate is not realistic. It bridges everybody bridgeable and cheaps out on everyone else. I don't think that even Melnyk could do that. But you need to take a starting position.

Hopefully the Jets can figure out a way to move Mason after this season. Not having that contract on the books really gives us a lot of breathing room to be able to afford luxaries like bringing Toby back for a season.