Line Combos: Roster Discussions

[Mortimer Snerd]

Saying that Toews was an overpayment undervalues both intangibles such as D as Toews was always a top 2 way player, and intangibles. Toews is considered a great leader.

No argument on any of your points. But I think that contract was the highest AAV in the league at the time it was signed. Is that what good 2 way centres usually get? 2 mil less would have made him easily the highest paid C who was not an elite scorer.

Obviously the Hawks wanted to reward their top players for the 3 cups. I have no problem with that. They also appear to have wanted to value both Kane and Toews equally. That was their choice but IMO, they went too far with Toews. 8x8.5 would have been one hell of a contract for a Toews type player and should have been adequate recognition for his leadership - IMO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Would really love Buff's money going to Trouba in the future. I think you could even get Trouba a bit cheaper to afford the Armias and Connors.

I think the consensus here was that Chevy paid a little more AAV to get a little less term and that it was a good trade off. 2 years in, I'm saying it still looks good because Buff is playing well and we only have 3 more years to go on that contract.

TBH though, I was beginning to have doubts earlier this year when he wasn't scoring much and his D play was less than I wanted from him.

The point remains though, that the term was good for us. If the contract turns sour at least it won't take forever to run out.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think the consensus here was that Chevy paid a little more AAV to get a little less term and that it was a good trade off. 2 years in, I'm saying it still looks good because Buff is playing well and we only have 3 more years to go on that contract.

TBH though, I was beginning to have doubts earlier this year when he wasn't scoring much and his D play was less than I wanted from him.

The point remains though, that the term was good for us. If the contract turns sour at least it won't take forever to run out.

Really Buff has played so well I would have taken a NMC for Buff at 6.8 mil.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Forwards are also expected to play D some of the time too, I would hope. Yet, Buff has not won a Norris and yet we are talking about him like he has. In terms of scoring this season he is 23rd on the list. He only has 5 goals. Whether he would have got more on the open market is a different question than whether we are getting 7mil worth of playing out of him and I would argue we are not. You said he played 20-30 games great D a 7+ mil D you expect him to at least give you 50 great D games on the season.

Of course F also play D. But the norms for D and F are different at contract time.

He is 23rd on the list. He has missed 12 games. Scoring at the same rate for those 12 games would have him in 15th place. He wasn't horrible for the other 30 games. Just not quite Norris calibre. Buff has scored at a 49 point per season pace for his career. And he still is scoring at least that high. D men who score like that get paid like he does, especially if they are also intimidating physically and effective defensively. Buff has been and is, all of that. There are debates about his defensive play. He has his warts. No one is perfect, even for 7.6 mil/yr. But the numbers support his overall effectiveness defensively despite those warts. It has been debated and discussed here endlessly and no one really denies his faults. I have no intention of going through it all again.

 

[Maukkis]

No I don't think you get it. I want Buff for 4 years at 6.8 million. You seem to think that there is a magic number he is entitled to make and so we either need to take term or money to make up that amount. I say to heck with those restrictions.

Well, there kind of is one. That would be the one Buff accepts; you either pay the price he names, or he goes elsewhere.

In this instance, 5x7.6 was the one they ended up going with. If Buff was willing to take 4x6.8, do you think Chevy would not have taken that instead?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Of course F also play D. But the norms for D and F are different at contract time.

He is 23rd on the list. He has missed 12 games. Scoring at the same rate for those 12 games would have him in 15th place. He wasn't horrible for the other 30 games. Just not quite Norris calibre. Buff has scored at a 49 point per season pace for his career. And he still is scoring at least that high. D men who score like that get paid like he does, especially if they are also intimidating physically and effective defensively. Buff has been and is, all of that. There are debates about his defensive play. He has his warts. No one is perfect, even for 7.6 mil/yr. But the numbers support his overall effectiveness defensively despite those warts. It has been debated and discussed here endlessly and no one really denies his faults. I have no intention of going through it all again.

If you have no intention of going through it all again, why start the conversation instead of just letting the comment go on bye? By the way the guy at the top of the league Klinberg is getting 4.2 mil. The point totals are up this year and yet Buff's numbers have not risen to an equal height. The Jets as a team's numbers have gone up. The reason why Buff looks so effective this year is because Helly bails everyone out. No argument can be made about his intimidation level he is one scary mofo.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Really Buff has played so well I would have taken a NMC for Buff at 6.8 mil.

I don't get that. ???

Do you mean give him the full NMC for less money? I'm not sure he would have taken any less without more term. And I think it is good that we have the option of moving him in the future, even if he would be hard to move.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Well, there kind of is one. That would be the one Buff accepts; you either pay the price he names, or he goes elsewhere.

In this instance, 5x7.6 was the one they ended up going with. If Buff was willing to take 4x6.8, do you think Chevy would not have taken that instead?

That's the number I would have offered. If he didn't take it I really would have walked as I think Buff is overpaid. I would have even gone 6.8x6 years.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I don't get that. ???

Do you mean give him the full NMC for less money? I'm not sure he would have taken any less without more term. And I think it is good that we have the option of moving him in the future, even if he would be hard to move.

So you do get it as the second thing you asked nailed it. What he would take and what I think he is worth is different in this case. He wins and I call him overpriced and everyone wins.

 

[Maukkis]

That's the number I would have offered. If he didn't take it I really would have walked as I think Buff is overpaid. I would have even gone 6.8x6 years.

Fair enough. You could argue whether Buff would have taken 6.8x6, but your initial offer would probably have been a no, leaving us with no Buff and a far worse team.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Fair enough. You could argue whether Buff would have taken 6.8x6, but your initial offer would probably have been a no, leaving us with no Buff and a far worse team.

Unless you got something really good in the trade.

 

[Maukkis]

Unless you got something really good in the trade.

Buff was approaching UFA, so that's unlikely.

 

[Adam da bomb]

You could argue that Buff's scoring is down this year. After all he is near his old point total but as the Jets have scored a lot more as a team the percentage of total points the team scores that he can say he played a part in has declined. You can also say that the reason why the D have all looked so good is Helly. That said Buff has looked great the last 30 games. 30 games does not make up a season though.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So you do get it as the second thing you asked nailed it. What he would take and what I think he is worth is different in this case. He wins and I call him overpriced and everyone wins.

I wasn't sure.

Well, that's fair enough. We aren't that far apart on the AAV. You just think he is a little overpaid. There are probably plenty of others who would agree with you.

Actually, if you recall, I think I said that a lot of people thought he got a little extra AAV in exchange for that 5 year term.
5x7.6 = 38 mil
6x6.8 = 40.8 mil
So if you would be OK with paying him an extra year it actually costs a little more. And if his play deteriorates he is an anchor for an extra year. OTOH, if his play remains strong we get that last year for only 2.8 mil, a bargain.

 

[ulf]

The evolution of Buff
3/4 winger PP SPECIALIST that destroyed Canucks and Luongo
Big tough so so defenceman
Rover
Bad forward
Good Buff Bad Buff Terrible Buff
High scoring intimidating dman

Do too much Buff
Overworked Buff
Billionaire Buff that plays less O and more D....thank goodness
Quality Dmen worth all the money for 5 year term....thank you Buff

 

[Howard Chuck]

14 team no trade list after this year. His contract is moveable. It wasn't a horrible overpayment given that fact, and the contract length. He's still an extremely useful player, and he left money on the table as a UFA.

If his contract prevents us from signing someone more important in future, move him.

If he keeps playing the style of game that he has been lately I’m more than happy to have him remain a jet.

 

[brock0791]

Why do people keep talking about Buff like he's signed till 2024.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Why do people keep talking about Buff like he's signed till 2024.

He's signed until '21, and his NMC changes to a 14 team NTC starting next year. His contract really is not that bad for what he's providing.

 

[Easternbull]

Buff has been very good 5v5 this year but IMHO he still is not the best choice on the first pp. Morrisey would rack up assists and goals if given the chance, buff hesitates too much when we win draws cleanly instead of feeding you know who and keeps rattling the glass with his shots, more then any other 1 pp dman in the league..

 

[10Ducky10]

Buff is qbing a top 5 PP unit and people still complain.

 

[kelsier]

You could argue that Buff's scoring is down this year. After all he is near his old point total but as the Jets have scored a lot more as a team the percentage of total points the team scores that he can say he played a part in has declined. You can also say that the reason why the D have all looked so good is Helly. That said Buff has looked great the last 30 games. 30 games does not make up a season though.

I think he has looked great should we approach this topic from the viewpoint of old Buff versus the now Buff. He still has his brain farts on the ice, but to a lesser extent. Yet for a #1D that "great" argument no longer applies. Think Buff is closer to a #2D than a #1D looking at the league standards and he is in for a hefty paycheck. The problem with the team is that it doesn't have a true number one defenceman, so instead Buff is forced to adapt the role although he has been getting much more help this season compared to last season. Could Trouba turn into one given time? Perhaps. Will he even want to stay with the team? We don't know, but it's not looking too promising.

Buff has been very good 5v5 this year but IMHO he still is not the best choice on the first pp. Morrisey would rack up assists and goals if given the chance, buff hesitates too much when we win draws cleanly instead of feeding you know who and keeps rattling the glass with his shots, more then any other 1 pp dman in the league..

This indeed. He isn't a great passer and I've said the same thing before, on a powerplay you'd want someone on the blueline who was capable of executing sharp and accurate passes to Laine for one-timers. When Buff even attempts to make a pass it looks like he's afraid to execute it, so instead of getting a fast tape-to-tape he just taps in a really slow pass, giving the netminder almost enough time to skate from one post to another and back and even that is rare as most of the times he misses the window. This leaves him no alternative than to shoot at the traffic with fingers crossed (how many times has that worked?) or let Wheelers handle the QB'ing (is what usually happens). I just cannot fathom why they haven't even tried Morrisey there who looks like he has the ability to be a great puck moving defenceman with QB capabilities. Think this could again be one of those vets > youngsters issue that P.Mo is well known for. Now I'm not sure how great Morrisey's shooting abilities are but at the end it's not that important cause there is one world class shooter on the slot and half a dozen other guys who can score. With Laine on the board I think the Jets have the potential to be the 1st powerplay team in the league instead of being 3rd and it might not need more than one piece replaced.

 

[10Ducky10]

So, anyone besides Buff as long as they pass it to Laine?

 

[ulf]

Pretty highly ranked PP to CHANGE????
Put someone else on that PP and their overall performance (TOI) could slip.
Trust the coach he may know more than us.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Could Trouba turn into one given time?

A comparison with the "archetypical" #1D shows that he's already there. From last year:

He exceeds the #1D archetype in all categories other than TOI.

Versus Doughty:

Trouba (when healthy) is our #1D, which pushes Buff into some softer minutes. His contract is not an issue, and even if it was, he only has 3 years left, and his NMC is now a 14 team NTC.

We are a better team with him in the lineup than without.

 

[kelsier]

A comparison with the "archetypical" #1D shows that he's already there. From last year:

View attachment 105553

He exceeds the #1D archetype in all categories other than TOI.

Versus Doughty:

View attachment 105555

Trouba (when healthy) is our #1D, which pushes Buff into some softer minutes. His contract is not an issue, and even if it was, he only has 3 years left, and his NMC is now a 14 team NTC.

We are a better team with him in the lineup than without.

Well the charts shown can be interpreted in such a way but there are factors to consider even there. How much goals, how many assists and even how many shots generated by a defender are largely affected by the team that surrounds the player. The Jets happens to be one of the best teams in the league and hasn't faced major scoring problems for years now. This can inflate player statistics. I'm not saying Trouba couldn't be #1D, but rather that we will see whether he is or is not when Trouba unseats Buff from the role and gets TOI accordingly. I hope he gets there and that the team can find a way to sign him long term. Right now one can but wait and see what happens.

As for contracts, I think there is a potential for Buff's to become a problem if they want to keep everyone and especially if they are looking into acquiring that much needed second line center (assuming Stastny will be gone after this year). Just like there exists risks with any other player with a high cap hit should they deviate from the roles they are assigned to. Signing Little for the next six years closed some of that open space left to maneuver and the ability to make moves. That's why I've been hoping Roslovic would tie the loose end internally and become that much needed piece/player in his natural position rather sooner than later.