You have always had some interesting hot takes. And posts like "very very bad cap situation" gives off a very chicken little vibe.
Also, don't ask people to correct you when you didn't stake anything to your broad claim. You said it will be very very bad... prove it. Paint the picture with the numbers.
Let’s assume Current Cap is $75m. Let’s also end the season, and assume Chytil and Andersson make the team.
Forwards:
$19.31m committed to Zibanejad, Kreider, Zuccarello, Fast, Buchnevich, Chytil, Andersson (add Letterri for an extra .925 if you want); 7/12 forwards (maybe 7/11 forwards); $55.69 remaining.
RFA Forwards:
Estimated $12.5m total to re-sign Hayes, Miller, Nieves, Vesey (listed alphabetically, allocate funds as needed); 11/12 or 11/11 forwards filled, (is this forward core good enough?); $43.19 remaining.
Defense:
$22.91 committed to Shattenkirk, Staal, McDonagh, Smith, DeAngelo, Kampfer (6/6; Kampfer healthy scratch or AHL); $20.28 remaining
RFA Skjei:
Estimated $5m (I think he will sign between 4.5 and 5.5 so I am splitting the difference); defense full; $15.28 remaining
Girardi Penalty:
$3.61m; $11.67 remaining
Lundqvist:
$8.5m; $3.17 remaining
Backup Goalie:
Estimated $1m; $2.17m
Okay great! $2.17m in the green but Chytil and Andersson replacing Nash and Grabner may not be an upgrade, Lundqvist is a year older, and who knows how the defense holds up.
Next summer is the problem because the team is capped out at $72.83m in guaranteed money. Enter Cap Hell. The Rangers now have three of their most important players expiring at the same time and cannot pay all of them.
$72.83m committed minus ($4.7m+$4.5m+$.925m) equals $62.705m to resign McDonagh. Zuccarello and Buchnevich. That is an average of $4.098m that the Rangers can offer each player. They are at the mercy of how much the cap goes up. They can create some wiggle room by buying out Staal but those Cap penalties are going to stack up. Smith is also depreciating fast and they may need to move him sooner than later.
So they can move the players before the deadline while they have more value, or sell them for less next season as rentals because they have delayed the inevitable. Buchnevich has outplayed any bridge contract and the KHL may come knocking. McDonagh and Zuccarello also stand to make a lot. I think they can get Buchnevich done (maybe Arvidsson contract is comparable?) but I don’t see a way they are keeping both McDonagh and Zuccarello. Which is why they should move one of them at this deadline.