Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part XI: We can read between the lines

Status
Not open for further replies.

YoSoyLalo

me reading HF
Oct 8, 2010
79,323
16,780
www.gofundme.com
If we do trade for a center, I hope it's a guy who can feed off sheltered ice time. With how Hayes has looked in the defensive role so far, I'd rather not add a 'defensive' center.

Would LOVE to get Sam Reinhart but I suspect it'd take Skjei. Which is a definite no from me.
 

DanielBrassard

It's all so tiresome
May 6, 2014
22,416
20,014
PA from SI
The Rangers are going to be in significant Cap hell if they re-sign any of their UFAs and the team stays as is.

They really need to bail on that Smith contract ASAP. Trade him for best available draft pick fast. They aren’t going to be able to bridge Buchnevich if he keeps up what he is doing, and I still don’t think there is any chance they can afford Zuccarello or McDonagh’s extension, especially not both of them. Time to trade is before the deadline.
The cap situation really isn't that bad, especially if Chytil or Andersson can be a middle-six center for next season.
 

Savant

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Oct 3, 2013
36,500
10,479
The cap situation really isn't that bad, especially if Chytil or Andersson can be a middle-six center for next season.
The cap situation is very very bad. They have four RFAs to sign and the only contracts coming up in 2019 are Buchnevich, McDonagh and Zuccarello. That’s not even counting the cap penalties from Girardi and possible Staal buy outs. It is going to get grim quick.
 

Alluckks

Gabriel Perreault Fan Account
Sponsor
Nov 2, 2011
7,589
7,403
I would really like a move for Galchenyuk this season. Then if Chytil or Andersson (or both?) make the team next year Hayes can move to wing or be used in a trade.
 

Alluckks

Gabriel Perreault Fan Account
Sponsor
Nov 2, 2011
7,589
7,403
The cap situation is very very bad. They have four RFAs to sign and the only contracts coming up in 2019 are Buchnevich, McDonagh and Zuccarello. That’s not even counting the cap penalties from Girardi and possible Staal buy outs. It is going to get grim quick.
Your take on the cap situation is bad
 

DanielBrassard

It's all so tiresome
May 6, 2014
22,416
20,014
PA from SI
The cap situation is very very bad. They have four RFAs to sign and the only contracts coming up in 2019 are Buchnevich, McDonagh and Zuccarello. That’s not even counting the cap penalties from Girardi and possible Staal buy outs. It is going to get grim quick.
It really isn't. With a 78M cap and Miller at 5.5M, Hayes at 5M, Skjei at 4.5M, Vesey at 1.5M, defense is the same, except ADA replaces Holden. Backup is Georgiev. We have 5.3M in cap space, with 11 forwards, 7 defenseman, and 2 goalies.
 

Savant

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Oct 3, 2013
36,500
10,479
It really isn't. With a 78M cap and Miller at 5.5M, Hayes at 5M, Skjei at 4.5M, Vesey at 1.5M, defense is the same, except ADA replaces Holden. Backup is Georgiev. We have 5.3M in cap space, with 11 forwards, 7 defenseman, and 2 goalies.
And what happens next season?
 

NYR Viper

Registered User
Sep 9, 2007
46,906
16,622
Jacksonville, FL
Galchenyuk would still be my target although I fear what they would ask for. With Price out for another couple of weeks they could really tank.

Also of note, Kekelainen was at the Ranger game last week. Kind of odd. Now the Rangers send 2 scouts to their game? It may be Columbus. Odd to trade within the division but there is history between the 2 teams.
 

RGY

Kreid or Die
Jul 18, 2005
24,690
13,910
Long Island, NY
The cap situation is very very bad. They have four RFAs to sign and the only contracts coming up in 2019 are Buchnevich, McDonagh and Zuccarello. That’s not even counting the cap penalties from Girardi and possible Staal buy outs. It is going to get grim quick.
A little bit of an overreaction. For the last 4-5 years, every year, people say the cap situation is going to be a huge problem in the upcoming offseason(s). Yet, every year management seems to figure it out.

I don't see this being any different. The most worst case scenario is they have to make the difficult decision on trading one of Mac/Zucc, but not both. They could even re-sign Nash if he takes a team friendly deal which he very well might. The money you save on trading Zucc can be applied to re-signing Mac and Buch. They would just have to draft a winger in the 1st round imo next year.
 

Savant

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Oct 3, 2013
36,500
10,479
Who knows, alot of things can change in 2 seasons.
And there you go.

Even if your numbers are right you are assuming the cap goes up and the RFA numbers are right. I don’t know if you accounted for the Staal and Girardi penalties or not either.
 

Trxjw

Retired.
May 8, 2007
28,334
11,204
Land of no calls..
I’m still giving them another week or two before I’m ready to judge them. I’d still rather make hockey trades than buy. We need to get more assets somehow

I always try to take Brooks with a huge grain of salt. That being said, if Bobby Mac, Friedman, etc, were correct about the Rangers being ready to make some big moves and look towards next season, but are now instead considering a playoff run, then it's a bit concerning. Evaluating the team week to week like that makes it hard to believe Gorton has a real plan.

That being said, it's impossible to know what is going on behind the scenes. They could very well be eyeing the post season, while still looking to get younger and add picks / prospects in the process.
 

DanielBrassard

It's all so tiresome
May 6, 2014
22,416
20,014
PA from SI
And there you go.

Even if your numbers are right you are assuming the cap goes up and the RFA numbers are right. I don’t know if you accounted for the Staal and Girardi penalties or not either.
I didn't buyout Staal, if I did, cap space goes over 9M for next season. I think the RFA numbers are fair market value at this point, give or take a few hundred thousand. Unless the canadian dollar crashes, why wouldn't the cap go up
 

RGY

Kreid or Die
Jul 18, 2005
24,690
13,910
Long Island, NY
Galchenyuk would still be my target although I fear what they would ask for. With Price out for another couple of weeks they could really tank.

Also of note, Kekelainen was at the Ranger game last week. Kind of odd. Now the Rangers send 2 scouts to their game? It may be Columbus. Odd to trade within the division but there is history between the 2 teams.
Galchenyuk is a situation where I would be interested in adding him, but have no interest in giving up anything significant for him with the way he is playing right now. Brooks nixed any chance that Kreider and Miller were a part of the discussions a couple of weeks. I am not even really interested in dealing Zucc for him. The team is starting to come together. That only leaves prospects and draft picks then. We're not going to deal a 1st round pick for Galchenyuk who could easily be a mediocre player moving forward. I don't think we have a package willing to be dealt to them. Would they want Holden, Graves, and a 2nd round pick? Maybe that is the starting point. Aren't they looking for a defenseman?

I don't see a match for a Galchenyuk trade.
 

Savant

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Oct 3, 2013
36,500
10,479
I didn't buyout Staal, if I did, cap space goes over 9M for next season. I think the RFA numbers are fair market value at this point, give or take a few hundred thousand. Unless the canadian dollar crashes, why wouldn't the cap go up
I don’t know that your math is right. I don’t mean this as an insult, I just get a very different result. Did you keep Smith as well?
 

Alluckks

Gabriel Perreault Fan Account
Sponsor
Nov 2, 2011
7,589
7,403
And there you go.

Even if your numbers are right you are assuming the cap goes up and the RFA numbers are right. I don’t know if you accounted for the Staal and Girardi penalties or not either.
You have always had some interesting hot takes. And posts like "very very bad cap situation" gives off a very chicken little vibe.

Also, don't ask people to correct you when you didn't stake anything to your broad claim. You said it will be very very bad... prove it. Paint the picture with the numbers.
 

NYR Viper

Registered User
Sep 9, 2007
46,906
16,622
Jacksonville, FL
Galchenyuk is a situation where I would be interested in adding him, but have no interest in giving up anything significant for him with the way he is playing right now. Brooks nixed any chance that Kreider and Miller were a part of the discussions a couple of weeks. I am not even really interested in dealing Zucc for him. The team is starting to come together. That only leaves prospects and draft picks then. We're not going to deal a 1st round pick for Galchenyuk who could easily be a mediocre player moving forward. I don't think we have a package willing to be dealt to them. Would they want Holden, Graves, and a 2nd round pick? Maybe that is the starting point. Aren't they looking for a defenseman?

I don't see a match for a Galchenyuk trade.

One guy who is never mentioned is Jesper Fast. I wonder if Montreal would have interest in him. Or Vesey.
 

RGY

Kreid or Die
Jul 18, 2005
24,690
13,910
Long Island, NY
One guy who is never mentioned is Jesper Fast. I wonder if Montreal would have interest in him. Or Vesey.
Aside from the fact that Fast really costs nothing compared to what he provides to this team, he also a favorite of AV's. If there is one guy that I could almost say would definitely not be traded, its him. AV has him out there to finish every game when they are ahead. He is a great PKer. Gets in on the forecheck, goes to the dirty areas, cycles, and throws his weight around. I just don't see him moving.

I am not ready to give up on Vesey yet.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Avery16

NYR Viper

Registered User
Sep 9, 2007
46,906
16,622
Jacksonville, FL
Aside from the fact that Fast really costs nothing compared to what he provides to this team, he also a favorite of AV's. If there is one guy that I could almost say would definitely not be traded, its him. AV has him out there to finish every game when they are ahead. He is a great PKer. Gets in on the forecheck, goes to the dirty areas, cycles, and throws his weight around. I just don't see him moving.

I am not ready to give up on Vesey yet.

Trading Vesey isn’t giving up on him.

The Habs are clearly trying to get to where the Rangers were 4 seasons ago. They feel their window with their core should probably be opening right now. How much would Bergevin pay to get a guy like Zuccarelo. I’d be curious.
 

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
22,580
12,822
I always try to take Brooks with a huge grain of salt. That being said, if Bobby Mac, Friedman, etc, were correct about the Rangers being ready to make some big moves and look towards next season, but are now instead considering a playoff run, then it's a bit concerning. Evaluating the team week to week like that makes it hard to believe Gorton has a real plan.

That being said, it's impossible to know what is going on behind the scenes. They could very well be eyeing the post season, while still looking to get younger and add picks / prospects in the process.
I think your last sentence nails it. That’s Gorton’s rebuild on the fly
 

Savant

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Oct 3, 2013
36,500
10,479
You have always had some interesting hot takes. And posts like "very very bad cap situation" gives off a very chicken little vibe.

Also, don't ask people to correct you when you didn't stake anything to your broad claim. You said it will be very very bad... prove it. Paint the picture with the numbers.

Let’s assume Current Cap is $75m. Let’s also end the season, and assume Chytil and Andersson make the team.

Forwards:
$19.31m committed to Zibanejad, Kreider, Zuccarello, Fast, Buchnevich, Chytil, Andersson (add Letterri for an extra .925 if you want); 7/12 forwards (maybe 7/11 forwards); $55.69 remaining.

RFA Forwards:
Estimated $12.5m total to re-sign Hayes, Miller, Nieves, Vesey (listed alphabetically, allocate funds as needed); 11/12 or 11/11 forwards filled, (is this forward core good enough?); $43.19 remaining.

Defense:
$22.91 committed to Shattenkirk, Staal, McDonagh, Smith, DeAngelo, Kampfer (6/6; Kampfer healthy scratch or AHL); $20.28 remaining

RFA Skjei:
Estimated $5m (I think he will sign between 4.5 and 5.5 so I am splitting the difference); defense full; $15.28 remaining

Girardi Penalty:
$3.61m; $11.67 remaining

Lundqvist:
$8.5m; $3.17 remaining

Backup Goalie:
Estimated $1m; $2.17m

Okay great! $2.17m in the green but Chytil and Andersson replacing Nash and Grabner may not be an upgrade, Lundqvist is a year older, and who knows how the defense holds up.

Next summer is the problem because the team is capped out at $72.83m in guaranteed money. Enter Cap Hell. The Rangers now have three of their most important players expiring at the same time and cannot pay all of them.

$72.83m committed minus ($4.7m+$4.5m+$.925m) equals $62.705m to resign McDonagh. Zuccarello and Buchnevich. That is an average of $4.098m that the Rangers can offer each player. They are at the mercy of how much the cap goes up. They can create some wiggle room by buying out Staal but those Cap penalties are going to stack up. Smith is also depreciating fast and they may need to move him sooner than later.

So they can move the players before the deadline while they have more value, or sell them for less next season as rentals because they have delayed the inevitable. Buchnevich has outplayed any bridge contract and the KHL may come knocking. McDonagh and Zuccarello also stand to make a lot. I think they can get Buchnevich done (maybe Arvidsson contract is comparable?) but I don’t see a way they are keeping both McDonagh and Zuccarello. Which is why they should move one of them at this deadline.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->